New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK

Discussion in 'Hybrid, PHEV & EV Electric Cars Forum' started by Stuart Wright, Jul 26, 2017.

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  1. jassco

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    Really intrigued where your bias comes from because that whole post is a load of crap, particularly about motorsports.

    Firstly both seat belts and ABS brakes had nothing to do with motorsport. I didn't bother looking up the rest. Secondly, why would innovation in safety science stop just because they use a different fuel source? If anything, different car configurations would allow for new advances in safety.

    Then for the manufacturers of niche vehicles - they'll go exactly the same way as other companies that don't innovate if they don't innovate.
     
  2. Chevyonfuel

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    I can delete my post if you wish. Please accept my apologies. I've added some words to the bottom to correct my errors.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2017
  3. Chevyonfuel

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    I only know a little bit about drag racing unfortunately. Teslas are nice for embarrassing a 918 or P1, but they're not very quick cars in the grand scheme of things, from what I'm told.
     
  4. IronGiant

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    Chillax, we're not all after your blood :smashin::thumbsup:
     
  5. Chevyonfuel

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    It's all good, I gather I came to this corner of the forums by mistake. Back to push rod V8 dinosaurs on the other side :D.
     
  6. IronGiant

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    They will still be around even after 2040, although buying fuel for it may be a different :) Anyone remember those paraffin fuel pumps you used to see outside hardware shops?
     
  7. domtheone

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    Yup. So realistically, peeps will still be driving around in their petrol (or hybrid petrol) cars in 2045 (i'm assuming Diesel will be gone by then).

    28 years so that puts me at 72. If i'm still around i'll have emigrated by then so really, it's a non issue for me:D
     
  8. IronGiant

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    Emigrated to where? EV's may get there before you do :D
     
  9. Epicurus

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    In 1970 there were 42,000 petrol stations in the UK. This year there are around 8,200. Fuel use is continuing to decline and this announcement sounds the death knell for investment in new service stations, although last year was the first year since 1970 the number of new petrol stations had increased instead of fallen.

    Most of the closed petrol stations have been used for car sales, hand car washes and workshops, with the rest being alternate development, mostly residential. I would imagine we will now see this process accelerated. While the government may press ahead and mandate the installation of EV chargers at motorway service stations, this will now seem like a final kick to a decaying corpse of an industry.

    Obviously there will still be vehicles needing fuel in 2040, but that will be provided by a fraction of the sites available today, and may well be provided by unmanned sites. This will represent not just a loss of £30bn of fuel tax, but also most of the VAT, business rates, licence fees and corporation tax petrol stations currently pay. Not to mention the thousands of jobs they currently provide.

    23 years sounds like a long time, but it will quickly disappear and I hope between now and then we have some sensible government and pro active entrepreneurs who fill what will quickly become a chasm in public finance and employment.
     
  10. IronGiant

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    Most people now buy fuel at the supermarket, that's why the others have died. Natural selection will progress.
     
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  11. Alan CD

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    Exactly.

    Natural selection will eventually see the demise of the internal combustion engine as the major motive force - assuming the progression from ICE to EV will continue without major obstacles.

    The electric motor is a wonderfully efficient means of providing motive force. However the battery packs used today are a poor way of storing electrical energy to drive the electric motor.

    One day, hopefully, another more practical and efficient way of of providing electricity to the motor will be found.
     
  12. True Romance

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    Lol was thinking the same looking forward. Will be using an EV motor by then but won't be a car but a mobility scooter :eek::D
     
  13. Delvey

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    As stated, battery technology is the limiting factor for range at the moment. But I think this will be solved soon. Whomever cracks it will make a large amount of money hence I imagine there is a lot of research.
    As for ICE cars disappearing it will probably take a decade after the ban to really notice the effects. People will still use petrol (likely diesel will be a no no for cars) as it's only new cars being banned. And there are plenty of 10 year old plus cars knocking around.
    Hopefully petrol stations will still be around, but will be charging stations instead.
     
  14. gangzoom

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    Have you guys actually driven a current EV powered by lithium ion batteries???

    As many forum members on here will now confirm, even an EV with a relative small battery pack like the Leaf/Hyundai can manage most daily trips with no issues.

