Warner to go exclusive after christmas?

Discussion in 'Blu-ray & DVD discs' started by micks_address, Sep 14, 2007.

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  1. micks_address

    micks_address
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    by the looks of it - the holiday season could now be the major deciding factor in who wins out format wise..

    from here:

    http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/s...D_DVD/Blu-ray_Hybrid_Disc_On_Hold_For_Now/965

    "We're talking to both sides and it's crazy right now," said Sanders. "We remain committed to both for the time being. We'll see how the fourth quarter plays out. The consumer is still kind of divided, and we still believe that we should offer the content in both formats. Now, we will watch the marketplace very closely, and see how it plays out, but for now we are supporting both."



    looks like both camps are lobbying Warner intensily to go exclusive.. if they do go either way then i think it will be hard to ignore that format for very long..
     
  2. Sonic67

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    Yep that should swing it. :suicide:
     
  3. Lion

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    I have seriously considered buying some blu ray discs :thumbsup:
    but I don't want to run the risk of them ending up in the loft with my laserdisc and minidisc collections. :devil:
    so warner going HD DVD exclusive would be good news for me. :cool:
     
  4. micks_address

    micks_address
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    ok early morning eagerness i know.. i just hope i can get my hands a copy of the matrix on hd on blue ray this side of christmas just in case warner decide to do hd dvd exclusive next year

     
  5. gatty-jr-jr

    gatty-jr-jr
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    With WB releases on HD-DVD they seem to have more of a priority with releases like matrix and batman and enhanced special features like web enabled features.

    I would say they would more likely go HD-DVD Exclusive. As long as they DONT release they stupid TotalHD discs.

    And im nutral as i have both BD and HD-DVD. But prefer HD-DVD as no region code.
     
  6. Spidey987

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    I think as time passes, it's less and less likely that Warner will go exclusive. A couple weeks back, the idea of them going HD DVD exclusive up to the release of their TotalHD discs seemed quite plasuable. But now, with TotalHD pushed back and the above statement, I think they're just happy hedging their bets and releasing on both formats.
     
  7. Noggin1980

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    You'd prefer to spend over £1000 buying every warner title to the end of the year rather than spend £150 on a HD-DVD player with 5 free movies in a month or 2?
     
  8. micks_address

    micks_address
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    mods - please feel free to lock the thread if you think its heading towards a format debate..

    cheers,
    mick
     
  9. micks_address

    micks_address
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    if i had the cash - yes... i wont buy every title that was a rash comment.. but obviously sales is going to be a deciding factor if warner are to make a decision one way or another.. its not the cost.. i like just having my ps3, amp and sky box.. all my entertainment units shelves are full so i dont know where id fit a hd dvd player (even though my amp has a spare hdmi input.. ).. and then i'd be introducing redundant kit.. i'd have two machines for playing dvds connected to my tv which i dont want..

     
  10. Noggin1980

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    I don't want two boxes either, so going dual format for me will likely involve a dual player.

    Just found it a bit weird that you would prefer to spend lots of money on movies that you probably didn't want over buying a HD-DVD player, thanks for your clarification on that.
     
  11. 7hil

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    Dual players are the way of the future. It'll be a cold day in hell before Sony go HD-DVD. ;)

    Having said that they did wind up making VHS's, after a while.
     
  12. KeanosMagicHat

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    It's amazing how people can view the same situation so differently sometimes isn't it?

    I see it the opposite way and I've got a feeling I can't shake that Warner are building up to go HD-DVD.

    As a PS3 owner this wouldn't be good for me personally, especially as I bought the PS3 as a (upgradable) Blu-Ray player first and a games console second.

    EDIT:

    Seem to be behind the times on this a little as I hadn't seen these THD dual format discs before. What a great idea, providing they are not more prone to disc rot as a result.
     
  13. Pecker

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    Common sense would dictate the following:

    Wait until they see how well 'Transformers' and 'Bourne 3' do.

    These are the first big HD DVD-only titles of the genres appearing to do well in high def, and likely to appeal to the demographic who currently appear to be buying high def.

    Looking at box office, and the sales of '300', Warner will have a pretty good idea how many copies 'Transformers' and 'Bourne 3' would sell on HD DVD, BD, and combined, had they been a Warner/dual-format release.

    SCENARIO 1:

    If the HD DVDs sell the same as Warner would have expected the HD DVDs alone to sell for them, then they might want to go BD, as long as BD isn't extremely expensive. Clearly there will be very few HD DVD buyers out there compared to BD buyers, so they should go with the most popular format.

