west said:
The Betamax comparison is irrelevant because when people want to buy HD versions their favourite films and can only get them on Blu Ray. Which format are they likely to go with? If I was in the market when the new formats are released I would go with Blu Ray because you know that HD DVD is never going to have every film available on it. Warner Brothers publicly announcing they will support both formats is a huge coup and in time Universal will follow.
The point is not whether those tiltes are available or not, it is rather the consequences of the confusion that two rival formats may cause among the general public. We have to think outside our little "AV bubble". We are informed yes, but enthusiasts like ourselves are in a tiny minority.
The people that will decide the success or failure of a Hi-Def disc format are not the AV buffs, but the average punter that wouldn't know a Blu-Ray from Ray Charles. The same punters whose sole concern re. AV "quality" is can they buy it for £50 in Dixons or Woolworths?
First of all for the format to become successful it will have to be perceived (emphasis on "perceived") as a quantum leap forward from what is currently available. The vast majority of the public that own a DVD player have never seen a decent quality DVD player in action, or heard a quality 5.1 system in action. Nor do they care if they do or not.
In addition, most are watching on screens where the benefit of Hi-Def is not going to be noticeable (or indeed compatible). DVD was successful with the public because of the perceived differences in quality, portability, durability, flexibility and ease of use compared to VHS. All the same reasons why CD was such a perceived improvement over vinyl in the public's mind.
To the majority of the market the new HD formats will be just a DVD with a different name, nothing more, offering no more advantage -in their view- than what they have at the minute. They will be perfectly happy with the quality they get from a standard DVD on their 28" TV set and will not see any reason to splash out on a new piece of hardware let alone start replacing discs.
I really want Hi-Def DVD to succeed as a format, but I'm far from reassured that it's a done deal.
In case you think I'm being unduly pessemistic, consider this. A year or so ago I put the exact same argument over the potential for failure of Hi-Def audio, based on a combination of total indifference from the public married to confusion over competing formats. Many dismissed my fears as totally unfounded or even naysaying, and that everyone would see the light and embrace the superb quality of these improved new formats, blah, blah, blah...
A year later SACD and DVD-A releases have slowed to something less than a trickle. Indeed Sony seems to have quietly abandoned SACD altogether (apparently the future is now DualDisc-shaped folks - so buy, buy, buy!
). R.I.P. Hi-Def audio.
Bear in mind that Sony, Toshiba
et al aren't producing these new formats so that we can all enjoy the benefits and pleasures of superior quality AV. Their prime reason for producing them is so we will buy new hardware and then re-buy the same software we've bought several times before.
If HD DVD and / or Blu Ray aren't embraced -and quickly- by Joe and Josephine public, superior quality or not, they will be dropped like hot-potatoes by the manufacturers, just like SACD and DVD-A have been.
That is why the last issue we need to muddy the waters and threaten uptake is yet another format war.