Scottish Parliament Election 2021

GarryF

Well-known Member
Nope it's banal and childish when people on both sides discount the polls that don't suit their narrative and push the polls that do.

Your example is purely twitter patter that both sides use (as recently as today by Murdo Fraser) when it suits

It only offers a suggestion that there should be a referendum (not actual independence) and it doesn't argue to change the rules of every major referendum ran in the modern era

I voted YES in 2014
the thing I struggle to understand is those who voted Yes in 2014 were voting almost certainly to leave the EU.

So why is the EU such a big deal to you? I understand the upset to those NO voters from 2014 but you'd have happily dragged us out of the EU anyways
 

CoolSharpHarp

Active Member
Likewise I've friends and family who voted NO in 2014 who will vote YES in a future referendum purely on the basis of EU membership (anecdotally over the years EU membership was mentioned more than currency, defence or pensions for the reason why people voted NO in 2014) That's now pivoted
Potentially I think that's the weakness in the YES vote. As time passes and Brexit becomes normal, these people might drift back to NO.
 

Smudges Dad

Active Member
the thing I struggle to understand is those who voted Yes in 2014 were voting almost certainly to leave the EU.

So why is the EU such a big deal to you? I understand the upset to those NO voters from 2014 but you'd have happily dragged us out of the EU anyways
Leaving the EU was expected to be temporary as Scotland already fulfilled all the requirements for membership as part of the UK.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
Leaving the EU was expected to be temporary as Scotland already fulfilled all the requirements for membership as part of the UK.
apart from the fiscal challenge which is expected to take 10-15 years of heavy austerity?

What currency would we have in those 10-15 years? GBP isn't an answer for joining the EU.

Would we eventually end up with the Euro?

Surely if the justification for second vote is to rejoin the EU, then that should be on the ballot paper

"Should Scotland leave the UK to rejoin the EU"
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
I have loads of Scottish friends who voted YES in 2014 and several of them are voting Tory next week. They don't want another referendum and fear a YES win. I think the realisation there is going to be an actual real hard border with England should Scotland go back into the EU is the game changer and the elephant in the room many in the SNP are trying to ignore.

I touted a long while back in the other IndyRef thread about this. An absolute coup for the EU seeing Scotland split from the UK and then have it join the EU. So soon after the UK stuck two fingers up to it.

I still think EU membership should be the subject of another referendum if Scotland does vote for independence. It would be an incredibly significant decision, one that shouldn't automatically be a given.

It only highlights the further irresponsibility of this Tory government if they're not taking independence seriously.
 

annemarie1066

Well-known Member
Yes unlike all of the examples of small, indepent counties that, incidentely, regularly rank as some of the best places in the world to live, Scotland uniquely is too small, too poor, too stupid.
Ireland is a great example of how countries can thrive after independence, Botswana progressed even quicker, 3rd poorest country in Africa as a British Protectorate to one of the wealthiest
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
I touted a long while back in the other IndyRef thread about this. An absolute coup for the EU seeing Scotland split from the UK and then have it join the EU. So soon after the UK stuck two fingers up to it.

I still think EU membership should be the subject of another referendum if Scotland does vote for independence. It would be an incredibly significant decision, one that shouldn't automatically be a given.
Do you not think the EU would be split on this?

For the nations with nationalist movements, (Spain being the highest profile but plenty of others in France and so on) would they want to see Scotland get an easy rid back in? I highly doubt it, they'd want Scotland on it's knees first as a strong demonstration of how much it's going to hurt if you try follow that road.

Also the EU already have 27 members, if internal states start going the way of Yugoslavia do you really think they want 50 or 100 members? The very purpose of the EU is the opposite of Nationalism.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Do you not think the EU would be split on this?

For the nations with nationalist movements, (Spain being the highest profile but plenty of others in France and so on) would they want to see Scotland get an easy rid back in? I highly doubt it, they'd want Scotland on it's knees first as a strong demonstration of how much it's going to hurt if you try follow that road.