    Tesla have reached 100kWh usable on their current cars, at 3 miles per kWh that's a range of 300 miles. That's MORE than what I use to get from a full tank of unleaded from a BMW 335i. People also worry about the weight of the batteries, a Tesla is heavy at over 2 tons, but have you seen the weight of an equivalent BMW 5/7 series or a RangeRover, theres barely a few 100Kg difference.

    Yes higher density energy batteries would be great, but they are also going to cost ALOT MORE to manufacture than the current lithium-ion batteries, which aren't exactly cheap in the first place.

    What is needed isn't newer battery tech, is cheaper battery tech. The range is already good enough for the majority of road users.

    The only thing stopping Nissan from sticking a 60kWh battery pack into the current Leaf isn't due to a technological barrier - Even back in 2015 Nissan already had a 60kWh pack which was barely any bigger or heavier than the 24/30kWh pack found in current Leaf......The reason it still hasn't seen the light of day is price. People will pay £60-70K for a Tesla but no one is going to pay £50K for a Nissan Leaf. Hopefully in September this year we will see just how much progress Nissan has made in getting the price of the 60kWh down.

    Nissan's 60-kWh, 200-Mile Battery Pack: What We Know So Far
     
  15. IronGiant

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    If they develop a cheaper battery technology then why could that not be a new technology?. Finding a cheaper way of making Li-ions isn't the only way forward. And charging time is still a huge factor, more so the bigger the capacity gets.
     
  16. gangzoom

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    Ofcourse better/cheaper tech is always welcome, but that not looking likely if your talking about increasing charge density and improving degradation. There is ALOT of smoke/mirrors around battery research, different people claim a 'revolutionary new design' every few months - wasn't Dyson promising something new 6-12 months ago??

    The only people I trust to deliver better battery tech are the people making them right now, and that's Panasonic/LG/Samsung. If you watch what they say about future battery tech you wouldn't be surprised to find they say very little to nothing at all....IF anyone truly has a revolutionary new battery tech ready for mass production the last thing you want to do is let your competition know about it....Infact they even say very little about their current EV batteries.

    Better batteries will come, but they aren't needed for mass adoption. A Tesla supercharger can add 20kWh+ of energy into a Tesla battery pack in around 10 minutes - That's the equivalent of been to fully charge your Leaf in 10 versus 30 minutes. And the Tesla chargers aren't even running at full speed, lots of rumors 300KW+ charging is around the corner, your than talking about been able to add 20kWh in <5 mintues, which is getting close to how quickly you can pump petrol......How you generate 300KW of electricity however is a different issue.
     
  17. Delvey

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    First, chill out
    Secondly, it was not a moan. It was simply saying that battery technology is the limiting factor for electric cars. As the technology improves, they become lighter, cheaper and will have a higher range. This will come in time, no doubt.
    The next achievement with electric vehicles will come with freight. A lorry to have the range of a current diesel model will have to carry around 25 tonnes of battery. When the technology improves, this will be reduced (whether it be with new batteries or improving current ones) and then it will become feasible for electric HGVs
     
  18. Delvey

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    I was under the assumption rapid charging could reduce the life expectancy of the batteries?
     
  19. GadgetObsessed

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    If car charging follows progress in rapid charging on mobile phones then that should not be the case.

    Instead of just trying to up the wattage, charging on phones has become smarter. The latest generation of phone chargers are much faster but also more efficient. They monitor the temperature of the battery to keep the temperature down - more efficient and prolongs the life of the battery. They also adjust the charging rate according to how full the battery is. Basically the lower the battery level the faster it can accept additional charging. This is why many of the new chargers talk about how fast they can get to say 50% rather than total charging time. The last 10%,or so still charges pretty slowly.
     
  20. Alan CD

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    Wow - 3 question marks. No, I have not ACTUALLY driven an EV, but intend to do so later next year.

    What driving an EV has to do with researching current battery pack technology I have no idea and have no intention of pursuing that any further.
     
  21. gangzoom

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    Battery degradation in current Tesla's using current lithium-ion tech is proving to be non-issue. This is all data from the video is as below. @Alan CD if you want to do your own regression analysis, it's all there :).

