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Worldometers closed cases figures query

Autopilot

Distinguished Member
Can someone please explain this - 19% of closed cases are deaths? This has gradually been going up over the last few days. Is it as concerning as it seems?

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The Dreamer

Distinguished Member
No real cause for concern, as they are, as you say closed cases.

There will be plenty of people still undergoing treatment, who will survive - but they’re not included in the figures (how can we know whether they survive or not - that’s in the future)?

So deaths will always lead, as more and more cases head to hospital - only when the crisis is over, will the true percentage be seen.
 

Miss Mandy

Moderator
It's not a concern because it's only the closed cases, is ones where treatment has finished either through the patient getting better or because they've sadly died. As you can see on the data you've posted there are still over 635k open cases of people being treated.
If you combined the total number of active cases with the number of closed cases the death rate is approximately 5% which doesn't sound anywhere near as bad as 19%. Of course the numbers aren't going to stay that way though and we won't know the real figures for a long while yet, if ever.
 
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The Dreamer

Distinguished Member
...the death rate is approximately 5% which doesn't sound anywhere near as bad as 19%.

TBH, even the 5% figure is inaccurate, as these are only tested cases, there are plenty more people in the world with CV19 that don’t form a part of these stats (I know of at least two personally! :rolleyes: ) - I believe the accepted percentage of deaths due CV19 is somewhere between 2-3.5%
 
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Miss Mandy

Moderator
It would be great if it were just 0.05%, but I think your factors are out a little.

TBH, even the 5% figure is inaccurate, as these are only tested cases, there are plenty more people in the world with CV19 that don’t form a part of these stats (I know of at least two personally! :rolleyes: ) - I believe the accepted percentage of deaths due CV19 is somewhere between 2-3.5%
Yep, I've edited it, but you managed to quote before it changed. I had my decimal point in the wrong place! :facepalm:
I don't think we'll ever know the true figures because there is so little testing going on and also many people will only display mild symptoms (or none at all) which will not require a doctor or hospital visit.
 

The Dreamer

Distinguished Member
Yep, I've edited it, but you managed to quote before it changed. I had my decimal point in the wrong place! :facepalm:
I don't think we'll ever know the true figures because there is so little testing going on and also many people will only display mild symptoms (or none at all) which will not require a doctor or hospital visit.
Shhh... I’ve edited my post now - no-one will ever know! :D
 

Chocci

Member
I suspect and hope the number of infections is far far higher than the current statistics suggest. I believe this virus has been amongst us since the new year and that early deaths were put down as flu. First infection was detected on 31/1 in both Italy and the UK only because that was the first time we had testing available. Eagerly awaiting the results from the ongoing antibody tests in wuhan. Even a 3% infection rate would be a cause for celebration.


This could be a huge case of bad science based on incomplete data. 27,000 people died in England in the last flu season yet most deaths are registered as the underlying disease rather than flu. This barely gets a mention in the media.

On the contrary, all deaths due to Covid19 are recorded as such despite the vast majority of victims having an underlying disease and a government health advisor stated that between 50 and 75 per cent of the fatalities would probably have died this year. Obviously, still tragic.


The average age of death in Italy is 83 and the average age of the victims in Italy categorised as a Covid19 death is 78.5 with 9 out of 10 being over 70. This could give hope in that only the elderly and the vulnerable need lockdown measures moving forward once the NHS is geared up to cope with the potential patients coming from this group

Iceland is where I look for even some kind of realistic figure as they are testing far more than the UK. (population 340,000, infections 1135, deaths 2). Even looking at Germany where they are testing far more mild cases, the mortality rate is far lower than our distorted figures present.

worldometers.info/cor…us/




The uk figures are nonsense as we're only testing hospital admissions. There could well be 100 times the current reported number of infection cases. Extrapolate that and we could be looking at a mortality rate akin to influenza. The issue though is the infection rate of 2.5-3 compared to flu of 1.4 hence the need for the current lockdown

This Dr explains my thoughts far better than I could and we should hope he's on to something. Fingers crossed.


spectator.co.uk/art…ink
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
There are no accurate stats surrounding Covid 19 until mass testing is rolled out. If you can't count it you can't manage it.

Ultimately the only stats you can truly rely on at the moment is the overall mortality rate (deaths of all sorts) which doesn't appear to be rising abnormally.
 

The Dreamer

Distinguished Member
This Dr explains my thoughts far better than I could and we should hope he's on to something. Fingers crossed.
Interesting article. Damned if you, damned if you don’t basically.

The major problem with waiting to see ‘good data’ is that it’ll then be too late to act, so those in charge tend to leap for the ‘safest option’.

A good example of this would be the CAA, during the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland 10 years ago.

No-one in the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) had any experience of operations while such a phenomena was occurring.

The only reference they had to go on was Eric Moody’s famous Jumbo glider over Bali BBC News - When volcanic ash stopped a Jumbo at 37,000ft

Each department within the CAA was asked whether it was safe to fly, and each department answered that they didn’t know, and passed the problem further up the food chain.

...until it got to the head of the CAA, a career administrator, but with no aviation experience whatsoever, she just did what was ‘safe’ in her eyes, and closed our airspace To any commercial traffic.

The sky’s were totally clear, the amount of ash present anywhere near the U.K. was absolutely minuscule.

Willie Walsh even took matters into his own hands to prove the skys were safe, when he went up in a jumbo and flew around for a few hours, proving there were no ill effects.

A few days later the airspace was reopened.

It became apparent that the CAA themselves, our governing body, were totally out of their depth, and lacked the expertise to assess the data and make informed decisions.

They have since introduced a dedicated working group to advise on these sorts of scenarios, it has pilots, engineers, Avmed, and other specialists all working together to make sure poor decisions such as the volcanic ash fiasco never happen again!

Now I don’t know what sort of advice the government is getting; but I’d wager that people are erring on the side of caution - in both directions. Boris and co will be pushed on the one side by the medics to lockdown and prepare for the worst, and on the other, the economists will be pushing to keep things going as much as possible.

Glad I’m not having to make the decision on what is the right course.

I never thought I’d say that decision making in my job was relatively easy, but compared to what BoJo is having to do.....
 
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