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The UK Housing Market, Post Corona March 2020

Gaslight

Well-known Member
What does everyone think?

We will still be oversubscribed for existing stock, that's for sure, so in some way the stabiliser, but we have needed an equaliser for a while, especially in the South East. The Cornavirus could be that equaliser.

Viewings and listings will reduce in the immediate months - long term, who knows?

Agents, after the crisis period (this could be a month, if not longer) will need to start 'earning' again, and instead of trying to get record figures for properties (capitalising on neccesity like the c^^&s they are) will be trying to get sales, quickly, maybe? Thus more realistic pricing? But will this just mean fewer listings with owners butthurt that prices have dropped?

South East is still red hot, will it see a decline in prices?

Pounds weakness against the dollar is dramatic this past week. Will this have an add on effect (i imagine it will with foreign investors) like we saw in 2008?

Would it be wise to continue with an existing purchase (especially on a new build) in a popular hotspot in the South East or hang fire and wait but knowing the housing supply is already limited?
 

wiz

Distinguished Member
I'd imagine there'd be some sort of realignment / adjustment probably downward
 

Cobb

Distinguished Member
I mentioned it in the stocks and shares thread. My partner and I are aiming to buy our first home this year so I am hopeful for a reduction in house prices. The economy will take a huge hit for quite some time after all of this. Prices will surely fall.
 

TayWax

Distinguished Member
Just bought back end of last year in the South East. Could do without losing a shed load on it within months but fully expect it to happen. No plans to move anytime soon so hopefully won't matter in the long run tho
 

wiz

Distinguished Member
Yes, you must look at it long term otherwise you'd go nuts!
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
Here is a link which whilst it tells you nothing, is sort of tells you everything I.e. no one ever really ever knows


Economy will certainly take a hit but, the government seams determined to ensure that the workers will not take a hit, this in turn will lead to pressure on Banks and BS’s to help house owners and (possibly) new buyers as well.

My view on buying a house is

1) If you are buying for investment reasons only then be wary when buying in an unstable economy

2) If you are buying for a place to live and to enjoy the benefits of owning you own place then just buy as soon as you reasonably can. Life is to short to delay enjoying the benefits that you want and waiting for the ideal moment which might never come simply delays getting to where you want to be.
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
Here is a link which whilst it tells you nothing, is sort of tells you everything I.e. no one ever really ever knows


Economy will certainly take a hit but, the government seams determined to ensure that the workers will not take a hit, this in turn will lead to pressure on Banks and BS’s to help house owners and (possibly) new buyers as well.

My view on buying a house is

1) If you are buying for investment reasons only then be wary when buying in an unstable economy

2) If you are buying for a place to live and to enjoy the benefits of owning you own place then just buy as soon as you reasonably can. Life is to short to delay enjoying the benefits that you want and waiting for the ideal moment which might never come simply delays getting to where you want to be.
1 - Yes, I think new builds at inflated South East prices could be risky as new builds generally lose value in the first couple of years...older houses in hotspots could still be relatively risk free.

2 - Agree, but if you are knowing you are taking on a huge debt, with recovery from that debt taking a long time, and potentially even longer if after a couple of months say 25k has been wiped off it will it damage the enjoyment of living where you choose..but yes, that ideal moment may never actually exist.

I know its impossible to know, but it's definitely good for me to get others perspectives on this, no matter how repetitive they may end up being.
 
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shoestring25

Distinguished Member
I doubt house prices will go down much at all things will just sit on the market for the next 6 months and then 0.1 interest rates will help provide another bubble after this has settled down
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
1 - Yes, I think new builds at inflated South East prices could be risky as new builds generally lose value in the first couple of years...older houses in hotspots could still be relatively risk free.
very good point and like most things swings and roundabouts, I reckon a second hand house works best if

1) you like / want to / can afford / have the time to extensively re-decorate
2) can afford the potential cost of new windows, roof repairs, boiler
3) you think you might want to move in <5 years

and a new house works best if

1) you don’t want to have redecorate, new carpets etc
2) might not be able to afford repairs windows, roof, boiler
3) are fairly certain you won’t be selling for at least 5 years
4) your new build has potential for value add (garage conversion, conservatory, extension etc
 

Gaslight

Well-known Member
very good point and like most things swings and roundabouts, I reckon a second hand house works best if

1) you like / want to / can afford / have the time to extensively re-decorate
2) can afford the potential cost of new windows, roof repairs, boiler
3) you think you might want to move in <5 years

and a new house works best if

1) you don’t want to have redecorate, new carpets etc
2) might not be able to afford repairs windows, roof, boiler
3) are fairly certain you won’t be selling for at least 5 years
4) your new build has potential for value add (garage conversion, conservatory, extension etc
I think the general consesus is, even when not in Coronaville, that new builds need to be retained ideally for five years to cover any losses or costs?

