Keeping up with the latest Brexit News

Which option would you prefer?

  • Leave with no deal

    Votes: 112 75.7%
  • Leave with the WA without the backstop

    Votes: 36 24.3%

  • Total voters
    148
  • This poll will close: .

Liquid101

Distinguished Member
I know ;)

Why do you want people to come here if they can't work & contribute?

Surely you don't really want a mass of unskilled/un-needed people to just arrive, sign on and live off UK tax payer benefits?

I can't imagine the Polish or Lithuanian's would be happy with a couple million British turning up demanding homes & benefits without ability to work or support themselves. Luckily for them not many want to, if any.
Wait - you know how freedom of movement works, right?
 

psikey

Well-known Member
Wait - you know how freedom of movement works, right?
I know how freedom of movement DOESN'T work and shouldn't have been enabled until:

Each country of origin covers any social costs of their citizens during the next 50 years of the EU until standardised benefits, tax, min wage etc across all EU nations eliminates the "pull" factors.
 

Liquid101

Distinguished Member
We all do don't we? It's been gone over enough times on here.
Clearly not in much detail

I know how freedom of movement DOESN'T work and shouldn't have been enabled until:

Each country of origin covers any social costs of their citizens during the next 50 years of the EU until standardised benefits, tax, min wage etc across all EU nations eliminates the "pull" factors.
You can’t just rock up to the UK and start claiming benefits 😂
 

IronGiant

Moderator
Remainers did not exist before the referendum, it’s a made up word with no meaning to me. A leaver exists, a remaine doesn’t. Cause we never asked for this.
It's a word now:

Remaine is too


So does Cause. Although you used it incorrectly.

Please don't do Grammar police.
 

sebbykin

Distinguished Member
Has the EU ever completed a trade deal in 2 years?
Let's hope all trade with the EU doesn't stop on the 1st November while we wait for a deal.
 

Liquid101

Distinguished Member
Let's hope all trade with the EU doesn't stop on the 1st November while we wait for a deal.
It won’t stop in the event of a no deal - it’ll just be exposed to tariffs and customs checks at the border.

It’ll be painful - but according to Rees Mog we’ll get over it.

Not that he has much to worry about. He’ll be too busy counting all the money his funds will make out of the chaos.
 

Squiffy

Distinguished Member
Do you honestly think we will get a favourable trade deal without a customs union, or Freedom of movement or some other thing that you will call BRINO?
Yes. Why wouldn't we?

Did Japan, South Korea or Canada have to sign up to any of those things? Are they more important to EU trade than we are?
Dominic Cummings briefed MPs with a statement to that effect. That’s it would be no deal if the EU didn’t accept Johnson’s deal.

And as with everything Cummings, it turned out to be BS.
The only BS is how you continue to misrepresent things.

The UK government hopes to begin a period of intense negotiations with the aim of reaching a final agreement at an EU summit on 17 October.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told BBC Breakfast that the government's plan set out to the EU were "serious proposals" and were recognised by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier as such.

He said both sides "recognise that it is better to have a deal" and negotiations "will have to be intensively done in the next few days".


I thought it was take it or leave it? Sounds to me like it was a set of proposals to negotiate on. Which is exactly what they are going to do.
 

GadgetObsessed

Well-known Member
Funnily enough I was thinking of the same movie but didn't want to mention it so it was taken the wrong way.
Sorry - completely not getting the Carousel reference?
 

GadgetObsessed

Well-known Member
The problem with that idea is quite simple, while the Treasury has raised billions through tax/vat on tobacco products there is no way to know how much of that (if any) has been pumped into the NHS to specifically treat smoking related diseases. If I had my way I'd ban smoking entirely, but I know that's an extreme solution that wouldn't work. I'd fine parents who smoke in front of their children in homes etc. I say that as somebody whose living with the consequences of passive smoking.

