Predictions for when this will end

I reckon we have another 12 to 18 months of this which will probably be in successive lock-down/relaxation cycles,

Why? Compared to the total UK population of a little less than 68 million relatively few people are actually confirmed to have had the virus for definite (around 42,000 as of 5th April), with the amazing NHS just about coping. So when the infection rate is in steep decline they will release the lock-down and the cycle will start over again. It is probably the time-intervals between the lock-down/relax cycles will slowly decrease as other factors emerge like effective treatments Eventually, 12-18 months away, hopefully sooner the remainder of the population will have antibodies and probably around the same time there will be a vaccine.

So why are we not hearing this from the Government? I suspect the leadership don't want to have to deal with the consequences - I sizeable chunk of the population would go into sod-it mode and start wandering around, those with difficulties in coping with normal day to day life would go into melt down and the fragile business community would dissolve into mass bankruptcy. Serious civil unrest would promptly follow and has already been seen in Northern Italy.
 
This won't end soon, no way. Hence it is a good thing we went to this stage later than some suggested as it is very easy for many people.

But more interestingly, I think the end will be difficult to spot as everything changes. So one could argue that it will never end.

Best to get used to it, adapt, and change the way you generate income or trade for what you require.
 
suspect we might see a lightening of rules around late May.
The media is very fickle indeed. Once they realise the cost and damage that the lockdown is causing the country they will be pushing for rules to end. The unemployment figures will come out and predictions on cost will emerge (people will also stop buy papers and paying for sky subscriptions). People will also put the new deficit into context and work our new tax rates and how long it will take to pay off.
The other big concern is the human cost, the 2008 crisis created over 10,000 extra suicides, that’s people whose businesses collapsed, but there were still other opportunities and they had a social network to support them. Mental health cases and linked suicides will also go through the roof.
This will be helped by a new ability to look after people with the virus, sure
Some drug combos will also help reduce the fatality rate.
 
I expect that this will go on for many months - August / September is when many things will hopefully get back to some sort of normality, but it certainly won't be the same as before. Things like mass international travel will be off the agenda for at least a year, if not longer - certainly until a vaccine is widely available.
My top tip - don't buy shares in cruise ships...
 
Hopefully the same proves true here in UK when those antibody tests are rolled out later this month 🤞


Indeed. This could well be our get out of jail card



 
Look to the past to see the future. The 1918 Spanish Flu took 2 years before it disappeared...
Problem is that our who philosophy with dealing with this is to make it last as long as possible. Whole point of lock down!
spanish flu was allowed to spread
 
Problem is that our who philosophy with dealing with this is to make it last as long as possible. Whole point of lock down!
spanish flu was allowed to spread
Spanish Flu also mutated three times - one version was so deadly that you died 8 hours after you caught it. Covid-19 has already mutated once...
 
Spanish Flu also mutated three times - one version was so deadly that you died 8 hours after you caught it. Covid-19 has already mutated once...
There are 40 strains, according to Icelandic scientists.

 

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