For me, the new build has off street parking. But the lack of soul inside can negate this sometimes.

But if Corona wipes off 40-50k, it would devastate me.
 

BT Bob

Well-known Member
Interesting thread.
We began the year planning on putting my house on the market around Easter - catch the holiday-hunter market, and then downsize to an apartment.
We've taken the decision to put that all on hold for now, as we have no clue what the market will be like.
Thankfully, this is just a "lifestyle" move for us, not essential for work, etc.
 

jassco

Member
Wasn't there another thread on this? Sure I posted in it but it must have been deleted for some reason
 

blue max

Distinguished Member
I'm currently renting and wanting to buy. I think that after about three months, things will become clearer. Many who have been artificially kept employed may find themselves out of work if things don't bounce back quickly enough. Forced sales will drive down asking prices. And people don't tend to buy unless they are feeling secure.
I'm one of the self-employed who has been thrown to the wolves, but that may be addressed soon (hopefully).
But who knows really.
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
i'm hopefully about to complete in the next week or 2....after having my house on the market since last june !

had a sale nearly go all the way..then fell through in late january...then got a cash buyer..

was sweating on this last week as they are an elderly couple...thought 2 or 3 months self isolation could be the muckers on it!
....but i've tried to be pro active and badgering everyone involved with phone calls as it would be everyones interest to speed things along.

really hoping it's not going to go belly up at the last fence !

at the moment looks like i sold at the right time.....not found anywhere to buy yet as i just wanted mine completed and the money in the bank...

there's not much new coming on the market...except loads of flats and ex rental properties (i'm guessing)

assuming landlords are worried about getting their rents and off loading

not the worse thing for me to see house prices fall a bit and good mortgage deals in the next few months
 
It’s hard to predict which way it will go. I mean when there are (hundred)(tens) thousands of deaths one would think it makes available a lot of stock. Add to that the economic impacts and you get a right interesting mixture of those who have been economically impacted very hard, those who made huge profits, and those who operate internationally and can take advantage of the undervalued pound.
Amongst other factors.

Like with most situations where one wants to make money; you make your money when you buy it.

But if you can take a long term view and buy a property that could serve its purpose for the rest of your life; aka a home instead of a house. Then none of this matters in my opinion.
 

Delvey

Distinguished Member
The major difference between this and 2008 is that this is a pandemic. In 2008 the banks nearly went bust. You cannot lend money (for houses, cars, loo roll) if you have none.
Now house prices will possibly fall over the next however months this last (hopefully 1 or 2) but with the low interest rate and the government looking to support everyone I don't think it will be on the scale of 2008
 

Sloppy Bob

Distinguished Member
The thing is, if you are thinking of moving in the same area to a larger house, maybe your house has dropped by 20%.

But so has the one you're looking to buy.

The problem will be selling as a lot of people are going to be financially hurting after this and staying put.
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
thats the thing....lack of available houses will surely push prices up?

...well for anything decent

...not many period houses have come on the market round my way the last few weeks

all new...or newish builds ....60's upwards ...or flats.

theres one quite big area of new builds near me that have'nt sold well the last 12 months....let alone now.
 

reevesy

Distinguished Member
Well in my case at least it could be a buyer's market...

Just to contradict my last post.....just goes to show how many variables come into the equation !

Think this country's entire process in buying and selling houses needs a serious rethink.
 

blue max

Distinguished Member
Couple of other thoughts. I can't see anyone getting a local search done any time soon. The councils will almost certainly be closed for business.

And the massive cost of all this will put up taxation and the unemployment bill to levels we've not seen for a very long time. People's salary will likely be reduced with more people looking for work.

Oh, and don't forget Brexit to sweeten the deal!
 

DOBLY

Well-known Member
The housing market will be at low volumes for at least 3-6 months. After that, there may be a small glut or oversupply of properties come on the market as a result of COVID-19 deaths of elderly single people, but these may be overpriced by relatives hoping for a larger windfall... all of which will drag on to the end of the year when that other housing passion killer Brexit will be the new focus for market inactivity.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Can’t see prices falling much unless it gets a lot worse (6/7 figure poeple dying).

The housing market is much too resilient and has every every man, woman and dog in power doing everything possible to keep prices high.

Maybe stagnation for a year or 2.
 

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