'Stalemate' predicted for high-def DVD war

Discussion in 'Blu-ray & DVD Players & Recorders' started by Tejstar, Aug 11, 2006.

  1. Tejstar

    Tejstar
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    The BBC have an article regarding some research out from Screen Digest that suggests the upcoming format war to be a stalemate. The report suggests that uptake will be small given that many of the features are the same as DVD's (apart from the better resolution and sound quality).

    There is also a poll on the Technology site asking 'Will you buy high-def DVDs?'. Not surprisingly currently 58.13% are saying 'No'.
     
  2. gingerone

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    I think it's probably going to be a fair prediction in all honesty.
     
  3. Rasczak

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    I entirely agree with that. I honestly am surprised when people/companies are predicting a massive take up. DVD was massively popular due to the fact it offered CD style access, with special features, replaced clunky old VHS and offered an improvement in PQ that you could see on just about any decent screen. By contrast High Def discs (of both flavours) offer better picture to those with suitable screens. And by a suitable screen you can rule out 32" or under. And, although I have never tried, I can't image there is a massive difference on screens under 42" either. But even among home cinema fans it seems screens smaller than this are the norm (checkout the poll here). So who's going to buy the new formats: home cinema fans with big screens and projectors. And that's about it.

    I know BluRay fans are hoping the PS3 will drive sales of BD discs to the 'average joe'. I can't see it myself. 9/10 of users will have TVs that won't benefit from high def so they may buy one disc, see no benefit, and never buy another. To the 'average joe' lending their discs to their friends and 'ripping'/making backups is probably more important than a format that only plays on their PS3. The same can be said for HD DVD on the 360. Ergo the only users who will really use their console for high def playback are...home cinema fans with big screens and projectors.

    Now there is definietly enough home cinema fans with big screens and projectors to make the industry worthwhile. However I should imagine both HD DVD and BluRay will co-exist as niche products much as DVD-Audio and SACD have done. I should imagine they will be more successful than those two failed formats: I should imagine releases will be more forthcoming and back catalogues will be released. However I don't believe either format will 'replace' DVD.
     
  4. rover2002

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    If both sets (versios)of moives (HD/BR)had been done in VC-1 codec i would agree.BUT they have not, and as soon as people see some of the diffrences they will have one question, why on earth is BR so much more expensive than HD? The war will be decided on studio support and word of mouth, oh yea and that other small thing called 'quality'.
    Will.
     
  5. Tejstar

    Tejstar
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    I agree, I think DVD still has a long shelf-life ahead of it. There may be a point say in 5 years time, where a unified format exists (or combi players are ubiquituos), where high-def DVD's really kick-off with the consumer but I can't see Joe Public buying into the formats while there is still so much confusion around.
     
  6. W1zz

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    Article on BBC website - Last Updated: Friday, 11 August 2006, 09:37 GMT 10:37 UK

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4782953.stm

     
  7. gingerone

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    From speaking to friends in work, most people just don't care.
    Dvd still looks very good and will be around for a very long time yet.
    I can't wait to get my hands on hidef(which ever format) but I am far from the norm.
     
  8. Rasczak

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  9. rover2002

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    There no doubt about it, dvd looks so much better than it did when first released, but it still leaves you feeling like, well you know. . . could this be better?
    Show your friends a movie on your A1(if you get one)and then ask if DVD is still 'good enough'.:) I have to admit i sound more and more like a fanboy everyday but really once you see the images its hard not to!
    WIll.
     
  10. BertyUK

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    Which ever format has more Hi Def P0rn titles will win:devil:
    worked for vhs right?
     
  11. ykhan16

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    I agree that both HDDVD and Blu-Ray will probably coexist for many years. DVD -> HD is not the huge leap we had with VHS -> DVD. Add to that the fact that not alot of people are terribly knowledgable about HD even though they're buying HD ready equipment! :confused:

    So its all pointing to a slow take up on the hi-def dvd formats- so neither of the formats will die suddenly and horribly like we would hope! Bad news for those waiting to see which will win before investing in a player! :thumbsdow
     
  12. Roughneck1

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    Personally i think HD DVD on which ever format will not really go past "die hard" / "Laserdisc owner" type of customer base.
    i cannot see general public wishing to upgrade from standard DVD anytime soon.
     
  13. Pinko

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    The uptake of Sky HD has been very good from 'average joe', so they ain't as slacked jawed as we may think. Within 5 years normal DVD's will start to disappear imho.
     
  14. Rasczak

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    But who are first to adopt? Home cinema fans with big screens and projectors! These are the people who have invested in SkyHD so far. The same people who have so far made adoption of HD DVD faster growing than DVD at the sametime in it's lifespan. But that doesn't mean growth will continue into the same, rapid mass market appeal that we have seen from DVD.
     
  15. inzaman

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    Maybe they need to sell it differently to the mass market by say putting far more interactive features on the disk etc (assuming thats what the mass market wants), i.e. look at all this space on the disks not only do you get better pq but it is also far more interactive so you can go straight to a making of or how do they do that scene for any scene in the movie etc, links to the filming locations and even booking a holiday at these locations etc, making use of the net capability.
     
  16. figoagogo

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    I think the uptake on SkyHD has been high as it shows a big improvement of SD TV, however I dont think that kind of improvement can be seen from DVD to HD, unless on a large screen.

