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One Year Before General Election 2015

Sonic67

Banned
Ukip have torn up the map - Telegraph

After their success in the local elections, Ukip are poised to wreak havoc in 2015.

These claims may seem exaggerated. But the more you look at the data – the further you drill down into how people actually voted on Thursday – the more you can see that predictions that Ukip will fade away are a case of wishful thinking. It is now crystal clear that the party really does have the potential to cause chaos in 2015, affecting all three parties in unforeseen and unpredictable ways.

Next election will be interesting. Either they will take power or disrupt the other parties.
 
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Deleted member 293381

Guest
I'm looking forward to an all-nighter in 2015. Drinks, coffee and popcorn by the side of the chair.

As you say - it's going to be very interesting.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Yep.

If the signs (LD rout/Labour not winning) are good. I might even take the next morning off work and watch it all the way through!

Did 9-1.30am the other night and, apart from the marginal BBC bias to the left, enjoyed it.
 
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Deleted member 585609

Guest
I really believe UKIP are going to get 10/20+ MPs. After this success despite having anti UKIP media whining about them all the time, I think anything is possible.

I don't think Cameron or Miliband will get a majority, and certainly don't think Clegg will be deputy PM again.
 

BISHI

Distinguished Member
The questions to be asked are-

Where will all the disaffected Liberal voters go.? ( obvious answer - Labour)

Who will UKIP be stealing votes from .? ( less obvious but most likely Tory).

So the clear beneficiary of this situation would be Labour.!

However, the biggest obstacle to labour credibility is their leader. Get rid of Ed and my money is on labour - keep him and we're looking at another coalition .
 

nheather

Distinguished Member
The questions to be asked are-

Where will all the disaffected Liberal voters go.? ( obvious answer - Labour)

Who will UKIP be stealing votes from .? ( less obvious but most likely Tory).

Less clear cut for me.

Most Lib Dem voters are middle class, well educated and affluent. Certainly those that value Pro-Europe as priority might choose to side with Labour but I don't think it is clear cut that they would move to Labour in general.

For UKIP I see two sources, those Tories that want to see EU changes but don't trust Cameron to deliver them and those working class people who are at the bleeding edge of the employment problems. Traditionally we have seen a big support for BNP and then UKIP in poor working class areas.

Sorry to use the terms working class and middle class - personally I don't like them but they still seem to be the best way to describe the situation.

Take Rotherham, in 2012 Labour won with 46.6% of the vote compared to Tory with 5.4% (behind BNP !!!). If the 2014 council elections had been a general election, the Rotherham MP would be UKIP.

However, I do strongly believe that if nothing changes (Cameron does pull something out of the hat within the next year) then net result will be to hand the country over to Ed.

Cheers,

Nigel
 

Sonic67

Banned
The European elections had a lot of "me2" UKIP parties. An Independence From Europe party, Referendum now party, No2EU etc. If these all disappear as they might in a general election (with the European election being proportional representation some of these parties may have hoped to send someone to Brussels) then presumably the voters from these will go to Ukip as well.

Also what if any of the main parties ditched their leader? What if the EU actually listened to the rise in anti EU parties and brought in some reform? What if Ukip picks up more votes as they get their act together and the electorate also doesn't see them as a wasted vote but as an alternative?
 

nheather

Distinguished Member
What if the EU actually listened to the rise in anti EU parties and brought in some reform?

Unlikely. Despite the rise of 'anti-EU' parties, even combined the pro-EU has a huge majority.

Knowing the arrogance of the EU Parliament I suspect it will be business as usual once the initial flurry is over.

Cheers,

Nigel
 

Greg Hook

Moderator & Reviewer
Unlikely. Despite the rise of 'anti-EU' parties, even combined the pro-EU has a huge majority.

Knowing the arrogance of the EU Parliament I suspect it will be business as usual once the initial flurry is over.

Cheers,

Nigel

Agree. When you go deeper into the way the EU and the MEP system works, whilst this is all big news at the moment, as far as the EU is concerned the Pro-EU parties still have a huge majority, so nothing is likely to change. Plus a lot of the new MEPs are unaffiliated ones who from what I read are invited to less meetings etc?

For the general election, 65.1% of people voted in the last General, compared to just 34.9% in the EU elections the year before or the 34.19% in the EU elections last week. UKIP were second in the last EU elections, they had 13 MEPs and 16.5% share of the UK vote. Then in the general the year after, they only got 3% of the vote. People tend to give more thought over their votes in the general elections, as they tend to look at all the policies the parties are offering. UKIP currently have none, so I can't see them doing anywhere near as good in the General. They may sneak an MP but not much more.
 

