On a facebook group I'm a member of we're starting a £10 - £10,000 challenge. It involved picking a bet of 1/10 or better i.e. 1/8 or 1/6 etc and sticking a tenner on. Tomorrow, assuming a win then the whole amount goes on another 1/10 so £11. After 74 bets, assuming you had the balls you'd have £10,000 This is just a bit of fun but could be quite interesting. Anyone fancy it? Today's bet is Ipswitch +3 (alternative handicap) 1/6 on bet365. I think this is allowed here isn't it mods? Cheers!
It probably won't work though unfortunately, the bookies know what they're doing. Even say a 1/10 bet had a 9/10 chance of winning, the odds of getting 74 in a a row are 9/10 to the power of 74 = 0.0004 (or 1 in 2500)
Yep, it's a long shot but you don't have to stay in right until the finish. In fact, I can't see many putting £9000 on a 1/10 shot Of course, there are no certainties in life, especially in gambling but it should be interesting!
By my calculation you need to get 74 bets right in a row to turn £10 into £10000 if you win 10% each time. Good luck with that Edit> and in fact you already know that
+3 is the handicap so it's like Ipswitch starting with a three goal lead. Whatever the final score, add three goals to Ipswitch total. So, if they lose 2-1 then I'll win, if they lose 3-0 then it's a draw and I'll lose.
There's nothing like a sure bet unfortunately. Take some of the bizarre football scores this season. Who would have bet that Man U would trash Arsenal 8-2 and then lose to City by a similarly crazy score.
So really it's saying for every seven games between these teams, if Ipswich always had three free goals, they would (still manage to) not win one of the games. (no doubt Iccz will tell me I've got odds wrong )
I kid, I kid although your post isn't totally correct as you are using betting odds to imply event odds
Not far off, but still. If you look at the odds for Birmingham winning and a Draw in the betting they will more than likely not add up to the result you'd expect given the Ipswich winning odds (I've not checked as betting sites at work isn't a good idea). Horses is a good example as the odds change without anything happening in the event, it's purely swings based on betting patterns. The bookie wants to make a profit so the odds will usually reflect to a degree the chances of something happening, with online betting now the odds are more effecient, but still they are calculated so that most of the time the bookie still wins. Take a coin toss for example, I'll use decimal as it's easier to show it that way. We will agree that a coin toss is a 50/50 chance of heads or tails (2.00) with a bookie they will probably offer you something like 1.95, that way they will make a profit of 0.05 per flip, ensureing them staying in the green - though with the current market bookies do offer bets that put them in the red to make the market attractive, but increases risk.
Yes the betting odds will have the spread included, but you should be able to infer the event odds from the betting odds.
I've decided to rethink my betting strategy for 2012, along the lines of going for safer odds but less returns. In the past week, I'm nearly £200 up. Last night, £18 back on a fiver again. I'd have turned my nose up at that before, I was chasing the big wins.
I've been doing this on another forum a bet a day - under or around 1.03 (1/33) - trying to stick to a single bet a day rather than chasing loads in one day. We did have a long thread in the sports section about this a while back Anyway 14 days in so far so good. Yes its tiny small returns but it's a bit of fun.
I'll try this I think. Be a bit of fun. Although once I get to something like £100 I'll probably start again at £10.
Today's bet placed. £11.67 on Fenerbahce to beat Konya Sekerspor in the Turkish Cup. Konya are a couple of divisions lower so it would be a big upset if Fenerbahce didn't win this one.
Another day is done - day 16 Slow and steady Napoli v Cesena was today's and amazingly Cesena scored early doors despite being a 20/1 underdog to win the tie!! Who cares - a goal is a goal. It has got me serious thinking mind you - Should i be doing this with £1000 starting balance?? Another 4 days should see me thru the 100% profit mark. So that's approx 20 bets on almost (bar one 1.09) every bet under 1/25 or so. £1000 every 20 days - i could handle that!! I know i'm risking £1k if it goes wrong etc etc - but i'll see how my "experiment" goes. For this one i'm just going to keep going as far as I can.
For sure! I thought I was on a slow burner but if you've got the patience to play those odds then clearly the chances of losing are lower. Day three tomorrow. My spreadsheet is
I am defiantly giving this ago. With bet in play there are some good games to bet on. P.s guys who have spreadsheets already set up if I PM my email could someone send me a copy?? Ta
Think I will do a few extra bets on this one. Once I double my money, I will take my original tenner out this way if I do make it 50+ bets plus I won't mind losing as its money I never really had.