Next Tory Leader - The Long Road to #10

Discussion in 'Politics & The Economy' started by tapzilla2k, Jul 17, 2015.

  1. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    Thought it might be worth starting a thread on this as we are probably in for a long and silent leadership campaign between the contenders.

    Top 3 -
    1. Boris
    2. May
    3. Osborne

    Outsiders (my guesses)
    1. David Davis
    2. Jeremy Hunt
    3. Michael Gove
    4. Sajid Javid

    Who do you think has the best chance of becoming Tory Leader and ergo Prime Minister.
    The Big Question - Will Cameron choose when to step down or will be forced out in the traditional Tory way ?

    My gut says Boris, my head says that Theresa May should have a decent shot at it given how long she's survived in the Home Office.
     
  2. EarthRod

    EarthRod
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    My guess is Osborne.
     
  3. IronGiant

    IronGiant
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    5 years is much longer than a week in Politics. Too early to call :)
     
  4. krish

    krish
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    No chance for May.

    Hunt is a good punt as an outsider as he's a lucky Jeremy.

    Really only between two people. I think we reached peak Boris circa London 2012 zip line, he's definitely ridden that crest, and fudge ups and skeletons could be on their way. But is Gideon just the next Gordon?
     
  5. pandemic

    pandemic
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    So nobody thinks Cameron will renegade on his claim that he won't run for a 3rd term? I think there is high likelihood that if Labour don't select a competitive leader, he'll run a 3rd term.

    On the ops top 3, don't think any of them will make it when the time comes, certainly not May or Osborne - just cannot see them being appealing to the wider UK populous.

    My bets on Cameron running in 2020 and somebody out the blue will replace him, between the following 5 years - depending on the results of the 2020 GE.
     
  6. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    Hence the Long Road to #10. Lots of things could blow the Tory Leadership race wide open -
    1. Economic blips
    2. CSA Scandal exploding.
    3. Splits over Europe.

    She's definitely going to have a run at the job, but unless something dramatic happens then I think she'd probably drop out of the race before any voting takes place.

    He stands a chance if scandal engulfs Boris and Osborne. Though Jeremy Hunt might be in a spot of bother with his 7 day NHS plans.

    I wouldn't count Boris out entirely at this stage. He's got a bit more charisma than Osborne has. Who fell pretty flat when he did PMQ's the other week.

    He can try but if he mishandles the EU referendum and can't keep his backbenchers under control then he is probably toast. The danger for the Tories is that they will see 2020 as in the bag and it not mattering who the leader is, which could backfire on them during the next Parliament. I don't think Osborne is suitable for the top job as he'll probably turn out to be a bit like Brown i.e. both are great at political tactics but woeful on selling policy to the people.

    I doubt the Tory Party will be thinking along those lines, especially if Labour's leader is seen as weak as Ed Miliband. Hubris in other words may lead the Tories into making a miscalculation as 2025 might be a bit of a closer fight (I'm hoping Dan Jarvis runs for Labour Leader next time around by all accounts he terrifies some of the Tories as he's seen active military service).

    Cameron faces an uphill battle to stay as PM. He's got too many enemies on the backbenches and a cabinet full of people after the top job. As history shows the Tory Party is quite ruthless when it wants to be over it's leaders.
     
  7. fluxo

    fluxo
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    David Davis would be my preference.

    Historically, those elected as party leaders are often not the expected choices. Conversely, those who are considered to be potential future PMs (e.g., Heseltine and Portillo in their time) do not necessarily get close. It would be futile to make a prediction.
     
  8. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Too far away to predict. Look how John Major popped out of nowhere when Mrs Thatcher was stabbed in the back.

    My bets are still with Boris. May will not be fresh, Davis is a spent force, Osbourne maybe, but that depends on how the country improves in terms of jobs and real spending power in people's pockets.

    As for Cameron, I just don't see him as wanting to stay on. He is not that kind of person. He has already said as much and that is not because of some promise like Blair had with Brown.
    The EU vote will be tough, he will have a few more grey hairs, and thinking about a job change.
     
  9. domtheone

    domtheone
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    No chance Osborne. Just hasn't got the charisma and/or the likeability factor.

    May, ditto.

    Hope Boris gets a shot but he's a Clarkson style love or hate him figure and he may not get enough love.
     
  10. krish

    krish
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    Having had his mockney geezer a year or two ago, it's going to be fun watching his ongoing makeover, probably won't be as car crash as Gordon Brown's attempts at looking and sounding normal.
     
