Negotiating new trade deals and closing the rift.

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Zzzzz

Put your crystal balls away for a few years.
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
The UK has grabbed the ball and screamed "I'm not playing anymore."

The EU response is "OK, we've got out own ball; we'll carry on playing, see you around."

We now sit mardily on the touchline calling them names for not letting us win 10-0.
...and if the rumours are correct about a virtual resumption of the talks next week, sitting on the sidelines asking 'please let us play again'. Embarrassing and entirely predictable.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
No surprise. In or out. We have huge issues.
The EU has maintained it's AAA status across the board. Doesn't look like that will change anytime soon.

I suspect many who voted to leave won't care about this at all.
They won't, mostly because we've done ok with the Bond Markets since losing our AAA status, it's barely impacted day to day living. The outlook stable is projected for the next 12-18 months.

I've long since accepted that, for these people at least, no price is too high for perceived "freedom," even when, in practice, this means our rights, standards and freedoms are diminished. Johnson and Cummings' government will get its way in this regard, and we'll all be poorer for it.
The hardcore Brexiteers (ERG types) won't accept anything less than WTO rules.

They won. We lost. That's all that matters. I recall visiting the pub the weekend after the referendum, where I heard jubilant chants of "we beat the EU," as though it was a football match.
The EU will win in the end, it has a market we simply cannot ignore. Distance matters in trade, which will become apparent if it is No Deal.

So it doesn't matter what happens to our economy, our human rights, our jobs, or anything else. It doesn't matter if Kent becomes one giant, county-wide lorry park. True believers will cling to Brexit no matter what the evidence. They will not be moved.
True believers will never change their minds, but those who voted for Brexit and expected an Economic boost will be very angry indeed when they see jobs being lost, food prices going up and so on. In the worst case scenario of No Deal, we might end up needing a bailout from the IMF. See what happened to Greece when the IMF rolled in. It's a recipe for the destruction of the Economy and of the Conservative Party itself if it doesn't get a deal with the EU.
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
The EU will win in the end, it has a market we simply cannot ignore. Distance matters in trade, which will become apparent if it is No Deal.



True believers will never change their minds, but those who voted for Brexit and expected an Economic boost will be very angry indeed when they see jobs being lost, food prices going up and so on. In the worst case scenario of No Deal, we might end up needing a bailout from the IMF. See what happened to Greece when the IMF rolled in. It's a recipe for the destruction of the Economy and of the Conservative Party itself if it doesn't get a deal with the EU.
:rolleyes:

Don't know why little Japan, South Korea and Singapore don't realise their ruined unless they join the big China.

Maybe Australia should join China too and Canada join US.
 
Last edited:

domtheone

Distinguished Member
The EU has maintained it's AAA status across the board. Doesn't look like that will change anytime soon.



They won't, mostly because we've done ok with the Bond Markets since losing our AAA status, it's barely impacted day to day living. The outlook stable is projected for the next 12-18 months.



The hardcore Brexiteers (ERG types) won't accept anything less than WTO rules.



The EU will win in the end, it has a market we simply cannot ignore. Distance matters in trade, which will become apparent if it is No Deal.



True believers will never change their minds, but those who voted for Brexit and expected an Economic boost will be very angry indeed when they see jobs being lost, food prices going up and so on. In the worst case scenario of No Deal, we might end up needing a bailout from the IMF. See what happened to Greece when the IMF rolled in. It's a recipe for the destruction of the Economy and of the Conservative Party itself if it doesn't get a deal with the EU.
The UK has been on a slippery slope for a while. That’s being part of the EU.

Time to try something different as the current status ain't working.

Hence we voted out.

Time to try something different.

Why can you not accept that.
 

mitch

Distinguished Member
The UK has been on a slippery slope for a while. That’s being part of the EU.

Time to try something different as the current status ain't working.

Hence we voted out.

Time to try something different.

Why can you not accept that.
Serious question but what’s not working?
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
The UK has been on a slippery slope for a while. That’s being part of the EU.
Which is down to Economic decisions taken by successive UK Governments. The root cause of our current woes is not the EU. It's the sovereign debt crisis caused by the Credit Crunch and the last decade of austerity that failed to balance the books. The EU has maintained it's AAA status even with Greece going pearshaped. The UK has yet to recover it's AAA status.

