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The UK Housing Market, Post Corona March 2020

InvisibleDuncan

Well-known Member
I'm in the process of buying a new-build (exchanged contracts, scheduled to complete at end of May), but have no idea what to expect from hereon in.

On the plus side I part-exchanged my current place with the builder, so at least my price on either side of the deal is fixed.

My son and his girlfriend have just had an offer accepted on a house, which will be their first. I really hope that goes ahead smoothly, although not at the expense of them losing a ton of money if prices tumble.
 

blue max

Distinguished Member
I'm in the process of buying a new-build (exchanged contracts, scheduled to complete at end of May), but have no idea what to expect from hereon in.

On the plus side I part-exchanged my current place with the builder, so at least my price on either side of the deal is fixed.

My son and his girlfriend have just had an offer accepted on a house, which will be their first. I really hope that goes ahead smoothly, although not at the expense of them losing a ton of money if prices tumble.
You don't lose money on a property unless you sell for less than you paid for it. And they are going to use the first time buyers rate for stamp duty (which isn't guaranteed to stay). Mortgage rates are at rock bottom and if they were renting, that is a saving too.
 

LexDiamond

Active Member
Specifically with new builds, there is a risk that prices don’t go down if the developer is in a position to hold onto its stock. Depends on their cash flow, corporate policy, targets etc but some do just hold off selling during short term changes, which is exactly what the pandemic will be.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
That is why I think they will fall, much more so than we ever imagined, because we will see an unprecedented number of deaths sadly.
Don’t think we’ll get to that level but who knows.

Pretty messed up world we live in if it takes thousands/millions dying to give thousands/millions a chance of owning a house :facepalm:
 

ashenfie

Well-known Member
I think the housing market has been propped up with government money. 30% of house prices are simply due to help to buy.

The triple whammy IR35/Britexit/COVID-19 is likely to wipe that 30% off house prices.

Nothing to worry about as it's not real money. If you own hold on and you want to buy hold on. It will hit the economy as equity release plan won't have LTVs required. The big zero being the number of new home being built.
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
Well was expecting to complete within the next week or 2

......not likely to happen now
Just curiously, have you spoken to your solictor/parties involved? whats their forecast?

I think the housing market has been propped up with government money. 30% of house prices are simply due to help to buy.

The triple whammy IR35/Britexit/COVID-19 is likely to wipe that 30% off house prices.

Nothing to worry about as it's not real money. If you own hold on and you want to buy hold on. It will hit the economy as equity release plan won't have LTVs required. The big zero being the number of new home being built.
Buy to lets, foreign investment, multiple home ownership also..

But we still have a major housing crisis, this is the equaliser in my view. The Virus isn't going to knock out say 100 thousand, so we will always be massively oversubscribed.

I think without this, I would agree house prices are going to get nailed after this, but people still need places to live..
 

ashenfie

Well-known Member
COVID-19 aside, I think the older generation have been reducing and so larger houses are coming empty, but younger folk can't afford them. So what's happen in the market is that houses sales are nearing zero.

BRITEXIT cause reductions and slow sales. This is going to be a correction IMHO, but over time a blip rather than a new norm.
 

blue max

Distinguished Member
The danger is, the people writing the outlook on the housing market usually have a dog in the fight. They typically are estate agents, who obviously want to calm the market and encourage the status quo.
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
The danger is, the people writing the outlook on the housing market usually have a dog in the fight. They typically are estate agents, who obviously want to calm the market and encourage the status quo.
Ain't that the truth.

I get 'news letters' from various agents, and the b******s they write is comical.

COVID-19 aside, I think the older generation have been reducing and so larger houses are coming empty, but younger folk can't afford them. So what's happen in the market is that houses sales are nearing zero.

BRITEXIT cause reductions and slow sales. This is going to be a correction IMHO, but over time a blip rather than a new norm.
Not really in the South East, there wasn't much of a slow down until election time, and whatever minimal slow there was was reignited the Boris bounce.
 

ashenfie

Well-known Member
Ain't that the truth.

I get 'news letters' from various agents, and the b******s they write is comical.



Not really in the South East, there wasn't much of a slow down until election time, and whatever minimal slow there was was reignited the Boris bounce.
My friend purchased a house in 2018 and had to 20k over the asking price. Recently another nearby got it for 10k under the asking price nearby. We all share the same train into the city. So a general slowdown. The price started very strongly, but now who knows!
 

blue max

Distinguished Member
I was just ready to buy and a flat I was looking at sold within days for over the asking price. And that wasn't cheap!
It really does depend on the location and actual property. I can't see the demand remaining long term though.
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
My friend purchased a house in 2018 and had to 20k over the asking price. Recently another nearby got it for 10k under the asking price nearby. We all share the same train into the city. So a general slowdown. The price started very strongly, but now who knows!
Not in the South East I imagine?
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
Still no idea if still heading for completion...still not heard back from my solicitor yet..estate agent dealing with not 'in till tomorrow'

Would have thought with the current situation everyone would be easier to contact ?!
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
The triple whammy IR35/Britexit/COVID-19 is likely to wipe that 30% off house prices.
You can add a 4th aspect to that. People won't have jobs and we could be and very likely seeing record numbers of unemployment in a very short space of time.