    SCENARIO 2:

    If the HD DVDs sell a few more than they'd have expected a HD DVD to sell, but less than the combined they might have expected from HD DVD + BD, then the obvious conclusion is that there are a few high def player owners out there who are dual format owners, but most have either one or the other. Subsequently, staying dual-format would be logical, for the time being at least.

    SCENARIO 3:

    If the HD DVDs sell far more than they'd have expected a HD DVD alone to sell (nearer to what they'd have expected the combined sales of BD + HD DVD to sell), then the obvious conclusion is that most high def player owners are dual format owners.

    In that case, continuing to release on two formats looks both expensive and unnecessary. In that case, it’d be much better for Warner to go for the cheaper format to produce.

    The sales of 'Transformers' and 'Bourne 3' should answer a lot of questions.

    I hope the above is logical, and not biased to either format.

    Now here's my guess. I bet sales fall somewhere between SCENARIO 2 and SCENARIO 3, leaving Warner with a headache.

    Steve W
     
  14. Adam_uk

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    ummm well all this assumes that neither side is not offering wads of cash and Warner's decision is just about sales figures.

    If that is the case they should just stay nuetral I guess.

    It will be interesting to see what Warner do. Though even if they went exclusive it would not mean much to me as I own both.

    Dual format players seemt he way to go.
     
  15. Rasczak

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    I'd save your money - and likewise to any HD DVD fans thinking of doing the same - current sales figures are likely to be one of the smallest factors in any decision. Any exclusivity deal will more likely hinge on considerations such as predicted long term format costs, production yields, software, DRM, market trends (CE support) and planned future alliances/strategic partnerships. Sales figures, at this early stage, are a little moot.
     
  16. Rom

    Rom
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    I totally agree. I think Warner specifically wants to see where the bigger potential market is going. BD currently have by far the bigger market with the PS3 but the software has been lacking in sales (well over double the players but under 2:1 software lead) - and no, I'm not starting a sales/format figures war!

    However, their (Warners) statement did specifically mention Toshibas agressive pricing/offers for the last quarter and I suspect they are waiting to see if the chinese players 'holy grail' will in fact create the mooted surge in HD DVD take-up. If it does, I believe Warner will be happy to go excllusive to HD DVD. If not, they will sit where they are.

    I don't think it is all about costs, I believe Warner want a single format but want to be sure that where they go wins. If Warner went HD DVD at the moment (and the cheapo players does not make as big an impact as the HD DVD group predict) then, I don't think HD DVD will definately win, it will just make HD DVD stronger. If the (cheapo) players take off this christmas and then Warner go exclusive it will be a different picture.

    Just my two pennies worth :)
     
  17. Pecker

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    Yes, the large wads of cash might also have an effect. :rotfl:

    Who has the deepest pockets, BTW? Sony, or Microsoft & Toshiba?

    Steve W
     
  18. Sonic67

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    My thinking too. Where's the point in a campaign to buy disks to make your format 'win' if the result is the other side just puts a few more millions on the table? This will be down to which side has the deepest pockets and maybe who Warner might want to win long term.

    Certainly Warner going exclusive would be a major blow for the other side.

    It might be worth buying up Warners disks that you want to own just in case though. They might disappear from the shelves one day.
     
  19. zz101

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    Def - I dont think sales will have much of an impact on the decision - it will be which side can offer the best incentives. I suspect Paramount will make much more from the 'alleged' ;) $150m deal than they would profit from selling either / both formats.

    Also if they did go exclusive and the other format suddenly took off theres nothing to stop then swapping formats once any exclusivity deal runs out.

    The real winners in this are the studios...
     
  20. Brainiac5

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    I was set on buying a HD player soon. The most probable was a Tosh one if they offer the 5 free DVDs in Switzerland. Now I'm not sure anymore. I might just wait until after the shopping season.
    I wonder if the number of similar cases is significant in the grand scheme of things. It probably is not.

    More on topic, I got the feelings that they're inducing a bidding war between Tosh and Sony to get the biggest offer. I wonder how much weight the other issues mentioned in this thread will have.
     
