Scottish Parliament Election 2021

spacelab

Well-known Member
Very curious choice of colours for a Tory leaflet. I wonder why they made it so orange?

MOD COMMENT: image removed due to personal details on show.


Edited to remove address of person who posted the image on twitter (not me)


EzuM-UHWUAMxQe1.jpg
 
Last edited:

El Barto

Active Member
Looks like they are back to the forget we are Tories and 'lend us' your vote strategy
Whilst stating that a vote for the SNP (or other pro-indy parties) isn't a vote for Indy
Cracking wheeze this democracy when you can make it up as you go along

I await tomorrow's next exciting installment from the "do as we say not as we do" party
 

RobGlasgow

Active Member
So it's official, Thursday election is about wether there's another referendum, thanks Dougie :rotfl:

It's all they have. They have nothing else to offer, nothing positive to take to the electorate. Just the usual mantra about Indy Ref 2 being bad, about how divisive the SNP are in pushing for another vote. And ignoring the fact that they re being equally divisive in opposing it. Or do they not realise that the polls are running at about 50/50?
 

francobegbie

Active Member
So it's official, Thursday election is about wether there's another referendum, thanks Dougie :rotfl:

I can see why people are enjoying this, but you do realise its the Tories, right? Just because they have clearly said something doesn't mean they are beholden to it (see also Ross' comments on Johnson resigning if its found he lied).

I wonder if this tweet indicates they think that a) an SNP majority is likely, so they are desperately looking for votes or b) an SNP majority is unlikely so they can say this without worrying. I hope it's a, but am worried its b.
 

El Barto

Active Member
If only we had a media who held comments from politicians to account (tbf they hold OIAG in high regard, threats to resign if Scotland gets a worse Brexit deal than NI, not so much)
 

Eliminator

Active Member
I can see why people are enjoying this, but you do realise its the Tories, right? Just because they have clearly said something doesn't mean they are beholden to it (see also Ross' comments on Johnson resigning if its found he lied).

I wonder if this tweet indicates they think that a) an SNP majority is likely, so they are desperately looking for votes or b) an SNP majority is unlikely so they can say this without worrying. I hope it's a, but am worried its b.
I also get the sense the Tories are now fairly relaxed about Thursday. They seem to be confident over 50% of the electorate will vote for Unionism and SNP will fall short of a majority thanks to divisions in Nationalist ranks. Hopefully I am wrong but the portents look grim IMHO. Apparently the Tories will win Hartlepool as well so Boris will get a real fillip from Thursday.
 

Reese Withouterspoon

Well-known Member
I also get the sense the Tories are now fairly relaxed about Thursday. They seem to be confident over 50% of the electorate will vote for Unionism and SNP will fall short of a majority thanks to divisions in Nationalist ranks. Hopefully I am wrong but the portents look grim IMHO. Apparently the Tories will win Hartlepool as well so Boris will get a real fillip from Thursday.
Has Hartlepool undergone a collective lobotomy?
 

Eliminator

Active Member
Has Hartlepool undergone a collective lobotomy?
Its insane isn't it? For me this is why Scotland MUST have independence. Boris and the Tories are perceived as the perfect form of Government in England. It will be decades before it swings to a Government that represents Scotland and that will only be when Labour ape the Tories (think Blair). Fingers crossed for Thurs, so much depends on it.
 

brunation

Well-known Member
TL;DR: Every votes matters.

@Eliminator is going 'Both Votes SNP' and is concerned about the Greens impact on an SNP maj.
@thmsy raised the issue of the Greens standing in more constituencies and that might cost seats.
@Smudges Dad notes that Green voters split several ways.

This just deals with the simplest transfer that concerns @thmsy that Green (Indy) voters could cost SNP seats, as happened in Edinburgh Central.

Greens are standing in 12 seats and this analysis deals with the ones the SNP won.
Move enough votes (majority+1) from SNP to Green.