Also the EU already have 27 members, if internal states start going the way of Yugoslavia do you really think they want 50 or 100 members? The very purpose of the EU is the opposite of Nationalism.

I believe what you say there is pertinent except in the case of Scotland. Politics is dirty, proven none more so than with Brexit. The UK dares leave the EU, but then suddenly a part of it breaks away providing another land border opportunity for the EU with those scoundrels who dared shun us. The EU is also bigger than those nationalist movements, and I dare say a certain level of vengeance against the UK might weigh heavier than any example making of Scotland (who also voted to Remain remember).

I'm of course not saying Scotland wouldn't be subject to conditions of EU entry, but I've posted before I think they'd get some favourable terms based on their strategic location.

And of course remember the fish! :)
 

brunation

Well-known Member
I have loads of Scottish friends who voted YES in 2014 and several of them are voting Tory next week. They don't want another referendum and fear a YES win.
They're voting on a single issue. There's a name for that ..... no hold on .... it'll come to me 🤔
 
Last edited:

brunation

Well-known Member
apart from the fiscal challenge which is expected to take 10-15 years of heavy austerity?
In your world is that less than the 50 years it takes to see if Brexit is a success?

This thread is drifting once again ......
 

brunation

Well-known Member
@francobegbie

Column spanning (cell-merge) isn't working with these pasted tables:

These are the votes for SNP -> Green transfers which use only the spare votes in the region and do not cause the SNP to lose a seat.

REGIONVOTESEATS
SNP​
Green​
Labour​
SNP​
Liberal Democrat​
Conservative​
Green​
Central Scotland​
129082​
12722​
4​
0​
0​
3​
0​
Round 1​
127269 (-1813)​
14535 (+1813)​
4​
0​
0​
2 (-1)​
1 (+1)​
Round 2​
108251 (-20831)​
33553 (+20831)​
3 (-1)​
0​
0​
2 (-1)​
2 (+2)​
Round 3​
76399 (-52683)​
65405 (+52683)​
3 (-1)​
0​
0​
1 (-2)​
3 (+3)​
Round 4​
52330 (-76752)​
89474 (+76752)​
2 (-2)​
0​
0​
1 (-2)​
4 (+4)​
Glasgow​
111101​
23398​
4​
0​
0​
2​
1​
Round 1​
104964 (-6137)​
29535 (+6137)​
4​
0​
0​
1 (-1)​
2 (+1)​
Round 2​
90133 (-20968)​
44366 (+20968)​
3 (-1)​
0​
0​
1 (-1)​
3 (+2)​
Round 3​
55629 (-55472)​
78870 (+55472)​
2 (-2)​
0​
0​
1 (-1)​
4 (+3)​
Highlands and Islands​
81600​
14781​
2​
1​
0​
3​
1​
Lothian​
118546​
34551​
2​
0​
0​
3​
2​
Round 1​
96866 (-21680)​
56231 (+21680)​
2​
0​
0​
2 (-1)​
3 (+1)​
Round 2​
62439 (-56107)​
90658 (+56107)​
1 (-1)​
0​
0​
2 (-1)​
4 (+2)​
Round 3​
28139 (-90407)​
124958 (+90407)​
1 (-1)​
0​
0​
1 (-2)​
5 (+3)​
Mid Scotland and Fife​
120128​
17860​
2​
0​
0​
4​
1​
Round 1​
101341 (-18787)​
36647 (+18787)​
2​
0​
0​
3 (-1)​
2 (+1)​
Round 2​
64693 (-55435)​
73295 (+55435)​
2​
0​
0​
2 (-2)​
3 (+2)​
Round 3​
35238 (-84890)​
102750 (+84890)​
1 (-1)​
0​
0​
2 (-2)​
4 (+3)​
North East Scotland​
137086​
15123​
2​
0​
1​
4​
0​
Round 1​
135038 (-2048)​
17171 (+2048)​
2​
0​
1​
3 (-1)​
1 (+1)​
Round 2​
115320 (-21766)​
36889 (+21766)​
2​
0​
0 (-1)​
3 (-1)​
2 (+2)​
Round 3​
94019 (-43067)​
58190 (+43067)​
1 (-1)​
0​
0 (-1)​
3 (-1)​
3 (+3)​
Round 4​
66359 (-70727)​
85850 (+70727)​
1 (-1)​
0​
0 (-1)​
2 (-2)​
4 (+4)​
Round 5​
9126 (-127960)​
143083 (+127960)​
1 (-1)​
0​
0 (-1)​
1 (-3)​
5 (+5)​
South Scotland​
120217​
14773​
2​
3​
0​
2​
0​
Round 1​
118197 (-2020)​
16793 (+2020)​
2​
3​
0​
1 (-1)​
1 (+1)​
West Scotland​
135827​
17218​
3​
0​
0​
3​
1​
Round 1​
117280 (-18547)​
35765 (+18547)​
3​
0​
0​
2 (-1)​
2 (+1)​
Round 2​
98635 (-37192)​
54410 (+37192)​
2 (-1)​
0​
0​
2 (-1)​
3 (+2)​
Round 3​
57671 (-78156)​
95374 (+78156)​
2 (-1)​
0​
0​
1 (-2)​
4 (+3)​
Round 4​
32137 (-103690)​
120908 (+103690)​
1 (-2)​
0​
0​
1 (-2)​
5 (+4)​