Time to try something different as the current status ain't working.
It boils down to the UK Economy being unbalanced with most of the wealth and decent jobs concentrated in London and the South East. Nothing much has been done to revive communities where traditional industries died in the 1980's by central government. A lot of the funding for various projects in those areas has come from the EU, you can look it up. Central Government will have to take on that funding, least things slide backwards.

What the UK needs is a federal approach to the Union, where power is distributed away from Westminster, so more decisions can be taken at a local level where people will feel like they have more of an input into what happens rather than feeling disconnected by the faff that goes in Westminster.

Hence we voted out.
People voted out for a multitude of reasons. Some because they don't like foreigners, some because they don't like the EU and some because they saw it as sticking a middle finger up at the elites in Westminster and so on.

Time to try something different.
We are trying something different. We are leaving one of the worlds largest trading blocs, losing access to good quality trade deals, to go it alone. We are pretty much a new trading nation that will have to crawl it's way to replicating the kind of trade deals we had via the EU. Which nobody can be sure of how long that will take or if it will even succeed in replicating the trade deals we had as an EU member.

Why can you not accept that.
I've accepted that Brexit is happening. What nobody here can say for certain is if Brexit is going to be success or not. The current Government are making a right hash of things, and might do more to damage the chances of Brexit succeeding, way more than so called remainers ever could. If people want to campaign to rejoin the EU from 2021 ? Then let them have at it, Brexiteers spent 40 odd years railing against the EC/EU.

Johnson says he wants a Canada style deal ? That would require going over tariffs line by line, and going further than the Canada deal due to the UK Government wanting professional qualifications being accepted in the EU, Mode 4 free movement for work, and procurement opportunities to name but a few things. Which would have required an extension, to which Johnson refused. Either he's a blithering idiot or he's wanted No Deal all along, lying through his teeth to win an election based on a slogan "Get Brexit Done".

The hard work of making Brexit a success is about to begin. It's time to leave the 2016 mindset behind, recognise that some of us see the possible dangers ahead that you can't blithely ignore by saying "We won, get over it". We are beyond that now.

Either Brexit succeeds or it fails, there is no middle ground.
 

Nick74

Well-known Member
The UK has been on a slippery slope for a while. That’s being part of the EU.
I think herein lies the problem, though I doubt you'll be persuaded by anything I have to say.

To blame the UK's situation on EU membership is to fundamentally misunderstand what caused our problems, which were almost entirely home grown. In perhaps the biggest deceit in UK political history, members of the governing party gaslighted enough people into believing someone else had harmed their lives.

That's like me punching someone in the face then shamelessly insisting "he did it." The gaslighting was so effective that Johnson won a huge majority. I have to hand it to Brexit's architects. They really did a number on the British people.

The only consoling factor is that Johnson now has to deliver on his own impossible promises. He will fail, largely because he can't "have his cake and eat it" in this situation, whatever life has taught him, but also because he's lazy and under his brief (the two go hand in hand).
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
:rolleyes:

Don't know why little Japan, South Korea and Singapore don't realise their ruined unless they join the big China.

Maybe Australia should join China too and Canada join US.
I guess you've forgotten who controls the world's oceans, has the one of the strongest militaries around and enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world several times over. I am of course speaking of the Untied States of America who are allied with all those countries and has varying trade deals with them. Oh and the last thing the world needs is for Kim Jong Un to restart the Korean war, he'd almost certainly be removed by China if they haven't told him he can start lobbing bombs at South Korea. What China likely fears above all else is a reunified Korea under a US sphere of influence.

As for Canada, other than probably selling Alaska to the US too cheaply, they have a perfectly functional Economy (it's in better shape than ours) and various deals for trade with the US in place. They've even got a trade deal with the EU that took the best part of a decade to negotiate and ratify. The US wants a trade deal with the EU eventually, the single market is too profitable to ignore.

The only real question for Canada is if they are going to become a Republic and ditch the British Monarch as it's head of state.
 

dBrowne

Active Member
Yep, £1 million was what I heard on QI the other day but obviously wrong
You weren't wrong. According to Historicalstatistics.org:
7200000 US dollar [1791-2015] in year 1867 could buy 7885997.458831019 gram gold. The price of 7885997.458831019 gram gold in year 1867 was 1073898.5911252233 UK pound [1658-2015].
So roughly $7 per £ back then.

