More in work, less in work.

Discussion in 'Politics & The Economy' started by pragmatic, Feb 19, 2014.

  1. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    While we've had a good near 200,000 entra in work, the jobless rate dropped by 0.1.

    Answers on a postcard.
     
  2. Squiffy

    Squiffy
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    Very simple.

    The 7.1% figure was based on the monthly unemployment rate.

    The 7.2% figure is the quarterly unemployment rate. At the start of the quarter unemployment was around 7.4% IIRC, and at the end at 7.1%. The average for the quarter being 7.2%.
     
  3. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    No one in the media seemed to be able to explain it, BBC called it a statistical quirk even, on the news at 10.

    My initial thought, was the population growing (unemployed) faster than people were being employed.
     
  4. vinny41

    vinny41
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  5. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    None of that would effect these figures I the way seen, we've seen the numbers in work increase as well as the percentage unemployed increase, from your links we should see the latter decrease also.

    Why people are messing with monthly vs quarterly stats seems odd, even amateurish.
     
  6. karkus30

    karkus30
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    I don't know how the stats are created but what about
    A. Number of people retiring
    B. Number of people now disappearing from the list due to eligibility - I'm not counted as unemployed
    C. Number on work creation schemes of one sort or another.
     
  7. pragmatic

    pragmatic
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    So the reverse of the other stuff, people coming off schemes who where never counted as employed nor une unemployed.

    So far increase in percentage of unemployed even though 200k more are employed than last month,
    Statistical confusion (apples and oranges, months and quarters)
    Job schemes and government intervention
    People coming off job schemes/government intervention
    Immigration from EU/returning brits, being unemployed.
     
  8. karkus30

    karkus30
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    Pretty much its self serving. Just like any numbers system in which there is a reward/punishment for not hitting targets then these are selectively chosen and so is the timing. If you want convince someone to lend you money then the best time to show then your bank account is before all the money is paid out. Its not that the figures are wrong-or even massaged-they are just measures in the best possible place in which departments are also doing their best to hit unemployment reduction targets.

    We see saw the same thing under labour when GDP figures were used to make public spending look small.

    We need to look beyond these simple beliefs if we want meaningful measurements. There is a boom in play on top of a bubble that was not allowed to deflate. Living standards have fallen-particularly for middle income earners. Wages have fallen, prices have risen. I would hazard a guess that we have more redundant employees moving into lower paid/skilled work. In effect we are moving towards a third world economy. More or less a command economy in which the banks/BoE now govern the country and control all the important businesses.
     
  9. tapzilla2k

    tapzilla2k
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    The employment figures are being manipulated like they always have been. If you added on the total number of adults out of work due to disability, mental health problems etc then the unemployment rate would be a lot higher. I don't put much credence in these stats, as they are shaky to begin with.
    I'm not going into the mess that is Iain Duncan Smiths Benefit reforms, apparently it's cost £200,000+ to get a very low number of people enrolled on Universal Credit. Usual thing IT not fit for purpose, Civil Servants unable to deliver complex reforms due to Politicians rushing them through Parliament without proper debates and amendments before passing into law and then having very tight time scales for political reasons.

    People look for trends, looking at the monthly vs quarterly stats help in that. By people I mean independent experts who are impartial. Not us lot on an internet forum.
     

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