Table: Vote Transfers that would cost SNP seat

RegionConstituencyLabourSNPLDToryGreen
Glasgow​
Glasgow Kelvin​
5968​
6915 (-4049)​
1050​
3346​
10965 (+4049)​
Glasgow​
Glasgow Pollok​
8834​
8833 (-6483)​
585​
2653​
6483 (+6483)​
Glasgow​
Glasgow Provan​
8357​
8356 (-4784)​
518​
2062​
4784 (+4784)​
Highlands and Islands​
Inverness and Nairn​
6719​
7647 (-10858)​
5445​
7648​
10858 (+10858)​
Lothian​
Edinburgh Northern and Leith​
10576​
10575 (-6747)​
1779​
6081​
6747 (+6747)​
Mid Scotland and Fife​
Cowdenbeath​
10674​
10673 (-3042)​
1094​
4251​
3042 (+3042)​
North East Scotland​
Aberdeen Central​
7299​
7298 (-4350)​
1735​
6022​
4350 (+4350)​
South Scotland​
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale​
5701​
10162 (-5869)​
3686​
10163​
5869 (+5869)​
West Scotland​
Paisley​
9483​
9482 (-5200)​
1766​
3533​
5200 (+5200)​

Region/Consituency summary after the vote change:

RegionLabourSNPLDToryGreen
Central Scotland​
0​
9​
0​
0​
0​
Glasgow​
2 (+2)​
6 (-3)​
0​
0​
1 (+1)​
Highlands and Islands​
0​
5 (-1)​
2​
0​
1 (+1)​
Lothian​
2 (+1)​
5 (-1)​
1​
1​
0​
Mid Scotland and Fife​
1 (+1)​
7 (-1)​
1​
0​
0​
North East Scotland​
1 (+1)​
8 (-1)​
0​
1​
0​
South Scotland​
1​
3 (-1)​
0​
5 (+1)​
0​
West Scotland​
2 (+1)​
7 (-1)​
0​
1​
0​
Total​
9 (+6)​
50 (-9)​
4​
8 (+1)​
2 (+2)​

So Labour is the party that benefits. Now assume those Green voters stick with the party on the List vote:

RegionLabourSNPLDToryGreen
Central Scotland​
67103​
129082​
5015​
43602​
12722​
Glasgow​
59151​
95785 (-15316)​
5850​
29533​
38714 (+15316)​
Highlands and Islands​
22894​
70742 (-10858)​
27223​
44693​
25639 (+10858)​
Lothian​
67991​
111799 (-6747)​
18479​
74972​
41298 (+6747)​
Mid Scotland and Fife​
51373​
117086 (-3042)​
20401​
73293​
20902 (+3042)​
North East Scotland​
38791​
132736 (-4350)​
18444​
85848​
19473 (+4350)​
South Scotland​
56072​
114348 (-5869)​
11775​
100753​
20642 (+5869)​
West Scotland​
72544​
130627 (-5200)​
12097​
71528​
22418 (+5200)​
Total​
435919​
902205 (-51382)​
119284​
524222​
201808 (+51382)​

which gives the following seats:

RegionLabourSNPLDToryGreen
Central Scotland​
4​
0​
0​
3​
0​
Glasgow​
2 (-2)​
1 (+1)​
0​
2​
2 (+1)​
Highlands and Islands​
2​
1​
0​
3​
1​
Lothian​
1 (-1)​
1 (+1)​
0​
3​
2​
Mid Scotland and Fife​
2​
0​
0​
4​
1​
North East Scotland​
1 (-1)​
0​
1​
4​
1 (+1)​
South Scotland​
2​
3​
0​
1 (-1)​
1 (+1)​
West Scotland​
2 (-1)​
1 (+1)​
0​
3​
1​
Total​
16 (-5)​
7 (+3)​
1​
23 (-1)​
9 (+3)​

Labour lose seats because of their performance in the Constituency vote. SNP and Greens benefit from Labour's loss.

This gives the final tally:

ElectionLabourSNPLDToryGreenTotal
Constituency​
9 (+6)​
50 (-9)​
4​
8 (+1)​
2 (+2)​
73​
List​
16 (-5)​
7 (+3)​
1​
23 (-1)​
9 (+3)​
56​
Total​
25 (+1)​
57 (-6)​
5​
31​
11 (+5)​
129​

The net result is the Greens do better at the expense of the SNP.
 

