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so whos going to win out of HD-DVD and BLUE RAY? According to digiital bits its over!

Discussion in 'Televisions' started by GalacticaActual, May 18, 2005.

  1. GalacticaActual

    GalacticaActual
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    Caught this article over at digital bits. Just one mans opionion but it does seem to make some sense.

    Check it out.

    here
     
  2. GalacticaActual

    GalacticaActual
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    you know, feel free to coment guys :D
     
  3. Rasczak

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    I think anyone who considers himself a "high-end, home theater-phile" and who buys a PS3 as his main High Def player probably needs to re-evaluate his terminlogy. :) Also Samsung and Thompson have both now decided to support HD DVD (in addition to BluRay). And the arrival of the DVD/HD DVD hybrid disc could well mean we see many people buying HD DVD movies...

    All that said personally I don't see how anyone can determine how the 'war' will pan out until the discs and players are available. How will people react to the relative fragility of BluRay for example? What about the cost difference (will PS3 owners pay a premium for BluRay movies?) Everybody has become so obsessed over the 'great' capacity of BluRay that they don't consider these issues - even if capacity is a non-issue for High Def pre-recorded media.
     
  4. tim k

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    I Personally think the release of these systems at an almost subsidised rock bottom price will force hd dvd players to have a low price tag, and therefore making them available for the masses. At the moment looking and loving both the 360 and the ps3 i intend to buy both, seeing as the 360 is about 7/8 months away and the ps3 12 months away. Then i can decide which one i want to keep. I still think that xbox live will be the frontier for online gaming, as it is now, and this really is the future, the whole interactivity thing.

    As far as the ongoing blu ray/hd dvd argument I think microsoft will have to jump ship and co-operate so they are both compatable on each players. I think they'll end up producing the same products, as they are so similiar.
     
  5. fdxd

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    Whats all this about having data 0.1 mm away from the surface? Does that mean its less scratch resistant?
     
  6. Rasczak

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    Yes. BluRay was designed to live in a caddy but, as with DVD-RAM, dropped it due to the 'out-dated look' associated with this type of protection. Accordingly various scratchproof coatings will be employed, e.g. the one found on TDK scratchproof DVD discs. Such treatment has been reasonably successful at making DVD more robust - how it will fair on the more vulnerable BluRay remains to be seen.
     
  7. kenji-san

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    i've said this ages ago: the PS3 factor should not be underestimated.
    most people who's buying PS3 is probably first and foremost because of the games, not because they want a high-tech high-def player. But, like the PS2 and DVD, PS3 will drive the blu-ray sales bigtime.
    Because once HD screens become cheaper, and people want HD movies, all those PS3 owners are not going to buy a hd-dvd player; they allready got blu-ray! why buy another hd player?
    And i'm not talking about the av-specialist people, but the main stream, average joe guy. And sure, PS2 wasn't the best dvd player, but that didn't stop it from being used by most PS2 owners as their dvd player. And it was still leagues ahead of vhs quality,the previous standard for many people.
    Most likely the PS3 will become hugely popluar, and probably sell millions in no time.
    which equals millions of bluray owners in no time.
    I agree with the article, Toshiba should beg Sony to be a part of their Bluray plan.
     
  8. tim k

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    agreed, either microsoft have got something big up there sleeves or theyve made a big c*ckup
     
  9. Rasczak

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    I'm not convinced. All the PS3's in the world won't help if there aren't any movies on BluRay discs - or more specifically the movies people want on BluRay discs. By the time PS3 arrives there will be cheaper, dedicated HD DVD and BluRay players - these will slowly but surely develop a niche market in both formats prior to them becoming 'mainstream' overtime.
     
  10. drskhaled

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    If ps3 sales are in their millions as predicted movie companies will be gagging to release their products on bluray. People who have just forked out several hundred for a ps3 will not fork out more for a hddvd player. Hddvd has two chances either they quickly get a contract going with microsoft to include a hddvd drive on the 360 or they make standard hddvd players cheap (ie under £100). Thats the only way mainstream consumers are gonna buy a hddvd player. Most people were happy with ps2 as their dvd player and so dedicated players had to be ruthlessy cheap to sell. The same thing will happen again.
    Finally remember sega's pathetic attempt at countering ps2 by bundling a dvd player with their dreamcast? Consumers didnt fall for it then and if microsoft try a lame trick like that they will also fail, it has to be an all in one system. I think it is a done deal that bluray will be the winner. :lesson:
     
  11. Nic Rhodes

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    I remain unconvinced about either at the moment.
     
