Was Lockdown Necessary?

password1

Well-known Member
You realise you can catch it by other means than being within 2 metres of someone or inadequate ppe
yes. i have mentioned those ways in one of my previous posts many weeks ago.

edit: does adequate ppe not reduce the risk of transmission with some of the other ways? we dont know how many people who caught this airborne virus was caught from other ways..
 
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GarryF

Well-known Member
The only way to have controlled the outbreak would have been for all countries to have acted swiftly (well before the end of February), closed their borders and had a complete lockdown - it was international air travel that spread the virus out of Asia in sufficient quantity for there to be millions of cases worldwide.
Of course no country did enough, quick enough, and many countries and their leaders put their own agendas ahead of the health of their citizens - some much more than others.
Here in NZ the PM and her advisory team took the threat seriously, acted reasonably swiftly and have clearly put the health of citizens above anything else for the past 4 months.
The border was closed to all but returning NZ citizens (who had to self-isolate or quarantine) in mid-March.
1504 cases, 22 deaths, 1 active case - no new cases for over 2 weeks. All deaths in the 60-90+ age group, mostly in rest home clusters.
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OK, sectors of the economy are in a poor state, especially tourism, but other sectors such as primary production are largely unaffected.
We are about to relax all lockdown measures except border restrictions - the reason that this cannot be done yet is that the rest of the world hasn't contained the outbreak to the same level as NZ.
I am really keen to get back to the UK to see family and friends, but realize that this won't be happening for many, many, many months.
Let me rephrase this bit for you

the reason that this cannot be done potentially forever is that the rest of the world hasn't contained the outbreak

so imagine there is no vaccine, C19 is a corona virus, so is the common cold. It's quite possible in 6-12 months most of the world will be back to normal, while certain parts will have to have border restrictions indefinitely. You can ban people from hot spots, but as Italy found out, people just arrive via other routes.

We'll have a better idea in the next 6 months, whether there is a second wave in the UK, or if it's burned it's self out etc.
 

everett_psycho

Distinguished Member
The only way to have controlled the outbreak would have been for all countries to have acted swiftly (well before the end of February), closed their borders and had a complete lockdown - it was international air travel that spread the virus out of Asia in sufficient quantity for there to be millions of cases worldwide.
Of course no country did enough, quick enough, and many countries and their leaders put their own agendas ahead of the health of their citizens - some much more than others.
Here in NZ the PM and her advisory team took the threat seriously, acted reasonably swiftly and have clearly put the health of citizens above anything else for the past 4 months.
The border was closed to all but returning NZ citizens (who had to self-isolate or quarantine) in mid-March.
1504 cases, 22 deaths, 1 active case - no new cases for over 2 weeks. All deaths in the 60-90+ age group, mostly in rest home clusters.
View attachment 1313910
View attachment 1313914
View attachment 1313907

View attachment 1313915

OK, sectors of the economy are in a poor state, especially tourism, but other sectors such as primary production are largely unaffected.
We are about to relax all lockdown measures except border restrictions - the reason that this cannot be done yet is that the rest of the world hasn't contained the outbreak to the same level as NZ.
I am really keen to get back to the UK to see family and friends, but realize that this won't be happening for many, many, many months.
Having heard the feedback from people back in the UK the difference in approach has been night and day. The lockdown was tough here and hard for many but I think kiwis generally accepted it was for the greater good and just got on with it. It was a proper lockdown with nothing open, you could buy groceries and that's it, you couldn't even buy non essential items online and those workers we had in the field had to have government issued notices to say they were allowed to work and had to show they could do so safely. The communication from Jacinda and Ashley Bloomfield was clear throughout with daily updates on how it was going, none of this you and one other person can meet 2 metres apart in the garden on days with s in them, oh and clean the bathroom if you use it.

I can't help but think a lockdown was absolutely justified to stop the virus, but the lockdowns that seemingly went ahead half baked with confusing rules and poor communications just didn't get a result good enough before people reached the point of having enough of it and breaking the rules. Going in hard early cut it off to ease out of it later and slowly let people go back to normal and just as people stayed going stir crazy here we were allowed to meet up in small groups with shops slowly reopening.
 

WeeScottishLass

Well-known Member
Having heard the feedback from people back in the UK the difference in approach has been night and day. The lockdown was tough here and hard for many but I think kiwis generally accepted it was for the greater good and just got on with it. It was a proper lockdown with nothing open, you could buy groceries and that's it, you couldn't even buy non essential items online and those workers we had in the field had to have government issued notices to say they were allowed to work and had to show they could do so safely. The communication from Jacinda and Ashley Bloomfield was clear throughout with daily updates on how it was going, none of this you and one other person can meet 2 metres apart in the garden on days with s in them, oh and clean the bathroom if you use it.