There are some very tough times ahead indeed.
 

ashenfie

Well-known Member
The job scene is a hard one to predict. While having so many retail outlets/factories closed with no idea if in-fact they will ever open again is a worry, but not a given.

I think many that have come over for work and now find them selves unemployed may well reconsider what is important to them.
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
It a but sad this thread has been moved to the Coronavirus section of the forum, which means we lose insightful input from others into this who would normally avoid the Coronavirus section (I know I do).

Not entirely sure why it was moved as its about the housing market and although heavily affected, not directly related to the virus.

The job scene is a hard one to predict. While having so many retail outlets/factories closed with no idea if in-fact they will ever open again is a worry, but not a given.

I think many that have come over for work and now find them selves unemployed may well reconsider what is important to them.
We may see a huge shift in work to what factories we do have in this country to ramp up production which if this lasts longer than three weeks, we will essentially be draining stockpiled resources.

Still no idea if still heading for completion...still not heard back from my solicitor yet..estate agent dealing with not 'in till tomorrow'

Would have thought with the current situation everyone would be easier to contact ?!
Maybe they got sick!
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
well just had my estate agent on the phone.....apparently solicitors have been hard to contact.. been sending emails but as of yet no replys

...which is handy ..thought as they're all working from home this be quicker

could be a couple of ways to go if if it can be sorted......one is exchange ...but leave the completion date open till restrictions have been lifted
this would suit me to be honest....just want use both to be legally bound to complete when its mutually convenient

appreciated there are bigger problems around at the moment but i'd like to know whats happening...

one less thing for me to be worrying about
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
The job scene is a hard one to predict. While having so many retail outlets/factories closed with no idea if in-fact they will ever open again is a worry, but not a given.

I think many that have come over for work and now find them selves unemployed may well reconsider what is important to them.
It's not hard to predict. Singapore has gone into recession already and a major global recession is on the way.

The impact on cashflow, liquidity and business in general means you maybe working from home at the moment but be out of a job in a months time. We are a heavily geared economy and if circulation and velocity slows down to the extent it already has, then it's bad news. Businesses will be looking to slash costs across the board very soon if not already. They have no other option.
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
well just had my estate agent on the phone.....apparently solicitors have been hard to contact.. been sending emails but as of yet no replys

...which is handy ..thought as they're all working from home this be quicker

could be a couple of ways to go if if it can be sorted......one is exchange ...but leave the completion date open till restrictions have been lifted
this would suit me to be honest....just want use both to be legally bound to complete when its mutually convenient

appreciated there are bigger problems around at the moment but i'd like to know whats happening...

one less thing for me to be worrying about
Obviously with exchanging, heavily legally committed, I'd say the buyer may be needing to stretch this out for a fair while to see any conclusive trajectory, which would be a sensible thing to do imo.
 

johndickinson

Active Member
The Law Society has given conveyancing solicitors the following advice:

Following the prime minister’s announcement on Monday 23 March, a government spokesperson said on 25 March: "Home buyers and renters should, as far as possible, delay moving to a new house while emergency measures are in place to fight coronavirus.

“If moving is unavoidable for contractual reasons and the parties are unable to reach an agreement to delay, people must follow advice on social distancing to minimise the spread of the virus.

“Anyone with symptoms, self-isolating or shielding from the virus, should follow medical advice and not move house for the time being.”

We’ll be publishing further guidance as soon as possible.

Where moves do need to go ahead, all those involved should take care to follow government guidance on social distancing and hygiene. See Public Health England’s guidance for households with possible coronavirus (COVID-19) infection.

If you’re acting for someone who has exchanged contracts and has a completion date within the next few days, and you, your client and the other side are able to proceed, which may be very difficult given the position with removal firms, there’s currently nothing to prevent you doing so.

This is subject to following current guidelines in respect of public health:

  • properties not being occupied with cases (or suspected cases of) coronavirus (COVID-19)
  • occupants not being in a state of isolation, and
  • all parties abiding to social distancing requirements
This is a very high bar and it may not be possible to comply.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
I agree and for all intent and purposes that directive pretty much puts the brakes on house moves for now.

It just goes to show the consequence of one thing ripples across, magnifies and affects the whole sector. Ultimately the whole economy.
 

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