    DVD has more than 5 years left in it, but will then be surpassed by HDvideo on demand/dowloaded HD movies etc. I think DVD will be one of the last (successful) physical formats - it may also stay around in a collectable form (like Vinyl) due to all the art work, extras etc as people will want things to own rather than just a movie file. Maybe? :confused:
     
  17. Tejstar

    Tejstar
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    I'm sure digital distribution is where everything is headed eventually although I don't see that happening for some time yet. If one film takes up 50GB say, imagine what kind of hard disk you would need to match your current DVD collection! :eek:
     
  18. ykhan16

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    Oh i'm sure in 5 years time we'll all have access to de-centralized hard-drives with more space than we could possibly fill! :D
     
  19. Mr.D

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    I still regard high defintion as being of little interest to the masses, The percieved advantage of high defintion on sub 40" screens at normal viewing distances is subtle to say the least.

    high defintion is going to be niche until its uptake becomes inconsequential to the consumer ...in exactly the same way that nicam was.

    I also think the article is biased towards blu-ray , any tehnology journo worth their salt would be in with the talons on the demonstrably inferior ,yet twice as expensive format. Similar to the anti-xbox pro-playstation stance the BBC website has taken in the past.

    And the combined output of the studios that have signed up for hd-dvd is significantly larger than the output of the ones that are solely supporting blu-ray. Its innacurate to suggest its badly supported and only someone with little knowledge of current film production would suggest as much.
     
  20. AgentCool

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    I think the best way of introducing either format is through hybrid discs. If a company such as Universal gradually made all their DVD releases hybrid with HD-DVD but only charged the usual amount then people would buy them. Then, when people who have bought these discs decide to buy a HDTV, they'll have the HD version of the films they've bought as well.
     
  21. Rasczak

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    An important point that many people miss :lesson:

    Have to admit I am warming to the idea of combo discs. I was originally dead against them as I thought picture and sound would be compromised. However the current combi disks, or at least the ones I've seen, have proven this not to be the case with both the DVD9 side and HD DVD15 getting the attention and giving the performance you would expect. And ultimately it is quite handy to still have a disc you can play on your other DVD players (laptop/upstairs/whilst travelling etc). They need to get a DVD9/HD DVD30 combi disc produced though if they are to make more of this feature (I understand they are on the way)!
     
  22. Mr Jolly

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    I must admit I'm partial to the idea of combo discs as long as they do them day and date on new releases - I can't see the point of the back catalogue releases though.

    I think ultimately these formats will stay a niche market, you only have to look at how many people are happy buying pirate DVDs and don't even buy legitimate releases. What are the chances of these people buying HD releases when they think that a copy is as good as it gets?:rolleyes:
     
  23. Henryslater

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    I think the most salient point on this posting so far is the 'last of the physical format's' qoute.

    I agree that 'on-demand' services will kill physical formats - look at the services provided for mobile phones - that's the future.

    Actually owning a physical piece of music/film (data) will be regarded as quaint....

    On demand Super HD movies, SACD music, interactive shopping and telecommunications provided on your own 'centralised' storage area via 500Mhz wireless networks.

    All your's from GoogleSoft.com for £20 per month.

    It's for the kidz man!;)
     
  24. Rasczak

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    You wouldn't need files as big as 50GB - use state of the art VC1 and you can compress most films down to under 12-14GB with a single soundtrack. Furthermore purchase of video download could employ a system similar to Steam, i.e. once you've paid for something you can download, watch it, delete it and, if you want to watch it again, download it again free! This negates the need for the end user to have massive storage space. That said I should imagine a system whereby you pay to download, get a limited number of watches and/or time expires is more likely to be the business model employed.

    I should imagine such download models would, due to constraints on storage, bandwidth, network speed etc employ similar quality cutting measures as we curently see on television transmission. In which case even though HD DVD/BluRay may be the last physical format we will ever see - they are likely to remain the home cinema fans choice.
     
  25. AidenL

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    This is the most sensible thread on here yet :)

    I don't think HD DVD or Bluray will ever kill each other off, they probably will co-exist in parallel - they both have to worry about the old soldier, SD DVD ;)

    Maybe the war is over before it started, and its ended with a whimper, not a bang :eek:
     
  26. figoagogo

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    Spot on comment!!!

    But you can imagine in a few years, they will be buying a pirated HD disc filmed by someone using a video camera and think it is the best quality there is :rolleyes:
     
  27. dso

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    Very true, not many people realise that the most bought DVDs are p0rn. There was a good article in Home Cinema Choice about this and it seemed that Blu Ray was the prefferred format, primarily for storage. But HD will be supported as well.
     
  28. ollie501

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    Are Bluray or HD-DVD players likely to (or able to at present) capable of scaling from 1080p to 1080i or 720p, for those of us with panels not capable of displaying a 1080p image?
     
  29. Jimwa

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    I would have thought that early on both formats will attract the 'early adopters' such as many of the enthusiasts on this forum, what the manufacturers are probably banking on is that as the prices of the hardware fall (and they will rapidly - just look at what type of DVD player you can buy for peanuts now) they will attract the replacement market, with customers naturally upgrading to a newer, higher quality format knowing that they can play their existing DVD's and not having to start all over again.
     
  30. ykhan16

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    It might be close if someone filmed it on their hi-def video camera! :rotfl:
     

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