Highlands and Islands is the only region where this tactical vote is moot.

The Green -> SNP transfers without costing the Greens a seat in the region.

REGIONVOTESEATS
SNP​
Green​
Labour​
SNP​
Liberal Democrat​
Conservative​
Green​
Central Scotland​
129082​
12722​
4​
0​
0​
3​
0​
Glasgow​
111101​
23398​
4​
0​
0​
2​
1​
Highlands and Islands​
81600​
14781​
2​
1​
0​
3​
1​
Lothian​
118546​
34551​
2​
0​
0​
3​
2​
Mid Scotland and Fife​
120128​
17860​
2​
0​
0​
4​
1​
North East Scotland​
137086​
15123​
2​
0​
1​
4​
0​
South Scotland​
120217​
14773​
2​
3​
0​
2​
0​
South Scotland​
134340 (+14123)​
650 (-14123)​
2​
4 (+1)​
0​
1 (-1)​
0​
West Scotland​
135827​
17218​
3​
0​
0​
3​
1​

South of Scotland is the only the region that offers a tactical option.

All transfers are cumulative i.e. Round 2 includes the transfers from Round 1 etc.
 

Eliminator

Active Member
John Curtice on Radio 4 this lunchtime now believes less than 25% chance SNP will get a majority and the main aim for the Tories is defeating that majority and IndyRef2 with it. Looks like the Tories will be victors next week..
 

Smudges Dad

Active Member
John Curtice on Radio 4 this lunchtime now believes less than 25% chance SNP will get a majority and the main aim for the Tories is defeating that majority and IndyRef2 with it. Looks like the Tories will be victors next week..
Is that like Corbyn’s victory in 2017?
 

Eliminator

Active Member
I hope the Tories come third next week just as much as the next man but it really doesn't matter. Everything hinges upon an SNP majority. If we get it there will be IndyRef2. If we don't there won't. A SNP-SGreen-Alba nationalist majority or super-majority will count for absolutely nothing. There won't be a referendum and it will be curtains for the indy movement. Of course we will remain passionate about it but the Tories will rip the powers out of Holyrood and gut the institution. The nationalist boast from Covid and divisions caused by Alba will hamper SNP success.

Next Thursday has generational significance.
 

El Barto

Active Member
the thing I struggle to understand is those who voted Yes in 2014 were voting almost certainly to leave the EU.

So why is the EU such a big deal to you? I understand the upset to those NO voters from 2014 but you'd have happily dragged us out of the EU anyways
It's not a big deal for me (however I've no time for
the thing I struggle to understand is those who voted Yes in 2014 were voting almost certainly to leave the EU.

