PS3 Likely To Achieve 50%+ Market Share

Discussion in 'Playstation Forums' started by Rasczak, Mar 23, 2006.

  1. Rasczak

    Rasczak
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    A new report has been published suggesting the PS3 is likely to dominate this round in the 'console war':

    Source:
    http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=16594
     
  2. Noggin1980

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    To be honest I think market share is relativly irelevent. It's completely about the number sold. If Sony sell 100 million ps3's as they have ps2's and that gives them a 50% market share.

    Thats means Microsoft would sell more Than 57 million 360's and Nintendo more than 42 million Revolutions. If this was the case its a victory for all 3 companys. If sony only sell 50million with the same market share then it doesn't look rosy for anyone particually (though no doubt nintendo would still make a fair bit of money on that)

    Microsoft would be thrilled to sell nearly 3 times the ammount of xboxs they sold.

    I have no idea why this companies guess involves tengths of a percentage. It seems completly bizzare to guess that way, when its impossible to be anything like that accurate.

    To be honest though you have to take these things with a huge pinch of salt. Remember the PS3 is going to cost $900 to make according to another analyst. These are intelligent people who are paid to guess best on the best information they can get. It's still a guess though.

    We know far to little about the ps3 to give any sort of accurate prediction about how it will do, except for basing it on the ps2 sales.
     
  3. Deleted member 92943

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    Going by the predicted price and the fact that over time it is not able to frop too much in price, i don't think as many people will buy a PS3 like they did with the PS2

    SONY are risking so much on all this new technology which which hasn't been established in the market already (Blue-Ray players) meaning that it's too open it being hacked and modded. The idea on Including Linux and using the PS3 as a computer is bloody crazy.

    I will be surprised if they can pull it off
     
  4. AgentCool

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    It's absolutely ridiculous; you can't do a long-term market speculation until, at the very least, the prices have been confirmed not to mention the final specifications.

    As far as Europe is concerned, if I was to speculate that all 3 consoles will be available in December 2006 with the 360 at £279, the PS3 at £400 and the Revolution at £150 I would estimate a PS3 market share at around 35%, 360 at 40% and Rev at 25% by December 2007. Longer term predictions are utterly pointless given the nature of the industry. As many people have established, the PS3 will sell solely on its brand name regardless of its final quality but its inevitable expense will put casual PS fanboys off for a while. Overall though, I think this is going to be the most even playing field of a console generation since the Mega Drive/SNES days. The 360 has the disadvantage of not being Sony but its successful sales so far in this territory put it at an advantage. The Revolution will always be the outsider but its originality will play well and ensure many early adopters, me included.

    But who knows? Anybody can go around flashing statistics in everybody's face - I've just done it myself - but reality always tends to be unpredictable.
     
  5. sikersh

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    Sony are not daft, they know exactly what they want to do and I honestly think they will pull it off, they may have delayed the PS3 but I suppose this was the best thing to do.

    I'm no fanboy, the 360 is a great machine and with me not played or seen a PS3 in action I can't say much, but its looking like it could be mind blowing!!

    Si
     
  6. mrtbag

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    You can. The company that this report quotes (In-Stat) are paid by big companies like Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo to make forcasts like this. How do you think Sony know how many to manufacture? They sure don't just pluck a figure from thin air.

    From the In-Stat web site:

     
  7. Tejstar

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    It's what analyst's excel at! :D
     
  8. AML

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    I know this has nothing to do with the market share, but microsoft people said that current gen systems wont be able to do 1080p games.

    720p is the more realistic resolution for any game on either the PS3 or the XBox 360.

    If you ask me this is probably true which means that the stupid statement Sony made about 720p not being "real" hi def and how "sony will decide when hi def gaming starts" is all bull.

    The PS3 may play Blu Rays at 1080p but i doubt any games will.

    I guess we shall have to wait and see then expect sony to eat their words.
     
  9. orange66

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    this will make you all smile, it is not meant to add to the argument about the console, just a reflection on analysts;

    Analysts Predict Users to Prefer Xbox 360


    Microsoft is likely to win the next round of the game console fight against Sony based on a potentially huge cost difference that could see the Xbox 360 selling for half the price of a PlayStation 3 by the end of next year, investment firm Merrill Lynch said in a Wednesday analysis.

    Based on a breakdown of the parts being used inside the two game machines, Merrill Lynch said the "PS3 will not only be significantly more costly than Xbox 360 at launch, but will continue to operate at a cost disadvantage for several years."

    It said Sony's PS3 is an impressive machine, but the costly components inside could raise the price of a PS3 to around $500 when it launches in the spring of 2006. By then, the Xbox 360 could be selling for US$249, Merrill Lynch estimated.

    Microsoft has announced two versions of the Xbox 360, a basic version for $300 and a premium edition for $400.

