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The End of the Summer Blockbusters?

Discussion in 'TV Show Forum' started by Azrikam, May 17, 2004.

  1. Azrikam

    Azrikam
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    I guess it says a lot about how much I enjoy the suffering of others, but this article really put a smile on my face. :thumbsup:

    Troy's Achilles Heel

    Here's a summary if you don't want to read it:
    Troy
    Cost: $175 M
    Opening Weekend: $45 M

    Van Helsing
    Cost: $160 M
    Earnings to date: $85 M

    Now, I know that this is just the US market and international showings play a big part, but keep in mind the rule of thumb often espoused: "a film needs to earn double it's cost to break-even." (chalked up to the costs of distribution, marketing, etc)

    Are people finally wising up to the summer blockbuster scam? (ie, hype the heck out of a mediocre film with big name stars in the hopes of making a fortune) We are seeing more and more of this with regards to big films: Opening weekend numbers are huge, then a massive dropoff as word of mouth trickles down to the people who don't do any research before spending their money at the box office. Van Helsing, for instance, was down a whopping 61%. From the reviews I've read and word of mouth, I fully expect a huge drop-off for Troy next week. And many of us will remember some of the huge drop-offs from last summer. (record-breakers, I think)

    Now I don't doubt Van Helsing will make its money back through the rest of its run, DVD sales, toys, etc; but it's no blockbuster. And it looks like the investors of Troy might not even make their money back.

    As a fan of smaller cinema, I think this is a good trend. It's becoming more and more difficult to see quality films nowadays as the screens are all full of mass-marketed drivel. What do you think?
     
  2. Mr.D

    Mr.D
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    2 films do not a trend make
     
  3. eviljohn2

    eviljohn2
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    I was about to say the same thing. Lets see how Spiderman 2 does before making too many conclusions.
     
  4. Garrett

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    As you mention toys and DVD sales has a large part in the final figure. Is the $45 million for the US only? If it is well OK it is not what say Spider-Man and X-Men opened to but there is still time to go.
     
  5. runningback

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    well you gave two examples there, one (Van Helsing) i wouldn't mind if i would
    never see anything like it again,
    on the other hand if Summer Block Busters are like Troy then you can give
    me one every couple of months or so.....

    according to this article Troy does quite well....
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/articles/news/?id=040516bo.htm
     
  6. CrispyXUK

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    Then Episode III after that
     
  7. Azrikam

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    I admit, the thread title was a little inflated. Still, what better way to kill some time stuck in an office on a sunny day. ;)

    Yeah, these two films aren't going to be box office bombs, but both have fallen below expectations. Troy's spin-doctors are denying that the film will drop off sharply next week, but I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't.

    I realise that it's far too soon to nail down something like this, but we can dream, can't we? :D This was noticeable last summer, so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on the box office receipts this time around.

    Of course, if summer blockbusters fail to boost the coffers of the studios, they'll just blame the drop on piracy and sue filesharers to recoup their losses. :censored:
     
  8. fluffrick

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    Perhaps the best we can hope for is that enough paying punters tire of seeing crappy, one-note summer no-brainers and vote with their wallets by taking in the better stuff out there.

    Just because a movie costs a hell of a lot it doesn't necessarily follow that it's going to be dumb and disposable - I hate to be predictable and cite Mr Jackson's humble trilogy, most of "Minority Report", or the "X-Men" movies, but these are examples of movies which cost a pretty penny and had the odd braincell to rub together.

    Having said all that, my favourite movie of this year has to be "Shaun of the Dead", which delivered more entertainment to me in five minutes than two hours of "Van Helsing". And which probably cost as much to make as the premiere of Stephen Sommers' goofy monster-fest.
     
  9. FoxyMulder

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    DVD Revenue and international box office receipts are now taken into account when making big budget film's so these films will make a profit.
     
  10. GrahamC

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    The sales of the DVD and toys are now the greater part of the balance sheet so the budgets will get bigger.
     
  11. jay75

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    they are not likely to lose money with DVD sales increasing every single year combined with re releases of special editions, extended editions, director's cuts etc ...blockbusters are probably blooming not dying... cinemas are the ones dying I reckon!
     
  12. Tardis

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    We have Thunderbirds in July at the Cinema...Hit or Miss?

    Whatever the outcome at the Cinema, I'm sure the Merchandise will be HUGE.
     
  13. Wasabi

    Wasabi
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    To date info and some predictions of mine.

    BTW , when you mean summer block busters, is it action films you mean? Or just big films like Shrek2 as well?

