The future is mobile.

Discussion in 'VR Virtual Reality Forum' started by bilbosmeggins, May 19, 2019.

  1. bilbosmeggins

    bilbosmeggins
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    ..... Or, at least, the immediate future is mobile. Just watched a YouTube video (below), where another data analysis was shown. The results are quite telling regarding the “big three”....

    The Index, following an initial spike, sits at the bottom of the public interest pile. This is probably due to many people ruling it out once the price had sunk in, coupled with the later delivery date. The Oculus Rift S is currently generating a marginally higher level of interest, which is not surprising as it’s release date is almost upon us. The Quest, however, is in an entirely different league, when it comes to generated hype. Just check the data.

    Now I know that the data probably isn’t representative of the feelings on here. But we are mostly die-hard vr fans, and very much a minority. It’s catching the general public’s imagination that counts, when it comes to generating a thriving business. And it looks like the Quest is doing just that. And once the Quest is out there, it’s very nature will spread the word faster than PCVR ever will. Being able to take it around to friends and relatives and have it being used by all and sundry with no setting up is a huge thing. Only a handful of people have tried my Rift, partly due to where it’s situated, partly due to me weighing up how careful they’re likely to be amidst the cables and expensive gear. The Quest will be the ultimate party gadget.

    I honestly believe that the Quest is going to become the phenomenon that the Nintendo Gameboy once was. And other companies will see that and want a slice of the pie, further driving mobile vr. Then, once the vr word has become household, we will see the industry looking back to consoles and pc’s. And, hopefully, our high-end sets will then become a priority.

    Your May 18th Oculus Quest Week in NEWS **The...
     
  2. thesnowdog

    thesnowdog
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    Yup. I mentioned this in the mainstream VR thread the other week. Standalone VR will go consumer mainstream, but only when the headsets are under $100 and there are sports events and feature films filmed and broadcast with VR cameras.

    But the industry will still need high end PC VR and the higher end and more expensive and new tech because that new tech is going to be expensive to manufacture, and enthusiasts are happy to pay for a more expensive headset.

    As the tech comes down in production cost it will filter down to standalone headsets.

    In the next 10-15 years we'll also see VR cameras drastically coming down in price too which will be great for weddings and other family events.

    VR is going to be HUGE, this is why Zuckerberg paid $3bn for Oculus.
     
  3. bilbosmeggins

    bilbosmeggins
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    Yeah, it’s a bit sad if it is, indeed, going to take 10-15 years to get the real party started. The way my eyesights going, I might as well strap a couple of bath sponges to my eyeballs. I’ll be well into my dotage by then :(
     
  4. Atmos

    Atmos
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    We’ve had years of mega cheap GearVR and after years of Samsung giving them away with mobile phones we never saw the mass hysteria for VR.

    Then we had Ready Player One put VR in the minds of millions of cinema goers and we still never saw any mass VR adoption even after GO hit stores at £200.

    So now we have a third attempt with a £400 device when probably most people interested in VR already bought GO and got bored of it.

    I’m really not expecting Quest to do any different.
     
  5. bilbosmeggins

    bilbosmeggins
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    I think you’re woefully wrong. But only time shall tell. This time it has sufficient power, excellent controllers and the superb Oculus catalogue backing it up. Which I know doesn’t sit well with you, but the fact remains.
     
  6. Atmos

    Atmos
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    • Thread spoiling
    It’s not just mobile it’s the whole VR market that fails to gain mass market appeal.

    No need to join the Oculus defence league.
     
  7. thesnowdog

    thesnowdog
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    So @Atmos when were you expecting to see mass market appeal exactly? This third generation of consumer VR (the first being in the 80s and the second being in the 90s) only started three years ago.

    Zuckerberg himself said not to expect it to go mainstream for another 10-15 years a couple of years ago.

