Was Lockdown Necessary?

password1

Well-known Member
If we have social distancing in place and lockdown measures since march then why are people still being infected in june?

if it takes 3-6 weeks from infection to death and if people are dying in june, then it suggests they were infected during lockdown. they broke social distancing rules or are a key worker with inadequate ppe or they didn't break social distancing rules but the 2 metres is still not 100% safe.
 

Lancia34

Distinguished Member
If we have social distancing in place and lockdown measures since march then why are people still being infected in june?

if it takes 3-6 weeks from infection to death and if people are dying in june, then it suggests they were infected during lockdown. they broke social distancing rules or are a key worker with inadequate ppe or they didn't break social distancing rules but the 2 metres is still not 100% safe.
Lots of people breaking the lockdown rules, people still going to work and not protecting and definitely lots of key workers I would think.
There will be a pretty big number who still saw family and friends, almost guaranteed.
 

password1

Well-known Member
Lots of people breaking the lockdown rules, people still going to work and not protecting and definitely lots of key workers I would think.
There will be a pretty big number who still saw family and friends, almost guaranteed.
that means if lockdown is gradually being lifted over the next few weeks then people who carry the virus could be infecting others in public... i don't understand why so many people are risking it.. many with no ppe. healthy people can spread it to elderly and those not so fit and healthy..

hopefully the science that the government is saying they are following is saving lives
 

password1

Well-known Member
whatever has been done has been ruined in the last few days .......
boris said there are fines for people who break the rules and he will have no hesitation to put measures in place if the 'R' value remains high or something like that...

will lots of money will be raised by the thousands of people breaking the social distancing rules everyday?
 

paulyoung666

Distinguished Member
boris said there are fines for people who break the rules and he will have no hesitation to put measures in place if the 'R' value remains high or something like that...

will lots of money will be raised by the thousands of people breaking the social distancing rules everyday?
unlikely .......
 

DOBLY

Well-known Member
The only way to have controlled the outbreak would have been for all countries to have acted swiftly (well before the end of February), closed their borders and had a complete lockdown - it was international air travel that spread the virus out of Asia in sufficient quantity for there to be millions of cases worldwide.
Of course no country did enough, quick enough, and many countries and their leaders put their own agendas ahead of the health of their citizens - some much more than others.
Here in NZ the PM and her advisory team took the threat seriously, acted reasonably swiftly and have clearly put the health of citizens above anything else for the past 4 months.
The border was closed to all but returning NZ citizens (who had to self-isolate or quarantine) in mid-March.
1504 cases, 22 deaths, 1 active case - no new cases for over 2 weeks. All deaths in the 60-90+ age group, mostly in rest home clusters.
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OK, sectors of the economy are in a poor state, especially tourism, but other sectors such as primary production are largely unaffected.
We are about to relax all lockdown measures except border restrictions - the reason that this cannot be done yet is that the rest of the world hasn't contained the outbreak to the same level as NZ.
I am really keen to get back to the UK to see family and friends, but realize that this won't be happening for many, many, many months.
 
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Trollslayer

Distinguished Member
Population density seems to affect transmission rates, this can be seen in a local authority breakdown of England (available at Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK.
The lowest rate is Rutland with 88.2 per 100,000 of population and Sunderland has a rate of 499.2.
The ratio has been fairly consistent and Dorset (excluding Bournemouth/Christchurch/Poole) has a rate of 96.4 although it has eight times the population or Rutland.
 

Evokazz

Well-known Member
We've not been in lockdown, stores etc closed and services, businesses shut down, but in general, the british public have treated this like an extended summer holiday, exploiting the places that have remained open by flocking to supermarkets, DIY stores, then theres those who haven't changed anything at all, still socialise, still visit friends and family. Look at all the beach and park images online over the past few months, the nice weather has been taken as an early summer, street parties, BBQ's, clap for carers has become a weekly social event round here where people clap, then drink whilst breaking guidelines. Now we have the bored British attending protests by the 1000's.

I fully support keyworkers (proper keyworkers, who actually put their lives at risk, not the pretend ones or those who claim they are, those who actually save lives and contribute etc) But aside from them and a small bunch of us who have followed rules, I have never been so ashamed of England, in general we are disgusting animals who have treated this whole thing a joke, again, we haven't been in lockdown at all.

