I'd like to wager (with anyone who'd like to take the bet
) that a three chip projector (or equivalent technology) will be available, within two years, or less, at the £8k mark.
Several market drivers will have an impact, namely increased competition, greater "pull through" or demand from the market place, and increased market expectations. Laws of supply and demand basically.
These will be fueled, and abetted, by the engineering and production guys who will make them better, faster and cheaper.
Economies of scale will come into play, and the market will reach the point of "critical mass" where full productionisation of the, at present, inefficient assembly methods, will facilitate mass production of the key machine elements.
The same thing as has happened with :
1) Plasmas - I remember seeing my first Plasma in the States priced at circa £14k or something - now an entry model is £2k and a "Cutting edge" model nearer £4k.
2) LCD Projectors - I remember buying my first LCD PJ for my business, for presentations in the Board room, - it was a Sanyo PLV something or other, and I remember that it was deemed good value at £8k - within 18 months PJ's offering better performance were available at less than £2k
3) Memory Stick's (Sony) - I rememebr being on a trade stand where Sony had just proudly unveiled the 1GB memory stick - at a suggested MRP of £1500 - I've just bught one from the States for £185.
So today's niche market of 3 chip PJ's at £25k will be 2006's mass market (well, relativley) products at £ 7-8K