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is/was DVD the shortest lived format ever...?

Discussion in 'Movie Forum' started by Family Guy, Feb 8, 2005.

  1. Family Guy

    Family Guy
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    With the advent of Blu Ray and HD-DVD just around the corner, it would appear (if you read the av tabloids) that the writing is on the wall for our current favourite format...

    Now, i can remember my very first DVD player. A Toshiba, R1 only, purchased from Picture Paradise in Lincoln, along with a handful of discs. I still had a pile of laserdiscs a mile high and 2 seperate players didn't seem logical. So as soon as it was available, I "upgraded" to a Pioneer 909 combi player. Soon after, laserdiscs became hard to come by, and I could see that their value was deopping rapidly...so I thought I would cut my losses and sell out. So I did.

    The remarkable thing is all this has happened in the last 7 years!! DVD was born, it's lived and, in the enthuasists eyes, it's on it's last legs.
    Just look how long it's lasted compared to the other major video formats...VHS lasted at least 25 years before it was taken over by DVD. laserdisc was never a major consumer item, and less than 5 million units were ever sold worldwide...but to us, the enthuasist, it was the dogs danglie bits.

    I can foresee the lifespan of Blu Ray and HD DVD being even shorter than that of DVD...we crave hi def. We're about to get it...(Though 99.9% of our displays won't display it properly...). What's next...? Does it get any better than hi def?

    There will, however, be a point where Joe Public (the NON enthuasist) gets fed up and stops buying altogether...

    Anybody care to comment...?
     
  2. outsider67

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    i think you are probably on the right tracks, one day dvds will be old hat and better things will take their place. i was up in the loft last week sorting out all my old videos to take to the tip (i was getting nagged) . i collected nearly all the disney videos that were released trying to have the whole collection but just stopped buying them when i got my first dvd player. i left the disney ones in the loft for sentimental reasons probably but threw the rest away. i was thinking at the time how much money i had spent on videos only not to watch them any more. i think the point is i am obviously a lot happier with the pic and sound quality of dvds compared to vhs and would like to think i will keep hold of my dvds for a few more years yet. the other thong is it is nice to look at your shelf/cabinet and be able to see exactly what you have got and where they are, if one day a new format is mainstream thet is a lot smaller ( ie cd down to minidisc) it would not have the same "show off " factor as a large collection of dvds on display
     
  3. edinburgh160

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    I feel that DVD has a long way to go yet. Look at it this way, sales of titles are through the roof - you just need to look in Virgin / HMV and the likes with their 3 for £20 (and such like) offers, and everybody scrabbling about to buy. they are affordable for alot of people, and as such are collectable in a way that VHS wasn't. In addition you can chuck in a DVD player for £20 when your doing your shopping, so the format is cheap.
    For enthusiasts, we all want the better format, but we are in such a minority in the bigger picture (we buy the better screens, players etc), but your Joe Bloggs doesn't. It isn't cheap or a requirement for alot of people.
    Therefore IMHO people are buying alot more titles, building up collections they perhaps did not have before (even if it is about 20 discs or so - they buy instead of renting cause its so affordable), and will be alot more reluctant to move onto a new format so easily. It's a perfect format for the majority - good pictures, no rewinding, easy storing - theres no need for anything else.
    Hi-Def - they will need a new TV (nae- Plasma) - £2k+, a new player, replace all those discs.
    I think that the public are content with this format for the forseeable future.

    Of course, technology continues to progress at an alarming rate, and thumbs up to it. The nature of the beast is that studios will make and demand new formats as they will make more and more money from their back catalogues.

    The only way forward in my eyes, is to release these new formats compatable with DVD (as in the video dvd combis they have now). Break people in to it, then they will move onto the bigger and better plasmas.

    In my view the general public will be well satisfied with the present format for a good 10-15 years, whilst your enthusiasts will lap it up sooner.