    And even though it's going to sell a sh*tload the Quest won't go mainstream either. Nobody in their right mind is expecting it to. For VR to go truly mainstream we need to see headsets being available for under a hundred quid/dollars and plenty of non-gaming content. We're nowhere near that happening yet.

    Be patient.

    One thing that we can say for certain now though is that VR has become too big for it to die off the way it did in those first two commercial generations.
     
  8. thesnowdog

    thesnowdog
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    Anyway, back on topic.

    Because you may have missed it I'll quote my own post:

    :D
     
  9. huxley

    huxley
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    Standalone VR needs to get A LOT cheaper before this begins to happen.

    Nail on head.
    The interest in the quest is unprecedented, but like Atmos pointed out the adoption is what matters.
     
  10. aoaaron

    aoaaron
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    Lol kindergarten stuff here.

    Great point from Atmos that maybe the issue isn’t what form of portability virtual reality is in but rather the general public just doesn’t seem that convinced by vr.

    I think the issue is with vr is that it doesn’t serve a defined purpose yet for the general public. I don’t think it’s marketed well or clear enough and that’s partly because we aren’t suRe what it realistically is or isn’t capable of.

    It’s like trying to sell the rift cv1 as a video player. It really isn’t. It can do it, but not very well. Likewise the go was a media consumption device with an lcd screen and had a very half arsed video gaming component.

    I agree with op that mobile vr is definitely the way forwards for mass adoption because a device being portable and visible to the general public in use case scenarios is the best form of advertisement.

    If the quest for example is a good movie player, I can think of many people at work who would buy one.

    Similarly the gaming experiences it offers (such as super hot) will definitely bring people in.

    400 is a steep price tag but I think it’s within reach of most people given other portable devices like the switch haven’t price cut or become dirt cheap yet.

    No doubt it will need a price cut sooner than 12 months to drive sales.

    I personally think if this doesn’t work, then vr might just never be a mainstream thing. It wouldn’t be the first amazing technology to die out eventually. Surely there is also a limit to how far Facebook will keep pushing funding for it. And on the valve side of things, if the index sales wean and their games don’t get bought in the quantities they like, they will kill the product line too like they have with most hardware they’ve produced. No one can deny there is something amazing but also very unsocial and reclusive about strapping a headset to your head and exiting this world. Although I think it’s amazing, we live in a world where the majority of people prioritise looking at their phone every 10 minutes and being most concerned about what they look like.

    I personally think vr will succeed though.
    But these awful big headset designs like the rift s and valve index won’t help us. People like sleek and fashionable.
     
  11. thesnowdog

    thesnowdog
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    There's no doubt in my mind that VR will eventually go mainstream but it's going to take time.

    Nobody in their right mind has expected VR to go mainstream in three years, Zuckerberg said 5, 10 or maybe even 15 years before it happens.

    As with everything else content is what's going to drive adoption, generally every new media that the porn industry adopts becomes successful - VHS videos, DVDs and Blu-rays were all successful due to widespread support from the porn industry and VR will be exactly the same.

    People tend to forget that gaming and porn are only minor parts of VR use, we also have social media, sports events, films, education, training and general work/office adoption too.

    Like I've said in a previous post VR is too big for it to die off. If Valve stop manufacturing and selling VR headsets tomorrow there'll always be someone else ready to jump in with a new headset.
     
  12. Atmos

    Atmos
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    Its easy for us on the inside to look out and expect everyone else to follow suit. But we had the 3DTV phase that was supported by nearly every motion picture studio and TV manufacturer. 3D movies brought a whole new level of emmersion yet when it came to home adoption the general public didn't buy it.

    Now here we are all over again expecting the general pubic to adopt VR. Theres no question we love VR and see its merits the same way enthusiasts saw 3D movies. But I just don't see whole swaths of society clamering to buy it. Sony Play Stations only sold 80million PS4s world wide yet we live in world were the population is 7 billion. Why would we expect VR to be more popular than Play Station?