    The lower cost could put as many as 10 million Xbox 360 game machines into users' hands by the end of 2006, said Merrill Lynch.

    "As volumes ramp up, Microsoft should see an improved ability to lower hardware costs," said Merrill Lynch, making the Xbox 360 an even better deal for users. It would also encourage game developers to put their latest titles out more quickly, to capture the huge audience.

    The biggest cost issue for the PS3 is the Cell processor, Merrill Lynch said. Although Sony hopes the new microprocessor architecture could find its way into many new products beyond just the PS3, thereby lowering its per chip cost, Merrill Lynch believes the Cell won't gain much ground in other markets.

    "Processor architectures have been in consolidation mode for the last 5 years, and we think it's going to be difficult for Sony to find takers for Cell outside of the PS3," the investment banking firm said.

    Heavy research costs and expensive manufacturing could cause the Cell to cost about $160 per chip initially, Merrill Lynch said, compared to the $100 for the PowerPC chips used in the Xbox 360.

    The Blu-ray drive planned for the PS3 will also add about a $75 cost disadvantage, Merrill Lynch said, compared to the DVD-ROM drive Microsoft plans to install in the Xbox 360.

    Merrill Lynch also highlighted Sony's weaker financial situation compared to the strong position at Microsoft.

    "All of this might not matter were Sony in a position to take large losses on the PS3, but the company's financial situation raises questions about just how much money Sony is going to be willing to lose," the investment firm said.

    as a foot note, any analyst that can confidently predict market share to a percetage point, can give me the winning lottery numbers while he is at it.

    "Microsoft will take 28.6 per cent of sales, while Nintendo's Revolution console will have a market share of 21.2 per cent,"

    talk about BS...
     
  10. mrtbag

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    That would've been a great post. Except Merrill Lynch aren't analysts. They are A Finacial Investment firm. Yes, they may be well posistioned to offer an opinion on costs of stuff, but they know sweet FA about market share/end user opinion and such.
     
  11. orange66

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    huh? who do you think EMPLOY analysts?

    they dont know sweet FA?

    So Blu Ray wont cost anymore than DVD to bring to market? So the Cell wont cost anymore than the 360 CPU? So Sony are actually in a great financial position right now? So the Cell is being put into a wide range of consumer electronics made by other companies right now? Care to name the examples?
     
  12. mrtbag

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    All that article includes is their opinion on the financial aspects of the situation. The original post, was by a respected Market Reasearch/Analyst Company.

    I'm an analyst myself, and I know which opinion I'd believe. We have a saying in company 'Don't trust the bean counters opinion, just thier maths'.

    As an example, I could say that if you look at the costs of parts in a VW car they are more expensive than say a Seat. Does that mean the Seat will outsell the VW. Hell no.
     
  13. bonzobanana

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    Everyone predicts the Revolution will be in third place and maybe it will but its aiming for a very low cost price point compared to the PS3 and even 360. I mean the PS3 is going to be a serious purchase even at £300 and it could cost more but the Revolution could launch at something like £129. To be honest I can't imagine not buying a Revolution assuming some must have Nintendo titles come out for it. However the PS3 looks like its going to be very expensive at launch and I probably won't get one until its gone through 2 or 3 price drops. As it stands I'm not buying a 360 until 2 or 3 price drops which will hopefully mean software and hardware issues will be fully sorted out too. Maybe its me but the Xbox 360 and PS3 seem to be destined to be plagued with numerous problems where as the Revolution like most Nintendo products will be durable and dependable. Ok the Revolution might not be as powerful as 360/PS3 but I bet compared to the others the hassle factor will be practically zero and the all important fun factor will be higher.
     
  14. rss

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    I wouldn't trust the figures from these or any other analysts. Heck, even 'actual' figures can be manipulated to show whatever 'result' they require. Look at how many researchers are 'paid' to do their work by the companies that have a vested interest in their results.

    I think the true numbers are: Sony will do well, Microsoft will do well and we all hope Nintendo do well too.

    Besides, we play games, not consoles!
     
  15. AgentCool

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    I really don't think just because a big corporation is paying In-Stat to do these statistics that it is going to affect the actual outcome. Paying a company to predict the future is like me going to a fortune teller and asking her when I'm going to win the lottery. Simply using the term 'analysis' is essentially a paradox in this case because there is nothing to analyse as what they are analysing doesn't even exist. It's just a load of assumptions based on past experience. They may not be plucking the stats from thin air but the subject of their analysis certainly has been. If these analysis reports were even remotely accurate then Sega would never have bothered releasing the Dreamcast. I don't remember any financial hotshot predicting that outcome.

    A simple way to sum this up is when you say "how do you think Sony know how many to manufacture?". They don't, as Microsoft found out to their dismay last year. They can only estimate this and their guess is as good as the next man's. The console may do better than anybody expected or a lot worse, it's simply impossible to say with any authority one way or the other. Using analysis reports isn't going to change the fact that the future is unpredictable.
     