    Personally, I don't need or wish for a better picture at the moment, and I would not buy anything until a good few years into production, prices were down and formats were settled and a good catalogue was available worthy of any outlay.

    Again IMHO. :beer:
     
  4. Family Guy

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    But the reason DVD is so succesful is because Joe Public snapped it up at record rates...now they've had a taste of how good things can get, I wouldn't be supprised to see either Blu Ray or HD-DVD take off in the same way. Maybe DVD came a little to early...could probably have been skipped and we could have gone straight to HD formats instead.

    I think where the public will get confused is where you see thing like High Definition Transfer on disc boxes. WE know that the transfer on the disc id NOT High defeintion, and is no better in definition quality than the disc next to it...it may be encoded at a slightly higher bit rate, but hi def it certainly ain't. And no amount of passing through an Iscan HD into a 1024x768 plasma is gonna make it hi def...end of ramble.
     
  5. Lex

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    I agree with edinburgh160, DVD is going absolutely nowhere...

    The bottom line is that 'the public' are perfectly happy with DVD and do not require (or would even notice the difference between) an upgrade. Before CD came along there was a need/market for it as people were unhappy with vinyl/tape, likewise before DVD came along there was a need for it as people were unhappy with VHS/LD, but as it stands at the moment people are perfectly happy with DVD. There is absolutely no market for Blu Ray and HD-DVD (other than the specialist) at all as far as I can see, I think it is likely that they will just become the new laserdiscs, at least for now...

    Another example is the attempt to supercede the CD which has pretty much failed as again 'the public' do not see the need for it, they are perfectly happy with CD...

    Just my opinion :)
     
  6. Family Guy

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    And a perfectly good opinion it is too...however, I think it's wrong to say that LD was a competitor to VHS. In the mainstream, VHS didn't have a competitor until DVD came along.

    I do think you are right about Blu Ray/HD-DVD though. IMO, I think it shows how fast technology is moving these days in the fact that a "better" format has come along after such a short time, whereas it took DVD a quarter of a century to kill VHS...
     
  7. Lex

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    Yeah I agree, frightening really, let's hope it doesn't get as bad as the PC market where your product is obselete before you get it out of the box!

    Another factor of course is the software and the fact that people seem to be investing so heavily in DVDs, I know I would be reluctant to go out and re-purchase all the movies I have bought over the last five years or so... unless my numbers come up soon ;)
     
  8. thirst

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    I agree with Edinburgh160, AV enthusiasts and magazines may well be writing off the humble DVD but I reckon there's a decade or more left in the format. You only need to look at Play .com 's all-time top 100 DVD list to see that the diehard trilogy, not the special editions but the bog standard versions have sold like hot cakes! The sort of person who would choose that version isn't going to be rushed into Hi Def.

    The majority of consumers buying DVDs don't care about highest quality sound or picture, they just want the cheapest copy . I wouldn't mind betting that the most people in the UK buying DVDs happily watch either on their PC, or just through a television with no extra speakers, or through a hi-fi system. These people aren't just going to upgrade on a whim because there's a better version available.

    Until Hi definition TV's hit rock bottom prices that are affordable to all the next generation will be like laser discs, admittedly it could catch on but not at the rate DVD has.

    If you ask me the humble DVD still has room to improve and no doubt will do so at least for the foreseeable future DVD WILL STAY THE KING.


    I can't remember where I was reading but apparently HD- DVD discs won't be priced all that much more than DVDs!
     
  9. Bristol Pete

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    I think that early adopters will embrace the new formats but average joe will continue to buy DVD for a long time yet. How many people took convincing that DVD was/is better than VHS !

    Cap :)
     
  10. Steve T

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    I'm sure I'll be dabbling in whichever format wins the new format war, but the fact that there is a format war won't help widespread adoption of the newer technologies. I will be stepping back and waiting a while to see what happens and I class myself as an enthusiast. I think the introduction of the new kit will wash over most consumers until manufacturers stop making tradtional DVD players, which I think will be many years from now.