    I've also noticed that films that they hope to become a big blockbuster has a strategy to have a worldwide launch at nearly the same time, mostly within a month or so. Shrek 2 doesn't but I think that is more due to the time translating to the local languages versions.

    The Day After Tomorrow
    Budget $125,000,000
    Marketing $50,000,000
    Earnings $332,344,814 Worldwide
    Weeks released 3
    A better profit maker for Fox than Troy for Warner

    Troy
    Budget $185,000,000
    Marketing $50,000,000
    Earnings $390,704,418 Worldwide
    Weeks released 5
    Will make a profit for Warners

    Shrek 2
    Budget $75,000,000
    Marketing $50,000,000
    Earnings $358,833,317 Worldwide
    Weeks released 4
    A huge profit maker for Dreamworks/UIP, as majority of the countries hasn't even had premiere yet!!!

    Van Helsing
    Budget $160,000,000
    Marketing $50,000,000
    Earnings $245,389,795
    A loss maker for UIP if it wasn't for the dvd sales later on

    Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
    Budget $130,000,000
    Earnings $271,475,042 Worldwide
    Weeks released 2 - OBS, only 2 weeks so far.
    It doesn't seem that it will make as much as the predecessors, as in US its sales already dropped 63% the following weekend. But still a nice earner for Warner.


    Just to give you a contrast of a small film that is a success story

    Passion of the Christ
    Budget $30,000,000
    Earnings $599,025,697 and still counting
    Weeks released 16 - I know doesn't really count as summer bb.

    I hope independent movie Fahrenheit 9/11 by Michael Moore will earn a lot, he deserves it big time.

    As you guys say, the dvd rental/sales hasn't even started yet.

    And for the rest of the summer with big worldwide launches we still have;
    *Spider-Man 2 - Budget $210,000,000 - a sure big hit for Sony
    *I-Robot - Budget $105,000,000 - Will Smith, could be a Bad Boys/enemy of the state hit level for Fox
    *Alien vs Predator - Budget not known - success story for Fox?
    *Around the world in 80 days - Budget $110,000,000 - I think Jackie Chan has enough star power now to pull in nice money for Disney.
    * The Village - Budget not known - Shyamalan tends to make blockbusters (sixth sense, signs), another one for Disney?
    * King Arthur - Budget not known - Disney's summer 2004 adventure film, it won't rake in as much as Pirates of, we'll see how it goes.

    Finally, I reckon Thunderbirds will be a miss.

    Sources
    -Marketing costs - boxofficemojo
    -Earnings - imdb

    Wasabi
     
  14. eviljohn2

    eviljohn2
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    Garfield's out this summer too. Although from what I've seen, they've taken everything that's good about the comic strip out of it :(
     
  15. Wasabi

    Wasabi
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    I doubt Garfield can pull in $80m in US to break even the costs, however, it should do well overseas, making it a $200m film.

    Warner have a lot of trust in their $100m block buster, which I forgot to mention, Catwoman. It is predicted to open in 3300 theaters in US, which is only around 125 screens less than say Troy and Day After Tomorrow.

    And to give you other examples to compare

    Spider-Man 2, 3700 screens
    I, Robot, 3000 screens
    The Village, 3200 screens
    Alien vs Predator 3000 screens
    King Arthur, 3200 screens

    Wasabi
     
  16. Azrikam

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    Yeah, Garfield looks to be a big stinker. Everything I've heard about Catwoman leads me to believe that this film is a huge trainwreck.

    Good point about worldwide debuts. That's one of the benefits of movie piracy. Studios are forced to debut in as many markets as possible to reduce the impact of pirate DVDs.
     
  17. Garrett

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  18. eviljohn2

    eviljohn2
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  19. Garrett

    Garrett
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    Only one to come to mind is David Banner instead of Bruce Banner in The TV series of the The Increadable Hulk. Whereas Catwoman’s real identity was Selena Kyle not as in the film Patience Price.
     
  20. Azrikam

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    :offtopic: I remember when Peter David was writing the Hulk and he made fun of that. Apparently, Bruce was too feminine a name for the TV producers. :rolleyes:
     
  21. Wolvreen

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    Lets all boycott the Helsing DVD - teach the arses a lesson. Let them make a loss.
    When you see it appear on Amazon etc then add a poor review ASAP.
     
  22. Jonny1973

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    The trailer looks dire. It's aiming for a kiddie audience.
     
  23. Jonny1973

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    Blockbusters are no longer just summer fare.

    What about Titanic, Lord of the Rings, James Bonds, Harry Potters 1 and 2? They were all released in the Winter.

    King Kong is out Christmas 2005.
     

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