When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready ?


Not so many anti-vaxxers in that neck of the woods. I lived in Ghana for a while. Vaccination by the WHO still underway for a variety of diseases that we don’t really see today. Seen as a lifesaver by all and sundry. The city of Tema was still pulling over 200 cases of Cholera a month.
I wonder what the anti-vaxxers in this country would be like if our recent history looked like this:
 
I see that Germany and Belgium have now approved the AZ vaccine for the over 65s. And that Germany will be following our 12 week interval.
 
I see that Germany and Belgium have now approved the AZ vaccine for the over 65s. And that Germany will be following our 12 week interval.
Looks like 20m people can't be wrong then. :laugh::laugh::laugh:
 
Seems that many of the smaller EU nations will be placing their own orders for the 2nd generation vaccines, to avoid another shambles when autumn comes around...

Austria and Denmark, chafing at the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines within the European Union, have joined forces with Israel to produce second-generation vaccines against mutations of the coronavirus.
A growing number of EU countries have placed side orders for vaccines from Russia and China, even though the EMA has yet to rule on whether they are both safe and effective.

Slovakia said on Monday it had ordered 2 million doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine and expects half to arrive this month to help it end a surge in infections. The neighbouring Czech Republic - tackling the worst COVID-19 outbreak of any EU country - is also considering ordering Russia’s Sputnik V.

Whilst China is also capitalising upon the production issues which have plagued the likes of AstraZeneca...

China’s vaccine diplomacy campaign has been a surprising success: It has pledged roughly half a billion doses of its vaccines to more than 45 countries, according to a country-by-country tally by The Associated Press. With just four of China’s many vaccine makers claiming they are able to produce at least 2.6 billion doses this year, a large part of the world’s population will end up inoculated not with the fancy Western vaccines boasting headline-grabbing efficacy rates, but with China’s humble, traditionally made shots.
In Europe, China is providing the vaccine to countries such as Serbia and Hungary -- a significant geopolitical victory in Central Europe and the Balkans, where the West, China and Russia are competing for political and economic influence. This stretch of Europe has offered fertile ground for China to strengthen bilateral ties with Serbia and Hungary’s populist leaders, who often criticize the EU.
 
In February last year I was chatting to a friend who's a scientist for PHE, talking about coronavirus and their involvement in it (at that point not at all, but expecting to be involved soon after).

Here we are a smidge over a year later, and we've 21 million people vaccinated.

Amazing. I didn't expect one to be ready so quickly if ever, let alone several.

So pleased I was wrong.
 
Just watching a Channel 4 News report on the German situation. Not holding back showing what a shambles they've made over the AZ dose.

The vaccination centre is actually in the airport; so if they let me fly over I'll have one, stay a few weeks to get pissed, and then have my second one.
 
Just watching a Channel 4 News report on the German situation. Not holding back showing what a shambles they've made over the AZ dose.

The vaccination centre is actually in the airport; so if they let me fly over I'll have one, stay a few weeks to get pissed, and then have my second one.
Munich vaccine festival?
 
How many doses can a stein hold?
 
How many doses can a stein hold?
Lots.
And I have a terrible fear of needles that can be removed by alcoholic beverages. Do you think I can get them on prescription? :beer::beer:
 
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC is effective against the P1, or Brazilian, variant, a source with knowledge of the study told Reuters on Friday.

 
Be interesting to see if the mRNA vaccines can target more than one protein type. Combination of the spike protein and a “virus body” structural protein. Most research appears to go after one specific or the other.
“Antibody nailing” the specific spike protein, plus other structural proteins that don’t mutate so often might help with keeping on top of new variants while we develop more specific vaccines. Or there again, take two vaccine shots.

This was tried on original SARS and despite lab results showing great numbers, challenge trials on animal resulted in ADE or something. Nucleocapsid if I remember correctly is the 2nd most immunogenic after spike protein but Abs are mainly non neutralising and very sensitive too.
I‘m still trying to figure out why different vaccines that introduce similar antigens into anyone’s immune system would be differently effective because of age.

Nope, don’t get it. Anyone else got a logic?

There’s a difference between “there is no evidence that..” and any kind of logic for different phenomena.

Did you manage to find anything more on this? One big difference between Oxford and Pfizer/Moderna is the post/pre fusion Spike protein. Don't know how big a diffrence it makes but Moderna spent good time on it's research. Also Lipid nanoparticle in theory could "bind" to any cells (I've tried to find cell tropism for LNP but seems it's not widely reported) while vectored based are very limited on localisation. Will be interesting to hear opinion possibly with good source as with the talk of endemic and yearly jab thing, there are few issues that I don't feel comfortable with that idea.
 
