Would you buy an EV for the long term?

Discussion in 'Hybrid, PHEV & EV Electric Cars Forum' started by ajdj1, Jul 20, 2017.


    1. Alan CD

      Alan CD
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      These are the issue I was trying to put across but without success.

      Mention lithium-ion batteries and sub-zero temperatures in the same sentence seems to lead to comments unrelated to batteries and cold weather.

      I quite understand though, if I'd forked out a large sum of money for a brand new car my response to 'negative' issues on that car would be the same.
       
    2. GadgetObsessed

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      But that video doesn't prove anything either. He has no starting value so any current test value is simply measured against a theoretical starting point.

      The 1.5% figure I quoted was produced by someone else who did a similar test to the one in the video i.e. used a component battery from a Tesla and measured its capacity t the start and then a couple of years later.

      My brother works as a power engineer and works on things such as large UPS systems - imagine Tesla Power Walls but on a much larger scale. Their models estimate an ageing effect of 2% for Lithium Ion batteries. So on that basis Tesla are doing quite well.
       
    3. gangzoom

      gangzoom
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      No truth is no one knows how good/bad battery degradation will be in EVs as no one has any real life experience and its not something that can be modeled. How batteries are used in an EV is very different from a powerwall form.

      Real life data is coming through, Tesla have been building the S since 2012 and Roadster longer and real life data suggests degradation woudlnt be an issue for most owners.

      But none that should worry you, as unless you have spent your own haed earned cash on an EV its nothing more than an academic exercise. For whats it worth am so un worried about battery degredation am considering buying a used 3 year old Model S for my wife with a few of keeping it for another 7-8 years :)....If it turns out the battery packs die within a few years feel free to say 'I told you so' ;).

      https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/19/show-me-the-data-the-truth-about-tesla-battery-degradation/

      Tesla Model S battery life: what the data show so far
       
      Last edited: Sep 1, 2017
    4. GadgetObsessed

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      Assuming that the cars with the highest mileage are the oldest from 2012 then the graph in that second link shows that over 5 years the battery loses around 7% - or around 1.4% per year. That is similar to what I had read before based upon someone experimenting with real Tesla batteries over a couple of years. (No modelling involved.)

      How much of that degradation is down to ageing and how much is down to the charging/discharging cycle it is difficult to know. However, Tesla's approach of only using 80% of the battery capacity by default has been reported to have significantly reduced any negative effect of charging and discharging. (For some reason charging LI batteries to 100% has a much greater effect on their life.)

      BTW - I am not in any way saying that the battery packs die within a few years. To me if the battery loses around 1.5% capacity per year that doesn't seem too bad at all. I don't see battery degradation as a reason not to buy a Tesla.

      We did look at buying a Tesla but for me personally while I am sure that it is a great car it didn't really meet our requirements. When I sat in an S at a showroom I was really surprised at the lack of interior and boot space. Two weeks age a Tesla S turned up to pick my family up from the airport but we had 4 cases and we couldn't get them to fit in the boot - so they had to get another car. It was a shame as I was looking forward to my first drive in a Tesla. :(

      The Tesla was the best electric car that we looked at by far. None of us particularly liked the BMW i3 though my son was taken with the i8.

      At the moment electric cars still feel to me like an early adopter technology i.e. expensive for what you get (although low emission vehicles have tax advantages through my wife's car scheme) and requiring some compromises, such as range and interior space. However, for many people that can afford one, it is a good option.

      I am sure that once battery technology improves a bit (more range and less weight) that I will be jumping on the electric bandwagon.

      So I am not denigrating the Tesla I am just saying that it doesn't quite stack up for me yet.
       
    5. outoftheknow

      outoftheknow
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      In terms of buying an EV long term, range in winter and summer where you are is a factor. Science says a battery will reduce discharge capacity as it gets colder and manufacturers of the vehicles know that. Some give estimates of drops under different conditions and speeds and some even give estimates for running heating or cooling as well. The name that mustn't be named on the base model claims 323 miles at 20 deg C at 55 mph no clinate control and 296 at -10 deg C at the same speed and no climate control. Not exactly real world since you will have heating on for passengers but gives a basic 8% range loss. Turn on the heating so the occupants aren't freezing and you lose another 56 miles at an estimated 240 miles range. A total range loss of 83 miles and just over 25% loss.

      Then of course all ten other factors come in as to why different people in real life achieve something different.

      I am almost 100% sure the name that musnt be named has battery conditioning that cools when charging only. Clinate control at all times on the batteries would lose as much range or mybe more than not having it. The cooling when charging reduces stress in each charge cycle, as does charging in the top 20-15% of the battery capacity and not dropping below 10-5% of the usable bottom end of discharge. All manufacturers use the charge and discharge control to mitigate stress and some cool when charging.