  12. Van300

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    By the time PS3 arrives no matter how many HD DVD films are available only a very few people will be buying. For the average consumer to invest in a new HD DVD player and a HD TV within the space of 12 months is pretty slim considering that the HD war hasn't resolved yet and why should they want one- most do not know what HD is let alone Blu-ray and HD DVD?

    However, once PS3 is available the average consumer WILL want it for the games. Once bought, they will know of Blu-ray and their next purchase will be a HD TV and then Blu-ray movies of course. There will definately be Blu-ray movies as Sony owns Columbia Tristar and has backing from other film studios.

    As the number of PS3 sales increase, the movie studios backing HD DVD will start to wonder whether to jump across onto Blu-ray as the market will be huge.

    Capacity will always become an issue sooner or later! Look at current dvds. This is what technology is all about- increase speed, capacity, efficiency etc.

    I will not be buying the X360 but will be holding out for the PS3.
     
  13. kourosh

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    are we forgetting something most average joe's(in the uk anyway dont have a tv set capable of high def,when ps3 hits our stores next year im sure it will still be the same its you have to remember most average joe's still have crt sets look how long its taken the public to start buying plasmas and lcd sets im sure ps3 will sell by the millions but i bet you most of them will be played on crt ;)
     
  14. kenji-san

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    what van said.
    people want ps3. people read in ps3 manual that it supports something called bluray, which is next generation high def picture. People heard about something called HD picture which supposedly is good. People want HD films.People want bluray films. Demand for BR films arise, movie industry cater to demand, everybody (except toshiba) is happy!
    I'm holding out for the ps3 too, reiterations of sports franchises with more shades doesn't make me want to buy a console.

    edit: @kourosh : Sure, most AJ's don't have a plasma, which in turn could be because of lack of interest/knowledge of HD etc. PS3 may be a catalyst for HD and plasma in general.
    But IF they (ps3 owners) will buy a plasma, it will be to support the HD capabilities of their PS3, both game-wise and movie-wise. And they will surely not buy another different hd player on top of the hd-player in their PS3.
     
  15. kourosh

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    only time will tell :smashin: ;) i still think there's room for both formats why not? we have people buying ps2 , xbox and came cubes :thumbsup: in my case i cant wait for ps3 to come out but im sure if i can get my hands on a high def dvd by december time im not gonna turn that away either why not have the best of both worlds :D
     
  16. kenji-san

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    i cant even wait for december, so i'm playing hd material on the plasma via pc! Well, more or less hd. :D
    Morally, i'm all for letting everybody have a piece of the pie, it breeds competition, which in the end is good for the consumer.
    But when push comes to shovel, and you gotta show your stand, i can't help but sway for the bluray and sony! :clap:
    Of course, my REAL stance is with the gamecube, but that's for an entirely different discussion. :thumbsup:
     
  17. Dutch

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    The only non-Sony owned studio to announce support of Blu-ray (albeit non-exclusively) is Disney. So far, not one single title has been announced by any studio to be available on Blu-ray. Shouldn't they have put a few titles in the frame by now?

    Steve
     
  18. Rasczak

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    Indeed. But hey if BluRay is on the PS3 it's set to become the defacto standard :confused: :rolleyes: :confused: I remain unconvinced. I think movie availability (many of whom have significant investments in 0.6mm technology) and robustness/reliability of media will be the significant factors.
     
  19. Van300

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    Interesting link below

    http://www.dvdreview.com/html/new_format_war.html

    I agree with the author.

    Dutch, thanks for the correction. I am sure that support from other studios will be forth coming as soon as the PS3 arrives.

    I cannot see Blu-ray failing when it's supported by the PS3. The market will be HUGE for the studios. The PS3 will be THE player to introduce the AJ to HD.
     
  20. Rasczak

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    The author has nailed his colours to the BluRay mast - no problem with that - but a few issues in his article are quite wide of the mark:

    His comment "Backwards compatibility. Who cares?" for example - well most people actually. Take a look at the DVD recordable market! Tri-wavelength pickup heads have been developed by Sony, LG, Philips and TSST but none are in mass production at this very moment - so his statement that it is only going to add $0.25 to the cost of BluRay machines is imaginary.