    Then, there is the cost of the software. Imagine the initial premium for buying the disks. I remember regularly paying £20+ for R1 and the few R2 titles that was around when DVD was new to the UK.

    If HMV are knocking out the two disk Van Helsing :( for £6.99 on DVD or £23.99 on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, which would your average impulse buyer pick up?
     
  11. Gary D

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    i think DVD has years left in it yet. there may be new formats but will they be accepted by the great unwashed? i doubt it. HD-DVD and BR maybe just round the corner for some of us but not for all.

    i think it will be the first time that dont buy a new format in its first month of release (i'm known in my family for having the new stuff first) i've been stung before, buying things first only for the price to drop like a stone within a year.

    i will have to buy a new telly and a new player which wont be cheap so i'll leave it for a while yet.



    gary
     
  12. NoEntry2k

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    Am i correct in assuming that traditional DVDs will still play in the next wave of blu ray and HD DVD players but obviosly not at the same quality as the new discs. Kind of like how you can play PS one games on the PS2.
     
  13. Dutch

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    Yes, both HD DVD and Blu-ray players are compatible with normal DVDs.

    Steve
     
  14. thirst

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    Gary, although not a necessity you will need to buy a new receiver for the new Dolby Digital/DTS sound formats as well as the player/TV. Even more expense!
     
  15. Gary D

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    REALLY!!! i didn't know that - so i'll have to junk my entire system for the new format? fantastic! :rolleyes:

    Will i be able to keep my speakers or are they defunkt as well? what about my ears and eyes will they need to be upgraded - what about the power into my house will i need my own turbine or is the national grid still ok?



    Gary
     
  16. BrianC

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    Isn't that going to be dependant on the player and amp rather than the format? I'd assume that the better spec'd players would have analog 5.1 outputs similar to some DVD players now that. So it would be just a case of hooking the analog outputs to your amp, assuming it has them of course.

    DVD still has a lot of time left, especially in Europe, but it will be replaced quicker in the US and Japan where HDTV actually has a foot hold already.

    Does it really matter when the players will be backwards compatible? Its not like the jump from laserdisk/vhs to dvd.
     
  17. Family Guy

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    I believe that's wrong mate as Dolby Digital & DTS are just that...they are already available in different bit rates - your amp should pick them up automatically...however, there are new codecs just around the corner - DD+ and DTS++ - our current amps will PROBABLY not decode these...
    Again, not entirely true I'm afraid...HD-DVD WILL be, it's part of the format. Blu Ray however dosen't have to be. It's going to be up to the individual manufacturer whether or not they make their kit backwards compatible...IMHO, thy'd be stupid not to.
     
  18. Ed Selley

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    I can't shake the feeling in the back of my head that while a complete replacement is inevitable this could as easily be another set of DVD-A and SACD releases. If the Licensing is too expensive and releasing timetable too small (which with a split format it probably will be) I can see another generation of DVD player (at least) before I get too bothered about a change.

    I'm off to listen to some records.
     
  19. thirst

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    That is what I meant by "new Dolby Digital and DTS sound formats", I was referring to DD+ and DTS +. I just couldn't remember what they were called. From what I have gathered you will still be able to play regular Dolby Digital and DTS through your current amplifier receivers which is why I said it isn't a necessity to upgrade that as well. Although since you going to go to that much expense upgrading kit I would've thought most people would upgrade their receivers for the latest sound formats aswell.
     
  20. Speakerbox

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    Cheers,

    You made a dull day more amusing!! I too find this conmpletely baffling...apparently boggo flat-screens don't display hi-def too well, although they can...so you need a plasma or LCD, the highest def flatties I have seen are about 1,275 x 768 pixels, full hi-def is about 1,900 x 1080, so how can any current screen display it in all it's glory??? and this is before you've sorted out your DVI/HDMI connection. Then you need a new DVD player, and presumably my humble 40GB PVR will only be able to record corry without being full...

