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Predictions for when this will end

Stuart Wright

AVForums Founder
Staff member
I don’t think life will go completely back to ‘normal’ how it was pre-coronavirus. Like hand shaking should be a thing of the past.
But how long will it be before, say, schools reopen? Non essential shops reopen? The end of the lockdown?
In one Facebook group, they’re predicting dates like May, June and July.
But if the majority of the population is not immune, then I think resuming physical contact will mean a resurgence of the number of positive cases. Especially as we go in to Autumn and Winter.
Scientists are on TV talking about more waves once the first has died down.
So honestly I don’t think we should reopen schools and public gatherings until we’ve been vaccinated. Which is going to be about 12 months minimum, right?
So I predict May 1, 2021.
How long can we continue like this before the world economy collapses to a point where the government can’t subsidise those who need it?
 
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Rasczak

Distinguished Member
The current situation is not sustainable - its wrecking the economy and building up debt that will make the last decade of austerity look like the land of milk and honey. Once we are in a position where the NHS has more capacity to deal with those patients that are critically ill (by getting extra ICU beds and getting to Summer season), lift the restrictions. Late May/early June then perhaps.
 

gangzoom

Well-known Member
When an effective vaccine can be delivered to those most vulnerable this virus can than be truly compared to flu.

I would be amazed if we didn't have access to vaccines for at risk groups by september/October this year.

However I doubt things will go back to the way they were. Businesses will sadly fail, every country will have new debt to pay off, every currency will devalue, inflation will start soaring, no more cheap flights to every where. Interms of economics I think it'll set the world back to post WWII levels.
 

Stuart Wright

AVForums Founder
Staff member
I would be amazed if we didn't have access to vaccines for at risk groups by september/October this year.
I would be amazed if we did. It takes a year from the start of Phase 1 testing for a vaccine to be approved according to Dr. Tony Fauci. That started mid March. Then you have to produce and distribute it.
We’re looking at April 2021 at the earliest IMO.
 

Dr Force

Well-known Member
I think we will have a drip feed of peaks to the NHS. What I mean by that is the effects of the lockdown flatten the curve, once it’s manageable, lift the lid, then lockdown again, this is how I see the next 6 months......getting back to normal 12-18 months imo. Vaccine will no way be here for at least 12 months, but they might find a treatment to slow the progress, a bit like HIV for example.

What I do know is this, the face of business will be completely changed, larger businesses will realise that you can run an effective company without the need to have huge buildings ( I work for one the top four largest companies on the planet, all offices are shut with no impact on business to date)...time for landlords to feel the pinch, corporation Tax will go through the roof, reducing the large dividend tax losses for privately owned companies, corporate arrogance and greed will be a thing of the past because there will simply be a much greater share distributed to the services that run the country.

As for football...it’s about to have a major shock.....a completely broken business model of the majority of your turnover taken by wages will be gone, I can also see the premier league being sued by BT and Sky for breach of contract........you can’t play football if there is a 2 meter rule in place ....I digress.

So 6-12 months before we see relaxed social distancing
12-18 months before we see a vaccine and normality
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
Not sure I totally agree on the business points but @Dr Force is in line with my thoughts.
 

gangzoom

Well-known Member
I would be amazed if we did. It takes a year from the start of Phase 1 testing for a vaccine to be approved according to Dr. Tony Fauci.
Under normal situations yes, but virtually all 'normal' ethical/consent process in research is currently been weaved. It normally takes 4-6 months to even just publish an article in a journal like the Lancet but they are now giving decisions/turning around papers in 24hrs!!

The Ebola crisis in 2014 showed the challenges to rapid vaccine development/trial was more related to money/patents/development costs rather than science or manufacturing.

When big pharam (Merk) was eventually mobilised to be interested in developing a vaccine human trials started in Africa in Jan 2015, the WHO was notifed of the first cases of Ebola in the DRC in March 2014.


Ebola effected some of the poorest parts of the world, COVID19 is shutting down the developed world. The amount of resources/money/motivation for an effective COVID19 vaccine is on a level the world has never seen.

If we don't see human trials starting late summer I would be amazed, and I for one would have no issues signing up to any kind of clinical trail when it arrives.

Formal approvals are a different matter, the FDA has only recently 'approved' the first Ebola vaccines. But there is a huge difference between a drug/vaccine that works versus one that's been approved. Just become something isn't approved doesn't mean we don't have a treatment that works.
 

Skybird

Member
I’m not sure anyone could accurately predict how long the current lock down will last. Even the government, who have pretty detailed models, are reactive to unfolding circumstances. I see three possible outcomes though.

1. Lockdown continues throughout May, however increasing social disorder due to lack of food, money and unemployment forces the government to end the lockdown on some businesses. Infections continue apace, however the initial peak has been delayed sufficiently so NHS is able to cope with new facilities.
2. The government embarks upon massive COVID-19 testing in April, and manages to test 60% of the population by the end of April. Those who have had the virus return to work, those who have not / are vulnerable, remain under lockdown, supported by those able to work. Infection rate plateaus and NHS copes.
3. Infection rate continues to rise, despite lock down. NHS overwhelmed. Government accepts it has effectively lost the battle and moves to a triage system that prioritises those likely to survive, offering palliative care to those who won’t. Lockdown lifted as no longer effective end of April.