McPhee

Well-known Member
The European elections had a lot of "me2" UKIP parties. An Independence From Europe party, Referendum now party, No2EU etc. If these all disappear as they might in a general election (with the European election being proportional representation some of these parties may have hoped to send someone to Brussels) then presumably the voters from these will go to Ukip as well.

Also what if any of the main parties ditched their leader? What if the EU actually listened to the rise in anti EU parties and brought in some reform? What if Ukip picks up more votes as they get their act together and the electorate also doesn't see them as a wasted vote but as an alternative?

Those 'me2' parties have been around for years, and they actually lost a lot of votes this year versus 2009. The BNP were down 5.1%, the English Democrats by 1.05% and No2EU by 0.81%. Where do you think UKIP's votes came from? The overall 'Europsceptic' share of the vote has only risen by 4%. Overall, small 'protest' parties largely lost out this year, with the Christian People's Alliance dropping 1.33% of the vote, the socialist Labour Party losing 1.12% and The Roman Party losing 0.02%. That's another 2.47% of the vote up for grabs. The likely truth is UKIP gained very little from the main parties, with the Lib Dem rout being gobbled up largely by Labour. By and large, the 2014 European Parliamentary Elections mark UKIP's rise to the status of official 'Eurosceptic/Protest Party of the United Kingdom'.

Don't believe the hype. UKIP aren't doing half as well as they would like people to believe. The idea of them becoming a significant force in the next government is laughable. Not. Going. To. Happen.
 

Sonic67

Banned
Those 'me2' parties have been around for years, and they actually lost a lot of votes this year versus 2009.
12 lessons learned from the European elections - Telegraph

Copycat parties damaged Ukip vote

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but Nigel Farage would have rather done without.
If thousands of his votes had not been snapped up by fellow eurosceptic splinter parties, Farage’s night could have been even better.

The copycats - Independence from Europe and No to EU – appear to have damaged Farage's vote.

In the south-west, Ukip could have got another MEP and nudged out the successful Green candidate if they had picked up the additional 23,000-odd votes on offer.


BBC News - An Independence from Europe 'costs UKIP a seat'

Don't believe the hype. UKIP aren't doing half as well as they would like people to believe. The idea of them becoming a significant force in the next government is laughable. Not. Going. To. Happen.
See. Link. In. Initial. Post.

If it causes the main parties to lose votes in marginals I'd say that was significant. Depending on which poll you believe the Conservatives and Labour are close. Maybe by two percentage points. Who wins the marginals could decide who has power.

BBC News - UKIP - Where will it all end?

Will this election mark the start of a long march towards power, as UKIP hopes, or, as their enemies believe, will it be their greatest ever, but their last, significant victory? No-one can know.

What is clear is that this result has already triggered a bout of soul searching in the other parties.

Lib Dems are asking themselves - if we don't change leader what can we do to recover?

Labour are arguing behind the scenes about how seriously to take the incursion into their own heartlands.

The Tories are debating how much further they need to go in spelling out plans for EU reform and the control of immigration.

Even if this is not UKIP's breakthrough moment, this election has already changed a great deal.
 
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tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
^^^ but cancelled out by all those put off by Miliband

I think it will come down to voting for Labour rather than the leader. Labour could still have the most seats but repeat the Tories failure to get a majority. Reverse election.

The European elections had a lot of "me2" UKIP parties. An Independence From Europe party, Referendum now party, No2EU etc. If these all disappear as they might in a general election (with the European election being proportional representation some of these parties may have hoped to send someone to Brussels) then presumably the voters from these will go to Ukip as well.

They probably won't go away, just another challenge for Farage to tackle. Him whining about the Electoral Commission putting those parties on the ballot papers is not very democratic of him and calling for the Electoral Commission to be scraped is a bit of an over reaction. If he's that bothered he should take the EC to court over it.

Also what if any of the main parties ditched their leader? What if the EU actually listened to the rise in anti EU parties and brought in some reform? What if Ukip picks up more votes as they get their act together and the electorate also doesn't see them as a wasted vote but as an alternative?

Labour might fare a little better with a new Leader, but not much. It's got to rediscover it's mojo (ditch the Oxbridge lot, reconnect with it's roots etc) after Blair and Brown crashed it. The Tories ? Unless something dramatic happens Cameron will be the leader until after the election (Boris will push him into the Thames). As for the Liberal Democrats ? I think it will boil down to Liberal Democrat MP's wanting to survive on the backbenches vs those in cabinet wanting to ride out the coalition to the bitter end for personal gain (lots of money to be made after you've been in Government). Anyway Clegg is toast either way, he falls before the election or he loses his seat on Election night. We probably won't see much in the way of movement on Clegg's leadership until after the next reshuffle.