  11. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    That will be a lot more entertaining. Though I would guess it might be all for naught if the Economy has a blip in the middle of the Tory Leadership fight/election.
     
  12. Enki

    Enki
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    Davis or Gove, look the most natural, May looks as though she smoked and drank to much coffee. Osbourne Boris and Javid are just odd, floating voters will run a mile from the x on the ballot box, having one of those threesome to choose from, lots of games and witty dark humour to be had for opposition spin doctors.
     
  13. Cliff

    Cliff
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    Remember the ladies seem to go for Boris rather than the other boring MPs:)
     
  14. Enki

    Enki
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    Do they. If you are into his political ideology, I'm sure he is great, jolly good fun chappie and I can see why people think he has wide appeal. he'd be good wing man.
     
  15. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    And there are plenty of women who don't. The Tories will likely win the next election by virtue of an Economy that's stuttering along and Labour being in chaos. Unless something big happens, a donkey could be Tory leader and win the next election.
     
  16. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    Stuttering along?
     
  17. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    Lets be honest, the Economy while it's recovered is not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment. And with the news that the property market in London may well be a means to launder dirty money, there maybe trouble ahead for the UK's Economic reputation. While David Cameron has been uttering about London not being a place for dirty money, it seems he's been snoozing on the job or turning a blind eye to it - Case reveals London’s role as global money-laundering centre | ExaroNews
    That's an example from 2012.

    I'm assuming that this also took place to a certain extent in the Blair and Brown years. I guess if you strip out the properties used to launder money then the London Property Market would probably deflate rapidly.
     
  18. Enki

    Enki
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    The old foreign fraudsters line, those ghastly foreigners types, with their funny ways. Strange they never refer to the UK mediators, legal representatives, accountants, financiers and estate agents, who can’t wait to aid the cleansing, for a nice wodge of the funny money.

    The only time I hear Boris, as likable by the opposite gender, is in the cuddly and funny manner, which translates to I feel sorry for you!
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2015
  19. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    So same old through the record Brown years ... I'm not claiming the growth is as solid as it could be, but it has always been thus, and we've over taking France if we haven't already. Compared to Eurozone (inc Germany) we're doing extremely well, although Spain and Ireland are powering along now too, lets hope the lost generation can get some jobs.
     
  20. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    We simply do not know how resistant the UK Economy will be to an Economic shock to the Global Economy. As for France ? Not that hard to do better given the French haven't really woken up to the Economic problems they face. I could see them going cap in hand to the IMF eventually.

    The biggest danger to the Eurozone countries remains Greece. It's just had the can kicked down the road again. Osborne has been relatively lucky that the World Economy is chugging along and the bond markets haven't turned on him. But then a lot of Chancellor's of the Exchequer ride their luck till the bitter end.
     
  21. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    Well the Greece deal looks like it's on the skids already.
     
  22. krish

    krish
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  23. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    Well he might want to stay on and fight in 2020, but again it depends on how the EU vote goes and if he can keep the Tory Party mostly intact or it could descend into Major like Rebellions, bringing Government to a standstill.
     
  24. krish

    krish
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    Will scupper Boris, who'll be ~60 around the time he could contest the leadership and might just throw in the towel
     
  25. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    Who knows with Boris, becoming PM is his dream by all accounts. Plus he must be pretty miffed at how Cameron became Leader and lucked into a small majority due to Labour being woeful. Seems like Cameron was resigned to defeat when he made that announcement, now he finds himself still as PM with a majority. Who wouldn't want to try and carry on.
     
  26. domtheone

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    Plenty

    Given the enormous challenges this country faces, some simply wouldn't want to go on fighting an endless battle to make any difference.

    Some might wan to bow out with some dignity too.

    To about face and say he wants to do another term would be a right kick in the teeth to some.

    I actually think it's healthy to have change periodically. Say 2 terms like the US system.

    We had far too much of Blair. Don't want that again (already too long for some) with Cameron.

    Need a Conservative leader for a Conservative party.
     
  27. Greg Hook

    Greg Hook
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    Boris will be the next Tory leader.

    Feel free to search for this post in 5 years time to quote me. :)
     
  28. IronGiant

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    We just need some sort of bookmark to be able to find it easily.

    supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
     
  29. domtheone

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    I don't doubt it.:thumbsup: Well a little.
     
  30. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    You've got that already - Eton and Oxbridge Educated Prime Minister. Thatcher was something of a blip in the Tory Party. She still sets the tone for British Politics, no matter which party you support.
     

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