  16. mrtbag

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    I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one, as the above is nothing like pruducing sales/market forecasts.

    Don't get me wrong, I am not saying an analyst can give you the exact numbers, but they could get close.

    ??? So because the PS3 doesn't exist yet, there is absolutely nothing to analyse? Er.. How did the 360 do? How did the PS2 do? What do the specialist gaming shops predict in their sales forecasts? There are lost of figures to look at. It isn't guess work, it's making data driven decisions.

    Oh well, I guess what your saying is I'm just a fortune teller. :D
     
  17. Daddy k

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    i thought they shared most parts!
    mmm maybe sony should share xbox parts and get us the machine out this year! then we can decide which is best rather than looking at silly stats and saying "its rubbish compared to 360/cant be done/its better than 360/ etc etc

    also the price will be a shock i think in a good way!

    look at the price speculation in the sky hd thread! everyone knew everything then sky give it at a cheap price compared to what people thought it wud be.
    besides im sure they know theyv gotta keep it under a certain price otherwise parents etc wont buy it.
    im not really a playstation fan at all to be honest but im sure it will do very well,prob better than 360 too! but that doesnt mean the games are better.
    roll on nintendo ;)

    if the ps3 is at a bloated price and they insist on pushing all these techs n specs on it then many people cant afford to buy it at key times, ie xmas. then perhaps a 3do situation may happen! good console, great tech at the time compared to others but boy did it fail coz no one could afford one
     
  18. pez

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    and the games were rubbish.

    pez
     
  19. Tejstar

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    Analysts, be they ‘independent' or otherwise, use current market information and trends and make assumptions determining what could happen if those assumptions are true. A good research report will be clear in the assumptions used and it is up to the reader whether they believe those assumptions or not. They are normally thought pieces not hard fact. I personally wouldn't get worked up about it.
     
  20. colinwheeler

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  21. AgentCool

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    I can see where you're coming from with this but I think my problem with the whole 'predicting the future' thing is that it's based on past experience which isn't always the way it's always going to be. Just because Nintendo are behind now doesn't mean they will be in 5 years. Look at Sony, I doubt anybody could have predicted a full year before the PlayStation was released that it would be the monster success that it was.

    Expect the unexpected is what I say; I'm hoping for a Nintendo market dominance! It may sound unrealistic based on their immediate past but their next console is such an unknown quantity that making assumptions about its future before it's even born seems silly to me.
     
  22. addyb

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    Best post on this thread yet! Why should we care who has market share blah blah blah. I agree i own a 360 and am impressed but its not without its problems, i should imagine the PS3 will have some kind of issues when that arrives. As for Nintendo well i'll bet any money that they dont have issues at launch or defective hardware etc. Im looking forward to the games that will be produced with this new controller. Let Sony and Microsoft do battle whilst Nintendo will produce the more addictive games!!
     
  23. triplea4uk

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    Nintendo don't have really any quality games and they lost most of the exclusive ones they did have lets do a list of what Revolution will prob have.

    Mario
    Zelda
    Pokemon
     
  24. locky79

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    very harsh saying nintendo only has those three, they have a lot of other IP they can rely on.

    Pikmin
    Wario Ware
    F-Zero
    Metroid
    Animal Crossing

    and im sure nintendo have many others to show at the E3 show.

    personally i dont even want to guess the price of the games for the ps3.
     
  25. bishman

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    Even though you've missed plenty of ip's. Right there you have at least two reasons why any sane gamer should get a Revolution. I brought an N64 purely because I knew it was going to be the only way to play Mario 64 and whatever Zelda games they released.
     
  26. jedi-jae

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    PS3 games? I reckon RRP £49.99, just like Xbox360, but in reality they'll be on sales for £40, again, just like 360 games.
     
  27. Deleted member 92943

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    If the PS3 is better then good for SONY but i'm still sticking with Microsoft
     
  28. Daddy k

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    iv just saw the newer pics of the new nintendo, and pictured with the 360 ps3 etc and its tiny! like a mac mini! but boy does it look good!
    the revo controller thingy is gona be a right laugh at house party/multiplayer stuff, im more looking forward to the nintendo than the sony, i mean iv allready got a ps3 with a diff name and case aint i! itas called a 360!
    i want something different and fun! think its called a nintendo revolution!
     
  29. colinwheeler

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    I have never had a Nintendo so I am looking forward to it.
     
  30. Daddy k

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    uv never had the benefit of mario!!! :eek:
    mario kart:eek:

    and still to this day mario 64 is simply amazing! ill hapily play it from start to finish again!

    the back catalogue for this baby is gona be awesome!

    plus its gona be stupidly cheap! and damn how good will it look on the kit rack!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     

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