The UK Housing Market, Post Corona March 2020

Tight Git

Distinguished Member
There's an old saying that House Price Forecasters were invented to make Fortune Tellers look good!

Supply and demand will determine prices in housing as in everything else.

Yes, there'll be short term blips, but the general trend will always be upwards, so you can't go wrong.

(A bungalow that I once owned was built in 1968 priced at £12k and is now valued at £800k.)

Good luck to everyone getting on the housing ladder; you won't regret it.
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
Yeah I think you're right..

....was thinking about my current house price ...and my last one ..

They both went up about 10 grand a year...give or take....in value ..that would be going back to 97.

Don't know about the likes of London etc....but for the average town..and for the odd exception I think it's hard to lose money on a house these days .
 

Wil S

Active Member
It may also depend on the house. Speaking to my agent last week, he said a lot of people now seem to be looking for houses with large gardens, plenty of space, fast internet connections and extra rooms for separate home offices. It's possible houses that tick all those boxes may be able to attract close to the pre-pandemic asking price, whereas a London flat with no garden, and a relatively small amount of room could fall in price.
Yes, I've been hearing this too. We tick all of those boxes, so hoping someone comes along soon to get out of London like we did 10 years ago!
 
Yes, I've been hearing this too. We tick all of those boxes, so hoping someone comes along soon to get out of London like we did 10 years ago!
Hehehe same here. It’s definitely how we would advertise our home when we put it on the market.

My home has three desks, white boards, laser printer and copier. Even got a few desktop SIP phones in there. Not only great to work from home but also enough space to have some co working or a small group planning session. And off road parking for 7 cars 🚘

Only drawback could be that when warm and having the windows open your conference calling may pick up the lions roar and elephants trumpet. Oh and some dark shadows from the red kites when they are out hunting.

Yet still no further than 30 miles as the crow flies into Westminster/City. And in between two main train lines where you can get a seat.

OIEO £1.5M please 😂
 

happy_2008

Active Member
Houses around my area usually get sold within a week or two. I'm wondering if this corona virus has affected this by one of the following:

1) Uncertain employment
2) Uncertain house prices
3) Less people wanting to venture out to view

Either way i was looking to move before corona virus but will be keeping an eye out on the housing market.
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
Having just been working out some figures on mortgages ...

Wondered what people's views are on current interest rates ?

Rate at the moment for a no fee fixed deal are around 1.65 percent...think this is after the banks decided to pass a bit of the interest cut on

Thought it might be a bit lower to be honest....

It's bound to go lower .....and with the talk of negative interest rates I've no idea how that works with mortgages..even asked the mortgage adviser on the phone and she didn't know either !?
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
well depends really...i've a few options ......probably around 60 or 70 %

maybe 80/90 .....if i can find a suitably priced flea pit might even be mortgage free !....again!!


will have to go for 18 years or less because of my age
 
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Wil S

Active Member
Interest rates don't seem as good as they could be given the central rate, but they're still amazing on long deals with 60-70% LTV.

After 2007/8 when a few lucky people were tracking below the base rate and ended up getting paid for their mortgages when they got a negative rate, I think all new mortgages have a cap where they can't go negative, even if the base rate does. Other countries (Sweden possibly?) I was reading actually use negative rates on purpose (can't remember why) but people are being paid to have debt!
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
Interest rates don't seem as good as they could be given the central rate, but they're still amazing on long deals with 60-70% LTV.

After 2007/8 when a few lucky people were tracking below the base rate and ended up getting paid for their mortgages when they got a negative rate, I think all new mortgages have a cap where they can't go negative, even if the base rate does. Other countries (Sweden possibly?) I was reading actually use negative rates on purpose (can't remember why) but people are being paid to have debt!

should say i've a £1000 early repayment penalty on my nationwide mortgage...which would be refundable if i take the next one out with them...had a chat with the halifax for comparison.
got nationwide ringing me later to update a mortgage agreement in principle


think one of them dont do trackers anymore...off the top of me head cant remember which one with out looking it up....halfiax i think

have always been fixed repayment and currently thinking of a 2 year deal
 
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Wil S

Active Member
As always you need to compare the cost over 5 years vs a 5 year fix. It sounds like you're going for 2 year fixes without arrangment fees which means the interest rate is higher. Depending on the size of your loan, it may be cheaper to fix for longer and/or pay an arrangement fee.

So many what-ifs though- are you staying forever, or need your options open etc etc...
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
yeah my budget/mortgage is'nt going to make it worth while to pay a grand arrangement fee.

think a 5 /10 year deal is bit risky these days....reason i've an early repayment penalty is because i fixed it for 5 last time ..rather than 2 or 3

currently on about 2.2% i think...might be 2.1
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Last year i signed a new 5 year deal that had a better rate than my previous 3 year deal. I reckon 10 year rates are now better than my current 5 year.

Total madness these crazy low rates. Been a catastrophe for over a decade now.
 

ashenfie

Well-known Member
I suspect as things go forward and people who have been furlough will I suspect struggle to get mortgages. Redundancies are soon to be announced. I sure the government is unlikely to further subsidies house buying with all the other issues out there.

Regardless of rates, the picture is a freeze or downward trend in house prices.

The key indicator for me that by the end of 2019 houses exchanging hand was nearly down to 0%. Start of 2020 there was a slight rise to around 1%. Record lows for sales as 5 years ago it was 5%.

This is important because house price crashes always happen with the price going up but the volume of purchases hitting 0.

Lenders are tightening belts right now ready to weather the storm which is be delayed as the goverment is payrolling everyone.
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
personally i think the whole housing market has been in a desperate need of an overhaul for years.

...the way we buy and sell ..the time and costs involved.

and as for new builds...and the estates they are built on !
.....theres a lot people involved with all that who deserved to be put up against a wall! :mad:
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
A £550k house is still a £550k house in our area. Will be interesting to see if it drops.

Any estimates on when a suspected drop will occur?
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Now for the next 5 years.

There’s one estimate :D

Pure guesswork though. Lets see how long unemployment rises for once the government handouts stop.
 

Tight Git

Distinguished Member
UK house prices 'in first annual fall for eight years'

Well, that was the headline this morning on the BBC website.

The reality?

They've actually fallen by 0.1% compared to this time last year!

How dare they ruin my cornflakes. :mad:
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Yup. Another one of the Beeb's much ado about nothing stories.

Buried in their small print was a bit about it being good for first time buyers.
 

Miss Mandy

Moderator
Not sure how it's good for first time buyers. In my area the smaller properties are the same prices, its the bigger family homes that have dropped very slightly. Also mortgages are not as good as they were pre-coronavirus and larger deposits are required so overall I'd say it's worse not better.
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
Not sure how it's good for first time buyers. In my area the smaller properties are the same prices, its the bigger family homes that have dropped very slightly.
This doesn't surprise me at all. Such homes are prime for the rental market and can comfortably provide an annual 5% return for investors with minimal risk profile even with the punitive stamp duties currently applied. The demand for such investments is likely to offset any significant fall in prices IMHO.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Not sure how it's good for first time buyers. In my area the smaller properties are the same prices, its the bigger family homes that have dropped very slightly. Also mortgages are not as good as they were pre-coronavirus and larger deposits are required so overall I'd say it's worse not better.
Probably all true but the Beeb and house prices are just sound-bights. They dont think in depth.
 

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