The cavet to keep in mind is that more people vote in General Elections, those are the people you need to see polling on, to see where their voting intentions lay vs those who won't vote (there's a niche for an Apathy Party). Whoever can grab those swing voters will have a good night and those that don't will have a nightmare. It's always a good idea to be cautious about General Elections as they tend to be entirely different beasts to Local and European Elections. Outside of all that, the election night coverage is probably going to be the best since 1997.
 

McPhee

Well-known Member
12 lessons learned from the European elections - Telegraph

Copycat parties damaged Ukip vote

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but Nigel Farage would have rather done without.
If thousands of his votes had not been snapped up by fellow eurosceptic splinter parties, Farage’s night could have been even better.

The copycats - Independence from Europe and No to EU – appear to have damaged Farage's vote.

In the south-west, Ukip could have got another MEP and nudged out the successful Green candidate if they had picked up the additional 23,000-odd votes on offer.


BBC News - An Independence from Europe 'costs UKIP a seat'

How dare those other Eurosceptic parties not bow down to Lord Farage! The cheek of them! The guile. There should only be one Eurosceptic party in the UK, and if you don't agree with its other views then tough (but we're not a one-issue party, honest).

An Independence From Europe and No2EU are both Left-leaning Eurosceptic parties. Maybe they appeal to the Left-leaning Eurosceptic voter? Or are you suggesting that Eurosceptics will vote for any old Eurosceptic party and generally don't care about their other views and policies? Doesn't that fly in the face of the message that Nigel Farage has been trying to convey for the past few years? I thought a vote for UKIP was supposed to be about more than wanting out of Europe?

I actually hope An Independence from Europe and No2EU thrive. It would be great for Eurosceptics to have more choice, and both parties have distanced themselves quite nicely from the xenophobia and racism that haunts UKIP. Given their other policies, there's little chance of either party picking up former BNP/EDL supporters.

See. Link. In. Initial. Post.

If it causes the main parties to lose votes in marginals I'd say that was significant. Depending on which poll you believe the Conservatives and Labour are close. Maybe by two percentage points. Who wins the marginals could decide who has power.

And that makes them a significant force in government, how? In the event of a hung parliament, they are incredibly unlikely to have enough seats to form a coalition government with either Labour or the Tories. Current predictions put UKIP at between 0 and 4 seats, which (by 2010 numbers) would make them (at best) the 7th largest party in parliament.

I'm not sure how significant they will be during the election either. I fully expect the 'Vote UKIP, get Labour' message to resonate quite clearly in marginal constituencies. If it doesn't then I guess the winner will be the party that loses the least voters to UKIP (and other one-issue/protest parties). That isn't exactly something to brag about...
 
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Sonic67

Banned
How dare those other Eurosceptic parties not bow down to Lord Farage! The cheek of them! The guile. There should only be one Eurosceptic party in the UK, and if you don't agree with its other views then tough (but we're not a one-issue party, honest).
I was assuming there will be fewer anti-EU parties and for that matter fewer parties in general standing in a General Election. If it is an issue that matters to you then presumably UKIP will pick up more votes as a result.
And that makes them a significant force in government, how? In the event of a hung parliament, they are incredibly unlikely to have enough seats to form a coalition government with either Labour or the Tories.
I am saying that it may lead to a hung parliament in the first place. The link above also seems to suggest that. It is significant as presumably the mainstream parties will be trying to woo voters back from UKIP to them. No one can really be certain how successful that will be. No one knows whether this is the high water mark or whether they will be "the protest party" or what. The SDP picked up seats years ago. UKIP might. Or might not.
Current predictions put UKIP at between 0 and 4 seats, which (by 2010 numbers) would make them (at best) the 7th largest party in parliament.
Depends on where you look. I've heard anything from zero, to eight, to a dozen seats. No one seems able to make an accurate prediction as I don't think this has ever happened before so there is little frame of reference.
I'm not sure how significant they will be during the election either. I fully expect the 'Vote UKIP, get Labour' message to resonate quite clearly in marginal constituencies.
Which would be true if UKIP were solely splitting the Conservative vote. The link at the start argues that doesn't seem to always happen.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
I was assuming there will be fewer anti-EU parties and for that matter fewer parties in general standing in a General Election. If it is an issue that matters to you then presumably UKIP will pick up more votes as a result.