This was tried on original SARS and despite lab results showing great numbers, challenge trials on animal resulted in ADE or something. Nucleocapsid if I remember correctly is the 2nd most immunogenic after spike protein but Abs are mainly non neutralising and very sensitive too.


Did you manage to find anything more on this? One big difference between Oxford and Pfizer/Moderna is the post/pre fusion Spike protein. Don't know how big a diffrence it makes but Moderna spent good time on it's research. Also Lipid nanoparticle in theory could "bind" to any cells (I've tried to find cell tropism for LNP but seems it's not widely reported) while vectored based are very limited on localisation. Will be interesting to hear opinion possibly with good source as with the talk of endemic and yearly jab thing, there are few issues that I don't feel comfortable with that idea.
Nothing other than general points on immune system deterioration (or not) in general due to aging. Lots on that.

I tried looking at mRNA vs. attenuated virus “routes in” as a possible difference affected by age . Couldn’t find anything , so I’ve decided the Germans and French were talking tripe.
 
It's an interesting question. Now the focus is on future regular booster thing, I'm wondering how the preexisting immunity against Adenovirus vector and broad cell tropism of lipid nanoparticle used on Pfizer/Moderna will have an effect.

On your original question, one more thing to note is preexisting immunity to adenovirus vectors. Even non neutralising antibodies for Ad viruses was able to dampen the vaccine effect in vitro. NAbs are very specific for Ad viruses but non neutralising Abs are cross reactive. J&J are using Ad5 as vector and their research lab was backed by company's huge finance unlike Oxford or others. Similar story on China's progress with Covid19 vaccine. They've some of the best well known virologist and researchers on bat coronaviruses yet decided on old technology? Russians...same?
 
I am glad you two understand that because I am a tad befuddled.
 
The first batch of Moderna’s 17 million doses of vaccine is apparently on schedule to be delivered to the UK in April.

 
Not, of course, that all this back and forward, leaders criticising it, making it political, etc will have had any impact on the EU Citizen's confidence in receiving it.

The 7 Million unused ones in storage that people are refusing, well that will all be over now and they'll be lining up for it.
 



 
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Sounds to me like AstraZeneca may have split their data to exclude cases over the latest few weeks, in order to push up the efficacy a bit. This would occur if the vaccine is less effective against recently spreading variants in the US (e.g. the Kent, SA or NY variants).

It's unfortunate for AZ that 'tricky' variants not present during the Pfozer and Moderna trials were spreading during the AZ US trial as we are not not comparing like with like, and it's one reason why we can't compare the efficacy of different vaccines in different trials. All other vaccines might be subject to reduced efficacy too, had they been having a US trial at the same time as the AZ.

But if I'm right and that's the reason, AstraZeneca should have pointed all that out in their press release and have included the efficacy for ALL the data including the recent stuff. The US data and safety monitoring board would undoubtedly get hot under the collar in that situation and AZ have only themselves to blame. An AZ misstep then that will do nothing to improve confidence among the doubters. But the differences in efficacy might be small - it will be interesting to see what it is.
 
Sounds to me like AstraZeneca may have split their data to exclude cases over the latest few weeks, in order to push up the efficacy a bit. This would occur if the vaccine is less effective against recently spreading variants in the US (e.g. the Kent, SA or NY variants).

It's unfortunate for AZ that 'tricky' variants not present during the Pfozer and Moderna trials were spreading during the AZ US trial as we are not not comparing like with like, and it's one reason why we can't compare the efficacy of different vaccines in different trials. All other vaccines might be subject to reduced efficacy too, had they been having a US trial at the same time as the AZ.

But if I'm right and that's the reason, AstraZeneca should have pointed all that out in their press release and have included the efficacy for ALL the data including the recent stuff. The US data and safety monitoring board would undoubtedly get hot under the collar in that situation and AZ have only themselves to blame. An AZ misstep then that will do nothing to improve confidence among the doubters. But the differences in efficacy might be small - it will be interesting to see what it is.

From the beeb...

AstraZeneca says this was an initial analysis, based on data up to an agreed cut-off date of 17 February, and it would share further analysis with the officials - who are on a key body involved in deciding if the jab is approved in the US - within 48 hours.
 
From the beeb...

AstraZeneca says this was an initial analysis, based on data up to an agreed cut-off date of 17 February, and it would share further analysis with the officials - who are on a key body involved in deciding if the jab is approved in the US - within 48 hours.

Thanks. So the press release was 33 days after the data cut-off. When they announced the UK trial results, the data cut-off was 19 days earlier (23 Nov - 4 Nov) so the question is, why wait longer, or why not include the 2 weeks later data? Sounds to me like a minor issue though - and AZ should know by now how picky the FDA etc. are in the US, it should soon blow over but AZ are getting a bit of a reputation unfortunately.
 

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