But hey ho, No Deal Brexit might make smoking unaffordable. So bright sides and all that.
There have been lots of studies about healthcare costs by disease, lifestyle (e.g. smoking) and age - so there is an understanding of how much the NHS spends on smokers. Though for most the relevant point is how much more or less smokers cost than non-smokers.

This is quite an interesting read about the net cost to health and welfare costs.

This research looked at Finland. Smokers lifetime healthcare costs were lower than non-smokers by 4,700 Euros. A more significant saving for the government finances was smokers receiving a pension for 7.3 years less than non-smokers - which saved the Finnish pension system over 100,000 Euros.

This article includes some figures on other smoking related costs that are far harder to estimate e.g. someone has estimated that smokers fag breaks cost £2.9 billion in lost productivity - although that assumes that smokers take all the same breaks as regular workers plus fag breaks - which may not be true.

I would happily ban smoking completely but I understand that would involve a long term significant cost for the NHS and Pensions.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
Sorry - completely not getting the Carousel reference?
Logan's Run (1976)

After aborted attempts to adapt the novel, story changes were made including raising the age of "last day" from 21 to 30 and introducing the idea of "Carrousel" [sic] for eliminating 30-year-olds.
 
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GadgetObsessed

Well-known Member
If you don't disagree that we have a parliamentary democracy then you are not wrong.
Removing the double negatives this becomes:
If you agree that we have a parliamentary democracy then you are correct.
Is that what you meant?
 

Liquid101

Distinguished Member
Yes. Why wouldn't we?
I could just do the classic Squiffy reply and say, Why would we?

I'm sure Geography has quite a lot to do with it. There is the small matter of no physical borders to think about.

Why not look at the deals that Norway and Switzerland have with the EU. They are probably much better indicators of what we might expect from a free trade deal with the EU.

Such a shame we won't be reaping the benefits o the Japanese deal. It could take years to create our own with Japan.
 

klaxhu

Well-known Member
I could just do the classic Squiffy reply and say, Why would we?

I'm sure Geography has quite a lot to do with it. There is the small matter of no physical borders to think about.

Why not look at the deals that Norway and Switzerland have with the EU. They are probably much better indicators of what we might expect from a free trade deal with the EU.

Such a shame we won't be reaping the benefits o the Japanese deal. It could take years to create our own with Japan.
Quite right. Great thread on why today’s potential miracle deal doesn’t matter either way.

 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
More project fear from Nissan;

Nissan Europe 'unsustainable' in no-deal Brexit

Speaking to the BBC, Mr de Ficchy said: "We do not know still what a no-deal means.

"There are many alternatives, and today there is a lot of uncertainty.

"The only message I can [give] is that if a no-deal will be associated with the application of 10% duties under the WTO rules, that will create an enormous problem for the overall European activities of Nissan Europe.

"If we will have to sustain 10% export duties on the vehicles that we export from UK to EU, knowing that those vehicles represent 70% of total production, the overall business model won't be sustainable.

"It's not a question of Sunderland, it's a question of the overall economic sustainability of our business [in Europe]."

He said the business was asking for tariffs not be imposed if there is a no-deal Brexit.

"We are asking not to have tariffs being applied in a no-deal scenario because otherwise the tariffs won't be sustainable for us," he said.
 

springtide

Well-known Member
More project fear from Nissan;

Nissan Europe 'unsustainable' in no-deal Brexit

Speaking to the BBC, Mr de Ficchy said: "We do not know still what a no-deal means.

"There are many alternatives, and today there is a lot of uncertainty.

"The only message I can [give] is that if a no-deal will be associated with the application of 10% duties under the WTO rules, that will create an enormous problem for the overall European activities of Nissan Europe.

"If we will have to sustain 10% export duties on the vehicles that we export from UK to EU, knowing that those vehicles represent 70% of total production, the overall business model won't be sustainable.

"It's not a question of Sunderland, it's a question of the overall economic sustainability of our business [in Europe]."