I can't help but think a lockdown was absolutely justified to stop the virus, but the lockdowns that seemingly went ahead half baked with confusing rules and poor communications just didn't get a result good enough before people reached the point of having enough of it and breaking the rules. Going in hard early cut it off to ease out of it later and slowly let people go back to normal and just as people stayed going stir crazy here we were allowed to meet up in small groups with shops slowly reopening.
I do think that the new Zealand response was very impressive in comparison to ours here, in the UK.
 

Max2132

Member
That's what you get for having protect the nhs shoved down your throat.

And the mixed messaging, the day after we were told business as usual at hospitals, the major hospital in the area so no it isn't lol
Wish I had kept my mouth shut now, just been offered a appointment of next Monday for my operation and now I am worried about going in lol.

However saying that its not the main hospital, its a private one behind it and they swab you for corona before you go for the actual op.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
Wish I had kept my mouth shut now, just been offered a appointment of next Monday for my operation and now I am worried about going in lol.

However saying that its not the main hospital, its a private one behind it and they swab you for corona before you go for the actual op.
Good luck with the op, if you need it then quicker it’s done the better👍
 

Gagdet88

Active Member
No the virus never infected 80% of people as by doctor said it would. 50,000 flu deaths in UK last year? We are at 40,000 corona deaths.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
Posted on the main thread, but it's a serious question, lock down didn't exist until the day we locked down, so who's right?

15th SAGE minutes, 13th MARCH (10 days before lockdown, few days after Italy has locked down)

SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid19 will cause a second peak. SAGE advises that it is a near certainty that countries such as China, where heavy suppression is underway, will experience a second peak once measures are relaxed.
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
I think the risk of not locking down and the NHS becoming completely and utterly overran was too high of a risk to take, especially for vulnerable adults who are extremely vulnerable to this virus.

The long term effects of the virus and the lockdown will be devastating regardless; it's important the government has a plan in place to mitigate the economical, social and health effects of the lockdown. I'm sure as they put in place the lockdown, they have relevant plans in place to tackle those issues going forwards
 

iangreasby

Well-known Member
In months to come when the virus has hopefully declined, I expect public opinion (probably fuelled by the media) to flip. There will be a backlash from those who have been adversely affected, asking why everyone had to be locked down, rather than just the elderly and vulnerable. I expect this to come from business owners, people who have lost jobs/homes and students unable to attend university. I suspect the reality has yet to hit home and lots of people are living in a type of fool's paradise.
 

Max2132

Member
I am waiting for this :

Have you been affected by coronavirus and it wasn't your fault, call now

or

Has your education being ruined by coronavirus and you are in the class of 2020/21, then call now

or

Did you catch coronavirus while in hospital, claim today

or

Did coronavirus cause your business to be liquidated? Staff made redundant? Did it affect your mental and/or physical help. We have helped thousands to make a claim, get the money you are entitled to. Call handlers standing by
 

Trollslayer

Distinguished Member
Look at the US then say that.
The past week, I think it was Thursday, the UK had 173 new cases.
Florida with one third of the UK's population had over 3,700 new cases without lockdown.
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
Badly. Funny how the critics always appear after the event isn't it? There was no way to "win" this, and the fact that NHS didn't collapse was as good as we can expect.
I've always thought it good to put yourself in someone else's shoes, so try this for a scenario that happened in early February.
You are a glorified hospital bed manager, and there are two things you know:
  1. You are about to face the worst plague in living memory.
  2. At the end of January, the NHS has 4600 critical care beds and they are 80% full. That was the last time the figures were created before the world goes crazy.
You are in the major incident team planning a response on increasing bed availability, and are asked how many beds you can make available. Just one of the many topics for discussion:

You. "I can vacate 100 beds by sending older people into care homes"
Next Q. from the Boss. "Won't they spread the virus? What will be the effect?
Doctor. "Assume 10 patients already have it, and an R value of 3, worst case. Also assume 3 generations of transfer before it's isolated and stopped. 10x3x3 = 90 cases, possible 10 deaths, maybe less"
Boss. "How many lives do we save with an extra 100 ICU beds available?"
Doctor. "Probably 30 in the first week"

You leave the room thanking whoever you pray to that you never have to explain that decision, and get on with the job. 3 months later you see your boss getting toasted on TV, for not answering those questions.

Tough duty isn't it?

Many people were commenting on suggestions before COVID or in the early stages actually. Read back.

People aren't looking at near 50,000 death toll and now saying the government did the wrong actions. Users of this forum for example were calling for action when the death toll was <250.

You're also ignoring the context of WHY the government are in such a difficult situation (slow inconsistent decision making despite precedents set by Italy and China on what could potentially and ended did happen).
 

password1

Well-known Member
Look at the US then say that.
The past week, I think it was Thursday, the UK had 173 new cases.
Florida with one third of the UK's population had over 3,700 new cases without lockdown.
you mean 173 deaths, not cases?

there were a lot more people catching the virus than 173
 

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