It needed to happen earlier, and needed to be stricter, it needed to be enforced, because were clearly too stupid to follow simple rules.
 

Lancia34

Distinguished Member
that means if lockdown is gradually being lifted over the next few weeks then people who carry the virus could be infecting others in public... i don't understand why so many people are risking it.. many with no ppe. healthy people can spread it to elderly and those not so fit and healthy..

hopefully the science that the government is saying they are following is saving lives
You have to remember a large number of people think it’s just the flu and don’t really care.
People don’t read the news and get facts from social media so think it’s all an overreaction.
Sad but true.
 

tich77

Active Member
On thought (haven't read whole thread). Figures in Ops post show that UK at 1172, Swedish deaths at 185. UK death rate 6.3 x higher than Swedens, except.. Sweden has a population of 10 million, UK population 66.65 million, ie 6.6x greater. So the stats show an almost identical rate.


And lets not forget the purpose of the lockdown was not to stop the virus, it was to limit the death rate to avoid overwhelming the NHS. Did it succeed? Arguably yes, as the NHS was not overwhelmed.

Whether the Govt - any Govt - did the right thing is a pointless argument; its all based on hindsight by people who were not in the hot chair, complete with scant scientific knowledge of the virulence of the infection, it's mortality rate in their population/climate, first-hand experience of appropriate pandemic procedures.

Armchair critics are like courtroom lawyers - with all the time in the world, and none of the responsibility or pressure of the situation.
 

acatweasel

Well-known Member
I wonder how the critics would have fared.
Badly. Funny how the critics always appear after the event isn't it? There was no way to "win" this, and the fact that NHS didn't collapse was as good as we can expect.
I've always thought it good to put yourself in someone else's shoes, so try this for a scenario that happened in early February.
You are a glorified hospital bed manager, and there are two things you know:
  1. You are about to face the worst plague in living memory.
  2. At the end of January, the NHS has 4600 critical care beds and they are 80% full. That was the last time the figures were created before the world goes crazy.
You are in the major incident team planning a response on increasing bed availability, and are asked how many beds you can make available. Just one of the many topics for discussion:

You. "I can vacate 100 beds by sending older people into care homes"
Next Q. from the Boss. "Won't they spread the virus? What will be the effect?
Doctor. "Assume 10 patients already have it, and an R value of 3, worst case. Also assume 3 generations of transfer before it's isolated and stopped. 10x3x3 = 90 cases, possible 10 deaths, maybe less"
Boss. "How many lives do we save with an extra 100 ICU beds available?"
Doctor. "Probably 30 in the first week"

You leave the room thanking whoever you pray to that you never have to explain that decision, and get on with the job. 3 months later you see your boss getting toasted on TV, for not answering those questions.

Tough duty isn't it?
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
On thought (haven't read whole thread). Figures in Ops post show that UK at 1172, Swedish deaths at 185. UK death rate 6.3 x higher than Swedens, except.. Sweden has a population of 10 million, UK population 66.65 million, ie 6.6x greater. So the stats show an almost identical rate.


And lets not forget the purpose of the lockdown was not to stop the virus, it was to limit the death rate to avoid overwhelming the NHS. Did it succeed? Arguably yes, as the NHS was not overwhelmed.

Whether the Govt - any Govt - did the right thing is a pointless argument; its all based on hindsight by people who were not in the hot chair, complete with scant scientific knowledge of the virulence of the infection, it's mortality rate in their population/climate, first-hand experience of appropriate pandemic procedures.

Armchair critics are like courtroom lawyers - with all the time in the world, and none of the responsibility or pressure of the situation.
You need an armchair upgrade on your epidemiology on your first bit

the figures on the op were to highlight the peak in each country, comparing individual days won’t give you a relevant result, you need to look at excess mortality

from the FT corona page

UK excess death 59,500
Sweden excess death 4,100

and to those who say you can’t compare uk with Sweden etc I think it’s also useful to compare the Scottish excess mortality which is over 5,000 now with approx half the population

Totally agree with you on hindsight etc, but now knowing what we know now if there was a second wave can we not learn and improve our response?