    Cost really is main barrier to EV range/adoption rates, and that is changing very quickly.

    MaxRange Tesla Battery Survey

    Tesla Batteries Last Forever (Basically)
     
  22. GadgetObsessed

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    To me it is interesting to think of the impact that having EV cars will bring:

    (1) Tax revenue - in 2015 VED raised £6bn and Fuel Duty raised £27bn. VAT on new cars and on fuel added another £9.5bn. That is a total of £42.5bn. It doesn't seem an unreasonable assumption that the government will aim to keep the revenue from motorists constant. VED and VAT on new cars could easily be maintained at current levels - assuming that once EV cars become common that the rates for such cars rise to be similar to the current levels for petrol/diesels. Fuel duty will need to be replaced with a new income source. I think that it would be electorally unacceptable to tax electricity generally. So that means a mechanism is required to tax EV drivers in some other way. This could be through a tax on charging points or power provided through charging points. However, my bet would be that a road usage scheme (e.g. xp per mile driven) will be implemented. From an economics perspective real time road pricing would be ideal e.g. the busier a road is the more it costs to drive on it. This should encourage more efficient use of the road network overall but would result in some local issues. For example, suppose your town is on an alternative route to a busy A road. When the price of the A road goes up your town will get much busier.

    (2) Impact on the electricity supply generators - a lot has been published about how the switch to electric cars will increase electricity demand significantly - requiring many new power stations to be developed. However, I wonder if the rise of EV cars will actually be to the benefit of the UK energy producers. At the moment the issue with electricity supply is that there has to be enough capacity to support peak demand. There is plenty of capacity at off peak times. If electric car users could be persuaded to charge their cars at off peak times then they may not significantly stress the electricity supply at all. To do this there would need to be time based electricity pricing. This could either be fixed (e.g. electricity is half price between 1am and 5am) or variable, where the price would vary based upon current demand. Chargers would then have to be smart enough to take advantage of this. For example, you may plug your car in when you get home but it does not start charging until the time for reduced price charging. It has long been mooted that the only real reason to upgrade all households to smart meters is so that smart pricing could be introduced.

    If electricity production could be spread more evenly throughout the whole 24 hours of a day then electricity production overall will be more efficient. This will make electricity production a more attractive industry to enter.

    (3) Impact on electricity users. To me it would seem inefficient to have a huge battery stuck on my drive in my car and then not take use that battery, other than for driving. For example, the battery in the car could be used in the same way as the Tesla Battery Wall. You could charge the battery up when power is cheap and use that power in your home when power is expensive or simply limited e.g. by a power cut. Batteries also offer effective ways of storing power from renewable storage home solar panels.

    (3) Home charging points - having a home charging point seems simple if you have your own off road parking. However, what are people who live in terraced houses supposed to do? Firstly, I assume that you are not allowed to simply run a cable from your house across the pavement to your car. Secondly, some people get very possessive about the parking space in front of their house and feel that other people should not park there. This would get much worse if you cannot park your car in fron tof your house to charge it because someone else has parked there. I assume that there will need to be some provision of charging points on public roads in residential areas. One option I have heard of is to build charging points into lamp posts.

    (4) Non-home charging points - there is the assumption that by 2040 there will be a mass of publicly available charging points. However, maybe that may not be the case. Imagine a situation where a very large proportion of households have their own EV charging points. Additionally, what if the range of electric cars doubles within the next 23 years - from around 350 miles to around 700 miles. With that kind of range few people would need to charge their cars away from home. This may mean that there isn't a large enough market to support a large number public charging points. Instead I would expect enterprising startups to come along to allow home users to rent out their chargers.

    (5) Impact on the environment - the energy currently provided by petrol and diesel will need to be replaced by electricity. Much electricity is still generated by burning gas and coal. Electricity transmission is quite inefficient and the storage and retrieval of energy from a battery introduces more inefficiencies. (Batteries are at their most inefficient when being drained quickly so electric cars apparently have reduced ranges when doing say 80 mph on a motorway.) Balanced against this is the energy used to refine and transport petrol and diesel. I do not know what the overall effect on CO2 would be as a result of this switch to EVs. However, you can expect that overall there will be an increase in pollution from electricity producers and a cut in local pollution from vehicles.