      Anyway - I think the numbers using 20 and -10 degrees C above are a good guide as to losses for temperature. So losses of 25% range in really cold weather would be likely with passenger climate control on all things being equal - which they aren't. :)

      Oh and that is with larger wheels than the other cars being discussed. It suggests you lose or gain 5 miles range per inch diameter around 19". Quite a big difference if the wheels are 3-4" smaller on the other cars.
       
    6. gangzoom

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      If you mean Tesla, no your 100% wrong, the battery heater is actually very powerful 6KW is the figure I've seen - running at full power without been plugged into the grid that would drain the battery on a Leaf in a few hours!! Apparently it takes a full 2 hrs to preheat the battery from zero to ideal opertaing temp. Its also very aggressive at cooling. This summer it was coming on quite alot when we had a few warm days, where as a Leaf battery was at the mercy of the heat.

      Cold temp does reduce charge capacity but this is why been able to temperature control the pack is so important. If you can preheat/warm using grid energy than the cold has much less impact on range.

      My old Leaf would struggle to hit 60 miles on occssions when temp fell to single digits compared to 80-90 miles in summer. Where as I did 150 miles in my old 60D back in mid March when temp was 7 degrees/rain/night the average efficiency was BETTER than what I managed recently when its been much warmer!! For both trips the climate control was left on 'auto' with temp set at 21 for the March trip and 19 for more recent.

      The main difference to consumption on the Tesla appears to be speed, for the March trip I didnt go over 70mph, for the more recent trip I tired not to go over 70mph but did spent most of the trip in the most right hand lane ;).

      [​IMG]

      [​IMG]

      Tesla thinks battery temperature management is so important its one of the most complex parts of the car. Consider Nissan has NO heat/cooling system AT ALL for the Leaf, it probably not a surprise battery degredation on Tesla battery packs are so much better than the Leaf, and cold weather driving seems to impact on range alot less.

      [​IMG]
       
      Last edited: Sep 2, 2017
    7. gangzoom

      gangzoom
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      This video test shows just how complicated/how many options there are to preheat (or not) the battery in a Tesla is cold weather (sub zero temps), and the impact on range/efficiency.

      He notes the total max pre-heating power the Tesla can pull is 6KW for the cabin + 6KW for the battery heater so a total of 12KW heating power if needed!!!

      Energy consumption with preheating and range mode


      His long term battery degradation reports are similar to what others report, essentially in the first 30K/12-48 months there is a 3% drop than degradation slows down to 1% per 30K miles.

      TESLA UPDATES: Model S battery degradation can hold under 10% on Tesla's 8 year warranty
       
    8. outoftheknow

      outoftheknow
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      With all due respect @gangzoom is this the right thread? Alan was looking at the effect of cold for buying an EV long term. Tesla at some of the few who provide some guidance. Up to 25% drop in range from a reasonable summers day to a cold winters night is expected.

      Tesla does it best (in your opinion) and in fact they probably do. That just brings up the whole discussion about where people will buy one or not.

      Personally I think this thread is better without the OP locality locked into to the Canary Islands. The range at ambient is a factor in an answer from anybody. Banging on about what exactly one EV manufacturer does to address the scientific facts doesn't answer the question nor help somebody who simply will not or cannot buy a Tesla.

      IMHO :)
       
    9. gangzoom

      gangzoom
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      All I was doing was correcting a wrong fact about the battery management system, and why termal management is so important as it helps to reduce some of the effects of cold/warm weather.

      Anyone buying an EV for the long-term needs to aware of these facts.
       
    10. IronGiant

      IronGiant
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      Then I would like to correct your comments about the Leaf. Nissan do fit a battery heater to vehicles supplied to colder markets. In your defence though, that is only where winter temps are expected to be lower than -17C, so I'm not surprised you were unaware*. Unsurprisingly, you are recommended to keep your car plugged in at night if those temperatures are expected. :).

      * The only reason I knew is it's discussed in our Handbook as a "if fitted" item, and I'm none the wiser as to if they are fitted to UK models or not..
       
    11. Alan CD

      Alan CD
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      I quite agree that Tesla hold claim to being the most innovative EVs currently on the market, as well as being the most expensive. There is no doubt in my mind Tesla represent current 21st century technology in one excellent package and are currently leaders of the pack.

      However, comfortable mid-winter long distance motorway travel at speed in a brand-new Kia Cee'd 1.6 CRDi diesel costing £20,000 OTR represents good value for money. Full tank can take you about 800 miles with care. One example of many.

      No more talk about dinosaurs please - bearing in mind dinosaurs ruled the earth for about 160 million years and their demise was not their fault. Blame the large asteroid that struck the Earth. EVs will not have the same impact, far from it :).
       
    12. ajdj1

      ajdj1
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      I have no issue if a mod wishes to amend my first post as it now seems we sadly won't be buying an EV in Fuerteventura. The thread has gone off topic but seems to be generating a decent discussion about long term ownership nevertheless.
       
