Time to let the Scots make up their own mind

Discussion in 'Politics & The Economy' started by Cliff, Feb 23, 2014.

  1. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Why can't we allow the Scots to look at the facts and make up their own mind?
    Cameron and his cabinet are on their way to Scotland tomorrow to "warn" of the dire consequences of a split. Is this going to work? Posh Westminster boys talking down to the masses in Glasgow? It will only encourage the nationalists.

    I was talking to a Scotsman yesterday. His opinion was that the union has failed. London is too remote. The North South divide is stark and it's not going to get better. Scotland has to try and go it alone and even if many don't like Salmond, getting independence is the prize and he will be gone, anyway, in a few years.

    The No campaign should stop all negative stories. e.g. Eurovision song contest entry cancelled!
    Facts must be laid out in a clear way without the suggestion of bullying. David Bowie's plea was far more effective.
    Anything Cameron or Osborne might say will only harden the Nationalists
     
  2. Sonic67

    Sonic67
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    If Scotland want independence it's down to the politicians to say what the effect will be.

    Salmond is trying to convince everyone he can persuade everyone he will get what he wants.

    The three political parties and the EU have told him it won't happen.

    It's now down to Salmond to say what his plan B is.

    You can't have independence without politics being involved.
     
  3. Sonic67

    Sonic67
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    Incidentally can we give Bowie another award? I am interested to know his views on the Ukraine.
     
  4. Squiffy

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    I think UK politicians are entirely right to talk about the possible impacts of the break up of the UK.

    Why on earth would anyone think they shouldn't?

    If Scots are so bigoted that they are going to take offence at this, then let them.
     
  5. Bl4ckGryph0n

    Bl4ckGryph0n
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    Maybe he'll let that model do his talking for him ;)

    I'm all up for Scotland making up their own mind. The problem is they are not, every proposal that is coming forward is having a dependency on others. As long as they keep doing that, there is nothing 'own' about it, and they won't be able to make a decision without agreement.

    I also think it is fair that there rest of the union has a say in it. To me it would mean that if they do, they are really on their own. I want guarantees upfront for no future bailouts. And VISA application to enter the UK please :)
     
  6. Trollslayer

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    One scenario is for EU membership every member will have to agree and that could mean no contribution no agreement.
    Pony up!
     
  7. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Of course politicians on both sides have to be clear what going it alone means. But, to a large extent this is already known now. e.g. no pound, defense etc.

    But tomorrow he will talk about Trident, oil and other things.

    Angus Robertson MP, Spokesperson, Scottish National Party Defence has already said:
    "The Parliament and 80 per cent of the people of Scotland want to get rid of Trident, and the obscene waste of up to £100 billion it represents at a time of austerity and savage welfare cuts from Westminster."

    Nicola Sturgeon, Deputy First Minister
    "First and foremost in such a referendum debate should be the UK Government’s brutal welfare cuts – and how David Cameron can possibly justify the Westminster system imposing iniquitous measures such as the Bedroom Tax on Scotland when over 90 per cent of Scottish MPs voted against it."

    Just look at the language Mz. Sturgeon is using:- Westminster tax imposed on Scotland!

    When Cameron +cabinet rolls up tomorrow, is he on an information trip or scaremongering?
    Will it be effective and sway more people to vote to stay? If he thinks it is a charm offensive I think he will fail.
    Would it not be better for the Scottish 'No' campaign to do most of the talking?

    And does the rest of the UK really want a Scotland that does not want to be under Westminster but is staying unwillingly because its too risky to go alone?

    If they do stay, then expect devo max in a few years time.
     
  8. Bl4ckGryph0n

    Bl4ckGryph0n
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    Just shows how out of touch Nicola Sturgeon is...What UK Government brutal welfare cuts...There aren't any...
     
  9. Sonic67

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    Link please? Trident is responsible for a lot of jobs in Scotland. Again it is something that needs debating as to what will be the alternative? Sales of Irn Bru?

    And? Westminster is the home of the UK parliament and Scotland is still part of the UK.

    How about Scottish PMs who caused a deficit England is still paying off?


    Hopefully both.