He said the business was asking for tariffs not be imposed if there is a no-deal Brexit.

"We are asking not to have tariffs being applied in a no-deal scenario because otherwise the tariffs won't be sustainable for us," he said.
If we leave with no deal, some people here will still claim it's unrelated. The fact is, car manufacturing within the UK is as good as dead on a no deal Brexit.

I'm sure some of the Brexiteers who voted out and work in such positions will understand this and see it for the greater good I guess. I'm lucky I am not such a person although the IT contracting slowdown has directly impacted me.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Theo P. wants a 2nd Ref now :eek:

A successful businessman claims to know more now than he did before.

Not such a numpty after all :D
 

gavinhanly

Well-known Member
I read the Nissan statement as a warning to both the UK and the EU to get their shirt together. The wording seemed to be very specifically aimed at Europe as a whole.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
I read the Nissan statement as a warning to both the UK and the EU to get their shirt together. The wording seemed to be very specifically aimed at Europe as a whole.
i’d agree that it’s definitely a warning, although I saw it as more so aimed at Johnson to consider tariffs on the car industry if we leave without agreements in place. As Nissan export 70% of the cars made in the UK, they’ve got a point if the Government end up with 10% tariffs.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
i’d agree that it’s definitely a warning, although I saw it as more so aimed at Johnson to consider tariffs on the car industry if we leave without agreements in place. As Nissan export 70% of the cars made in the UK, they’ve got a point if the Government end up with 10% tariffs.
Even Brewer on QT said she'd be happy to take an extension in order for a GE. And then she babbled a bit about seeing the legal wording etc. of the proposal.

But my point anyway is that No Deal just needs to be avoided full stop, and if there's a sniff of a "pathway" then it should be explored, and not be subject to failure just because of a deadline.

The stakes are too high.
 
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Squiffy

Distinguished Member
I'm sure Geography has quite a lot to do with it. There is the small matter of no physical borders to think about.

Why not look at the deals that Norway and Switzerland have with the EU. They are probably much better indicators of what we might expect from a free trade deal with the EU.
Switzerland isn't in the customs union. Which is why they managed to sign a pretty good deal with China.

Such a shame we won't be reaping the benefits o the Japanese deal. It could take years to create our own with Japan.
The only "benefit" we've seen so far is the upcoming closure of Honda in Swindon.
 

Squiffy

Distinguished Member
Fair enough - they have Freedom of movement though - oh, and they contribute to the EU budget.
And the main parties agree that freedom of movement is out. As well as labour and the Tories agreeing we should leave the single market.

That's is no mandate to stay in the single market.
 

Liquid101

Distinguished Member
And the main parties agree that freedom of movement is out. As well as labour and the Tories agreeing we should leave the single market.

That's is no mandate to stay in the single market.

And that’s my point.

When it comes to actually negotiating a trade deal during the transition period, the problems we’ve seen so far will just get replayed over and over again.

If we get a withdrawal agreement, this will probably mean we will spend years arguing the toss over the same issues.

If we leave with no deal, we’ll probably never get a free trade deal with our biggest market - potentially causing huge damage to our economy.

There isn’t going to be a winner here.

Which is why I think we need to accept there needs to be some serious compromises on our part. Like staying in the customs union. It won’t stop us preparing those trade deals with the rest of the world - it’ll just stop us entering them until we’re ready.
 

kav

Distinguished Member
I wonder how many Remainers are disappointed with this if their honest?
We are all Leavers on this blessed day.

Being serious, I've long held the position that a compromise that doesn't leave anyone particularly happy but allows some kind of Brexit to take place is the only route this thing will go. The UK will need to make concessions, they simply aren't going to be able to get everything they want, because that's not how the world works.
 

Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
Why don't posters understand the process has been scuppered because very few elite, institutions actually want to leave. The EU don't want the UK to leave and neither do parliament. That's why the UK hasn't left, nothing to do the deal being deficient. The reality is there are no deals or concessions to be had, the premise is complete fiction.
 

klaxhu

Well-known Member
Why don't posters understand the process has been scuppered because very few elite, institutions actually want to leave. The EU don't want the UK to leave and neither do parliament. That's why the UK hasn't left, nothing to do the deal being deficient. The reality is there are no deals or concessions to be had, the premise is complete fiction.
Very sensible observation. You are right, I think: I haven't seen that the industry wants us to actually leave, the farmers definitely don't, the services industry and definitely the city doesn't. So, again, who actually want us to leave?

Ok, ok, might sound like a long-shot. But how about if all the above just don't want to leave without a deal?

Well, either way, I am prepared for it and here is why. Question is, are you?


"The possibility of a no-deal Brexit is getting more real by the day. The anxiety is palpable. People are stocking up on essentials: canned goods, rice, pasta, medicines and toilet paper. There may or may not be a mess to come on November 1, so better safe than sorry. But how best to prepare? Stockpiling is good, but it’s not a sustainable long-term solution. A no-deal Brexit calls for real strategies, a new mode of thinking. As a Pole living in London, I have some suggestions. If Brexit was designed to keep eastern Europeans at bay, its biggest irony is that Britain’s Poles are best placed to deal with it. Hardened by growing up behind the Iron Curtain, we have plenty of handy life hacks. Communism may be long gone, our skills may be somewhat rusty, but we haven’t forgotten the empty shelves in shops, the long queues, the lack of toilet paper and the joy when our parents brought home oranges for Christmas. So, here are some useful tips. Under communism, toilet paper was a luxury product — as perhaps it will be again. Things were different back then, there were none of the colourful, velvety brands adorned with puppies and butterflies. It was rough and recycled; we called it sandpaper. I almost preferred the alternative, which was to use newspapers; somehow, we never ran out of newsprint. The key is to roll and rub the newspaper in your hands, until it is soft enough to do the job. Try it. Depending on the paper at hand, it might be a more satisfactory process than you think. As to canned goods — there’s certainly no harm in getting some in, but you’ll eventually need fresh food as well. I would recommend finding a reliable source of potatoes, onions and cabbage. They all last a while and are full of vitamins — great for preventing scurvy, which, as it turns out, has been on the rise in the UK among millennials, who apparently eat badly. A diet rich in cabbage has saved many a sailor. In eastern Europe, we have plenty of mouth-watering cabbage-based recipes. The prospect of medicine shortages might seem somewhat worrying, but ultimately you can cure most things with garlic and chamomile. For a sore throat, most Poles remember making onion syrup. You just cut the onion into little cubes, add loads of sugar and wait until it dissolves. Warm beer mixed with an egg yolk can heal a good deal, too. But chamomile is the most useful cure and is available in most meadows. It eases insomnia, reduces anxiety, strengthens the immune system, soothes eye infections and lowers blood sugar. For more information, just ask at your nearest Polish shop, assuming it is still open. Everyone is worried about truck queues at the border. But if produce becomes scarce, there will be queues everywhere. I remember my family queueing in the middle of the night to buy milk in the morning, just in case there was a delivery. Often there wasn’t. It was like waiting for Godot. Brits take pride in their queueing prowess, but in a no-deal scenario they will need to up their game. You need to be shrewd: see every queue as an opportunity. If you spot one, join it immediately, even if you don’t know what it’s for. If in doubt ask others. Strike up a conversation — they won’t know what’s going on either, but you will soon discover that queues are where you make friends, the new centre of social life. You’ll find yourself queueing outside, rain or shine. It won’t be that different from drinking outside a pub — except without the prosecco or Belgian beer. Entrepreneurial migrants will soon enough seize the opportunity to sell you alcohol while you wait. If you get tired, you can trade your space in the queue for a pint. This is just a taste of what’s possible. Your eastern European neighbours are bursting with great ideas. So, don’t be shy, talk to your Polish friends. We’re here to help."
 
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