Either way, when we do start to emerge from lock down, and start to get back to work, the UK will be a different place For a very long time.
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
Under normal situations yes, but virtually all 'normal' ethical/consent process in research is currently been weaved. It normally takes 4-6 months to even just publish an article in a journal like the Lancet but they are now giving decisions/turning around papers in 24hrs!!
The deluge of Medical Papers has been crazy. The data is often based on information from China where the authenticity is massively questionable. Now data is coming from Italy too At least. I read an article yesterday that most are papers coming from China and in some cases holding back sharing information until they are published, desperate to be first to hit medical news. Crazy
 

Max2132

Member
I agree with all the comments on this thread, mass testing is the only real way of getting some type of traction in my opinion, antibody test, antigen is ok if you are working in the field but as far as I know and I am happy to be corrected it will only tell you if you have it, not if you have had it.

A more valuable test would be to tell if you have had it and are now immune(to some degree) and my reasons for that are there a lot of people self-isolating because they "think" they might have it but they are not really sure, to find out one way or another would be the best way forward and those people can go back to work.

As for how long lockdown will go on for, I did try to say in another thread but for some reason got shot down in flames for it, its not how long you can keep the lockdown going for, its how long the people will put up with it for, cracks are showing in other countries not just Italy, the thing is you don't see it on the mainstream news for the most part. So keeping people in until next year won't wash for many, being kept in for short periods for your health people understand but the longer it goes on the less sympathetic people get to why they are doing it.

I think it will get an extension until the end of April then they need to really start rolling out mass testing
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Yup. Social unrest will follow in months.

Back to normal (ish) come June. Maybe not totally normal till next year.
 

Max2132

Member
3. Infection rate continues to rise, despite lock down. NHS overwhelmed. Government accepts it has effectively lost the battle and moves to a triage system that prioritises those likely to survive, offering palliative care to those who won’t. Lockdown lifted as no longer effective end of April.
By the end of April I think we will have a good idea which way things are heading
 

IronGiant

Moderator
If we don't see human trials starting late summer I would be amazed, and I for one would have no issues signing up to any kind of clinical trail when it arrives.
If you are in the Thames Valley the Oxford Vaccine Group (I think it's them) are already recruiting volunteers.
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
By the end of April I think we will have a good idea which way things are heading
we are opening makeshift hospitals with capacities of tens of thousands. April will be a harrowing month for us.
 
we are opening makeshift hospitals with capacities of tens of thousands. April will be a harrowing month for us.
It definitely will. It will around the world, it will get a lot worse, a lot worse. All those countries with just a handful cases, I'm sad to say but they will all get it much worse as well.
 

keithwiggins

Active Member
Under normal situations yes, but virtually all 'normal' ethical/consent process in research is currently been weaved. It normally takes 4-6 months to even just publish an article in a journal like the Lancet but they are now giving decisions/turning around papers in 24hrs!!

The Ebola crisis in 2014 showed the challenges to rapid vaccine development/trial was more related to money/patents/development costs rather than science or manufacturing.

When big pharam (Merk) was eventually mobilised to be interested in developing a vaccine human trials started in Africa in Jan 2015, the WHO was notifed of the first cases of Ebola in the DRC in March 2014.


Ebola effected some of the poorest parts of the world, COVID19 is shutting down the developed world. The amount of resources/money/motivation for an effective COVID19 vaccine is on a level the world has never seen.

If we don't see human trials starting late summer I would be amazed, and I for one would have no issues signing up to any kind of clinical trail when it arrives.

Formal approvals are a different matter, the FDA has only recently 'approved' the first Ebola vaccines. But there is a huge difference between a drug/vaccine that works versus one that's been approved. Just become something isn't approved doesn't mean we don't have a treatment that works.
Agree , a vaccine will be fast tracked, no country can afford the impact this is having on there health services, at risk populations and bottom line. So well before the end of the year, then all the affected parties can turn there thoughts to pay back for China.
 

Lee

Moderator
Short term I think the key will be if a successful treatment is found. BBC news have just said a drug trial is about to start which is given to over 50s with health conditions. They'll be given it early after catching the virus to see if it stops severe symptoms. If that works then the country will probably be let back out earlier with some restrictions as opposed to continued tougher restrictions whilst waiting for a vaccine.
 

Ono

Well-known Member
Easter*. It will all end by Easter and churches will be packed and people back to work.

*Based on Easter being a nice time for this to end - President of the Most Powerful Country in the world.
 

Skybird

Member
Easter*. It will all end by Easter and churches will be packed and people back to work.

*Based on Easter being a nice time for this to end - President of the Most Powerful Country in the world.
And it will be the best, the greatest Easter ever. It’s really going to be something. We have the best Eastermen working on it right now.
 

Panavision

Well-known Member
Lockdown restric
Easter*. It will all end by Easter and churches will be packed and people back to work.

*Based on Easter being a nice time for this to end - President of the Most Powerful Country in the world.
That's a beautiful timeline.
 

fat jez

Well-known Member
A more valuable test would be to tell if you have had it and are now immune(to some degree) and my reasons for that are there a lot of people self-isolating because they "think" they might have it but they are not really sure, to find out one way or another would be the best way forward and those people can go back to work.
that all assumes you can only catch it once or that it won’t mutate. At the moment, that’s still a big assumption.

The common cold is a form of coronavirus, which differs every year, which is why we can’t cure it or produce a vaccination. Fortunately it is not a fatal virus, unlike its cousins MERS and SARS.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Depends what you would call normal or a form of normality. Probably be a very long time either way.

Partly it's down to when they feel it wll be safe to lift restrictions and then of course the time it will take for the economies to recover.
 

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