So why is the EU such a big deal to you? I understand the upset to those NO voters from 2014 but you'd have happily dragged us out of the EU anyways
Apologies for the late reply, maybe some saw the writing on the wall? i.e. a right wing English bloc tipping the balance in 2016?

Was the stat not that 30% of SNP voters are leavers anyway?

For me it wasn't a deal breaker, my current personal preference is an EFTA deal (mainly due to the shoddy way the EU treated Catalonia and that it would help mitigate a Hard Border which would soothe soft yessers) rather than full EU membership
 

El Barto

Active Member
I hope the Tories come third next week just as much as the next man but it really doesn't matter. Everything hinges upon an SNP majority. If we get it there will be IndyRef2. If we don't there won't. A SNP-SGreen-Alba nationalist majority or super-majority will count for absolutely nothing. There won't be a referendum and it will be curtains for the indy movement. Of course we will remain passionate about it but the Tories will rip the powers out of Holyrood and gut the institution. The nationalist boast from Covid and divisions caused by Alba will hamper SNP success.

Next Thursday has generational significance.
It only has that significance if you play their game (and Nicola Sturgeon goes along with it)
 

Sid Law

Standard Member
Looks like the Tories will be victors next week..
What, like when the London based media went ga-ga when Ruth Davidson’s “Scottish“ Conservatives came a very distant second to the SNP the last time?

This time the Tories have as their “leader“ an out of his depth and rather dislikeable teuchter who is the branch manager for Boris Johnstons North Britain Conservatives, has a very suspect voting record and comes across to all but the party faithful as a b€ll end.

And Anas Sarwar who unlike DRoss is a likeable and capable politician. Unfortunately, he follows the no Indyref2 line from London Labour and many natural Labour voters (myself included) will not vote for a party that refuses to allow the people of Scotland the right to decide their destiny.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
What, like when the London based media went ga-ga when Ruth Davidson’s “Scottish“ Conservatives came a very distant second to the SNP the last time?

This time the Tories have as their “leader“ an out of his depth and rather dislikeable teuchter who is the branch manager for Boris Johnstons North Britain Conservatives, has a very suspect voting record and comes across to all but the party faithful as a b€ll end.

And Anas Sarwar who unlike DRoss is a likeable and capable politician. Unfortunately, he follows the no Indyref2 line from London Labour and many natural Labour voters (myself included) will not vote for a party that refuses to allow the people of Scotland the right to decide their destiny.
Any ideas how Ross managed to defeat the apparent favourite to be next SNP leader, Angus Robertson?

PS Scotland decided on their destiny, you just won't accept the vote.
 

El Barto

Active Member
Any ideas how Ross managed to defeat the apparent favourite to be next SNP leader, Angus Robertson?

PS Scotland decided on their destiny, you just won't accept the vote.
Every dog has his day? 😂

salmond got papped as well same election

just as 2015 was a reaction to 2014 in the WM elections, 2017 was a reverse repeat, albeit the scores on the doors was the 2nd biggest return in history for the SNP (35 out of 59 seats)

still waiting on the Tories getting close to those Numbers

no matter how much you downplay Brexit, it’s the main driver for no voters changing their mind (there’s also yes voters flipping but not to the same degree going by the pollin)
 

francobegbie

Active Member
Every dog has his day? 😂

salmond got papped as well same election

just as 2015 was a reaction to 2014 in the WM elections, 2017 was a reverse repeat, albeit the scores on the doors was the 2nd biggest return in history for the SNP (35 out of 59 seats)

still waiting on the Tories getting close to those Numbers

no matter how much you downplay Brexit, it’s the main driver for no voters changing their mind (there’s also yes voters flipping but not to the same degree going by the pollin)
Coming from a neighbouring constituency that also went blue, and having been brought up in Moray, I would say Brexit had a big impact. I think Moray was basically 50/50 on the Brexit question, probably down to the fact it's basically fishing towns and farmland. Also quite small c conservative.

From the chatter I've seen on social media from folks in the area, the fishermen are angry so I think his days as an MP are probably numbered.
 

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