It'll be interesting to see what 'budget' means from these Chinese boys.
If it's sub-£100 within the year then BD have had it, unless they do something similar.
If it's sub-£200, then It'll be a very good move for HD-DVD, but not an immediate killer blow.
If it's £300 per player, then that'll get lots of people on-board who are usually early adopters, but who don't want to be caught out by the format wars, but will just give HD-DVD an advantage.
Looking at Amazon in the US we have 4 HD-DVD players.
Tosh HD-A1 $500 reduced to $400
Tosh HD-A2 $700 reduced to $409
Tosh HD-XA1 $1,180 reduced to $460 (mistake in original price?)
RCA HDV5000 $500 (not yet released) presumably going to go at c.$400
For Bl;u-Ray we have:
Sammy $900 reduced to $590
Sony $1,000 - no reduction
Panny $1,300 - no reduction
It depends on how much money you can gamble, or rather how much you don't think will be a waste if your format 'loses'. But the lower it comes, the closer that gets for Joe Public.
But at sub-£100, the public will buy 'em as normal DVD players, forget about high definition. Imagine it. You've just bought a new LCD/Plasma - it's HD-Ready. You go to Tesco to look for a £50 player for little Amy's bedroom. You see a new DVD player for £99.99, that plays these new discs that'll make your telly look ace.
Do you move your SD DVD player upstairs, and spend £99.99? I think a lot of people will.
Steve W