Smudges Dad

Active Member
Galloway on BBC tonight was hilarious, now being followed by the Scottish UKIP leader. Salmond on due soon.
Swear box filling up nicely.
 

Eliminator

Active Member
The Greens could be a real problem. My view is that an SNP majority even if just one seat is better than a nat super-majority with with all as minorities. The former gives us a legal route to force another referendum, the latter leaves us at the mercy of Boris J. As he will be emboldened by his Hartlepool victory we will get nothing from him but mockery.

As it is an IndyRef2 will be a real challenge for the nats. The English Government will throw everything at us and more and will conspire with foreign powers to undermine us. But at least it gives us a chance.
 

francobegbie

Active Member
The Greens could be a real problem. My view is that an SNP majority even if just one seat is better than a nat super-majority with with all as minorities. The former gives us a legal route to force another referendum, the latter leaves us at the mercy of Boris J. As he will be emboldened by his Hartlepool victory we will get nothing from him but mockery.

As it is an IndyRef2 will be a real challenge for the nats. The English Government will throw everything at us and more and will conspire with foreign powers to undermine us. But at least it gives us a chance.
Not saying you are wrong - I am sure you are more clued up than I am - but why would a Indy-party majority not have the same legal might as a simple SNP majority?
 

Eliminator

Active Member
Not saying you are wrong - I am sure you are more clued up than I am - but why would a Indy-party majority not have the same legal might as a simple SNP majority?
It is the legal precedents caused by Cameron, May and Boris. There is now an established chain that Scottish Government single party majority means a negotiated Section 30 referendum. Minority Scottish Government means rejection. Remember, Section 30 has been refused twice this Parliamentary term by Boris and May despite a SNP/SGreen majority. Doing the same again this term is continuity and inline with legal precedent. Think back to the wording of the Court of Session on the Section 30 enquiry challenge - paraphrasing "it is premature, a matter of politics and may never come to pass".

The Greenies could be troublesome in other ways too. They are talking about altering the Marine Act to ban Trident from Scotland. If they do that it is the excuse Boris needs to strip away powers from Holyrood. Who could stop him with a rock-solid English majority behind him?
 

Dr Lucien Sanchez

Active Member
It is the legal precedents caused by Cameron, May and Boris. There is now an established chain that Scottish Government single party majority means a negotiated Section 30 referendum. Minority Scottish Government means rejection. Remember, Section 30 has been refused twice this Parliamentary term by Boris and May despite a SNP/SGreen majority. Doing the same again this term is continuity and inline with legal precedent. Think back to the wording of the Court of Session on the Section 30 enquiry challenge - paraphrasing "it is premature, a matter of politics and may never come to pass".

The Greenies could be troublesome in other ways too. They are talking about altering the Marine Act to ban Trident from Scotland. If they do that it is the excuse Boris needs to strip away powers from Holyrood. Who could stop him with a rock-solid English majority behind him?
Its people like you who would actually dissuade me from voting SNP. Greenies? Being troublesome? How condescending can you get? And you talk about removing Trident as it its a bad thing.

You've said on here in the past that you are maybe a bit too forward in the two votes SNP thing, maybe you should think on your logic and wording. I've answered your points here before, you still repeat them ad nauseum. An independence favouring majority in the next Parliament will result in a referendum down the line, that will happen. The stuff you repeat here is just fluff and an attempt to get people to go with the two votes. Conservatives have admitted that an independence favourable Parliament would be impossible to keep saying no to.

The SNP are not entitled to votes from all independence supporting voters. I am one, a strong independence supporter, though I am more Green at heart. Your views put me off actually putting a cross against the SNP name.
 

Eliminator

Active Member
Hmmm. You say its fluff but you have not countered it all. Yes you can give sound bites, "unsustainable", "will of the people" etc etc etc but that is just hot air. Empty rhetoric. I put it to you to explain in precise detail how you will get a referendum without an SNP majority.