There’s a political thread if you’re feeling brave, good luck in there :D
 

simonblue

Distinguished Member
Good news New Zealand


New Zealand has no single active Covid-19 infection, officials said on Monday, after the last remaining patient recovered.

That's after more than two weeks of no new infections.

Later on Monday, the government of Jacinda Ardern will announce whether it'll remove the remaining social distancing restrictions.

New Zealand had one of the world's strictest lockdowns for weeks and successfully stopped the pandemic from escalating.

There have been 1,504 confirmed cases in New Zealand, and 22 deaths.

:)
 

DOBLY

Well-known Member
^ Yup - from midnight tonight (NZ time) the only restrictions will be at the border.
 

Chocci

Member
If we have social distancing in place and lockdown measures since march then why are people still being infected in june?

if it takes 3-6 weeks from infection to death and if people are dying in june, then it suggests they were infected during lockdown. they broke social distancing rules or are a key worker with inadequate ppe or they didn't break social distancing rules but the 2 metres is still not 100% safe.
You realise you can catch it by other means than being within 2 metres of someone or inadequate ppe
 

Chocci

Member
We've not been in lockdown, stores etc closed and services, businesses shut down, but in general, the british public have treated this like an extended summer holiday, exploiting the places that have remained open by flocking to supermarkets, DIY stores, then theres those who haven't changed anything at all, still socialise, still visit friends and family. Look at all the beach and park images online over the past few months, the nice weather has been taken as an early summer, street parties, BBQ's, clap for carers has become a weekly social event round here where people clap, then drink whilst breaking guidelines. Now we have the bored British attending protests by the 1000's.

I fully support keyworkers (proper keyworkers, who actually put their lives at risk, not the pretend ones or those who claim they are, those who actually save lives and contribute etc) But aside from them and a small bunch of us who have followed rules, I have never been so ashamed of England, in general we are disgusting animals who have treated this whole thing a joke, again, we haven't been in lockdown at all.

It needed to happen earlier, and needed to be stricter, it needed to be enforced, because were clearly too stupid to follow simple rules.
Small bunch of us? Practically everyone around where I live appears to be making great efforts to social distance etc (Adur 100,000 people, 99 cases, 2 deaths).
 
I wouldn't call that recent either.

Surely anything that occurred and there are still living people who were present at the time, would be considered recent?
Don't be daft. How old would anyone of working age then be now? And it is actually not even worth it, but let me help your thoughts a little, how old would anyone of working age with experience and skills then be now? And then you'd need a cross-section of skills as well. And don't forget the world has changed a little bit.

My great grandparents who were children then (there is a clue), had great pleasure at the age of 99 (another clue) to still tell the stories about village life with horse and cart and making your own milk and butter. From my wife side, she died about four years ago (another clue). On my side of the family I never even got to know them (another clue), but were more travelled in those days between Switzerland, the UK and the Netherlands predominantly. But yes dead a very long time, wouldn't be of much help now.
 

everett_psycho

Distinguished Member
Good news New Zealand


New Zealand has no single active Covid-19 infection, officials said on Monday, after the last remaining patient recovered.

That's after more than two weeks of no new infections.

Later on Monday, the government of Jacinda Ardern will announce whether it'll remove the remaining social distancing restrictions.

New Zealand had one of the world's strictest lockdowns for weeks and successfully stopped the pandemic from escalating.

There have been 1,504 confirmed cases in New Zealand, and 22 deaths.

:)
^ Yup - from midnight tonight (NZ time) the only restrictions will be at the border.
And the response in our work group chat to this when she was on TV earlier was "NOOOOOOOOOOO", it means back to the office for all within the week. No pleasing everyone eh.

I'll definitely take the effort of going back to work in the office over the alternatives, let's just hope they keep it this way. Aunty Cindy will likely be getting herself reelected in September off the back of this, she's done incredibly well and made NZ the envy of the world. Considering in her first term in office she's had a kid, a terrorist shooting, a pandemic and now a recession it's unbelievable she's coming in to the election so far ahead of her opposition.
 

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