    13. gangzoom

      gangzoom
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      More real world data on battery pack degredation. The millage been talked about here is mind boggling, we've never owned a car with more than 80K on the clock, let alone 150k or 500k.

      If this data holds ture for our car, even though the Tesla was stupidlly expensive to buy it might end up been the last car we ever buy....in which case it'll eventually end up been the cheapest car we'll have ever owned. I guess I'll know some time in 20-30-40 years time as I only do 12k a year max.

      Tesla battery predicted to have 80% capacity after 840,000 km (521,000 mi)
       
    14. IronGiant

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      How will the bodywork, interior and gadgets hold out over 10,20,30,40 years? I remember this being the weak spot of some diesels, like our Citroen BX :rotfl: . As one garage put it, that engine's good for 300,000 miles, unfortunately they put it in an 80,000 miles maximum body.
       
    15. Alan CD

      Alan CD
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      We can all make predictions.

      I predict if I do 500,000 miles in 3 years (as a taxi-driver), in good weather and careful charging, my lithium-ion battery pack will have 80% capacity after the 3 years.
       
    16. mjn

      mjn
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      Ugly, like Cinderella sister.

      Sunday.

      And out of date in 12 months.
       
    17. paulyoung666

      paulyoung666
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      New leaf is looking sharp [emoji106]
       
    18. BrightonChris

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      150 mile range? Staggering anyone would spend so much money on such comical range.
       
    19. IronGiant

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      The trick is not to spend so much money ;)
       
    20. paulyoung666

      paulyoung666
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      See above ...
       
    21. Alan CD

      Alan CD
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      The range (claimed) for the new Leaf is 235 miles. I know that is an optimistic figure given by Nissan (as all the car manufacturers do, the little darlings).

      However, where does the 150 mile range come from? Is there a link available?

      Seems one hell of a difference between 235 and 150.
       
    22. lovegroova

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      It depends on the test used. The Japanese test give 235, the USA one, 150. THe Model 3 does 220 on the USA test, for comparison.
       
    23. Alan CD

      Alan CD
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      I've read the Japanese test gives 248 mile range and the USA test gives 150 mile range. Is there a European test which gives the 235 mile range I keep reading about?

      Many websites state a range of 235 miles.

      No doubt it'll all come out in the wash :)
       
    24. IronGiant

      IronGiant
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      Going back to the original question, I wouldn't advise anyone to "buy" an EV at the moment, unless it fitted their requirements for the next ten years. People crowing about how their car will last for 40 years, the technology could change overnight and that car could be worthless in 5 years time. But that's fine unless you want to sell it. Anyone that invests £30k and much more in a car that might we worth 5K when the next best thing comes over the horizon, has money to burn.
       
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    25. Synchro

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      Very, very tempted to look at this for our next car, spring next year!
       
    26. Alan CD

      Alan CD
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      From the pictures the Leaf 2 certainly seems a better looking car than the 'old' Leaf.

      Shall await the real-time tests and reviews with some impatience, I'm intrigued by what the range of the new Leaf actually is under normal driving conditions.
       
    27. gangzoom

      gangzoom
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      The only realistic measure of EV range is the US EPA rating. The European and Japanese cycles are a joke and have no real life meaning.

      The EPA rating for the new Leaf is only 150 miles.

      This is the new Nissan Leaf
       
    28. NewfieDrool

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    29. gangzoom

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      I would agree, for me cars have always been a weakness I cannot fight, I always work on the basis every penny I spend on a car is money down the drain, I certainly don't buy cars to make money or save it. Anyone who pretends otherwise is just lying to themselves. The cheapest way of motoring has and always will be the £500 banger with a 12 month MOT.

      But am pretty sure my current EV will last at least 10 years with no issues to the drive train, and probably with alot less running costs than my old cars. This is ture for any EV providing the battery pack has a proven record of low degradation.
       
    30. Phill104

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      Used a friends Tesla S today. What a stunning car it is. Far too big, but otherwise utterly brilliant. He has a fast charger at home as 5 miles per hour charge rate of the normal mains was not quite cutting it for him on some days. A lot of the time he charges off solar at a slow rate, other times off the mains and if the charge is really low off the fast charger. That doesn't get used much as he gets to a Tesla fast charge station quite often to keep it topped up. He said it has become a bit of a lifestyle thing and changed his routine quite a bit. As he works from home most of the time it does make a lot of sense for him. He admits it would not work for him before he became self employed but that is no longer an issue. I hope in 10 years time the technology of batteries does improve but I fear it will take 20 from all the research I have done. We still do not fully understand how the current tech works and until we do we cannot begin to improve at a high rate. Most improvements have been minor but cumulative over the last 20 years.
       

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