  21. micks_address

    micks_address
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    i guess each camp has good arguments thay they can put to warner.. in sony's favour.. they are sales leader at the moment.. but toshiba have standalone hardware sales lead. (although with the amount of recent standalone machines announced this could be shortlived). and the attach rate is reportedly lower for the ps3 than standalone machines..

    i dont know though.. i guess money talks.. if warners blue rays between now and january outsell HD DVD by 2 - 1 it would surely be a difficult decision to make to go hd dvd exclusive..

    i can understand paramounts decision somewhat.. if they got 150 million as reported in some quarters and the deal is only for 18-24 months again as rumoured.. then they probably looked at the hd market and said to themselves.. well even if we loose half to two thirds our hd disc sales.. we're not going to be loosing out over the next two years as the market is still in its infancy and any revenue lost could be substituted with the purported money from the deal
     
  22. Pecker

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    Warner may well be looking at what other studios do, too.

    Up until the Paramount anouncement, a lot of people suspected Universal wouldn't last long as a HD DVD-only studio. No-one's saying that anymore.

    And no-one in their right minds thinks that Paramount have made a major, high profile decision to go HD DVD-only if they're going to reverse that decision anytime soon.

    With Universal & Paramount being HD DVD exclusive until after Christmas '08 (at the earliest), and with HD DVD players so cheap, it's doubtful that BD can ever actually 'win' outright. There will always be a significant proportion of BD owners who'll be happy to shell out another $150 (maximum lowest price by Christmas '07) on a HD DVD player to get all the Paramount & Universal stuff.

    Warners aren't stupid - they know this.

    But if Disney and Fox go dual-format, that leaves Sony holding the BD fort.

    Will a majority of $150 HD DVD player owners be prepared to shell out an extra$500 on a PS3? As many as $500 PS3 owners are prepared to do the opposite on a Venturer?

    I won't answer that for anyone - that's an unbiased question.

    Warner will certainly be watching the other studios.

    Steve W
     
  23. Greg Hook

    Greg Hook
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    Good discussion so far. I thought this thread would be rife with the usual BS, but thankfully you guys have kept it civil. :thumbsup:

    My personal thoughts are that if Warner go HD-DVD exclusive, then others such as Disney may go dual format. This could then be the death of Blu-ray. Fox may then follow suit. But on the other hand if they go Blu-ray exclusive then both formats would be strong enough to survive together a bit longer.

    But this is all conjecture and no one has any idea really. As others have said the outcome of the sales of the HD DVD Transformers and Bourne Supremacy and the Christmas sales for both formats may well be a good indicator.
     
  24. Pecker

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    I notice the Warner bloke in that interview suggests pricing of players may be important, noting the rapid lowering of BD prices recently and Toshiba's 'aggressive' stance.

    I was quite surprised to see the 3rd Gen Toshibas announced with very similar prices to 2nd gen. I'd have thought they might have wanted to keep going cheaper.

    Maybe they want to leave the sub-$200 to the Chinese, and market themselves as the most experienced CE manufacturer in the mid-market.

    Steve W
     
  25. charliecossie

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    20th Century Fox and region free discs is an oxymoron.
     
  26. Azzin

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    Did you mean Warner?
     
  27. Rom

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    One thing that nobody has picked up on, either here or the AVS forum is the following quote:

    Erm, I think he is mis-informed on this fact because it has widely been reported that there is not even going to be any 1.1 (BD) players let alone 2.0 players released in 2007. Denon are reportedly the first to announce a 1.1 player and that is not until 'early 2008'. Is he misinformed, knows something everyone else doesn't or just talking twaddle?
     
  28. Pecker

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    Currently.

    Ultimately, if some studios want regional coding and others don't, there can't be a lot in it. I don't believe Fox are earning millions more from RC, and Paramount, Warner & Universal are happy to throw this away.

    Remember, HD DVD didn't decide to go RC-free, then twisted the studios arms.

    HD DVD asked the studios if they wanted RC or not, and Universal, Warner & Paramount voted 'no thanks' of their own volition.

    Also, if Warner do go HD DVD-only, and it looks like a HD DVD win, then Fox have to decide: is their desire for RC stronger than their desire to make money out of the new format.

    My personal opinion is that, if this situation arises, they won't find it a very tough call.

    Just my opinion.

    Steve W
     
  29. Greg Hook

    Greg Hook
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    That what I said! Look it says Warner!(well now it does) :rotfl::rotfl::oops:
     
  30. KeanosMagicHat

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    That'll be the Daewoo .....

    They showcased their upcoming 2.0 player at IFA scheduled for worldwide release Q1 2008.

    http://www.blu-ray.com/news/index.php?id=480
     
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