General Elections tend to bring out all the parties, especially in the one coming up, given Europe will be an issue (it probably won't be the biggest one) there will be more reason for euroskeptic parties to be on the ballot paper. Especially some that really dislike Nigel Farage.


I am saying that it may lead to a hung parliament in the first place. The link above also seems to suggest that. It is significant as presumably the mainstream parties will be trying to woo voters back from UKIP to them. No one can really be certain how successful that will be. No one knows whether this is the high water mark or whether they will be "the protest party" or what. The SDP picked up seats years ago. UKIP might. Or might not.

Without UKIP, it was looking like a Hung Parliament. And will probably be a Hung Parliament with UKIP. All we know for certain about UKIP is they have in the past performed well in European and local elections (when held on the same day) but tend to shrink back at a General Election. I think UKIP will grab a few marginal seats off the Tories but I doubt they'll do enough to effect the balance of power in Parliament. Especially if Labour manages to wheeze into the commons with the most MP's. The thing UKIP have to watch out for is the Green Party. They did very well in these elections.

Depends on where you look. I've heard anything from zero, to eight, to a dozen seats. No one seems able to make an accurate prediction as I don't think this has ever happened before so there is little frame of reference.

Well the problem is the turnout for the Local and European Elections were quite low compared to what a turnout for a General Election is like. It's always difficult trying to make a prediction on the result of a General Election from local and European results as you don't really know if people who voted in protest to give their respective parties a bloody nose will go back to them in a General Election. I think most Labour supporters will go back to the party. But I think it's less likely Tory voters who've switched from the Tories to UKIP will go back.

Which would be true if UKIP were solely splitting the Conservative vote. The link at the start argues that doesn't seem to always happen.

It's going to come down to local and national issues constituency by constituency. The marginals are probably more predictable. You'll know if Labour is having a good night next May if they unseat Clegg and take key marginal seats off the Tories and keep the seats they've got. It'll be tighter if Scotland votes to leave the UK. But not impossible for Labour to have the most seats, there was a lot of academic research done on this. I shall try and find it.

It's as I said, it's best to be cautious about General Elections and not to read too much in the polling, as that way leads to disappointment. Though tbh I watch Election night with one eye on whose winning the race to get the most seats and unpopular Politicians sweating over losing a seat. I never did think the Tories were going to do enough to win in 2010, Cameron looked utterly complacent and walked into the disaster that were the leadership debates.
 
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Deleted member 293381

Guest
I think a very large number of people stay up and watch a general election unfold well into the following morning. After all, it marks the beginning of a 5-year period of a new parliament or same-old-same-old.

Many years ago, when Blair's government was voted in for a second term (2002?), we had a champagne breakfast at a friend's house. That was an all-nighter with a mix of people - some Labour, some Tory. Earthy comments and jokes flying around. Great fun.
 

Steve N

Distinguished Member
...the biggest obstacle to labour credibility is their leader....
I think the same but can't see anyone else in Labour who you could call inspiring either !
 

BomoLad

Well-known Member
UKIP will under perform at the general election if we're using last week as barometer in terms of share of the overall vote. A significant part of their appeal last week was people being seen to contribute towards a movement that would make an impact. When people realise just how unlikely they are to win a single seat in 2015 it'll take a lot of the wind out of their sails. They'll still be a problem for the Tories mainly, predominately splitting their vote. But if there was a poll of voting intent in March next year when the campaign should be ramping up, the number of people who voted UKIP at the European elections who say they'll vote UKIP at the general election may well nearly halve.

The next parliament could well be one without any significant third party representation, I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems held onto 15 seats.
 

Cliff

Distinguished Member
Cameron is doing his utmost to show he is getting tough with Brussels and hoping to bring back results before the next election to prove the Tories are serious about EU reform. This, and the promise of a referendum will boost his support.

UKIP, bolstered by the recent results will probably gain more support now they are considered a serious party with a plain speaking (charismatic?) leader. Expect them to do well again

Labour seem to be ignoring any discussion about EU reform and Miliband, like the captain of the Titanic is saying "what Iceberg?" Expect poor showing along with LD
 
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Deleted member 293381

Guest
Can't see anything matching election night 1997 when famous faces were dropping like flies
- they're mostly witless boring robots now

Agreed. I remember when Michael Portillo lost his seat in 1997. His look of shock was something to behold.

Poor sod.
 

BomoLad

Well-known Member
I think with the collapse of the Lib Dems with a good portion of their vote going to Labour and the rise of UKIP who, even at 10% of the vote could damage the Tories, i think 2015 could be an election Labour would have to do spectacularly poorly in to lose.
 

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