    I was at CES and the footage he was comparing was animation (BluRay) versus live action footage (HD DVD). Ergo his comments re-PQ difference can't really be considered serious. It also overlooks the reality that even if BluRay wins, not every disc will be an eight layer, uncompressed MPEG2 recording. The studios will release single layer, MPEG4 encoded BluRay discs because that is what will be cheapest. By contrast dual layer HD DVD is comparable in cost to DVD9 - and thus we could well end up with higher quality prints on HD DVD.

    The core point I'm making is that nobody knows how the whole situation will pan out yet - articles like the one linked to are two a penny and all are obsessed with the capacity of the new formats without giving any consideration to the reliability/durability issue, the likely cost and the number of movies available on each type of disc.
     
  21. Van300

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    I do not feel that 'backwards compatibility' would be very important because once the AJ has got the PS3 (AJ will most likely have PS3 first before HD TV) they will most likely keep their DVD players to play DVDs and use the PS3 for games and Blu-ray movies.

    Once standalone Blu-ray players/recorders come out, the AJ may wish for backwards compatibility but would they really care when they have just paid £1500+(presuming 2006 price for 1080p HDTV) and already have the PS3 for playback. Admittedly the sales of standalone BR players would be 'stunted' by PS3 initially.

    Depending how good the playback from the PS3 may be, standalone players may sell very poorly until recorders arrive- not sure if PS3 will have recording facility.

    Not sure if the AJ can afford both X360 and PS3 but certainly sales for the PS3 WILL be much bigger.

    In an ideal world we should only compare like for like. However, as the HD DVD technology seems to be short of the mark at CES and BR PQ for live motion is unknown then surely BR's stand is currently better than HD DVD.

    HD DVD supporters initially said that there would be no need for the huge capacity offered by BR, 50GB?, and that HD DVD capacity of 27-30GB(?) would be perfectly adequate for 720p movies. Why then are Toshiba now looking at triple layering to increase the capacity of HD DVD to 50GB? If BR was not a serious opponent the we'd all have poor quality HD DVD movies.

    Now that we know the PS3 will play 1080p movies will HD DVD be able to offer enough capacity to cater for the higher HD resolution along with 7.1 discrete sound etc? Presumably this is why HD DVD may now be triple layered. What would be the cost of this? :suicide:
     
  22. Rasczak

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    It's always been an issue in the past - but I'll guess we'll have to wait and see.

    I should think standalones will sell relatively well. There are a large number of people who have purchased High Def compatible LCDs, Plasmas and Projectors who are waiting for high def releases. They will not want to run their new £2000+ screen from a PS3! They will want better quality - as people do now with DVD. Very few people who use their console as their prime DVD player will be interested in High Def disc releases anyway...

    I don't think that is a certainty at all. Take a look at this news report which predicts "by 2010, Xbox 360 would grab the lead with 38 percent of the market, followed by Sony with 32 percent and Nintendo with 22 percent". Accurate or not? Time will tell.

    TBH I find it quite likely we will see a HD DVD aspect built into the XBox 360 within a few years, i.e. long before high def disc releases have really caught on. The BluRay aspect of the PS3 will not be compatible with all BluRay products - there are a wide variety of incompatible standards at present - and MS may well be very wise to wait for HD DVD to be firmly established first to avoid the re-run of DVDR incompatibility that we have witnessed recently. Whatever I can't see a HD DVD XBox 360 or a BluRay PS3 affecting the market significantly either way to be honest. What will matter is availability of movies.
     
  23. Van300

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    Rasczak

    'backwards compatibility'- DVD when it came out was not and is still NOT compatible with VHS. Has this been a real problem for dvd movie sales or vhs? Had affordable DVD recorders been available sooner, vhs would have died off earlier.

    I do not think that there is actually a 'large' number of people who have bought HDTVs. I would consider this to be true once more than half the TV owners have HDTV. Curretnly, this is not the case so the number of HDTV owners are still very small. Bear in mind that a huge amount of LCDs and plasma TVs bought till recently have not been true HDTV. Further more, I think production of HD movies will now be further delayed as 1080p is achievable via PS3. This, I hope, will be THE HD format for movies.

    I do not see a problem with running BR movies my HDTV via the PS3 as I have seen the spec for the PS3. If it can carry out 1080p for games with the Nvidia graphics chip then playback 1080p BR movies will be too easy as it will have HDMIs.