    An area that I wonder about is the disposal and recycling of vast amounts of batteries from EV cars when they reach the end of their life span. Where will all these batteries go? Will it be possible to recycle them? Possibly not if battery technology changes significantly over time. For example, we used to use Nicad batteries now we use Lithium Ion. In the future if we switch to a new technology, old Lithium Ion batteries may not have any reusable parts that anyone wants so essentially they just have to be dumped.

    (5) Impact on houses near roads - at present there are many houses that are blighted by being on very busy roads. My brother in law for example has a great house with lots of land but he could only afford it as it is right next to the M2 motorway. EV cars are not silent, they still generate just as much tyre noise as regular cars, but overall they are quieter. Plus they don't emit any local pollution. Could we see more people willing to live next to the quieter and cleaner roads of the future? This could lead to far more housing development along areas such as motorways.
     
  23. Alan CD

    Alan CD
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    The video title - "Tesla Batteries Last Forever (Basically)".

    So there is no need to watch the video, it's all in the title.
     
  24. Delvey

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    You have 2 number 5s
    And coal power is a small percentage of our output in the summer.
    As for the video, nothing lasts forever. Even if the title says otherwisr
     
  25. IronGiant

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    I don't know about current figures but inbn 2015 the Ceramic and Glassware Industry used almost as much Lithium as the battery industry, so , so long as they can extract the Lithium than there would be some use for old batteries. I wouldn't be surprised if they were reused for applications where having 100% capacity was less important (Something Tesla has a finger in unless I'm mistaken).
     
  26. jjgreenwood

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    I work in the industry and while EV's are not big sellers today this is entirely possible by 2040. All the big players are moving towards electric and different ownership models. Car ownership will begin to change by 2020 and by 2030 I think that ownership of cars will only be for the rich.

    In my brand we will be launching several electric models between 2020 and 2023 all of which will have inductive charging - ie no need to plug them in if the parking space has the required equipment. They will charge to 80% within 30 minutes and be good for a couple of hundred miles on that charge. I can see the brand taking space in large car parks for these vehicles and in other countries we have schemes in place where customers use phone apps to find out where cars are and pay a monthly subscription to use them. By 2025 the cars will be autonomous - ie they will drive themselves. There is already a commitment to bring 20% of all the cars the brand makes into the UK as EV's in 2020 and this is expected to grow. These cars will be affordable - starting from £18k.

    I understand it's hard to see the vision today with the infrastructure we have in place, because its hard to make a case for an EV when you don't know if the charging point will work, have to wait hours for it to charge and your range is so low. This will change going forward. I think the difficult part to work out is what will happen with people who have on road parking - perhaps this may affect the value of some homes?

    Whatever happens I think you will be surprised by the pace of change in the industry. The big players will invest their own money in infrastructure when the time is right, I don't think they will rely on, what will be by that point, outdated fixed charging points installed by startups. There will be bumps along the way but this is a massively profitable industry and the volume manufacturers will be bringing something new to push more cars onto the road to make it happen.

    I suspect that by 2040 we will look back at this and be amused that we even considered we would be driving around in fossil fuel cars in 2017.

    Oh and to the chap that thought all this would be the end of motor racing? I suspect you are completely wrong. If anything people will be more interested in going to see fossil fuel cars racing round a track if there isn't any on the road anymore. Perhaps several of them might even like to take part themselves, I think private tracks and garages will become more common.
     
  27. Alan CD

    Alan CD
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    I suspect 2040 will be a different world and some of the grandiose visions held today by the motor industry will not apply.
     
  28. True Romance

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    Last edited: Jul 28, 2017
  29. IronGiant

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    It's broken. :)

    The Golf that is... :)
     
  30. gibbsy

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    $h*t! Please tell me that's not my new GTD out for a test drive.:eek:

    Ah, it's a black Golf. Mine is grey. Only the exhaust smoke will be black. Be like driving an old Renault/Dodge fire engine again. That black Golf was only farting.;)
     

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