Re-evaluating our relationship with COVID

Mevlock

Distinguished Member
The ability of the virus to mutate hasn't changed.

It's a coronavirus and it mutates slower than influenza.

However scientists have never had the opportunity to watch a novel coronavirus sweep the globe in a real time manner before. So while in theory they expected it to change at slower pace than the flu in reality due to our immune systems unfamiliarity to it and due to the sheer number of infected people it has mutated faster than expected. The OPPORTUNITY for it to mutate has increased. Not it's own innate ability.

Regarding vaccine efficacy it's not that covid has mutated to such an extent as to render vaccines ineffective, it's just that efficacy has dropped. All the lab based experiments show a that antibodies produced by vaccinated people are less efficient at neutralising some mutations.

Now even as we inch closer to the HIT variants may well cause havoc. Until we are well over the line just a small drop in efficacy could still put many in hospital and kill an awful lot of people.

People seem to have this misunderstanding that the vaccines will prevent all hospitalisations and all deaths. They won't. A 100% success rate in clinical trials is a great result. But it simply won't translate to the same percentage on a population level. Efficacies of around even 90% still leaves a very large number of the elderly and CEV susceptible to hospitalisation and death.

If you want a an idea of how much of a problem drops in efficacy MAY cause have a read of this:

 

Chappy79

Banned
Will we get to a point when only antivaccers are catching it? ;)
I hope so, it's their choice after all.
The ability of the virus to mutate hasn't changed.

It's a coronavirus and it mutates slower than influenza.

However scientists have never had the opportunity to watch a novel coronavirus sweep the globe in a real time manner before. So while in theory they expected it to change at slower pace than the flu in reality due to our immune systems unfamiliarity to it and due to the sheer number of infected people it has mutated faster than expected. The OPPORTUNITY for it to mutate has increased. Not it's own innate ability.

Regarding vaccine efficacy it's not that covid has mutated to such an extent as to render vaccines ineffective, it's just that efficacy has dropped. All the lab based experiments show a that antibodies produced by vaccinated people are less efficient at neutralising some mutations.

Now even as we inch closer to the HIT variants may well cause havoc. Until we are well over the line just a small drop in efficacy could still put many in hospital and kill an awful lot of people.

People seem to have this misunderstanding that the vaccines will prevent all hospitalisations and all deaths. They won't. A 100% success rate in clinical trials is a great result. But it simply won't translate to the same percentage on a population level. Efficacies of around even 90% still leaves a very large number of the elderly and CEV susceptible to hospitalisation and death.

If you want a an idea of how much of a problem drops in efficacy MAY cause have a read of this:


I understand all that but it just doesn't sit right with me.

Thousands will die just like thousands die of the flu, again why no lockdown or vaccine passports for the flu?

Every death is tragic I agree but we have to be sensible and realistic here.
 

Judge Mental

Well-known Member
I hope so, it's their choice after all.


I understand all that but it just doesn't sit right with me.

Thousands will die just like thousands die of the flu, again why no lockdown or vaccine passports for the flu?

Every death is tragic I agree but we have to be sensible and realistic here.
You’ve already been told why. The mortality and morbidity rates for flu are much lower than for covid. And there’s no reason why a particularly virulent and dangerous flu strain wouldn’t in future lead to lockdowns and vaccine passports.

What you think is sensible and realistic others might deem inhumane and self serving.
 

Chappy79

Banned
You’ve already been told why. The mortality and morbidity rates for flu are much lower than for covid. And there’s no reason why a particularly virulent and dangerous flu strain wouldn’t in future lead to lockdowns and vaccine passports.

What you think is sensible and realistic others might deem inhumane and self serving.
And what you think is sensible and realistic might seem inhumane to the families of those potential 650k flu victims a year.
 

Judge Mental

Well-known Member
And what you think is sensible and realistic might seem inhumane to the families of those potential 650k flu victims a year.
I’m not the one arguing against compulsory vaccination or vaccine passports. I think both have their place in certain situations.

You on the other hand are arguing against both in any circumstances.
 

Mevlock

Distinguished Member
I hope so, it's their choice after all.


I understand all that but it just doesn't sit right with me.

Thousands will die just like thousands die of the flu, again why no lockdown or vaccine passports for the flu?

Every death is tragic I agree but we have to be sensible and realistic here.