    A charm offensive won't work. Why should it? You can only promise more of the same anyway. The UK invests lots of money in Scotland.
    They do don't they?
    And you would prefer lots of false promises? "Stay with us and we will grant you billions?" What?
    Isn't that what the referendum is about? Scotland has a choice. No pound, no EU, no investment in Scottish defence projects, it will be independent, or in other words, alone.
     
  10. loz

    loz
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    Goodbye Scotland. Goodbye Labour governments
     
  11. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    Not true apparently ... Scotish labour PMs have not decided a majority in a very long time.
     
  12. WildeKarde

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    The BBC did a poll on the top ten subjects that mattered to Scots and currency was fifth, defence was eighth and EU ninth. They are not high up the concerns.

    Also I noticed the latest poll down over being in the EU had Scots wanting to stay in the but the rest of the UK wanting to leave overall. I'm sure Cameron will use the same arguments for UK and the EU being better together :rolleyes:
     
  13. Sonic67

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    I know. I linked to it in the other thread... :facepalm:

    Oddly you are backing a poll on the BBC which says the currency doesn't matter and at the same time coming out with this this.

    So what poll are you backing? Is currency relevant or not?
    Being in the EU isn't the same as being a part of the UK though. The UK is large enough to survive outside of the EU. Reckon Scotland is big enough to survive outside of the UK and EU?
     
  14. WildeKarde

    WildeKarde
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    Overall I don't really care on the currency used - could be ginger bottles for all it means. From personal experience most folk I know aren't bothered either what the currency is actually decided on as part of the decision,

    I reckon Scotland is capable of surviving outside both the EU and UK, just pointing out the UK argument is Scotland is better in the UK but the UK might be better out of the EU.

    For this thread we have contrasts in Cameron on the one hand saying it's up to Scotland and he won't have any involvement, on the other he's involved in making statements on the no vote and using staged area's like the Olympic stadium as a backdrop.
     
  15. Stuey1

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    They wouldn't be a very effective 'No Campaign' if they were just saying positive things about independence.

    In terms of letting them decide using the facts, surely that is exactly why they are being told that the £ is an unsuitable agreement for currency and there may be issues with EU membership as Spain are not too keen on allowing a newly independent country into the EU in case the Catalonians finally decide they are going for it too...

    They are not stories either, they are realities - if people want to see it as bullying then that's there own opinion and they can use that opinion to vote or they can use the facts.
     
  16. karkus30

    karkus30
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    Its exactly the same as the EU question. If its 'No' to independence it must be 'yes' to Europe. Those wanting out of Europe should not be siding with the stay together campaign. Its a cleft stick.

    All the reason for Scotland to stay with the rest of the UK are exactly the same ones the Europhiles will use in the coming campaign.

    The only reason for Scotland to stay in the UK is the currency union. That's a dubious benefit and a good enough reason to get out. There are no other benefits. Scotland could go it alone and do very well. Its a pity they have a plonker running their country.
     
  17. domtheone

    domtheone
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    :clap:

    :confused:
     
  18. tapzilla2k

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    Nope. Labour is perfectly capable of winning a majority without Scottish MP's. Take away the Scots from the 1997 win and Labour would still have had a comfortable majority.
    There's been quite a bit of research that's gone into it by various electoral experts, along with the impact on the other political parties.

    In another one of his cast off outfits from the '70s.

    The SNP are desperate to win the vote, so are promising lots of things and brushing aside legitimate concerns or political obstacles that will impact upon an independent Scotland. Put simply if Scotland becomes independent then it may face an extremely tough time if say the Spanish block Scotland's attempt to join the EU and we reject a currency union with them.

    When it comes to a Currency Union with an independent Scotland, I believe we should have a referendum over it, across what's left of the UK. I would think the outcome of that kind of vote would be an emphatic no.

    As for the SNP going on about Trident, if that leaves Scotland all the Economic benefits from the Royal Navy etc being based there will vanish eventually, with a lot of job losses.

    Yes Scotland should vote how it wants, but that does not mean we can't point out the negatives and what we won't do. As so far it's Salmond demanding things and threatening not to take on debt etc as a bargaining chip before he's even won the vote.
     