    By the way, the AJ will eventually have HDTVs for games and BR movies but they will not likely buy a BR standalone player for HD movies unless it gives then significantly more than what the PS3 will, ie recording facility.

    The Xbox using DVD standard will be absolutely slaughtered once the PS3 hits the market. I take the article re 2010 percentage market share with a barrel of salt. How can they predict to the nearest single percent without any of the consoles in question in production let alone market supply and demand! Lets not bother troubling ourselves by voting anymore. We'll just let the staticians do their magic ang provide us with figures to the nearest percent for each of the parties :suicide: .
     
  24. Sarah Nya

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    I'll be buying all 3 new consoles as soon as they are released but I don't give a damn what they play I'll be buying myself a dedicated player, be it BR or HDDVD, I'd never use their inbuilt drives :D
     
  25. kenji-san

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    content will always drive hardware, be it games or films, and preferably exclusives.
    As luscious as the ps3 hardware and bluray specs sound, that's not necessarily what's gonna make AJ buy it(well, not all of them).
    So it's up to Sony to create an appropriate quantity of quality content if they want the PS3 and BR to win. Which they'll more than likely do.
     
  26. Evil Engineer

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    A sound sentiment. But how many people will take a wait and see approach if a format war developes ? It will mean slow sales for both camps and all the while people will still be buying PS3's as a games console.

    I wouldn't dream of using a games console as my main hi-def disc spinner but I would be happy to use a PS3 to "try out" Blu-Ray and wait for the dust to settle before investing in a "real" player.

    If we have a format war the best thing to happen would be for one or more manufacturers to break ranks and produce universal decks.

    Also, I would suggest that the winning format (in Europe at least) will be the one with the regional coding system that's the easiest to get round!
     
  27. Rasczak

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    Some of the most commercially successful units have been VHS/DVD combi units! Recordable DVD has been here since 2001 - it just has not been widely adopted due to compatibility issues - which rather reinforces my point.

    Realtively the numbers are quite small - certainly nowhere near half the population - but then the people who have got high def screens are those with the disposable income to buy high def releases. Thus they will drive high def sales.

    None of which means it's going to be any good as a BluRay player. Especially if there are a whole host of compatibility problems with future BluRay discs.

    Unlikely. BluRay is not going to drive sales of the PS3 - people will buy it for the gaming. Indeed BluRay may even put people off due to the issues that will surround copying games. And if there is a lack of movies and titles why would anyone want BluRay compatibility? Nobody except High Def users - who will probably shell out for a decent High Def player. Frankly XBox 360 using DVD is probably more marketable to the average joe.
     
  28. Dutch

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    Van,

    HD DVD is quite capable of carrying a 2.5 hour film in 1080p24 with lossless audio using AVC HP/VC-1 codecs on a dual layer disc. The new proposed 3 layer HD DVD will be produced in exactly the same way as a current DVD14 and so should only be a few pence more to make.

    Steve
     
  29. Rasczak

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    A point missed on many people. And you still then have the potential benefits of retaining a 0.6mm structure, e.g. durability.
     
  30. kenji-san

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    i think there's some interesting arguments going on, but the following i have to comment on:

    "Because PS3 has BR,and copying games is hard, people don't buy it" (if that's what you meant).
    I think very few people consider wether its easy to copy games when they want to buy a games system. And those who do, and then choose not to buy ps3 bevause of this, is a market Sony will likely want to be without. In the long run it's the fee they take for each game sold that's gonna make them money.

    also, sony will surely fix any compatibility issue surrounding BR, and not release something that won't play all versions of BR discs. Anything less would be a big mistake. Sony aren't stupid.

    And xbox360 will sell because it contains a dvd player ? dvd player today = £25. That's not gonna draw anybody.

    At the time of the ps3, there will ofcourse be BR films. Sony pictures etc will spew out their back catalogue on PS3 launch day as fast as you can say.. sony back catalogue.

    And what's with the durability issue?? That's not some 'big thing' everybody's talking about. So what if it was an issue during early phases. They got the TDK coating or what it was called. It's fine now. I've read that it's even more durable than a DVD!

    And hd-dvd will be able to play 2.5 H worth of great hd film using triple layer.
    Doesn't that argument kinda stink? 3 layers, before it's released, maxed out disc.
    As the article mentioned before says, BR is future proof. HD-DVD is allready struggling.

    ok, end of my biased arguments. :)
     

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