Being sensible and realistic is unlocking slowly while we vaccinate as much of the population as possible, it means we can keep infections low at the same time as establishing population wide immunity. While also putting in place a system to re-vax with booster or updates for the elderly and CEV.

This is the sensible thing to do.

After that?

Then yeah, if we get 20k, 30k deaths per year with full unlocking we will just have to put up with it.

As callous as that sounds I would see that as acceptable for a return to full normality as long as the NHS can cope, and cope well.
 

Chappy79

Banned
Being sensible and realistic is unlocking slowly while we vaccinate as much of the population as possible, it means we can keep infections low at the same time as establishing population wide immunity. While also putting in place a system to re-vax with booster or updates for the elderly and CEV.

This is the sensible thing to do.

After that?

Then yeah, if we get 20k, 30k deaths per year with full unlocking we will just have to put up with it.
I agree, I believe even now we will end up with less than 20-30k deaths a year now that most of the old and vulnerable have been vaccinated. 👍
 

Judge Mental

Well-known Member
I agree, I believe even now we will end up with less than 20-30k deaths a year now that most of the old and vulnerable have been vaccinated. 👍
You could still do your bit by having the vaccination and reducing their (and your) risk even further. Go on, you know it makes sense!
 
I agree with much of what's in the OP.

I'm encouraged by the mood music coming from government advisors in recent months, and Whitty's statement recently, about living with Covid and not attempting the moonshot of 'zero covid'.

After the restrictions are lifted in June, it should be irreversible as Johnson said. With the older population and vulnerable groups vaccinated, this should solve the issue of health services being unable to cope, and we can then take a managed approach toward the disease going forward.

Tweaked vaccines, to protect against any escape variants, should be offered to the over 50s and vulnerable groups or as necessary, probably on an annual or biannual basis.

Let's also not forget the role of treatments. The treatments and know-how have come along greatly and will play an important role in improving survival rates in hospital.

The so-called 'vaccine passports' should only be contemplated for international travel to destinations that demand it; such a scheme should have no domestic role.
 
The sheer desperation to rush down to the pub and go on cheap foreign holidays is something I find staggering.
I'd rather see my friends and family properly, something I've been unable to do for over a year.
I suppose a lot of the people who want to do the whole pub/holiday thing don't need to worry about seeing friends and family. They've been doing this thoughout, against the rules.
 

Judge Mental

Well-known Member
The sheer desperation to rush down to the pub and go on cheap foreign holidays is something I find staggering.
I'd rather see my friends and family properly, something I've been unable to do for over a year.
I suppose a lot of the people who want to do the whole pub/holiday thing don't need to worry about seeing friends and family. They've been doing this thoughout, against the rules.
That’s a bit of a leap. I don’t really see a ‘desperation to rush to the pub or go on cheap foreign holidays’. What I see is a desire to return to normality, to be able to do things that gave people most pleasure eg meeting and socialising with friends, spending holidays with family in the sunshine. Most people seem realistic about the prospects for foreign holidays.
 

Miss Mandy

Moderator
The sheer desperation to rush down to the pub and go on cheap foreign holidays is something I find staggering.
I'd rather see my friends and family properly, something I've been unable to do for over a year.
I suppose a lot of the people who want to do the whole pub/holiday thing don't need to worry about seeing friends and family. They've been doing this thoughout, against the rules.

Why does it have to be one of the other? I don’t go to the pub often, but when I do it’s with my friends and generally when I go on holiday it’s with my family.
I’m not sure why people wanting to get back to doing normal things when it’s safe to do so is being seen as a bad thing. It’s not that I’m particularly desperate to do those things, but when I do them it’s with my friends and family and seeing them properly is at the top of things I want to do. To me going to sit in a pub garden with my friends for a drink seems like a nice way to catch up particularly as it’ll enable me to support a local business too and help keep people in jobs.
 

Desmo

Distinguished Member
The sheer desperation to rush down to the pub and go on cheap foreign holidays is something I find staggering.
I'd rather see my friends and family properly, something I've been unable to do for over a year.
I suppose a lot of the people who want to do the whole pub/holiday thing don't need to worry about seeing friends and family. They've been doing this thoughout, against the rules.
Why so black and white? There's a whole world of grey out there that you're not thinking about.
 

Tourista

Well-known Member
Why so black and white? There's a whole world of grey out there that you're not thinking about.
Exactly....

Our economy and lifestyle today has far too many strands to be able to be shut down without serious long term consequences.
 

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