lillmap
Established Member
Biden seems to be transforming himself into Forrest Gump, and America into another version of we don't care less Trump version of America.
We have Afghanistan deserted because he thought Americans were dying there - when only one had in the last year. Result 8 million starving Afghans, human rights collapsing and a return of al queda, and ISIS,
We have The Ukraine - where the rhetoric is we will meet our treaty commitments to ensure the sovereignty of Afghanistan, but the response has been just to offer to try for economic sanctions and offer aid after the country is invaded, while the immediate response is to send machine gun bullets - to fight Russian airpower, artillery and tanks., with suggestions something more useful might arrive after the event.
Nothing is being done to deter Russia - even though articles are appearing from past US policymakers in the Washington Post detailing how similar threats were deterred in the past - by rendering Russian action impossible with tiny numbers of Americans sent on non combat missions to get in the way- One example being Georgia - where a Russian advance further south in 2008 halted after American aid aircraft arrived on Georgian airfields, and a US navy ship made a port visit to a town the Russians were advancing near.
And now Biden is passing on the Iranian nuclear bomb programme. The US and Europeans have decided Iran is wasting time, and giving nothing necessary. in the talks on controls, to enable the programme to be stopped and monitored, Even the Germans have said that they see no progress , and time is fast running out. Iran has now made more Uranium enriched to 60% and is nearer a bomb than ever. Israel has decided that if Iran goes the last step , and further enriches to 90% - the ability to make a bomb will be imminent. Its design will probably helped by joint work on the North Korean bombs - which Iran helped fund. As Iran has threatened to destroy Israel, and Israel is hyper vulnerable to a nuclear attack given its small area, Israel has now set a deadline for an agreement, after which it will act militarily to stop the bombs emerging.
Israel has since moved to a rolling series of exercises against a regional war started by Iran, if its programme is attacked, And Israel will be running practice attack exercises in the spring. Its PM has also been off to see the leaders of Jordan, the Gulf States, and Egypt- who effectively form a coalition of Israel and most Sunni states- who also can't live with an aggressive nuclear armed Iran.
The US response is reportedly that they won't veto an Israeli attempt to deal with the problem . US military chiefs have told Iran that the US may act itself. But the Biden administration seems to be moving to let the Israelis deal with it alone - even though the US alone has built the heavy weapons and aircraft to carry them ,to reliably deal with the bunkers Iran's nuclear facilities live in. America it seems will give Israel the money to deal with the repairs after Iran hits back , will help treat the Israeli casualties, will beef up Israel's air and missile defences against Iranian attack, and will replenish any aircraft losses the Israelis take,.
This potentially is Biden opting out of any role in world security - not least because serial doing nothing undermines US credibility to do anything , to deter anyone else, or to reassure allies. It also here creates a situation where America would eventually have to either step in and deal with a massive war in the region, or see the world's oil supply and economy disturbed badly by military action . And, if the local's attempt to stop Iran was unsuccessful , we may see US allies in the region racing to to build their own nuclear weapons before Iran did.
We could have covid , followed by a crisis with Russia, and then the biggest war in the Middle East - with the biggest economic effects of a war there, since the slump of 1973, and then a nuclear arms race throughout the Arab world. All because Biden can't bring himself to make Iran an offer it can't refuse, or deal with the issue as his planners have prepared for for the last decade.
Trump had already announced May pull out from Afghanistan. Albeit Biden delayed it and thus owns it. He should have kept the May date.
Iran nuclear - Trump unilaterally pulled out thus giving Iran the reason to start enriching. Biden is trapped with Trump's decision and simply cannot reverse it totally without Israel (undeclared nuclear power) and US Israeli crying bloody murder. Historically, ME crisis with Iran is US/UK creation when CIA overthrew a nationalist democratic government to put the laps dog Shah in power just to protect its oil corporations. Every country has the right to defend itself in any way it sees fit. Let's not forget US reaction when USSR placed missiles in Cuba. Or why has the nuclear powers given up their nukes and exempts themselves from the NPT?
Ukraine and Russia today is much ado about nothing. Both Putin and Biden needs a distraction for their internal reasons. Russia does not need start a war they can literally freeze Europe and Ukraine this coming winter just by limiting its gas exports to Europe through Ukraine and the under sea pipe between Russia and Germany.