  19. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Devo Max...
    The referendum is about complete independence. That means they become financially responsible. Devo max was all the trappings of self rule and tax decisions but with Westminster picking up the tab. If the vote is No, they could still push for devo max in a few years?
     
  20. Cliff

    Cliff
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    After all the travelling by Cameron and his Cabinet and Alex Salmond there wasn't much substantial talk.
    The discussion about North sea oil is interesting in that Cameron was making out that the UK as a whole can better support the industry?

    If he means better hotels, and links to Aberdeen, fair enough. But he wasn't talking about that was he?
    Governments are not seen as a help to the oil industry. Rather, they take a huge cut of production or tax heavily. A necessary part of doing business.

    If taxes were less, then the oil companies will invest more in exploration, drilling and extraction methods. Tax heavily and its not worth it. Allow the present production to level off in the North sea, and look elsewhere in the world.

    Maybe Cameron has an idea for an oil quango! Now there's a thought.
     
  21. karkus30

    karkus30
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    Its the same argument from a different perspective. Currency union.

    Cheap money fuels exploration and the Government milks the producers and consumers as much as it can. The whole thing hinges on the tax payer paying back the debts.

    What would happen if there was no currency union ? The banks would continue to supply the cheap money and the UK tax payer would pick up the tab. The Scottish tax payer would not be guarantor and Scotland would take all the tax income.

    That's not going to happen. The remaining UK would continue to fund the oil exploration through central bank policy. That would result in a Russian pipeline situation with Scotland refusing access to the oil unless they receive the benefit. That would require some very complex negotiation beyond my meagre brain.

    In a libertarian Scotland they wouldn't take the tax and that would allow the exploration to continue with no cheap money needed ( that's conjecture as I don't know the numbers ). The rest of the UK would lose any direct tax benefit and would need to cut the public sector - which they would already have partly of fully done by no longer providing public services to Scotland.
     
  22. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Actually the Oil industry can be pretty self sufficient. Many countries have oil and their governments do not play a part in the exploration costs.

    Take the example of Ghana. No offshore oil had been found in previous decades. Shell had worked there and even with their experience and success in Nigeria, found nothing.

    Then a small player came along (Tullow) and struck a deal with the government saying, if we discover oil we take 70%.* Considering nothing had been discovered before that was a good deal. Surprisingly in 2010 they got lucky!

    Point of the story is that given the right financial incentives the oil industry will work for you. Tax to the hilt and they will leave. Unfortunately Salmond's socialist spending may in fact require heavy taxing and the industry will not invest.

    The currency that Scotland uses is pretty irrelevant to the oil industry as all costs are in US$ and oil sold is in US$

    *simplified and from memory
     
  23. karkus30

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    Yes, absolutely. I said I didn't know the numbers, but its a private industry where someone takes a risk with shareholders money and drills holes in the sea bed.

    The negatives are taxation and the state of the market.

    Problem with the oil industry as I see it is the market price is falling due to a reduction in demand by cash strapped consumers. These consumers being cash strapped by taxation, green levy's, inflation and debt. The net gain to the oil industry is cheap money to fuel its exploration but a low rate of return.
     
  24. Sonic67

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    If you have just voted for a union it will be a little difficult to then say you want more devolution.

    Governments can underwrite investment. If an industry goes tits up they can step in and bail out. Look at the banking collapse. Lots of independent banks that could all go under but the government is big enough to step in and prop it up again.

    The same with any investment. The government has been throwing money at green energy resources or given tax cuts. Governments can direct investments or break up cartels. This morning the debate was on whether British Gas was too powerful.
     
  25. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Agreed. After voting for a union why would anyone think about more devolution. Very sensible.

    Only fly in the ointment is that many who vote for the union are doing so, not because they love England and want to get closer, but because they are very unsure what the future will be like. Hence, if they vote no, there will still be many unsatisfied Scots who might push for more concessions a few years down the road.

    As for underwriting oil industry investment or bailing out - I don't think that has ever happened? and not likely to. If an oil company gets into difficulty, then there are predators who will snap them up. Watch out BP.
     
  26. Sonic67

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    It's not about "loving England", it's about deciding the union is better than being alone.
     

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