But how the mighty have fallen. Even 10 years ago post crash it was $1.60-$1.50/£ until the referendum, after which it has consistently hovered around $1.30 and below.
I'll refrain from further comment though, as this is becoming dangerously close to being on topic.
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
I guess you've forgotten who controls the world's oceans, has the one of the strongest militaries around and enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world several times over. I am of course speaking of the Untied States of America who are allied with all those countries and has varying trade deals with them. Oh and the last thing the world needs is for Kim Jong Un to restart the Korean war, he'd almost certainly be removed by China if they haven't told him he can start lobbing bombs at South Korea. What China likely fears above all else is a reunified Korea under a US sphere of influence.

As for Canada, other than probably selling Alaska to the US too cheaply, they have a perfectly functional Economy (it's in better shape than ours) and various deals for trade with the US in place. They've even got a trade deal with the EU that took the best part of a decade to negotiate and ratify. The US wants a trade deal with the EU eventually, the single market is too profitable to ignore.

The only real question for Canada is if they are going to become a Republic and ditch the British Monarch as it's head of state.
Well I still have confidence in this nation and wont be swayed by negativity. As always, time will tell.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
I thought it was Russia that sold Alaska to the USA for £1 million
I was in a rush, and forgot about that. Though the entire Alaska sale was quite an interesting tale.

Well I still have confidence in this nation and wont be swayed by negativity. As always, time will tell.
Realism is what's required here, not positivity or negativity. We are in for a long hard slog, as most of the history of these Isles has been.
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
Realism is what's required here, not positivity or negativity. We are in for a long hard slog, as most of the history of these Isles has been.
You can live a life of negativity about something that's been decided or learn to accept the situation you find yourself in and make the most of it.

Time to move on.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
You can live a life of negativity about something that's been decided or learn to accept the situation you find yourself in and make the most of it.

Time to move on.
Yeah most of us are looking past the exit from the EU and are now looking at the prospects of the project succeeding or failing. That's pragmatism, not negativity. I moved on from 2016 a long while ago now. What you seem to be doing is sticking your head in the sand with your fingers crossed everything will be alright on the night. I've set myself a goal of attaining a degree in Biomedical Science, no matter what happens with Brexit. If I were being negative, I'd have turned into a prepper as soon as the 2016 result came in.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Well Gove embarrassed himself on Marr this morning.

Also Marr did make a mistake saying Afghan terms. Afghanistan get tariff free access to the EU under the EBA.

So the government are actually pushing for something that makes us worse off than Afghanistan and Mongolia in trading terms. And repeatedly telling everyone too.

An interesting tactic. Not sure what cards Gove thinks we hold, but looks like we've started playing beggar-my-neighbour instead.
 

barkinglama

Member
Well Gove embarrassed himself on Marr this morning.

Also Marr did make a mistake saying Afghan terms. Afghanistan get tariff free access to the EU under the EBA.

So the government are actually pushing for something that makes us worse off than Afghanistan and Mongolia in trading terms. And repeatedly telling everyone too.

An interesting tactic. Not sure what cards Gove thinks we hold, but looks like we've started playing beggar-my-neighbour instead.
EU wants access to UK fishing waters is the only card I can see
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
Well af least they can look forward to Haggis & shortbread if Scotland rejoins EU.
Given the value of the Scotland’s food and drink exports and the fact we run a consistent trade surplus i agree that we'll be in an excellent position :thumbsup:
 

diannebye

Suspended
Well af least they can look forward to Haggis & shortbread if Scotland rejoins EU.
Do not wish to cross your debate, but we do have more than enough disgusting food ok if its what you want to eat...choices here, not just Scotland but for all...
Fois gras nobody with any conscious should ever eat knowing what happens to the geese and ducks to produce this....



  • Snails for starters: Escargots. ...
  • A creepy meal: Langue de boeuf. ...
  • A few frogs' legs: Cuisses de grenouilles.
  • Raw meat: Steak Tartare. ...
  • Do you want feet on your plate?: Pieds de porc. ...
  • A smelly sausage: Andouillette. ...
  • You'll need guts to eat these: Tripes.
 

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