    My view on Mobile VR is not a bash on Oculus, it's a look on the posibility of VR becoming more popular than the most popular gaming system which in the grand scheme of things isn't that popular. After all the evidence of years of 3DTV, DK1, DK2, Rift, Vive, GO, Focus and all the bits inbetween theres never to my knowledge been a huge upswing in VR sales.

    After 3 years of price drops the Steam Hardware Survey shows PCVR adoption still below 1% of all users. 100% still use Monitors. It would take another 30 years at its current rate of growth to hit just 10%. Are we going to bash this arguement until then? because I don't think I'll be alive in 30 years.

    So when we get so heated over whos better than who, its all just a storm in a teacup imo.

    I'm all open to Quest being a success - good on Oculus and Facebook for doing a great job. If people go back to the other Forum I never had a bad thing to say about Santa Cruz I always said it was the best way forward for Oculus rather than a closed eco system on PC. But do I see Quest as a mass market product? no. VR in my mind will always be for a proportion of the gaming market and gamers make for a small proportion of the population.
     
  13. thesnowdog

    thesnowdog
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    You're too focused on gaming. 3D TV failed for a few reasons:

    1) It wasn't 3D, it was effectively 2.5D.

    2) The porn industry didn't support it.

    3) The video game industry, apart from a few titles here and there, didn't support it.

    4) 3D TV would NEVER have got down to a sub $100/£100 price for mainstream consumer adoption.

    5) There were no office and training opportunities.


    3D TV couldn't be more different than standalone VR.
     
  14. Atmos

    Atmos
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    Not really too focused on gaming because I included GO. Oculus themselves said 80% of people who’s buy GO do it for movie watching but I’m sure Porn comes into that at well. If you look on Amazon - Vive outranks GO so the conclusion you have to make is price and Porn has had no affect on sales.
     
  15. TheAdmiralCS

    TheAdmiralCS
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    sigh - come on people. Stay on topic will you.
     
  16. TheAdmiralCS

    TheAdmiralCS
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    I have given atmos a week off from posting here, in the hope that he can take the time to reflect etc.

    I would urge others too to please utilise the ignore function if necessary.

    I'm not going to put up with any more infighting, it makes you and the forum area look bad and I'm certain none of us want that.

    Please get back on topic consistently and there'll be no reason for me to bring the mod-hammer here again.
     
  17. aoaaron

    aoaaron
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    Kind of crazy man. I think in this case, he was raising really valid points from non Oculus-quest tinted glasses. He actually made me realise just via debate and discussion that for the Rift S or Index to appeal to the mass market, it will need an associated console sold with the device because GamingPC-uptake from the public is still low despite the myriad of benefits it offers over console gaming.
     
  18. TheAdmiralCS

    TheAdmiralCS
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    Thanks for the input. He does raise many valid points very often, but this isnt an isolated incident where the bad outweighs the good. Anyway, its done now and he can ask for a second opinion if necessary and I have indeed pointed him in that direction.
     
  19. Jimster71

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    I think locomotion issues and motion sickness is a big barrier to mainstream VR uptake.
     
  20. thesnowdog

    thesnowdog
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    Nope. Motion sickness and locomotion issues won't be involved in mainstream VR adoption because mainstream VR adoption for the average household won't involve playing video games.

    Mainstream VR adoption will involve use in the workplace and non-gaming entertainment at home.
     
  21. MikeKay1976

    MikeKay1976
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    I agree the long term futurw is mobile but the in immediate future isn't.... Not for me at least and that is who I care about ;)

    Non gaming I actually think AR has a bigger role to play than VR. Something like Google glass has far far more utility for every day use than VR. In the future i expect the technologies to merge
     
  22. jjgreenwood

    jjgreenwood
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    You must be forgetting Nintendo's own VR headset that was supposed to be as popular as the gameboy....... the virtual boy

    Why Nintendo's Virtual Boy Was An Epic...
     

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