Let's game the scenario,

SNP MINORITY PLAY
  • SNP minority and forms coalition with SGreens
  • Coalition asks for Section 30
  • Boris J says no
  • SNP appeal to Court of Session to have Section 30 approved
  • Judges refer to precedent and say no precedent for minority referendum
  • Boris J spends next 5 years ripping the powers from Holyrood including undermining Judicial Review so that in 2026 the Section 30 decision can't even be challenged in court!
then

SNP UNOFFICIAL MINORITY PLAY

  • SNP calls unofficial referendum
  • Boris J challenges it in court and wins due to precedent that minority parties don't get referendums!
  • Scot Government can't use Civil Service, instruments of Government, electoral commission etc for unofficial ballot giving it about the same status as a YouGov poll.
  • End game for Indy in the short-medium-long term
or

SNP MAJORITY PLAY

  • SNP majority asks for Section 30
  • Then either
  • a. Boris J knows he will lose in court so negotiates a referendum OR
  • b. Boris J rejects Section 30, SNP refer to Court of Session and Section 30 approved
  • IndyRef2 held!

As for Trident and its removal. It is would be a good thing but what you fail to see is it will be used as a mechanism to rip powers for Holyrood. Things have changed. Fisheries and the Internal Market Act shows powers devolved to Holyrood can be recovered. Both May and Johnson's Governments see Scotland as a territory not polity and that will be amplified after this election. The English are spending £50 odd billion on Trident and are not going to let a little institution like Holyrood block it when they can just tear powers away.

To me your post just tells me everything - Independence will be lost by nats undermining nats. Every vote for the SGreens is a vote against an IndyRef, to shift powers from Holyrood to Westminster and twenty more years of English Tory rule. That is what you are voting for even if you don't see it.
 
Last edited:

Dr Lucien Sanchez

Active Member
Hmmm. You say its fluff but you have not countered it all. Yes you can give sound bites, "unsustainable", "will of the people" etc etc etc but that is just hot air. Empty rhetoric. I put it to you to explain in precise detail how you will get a referendum without an SNP majority.

Let's game the scenario,

SNP MINORITY PLAY
  • SNP minority and forms coalition with SGreens
  • Coalition asks for Section 30
  • Boris J says no
  • SNP appeal to Court of Session to have Section 30 approved
  • Judges refer to precedent and say no precedent for minority referendum
  • Boris J spends next 5 years ripping the powers from Holyrood including undermining Judicial Review so that in 2026 the Section 30 decision can't even be challenged in court!
then

SNP UNOFFICIAL MINORITY PLAY

  • SNP calls unofficial referendum
  • Boris J challenges it in court and wins due to precedent that minority parties don't get referendums!
  • Scot Government can't use Civil Service, instruments of Government, electoral commission etc for unofficial ballot giving it about the same status as a YouGov poll.
  • End game for Indy in the short-medium-long term
or

SNP MAJORITY PLAY

  • SNP majority asks for Section 30
  • Then either
  • a. Boris J knows he will lose in court so negotiates a referendum OR
  • b. Boris J rejects Section 30, SNP refer to Court of Session and Section 30 approved
  • IndyRef2 held!

As for Trident and its removal. It is would be a good thing but what you fail to see is it will be used as a mechanism to rip powers for Holyrood. Things have changed. Fisheries and the Internal Market Act shows powers devolved to Holyrood can be recovered. Both May and Johnson's Governments see Scotland as a territory not polity and that will be amplified after this election. The English are spending £50 odd billion on Trident and are not going to let a little institution like Holyrood block it when they can just tear powers away.

To me your post just tells me everything - Independence will be lost by nats undermining nats. Every vote for the SGreens is a vote against an IndyRef, to shift powers from Holyrood to Westminster and twenty more years of English Tory rule. That is what you are voting for even if you don't see it.
Hang on, you go on about Nats undermining Nats. Go through your posts, especially the last two, and think on your words there. You are the one going on about other parties being troublesome, saying people can't see the truth etc, just because they might have the audacity to actually have a different view to you. The words arrogant and entitlement come to my mind. I've been round the block a fair bit, don't treat me as an idiot.