    In short, I think HD DVD & Blu-Ray will take off like...SACD

    :lesson:
     
  21. Bristol Pete

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    I was thinking that maybe people will say -

    'you know what, I am happy with my set up and collection, nah, I will leave it'

    As others have said, it could turn into a white elephant :lesson:

    Do not under estimate the power of DVD :)

    Cap.
     
  22. NoEntry2k

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    So at least we won't be forced to but our complete collections again.
     
  23. Family Guy

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    So - what we gonna go for...? Personally, I'm thinking of going the HD-DVD route. So far, it has the most studios signed up to it and is GUARANTEED to be backwards compatible with DVD. As I said earlier, Blu Ray is manufacturer dependant on whether or not it will be...
     
  24. edinburgh160

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    thats the key.
    I wont be chucking away 200+ DVD's (like I had to do with video) - I'd just buy a few players for the future. It may have a chance if we can play existing collections on DVD's. What definitely needs to happen is for ONE format to come out. If there is 2 different formats not compatible with each other it will shoot itself in the head.
    LASERDISC couldn't compete (which was a shame), look at VHS and Betamax.
    Nobody in their right mind is going to buy into a new format only to see it go the way of the Betamax.
    I believe that different studios back different formats, so for instance if you get Blueray you may never see (e.g. an MGM film - you would have to get the other format). That is not going to wash with anybody.
    It needs to be a single format (ala DVD) and be backwards compatible with DVD titles. Then - it may have a chance.
     
  25. JSW

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    I'm not going to be convinced till Aldi are selling HD-DVD for £29.99 :laugh:
     
  26. Pooon

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    :offtopic:
    Well, if i worked in HMV i'd instruct the customer to do something more productive with their money like perhaps throw it in the bin, flush it down the toilet or even but several copies of the Big Issue so the seller can get his can of Special Brew that day.


    Normal service will now resume.
     
  27. Rob20

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    The way I see it, the dvd format will be around til 2015 at the very least, probably 2020. Dvd has been out for 7 years now in the UK, and still there are people who do not have one. Few people have bought dvd recorders, and therefore a big proportion of people still use video players to record tv. There'll be no need to through away your dvd collection as you did with tape because new machines will play dvds. Either that or do what I did with tape and only replace films you when they can be bought cheap. I only replaced tapes in my collection when they could be bought for £10 or less, or in special offers, (3 for £20 etc).

    I can't see HD-DVD/Blu-Ray taking off anywhere near as quickly as dvd for the simple fact that so few tvs out there are capable of displaying a hi-def picture, (I don't count tvs with less than 720p that scale to 480p say). Whereas practically the whole market had the ability to display dvd pictures, (only a scart was needed), perhaps 10% or less will be able to display high-def pictures. There are many other factors that have been discussed on AV at legnth that will potentially slow uptake.
     
  28. Kevo

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    Why does there have to be only one format (standard/HD)?

    Now that 'video/tv' has entered the 'digital age' can there not be markets for DVD/DTV and high-def DVD/TV ?

    If it wants to be like the 'computer market' and release new technologies ever year or so then it''s going to have to accept that not everyone can afford to (or even wants to) keep up. Just like there are those who want the latest 3D video card and top notch CPUS there are a LOT more people who are more than content with their old Pentiun 2s and G-Force 2 video cards.

    Judging by some previous replies there are even a lot of AV enthusiats who are content with DVD and DTV, (me included) I'm another, which makes an already miniscule portion of the general public even more miniscule!
     
  29. Gary D

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    if the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray thing is going turn people like us off - then it really is in trouble. I'm certainly not going to junk a 5 Grand System just so i can be the latest - as i've already said i'm not going to get stung again! :laugh:



    Gary
     
  30. lurker75

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    Something I was thinking about the other night that nobody knows the answer to at the moment is what the region protection is like on either format. For all we know the region protection could be unbreakable? This would put a serious Downer on both formats if you could only play the region of your player!
     

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