And I have countered your posts before, so I am not going through the same argument again. There's really no more to be said than, as I have said, that a vote will not be refused if there is a minority SNP Government with the Greens. Even Conservatives are admitting that.

Now, this will be my last response to you, in fact you're going on ignore, as you just repeat the same stuff ad nauseum. Frankly, as I say, fanatical views like yours, and your condescension as regards alternative views, just put me off voting SNP in any shape or form.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
Hmmm. You say its fluff but you have not countered it all. Yes you can give sound bites, "unsustainable", "will of the people" etc etc etc but that is just hot air. Empty rhetoric. I put it to you to explain in precise detail how you will get a referendum without an SNP majority.

Let's game the scenario,

SNP MINORITY PLAY
  • SNP minority and forms coalition with SGreens
  • Coalition asks for Section 30
  • Boris J says no
  • SNP appeal to Court of Session to have Section 30 approved
  • Judges refer to precedent and say no precedent for minority referendum
  • Boris J spends next 5 years ripping the powers from Holyrood including undermining Judicial Review so that in 2026 the Section 30 decision can't even be challenged in court!
  • End game for Indy in the short-medium-long term

or

SNP MAJORITY PLAY

  • SNP majority asks for Section 30
  • Then either
  • a. Boris J knows he will lose in court so negotiates a referendum OR
  • b. Boris J rejects Section 30, SNP refer to Court of Session and Section 30 approved
  • IndyRef2 held!

As for Trident and its removal. It is would be a good thing but what you fail to see is it will be used as a mechanism to rip powers for Holyrood. Things have changed. Fisheries and the Internal Market Act shows powers devolved to Holyrood can be recovered. Both May and Johnson's Governments see Scotland as a territory not polity and that will be amplified after this election. The English are spending £50 odd billion on Trident and are not going to let a little institution like Holyrood block it when they can just tear powers away.

To me your post just tells me everything - Independence will be lost by nats undermining nats. Every vote for the SGreens is a vote against an IndyRef, to shift powers from Holyrood to Westminster and twenty more years of English Tory rule. That is what you are voting for even if you don't see it.
I'm not sure you understand how this works.

The UK parliament is supreme. It creates these things called laws, it can also amend them as required.

The SNP could have a referendum when they want, they just need to get the majority of seats in the UK Parliament to vote for it.

There is no legal route for a referendum without the consent of the UK parliament.

That's not saying that all this legal stuff would possibly not play well and make independence more popular, but as it seems 50/50 I think if UK just says no then nothing will be happening anytime soon

I think I saw a recent poll showing while over half of Scotland think there should be a referendum at some point, over half think it shouldn't be in the next 5 years. By 2034 it would be 20 years and the once in a generation promise would have been fufiled etc depending on what u call a generation.

So until the next general election I can't see anything happening, Boris can say no and has the parliamentary majority to back that up by any means necessary.

That does leave a circa 18 month window however for the about to be elected scot gov from late 2024 to 2026, i.e. hung parliament, SNP king maker, price is indy2 and so on. But indy 2 with a labour PM might be tougher to win.

Would also allow the results of brexit to be seen by all, predictions are one thing but in 3-4 years if Brexit is really as bad as the nats would have us believe then most of Scotland will be voting for the exit...
 

The latest video from AVForums

Sony A90J & A80J OLED and X90J & X95J BRAVIA XR TV Line-up & Features: Sony Interview
Subscribe to our YouTube channel

Latest News

Sony launches larger screen sizes for latest Bravia XR TVs
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Sennheiser Consumer Electronics acquired by Sonova
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Freeview Play viewers get Android TV homescreen update
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Hisense announces US TV and soundbar ranges for 2021
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
AVForums Podcast: 5th May 2021
  • By Phil Hinton
  • Published

Full fat HDMI teeshirts

Support AVForums with Patreon

Top Bottom