Is the entire western world on the verge of being MF Global'd?

My cost of living has increased by 10%, well, over 10%, asking others the same question, they will tell me a similar figure. When the papers conduct their own independent studies, lo and behold, they find the same thing.

Have you not noticed how the rise has been so dramatic, that prices are staying the same while foods are getting smaller? Look at the size of a chocolate bar and then look at the price, this is also masking the real price jumps.

What has your cost of living increased by?

If you buy exactly the same goods as you would have done a year ago, then it is quite likely that your experienced inflation is 10% or more.

However, by shopping carefully and making changes to your way of live, you can easily mitigate those cost increases.
:smashin:
Sidicks
 
I ate cheaply to begin with, what is your experienced inflation? taking into account petrol, utilities, food etc?
 
I ate cheaply to begin with, what is your experienced inflation? taking into account petrol, utilities, food etc?

What I actually experience, and what I could experience if I wanted to change my eating habits etc are two different things.

I am sure that my own inflation could easily be less than 10%
:smashin:
Sidicks
 
Thing is people do not have the memory of goldfish, they remeber paying significantly less for things only a few years ago.
March 2011 "since February 2007, the price of a loaf of bread has risen by 30%. Gas and electricity are up 23%"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/23/inflation-wrong-type

I think everyone thinks inflation is higher than the government figure. Because when people look at the price of things they buy every week like food and fuel or every month like utility bills or rent if they are in rented accommodation have gone up more than the headline figure. While income has failed to keep pace with inflation so they have less money left in their pocket after each weekly shop, etc...

But the headline figure is lower because the basket of goods includes things like electrical goods that have gone down in price, that are bought infrequently.

CPI inflation also uses a geometric mean for the price of goods so a cheap version of the good drives the average down more than using standard arithmetic mean. CPI as it were assumes people shop around and switch to cheap alternative goods.
Deciding to switch to a cheaper alternative of a good because of price makes people think inflation is a problem, rather than the availability of a cheaper alternative good making them think inflation is not a problem

Current government official year on year inflation September 2011 5.2% CPI
Some claiming inflation is much higher, I can see why they have little faith in official figure

11.2% Total inflation July 2007 to July 2011 incorrectly using CPI from 2010 and RPI before
23.6% Total inflation July 2007 to July 2011 RPI single pensioner household.

CPI the governments prefered inflation measure from 2010.
14.4% Total Inflation July 2007 to July 2010
4.4% July 2011, 3.1% July 2010, (1.8% July 2009) (4.4% July 2008)

RPI the governments previous prefered inflation measure before 2010
13.6% Total Inflation July 2007 to July 2011
(5% July 2011) (4.7% July 2010) 0.6% July 2009, 2.7% July 2008

RPI two person pensioner households
23.4% Total Inflation July 2007 to July 2011
7% July 2011, 4.9% July 2010, 1.9% July 2009, 7.9% July 2008

RPI one person pensioner household
23.6% Total Inflation July 2007 to July 2011
6.8% July 2011, 4.2% July 2010, 2.2% July 2009, 8.7% July 2008
 
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Sidicks, depending on salary, you could say it doesn't matter that inflation has risen 20%, my inflation has fallen by 5%. The reality is, for me included, that when you are less than the average salary, i.e. less than 25k, then you don't have the room for manoeuvrings. Also let me just clarify, I think in the next year there will be many mutual funds, futures accounts funds just disappear. I think this will lead to a full on panic mode, causing runs on the banks, banks will demand more liquidity and they will get it, there will be desperate attempts to keep this all going but then bonds will spike, the credit default swaps will go pop in one nation after another and we will see an implosion.

At least I can say with the exception of one person most of these threads have been kept civil. I hope I am wrong but my take on this is it's all coming to a head and perhaps sooner than people anticipate.
 
Sidicks, depending on salary, you could say it doesn't matter that inflation has risen 20%, my inflation has fallen by 5%. The reality is, for me included, that when you are less than the average salary, i.e. less than 25k, then you don't have the room for manoeuvrings.

I'm not saying my puchasing plans are indicative of the general population. I'm just saying that, as far as food is concerned, the supermarkets are full of offers so with some careful planning, actual experienced inflation could be lower.

Also let me just clarify, I think in the next year there will be many mutual funds, futures accounts funds just disappear.

When you talk about 'mutual funds' and 'futures accounts', what exactly do you mean??
:confused:

I think this will lead to a full on panic mode, causing runs on the banks, banks will demand more liquidity and they will get it, there will be desperate attempts to keep this all going but then bonds will spike, the credit default swaps will go pop in one nation after another and we will see an implosion.

At least I can say with the exception of one person most of these threads have been kept civil. I hope I am wrong but my take on this is it's all coming to a head and perhaps sooner than people anticipate.
You could be right, but I doubt it!
:)
Sidicks
 
I am less doom.

I think the EU will try debt right downs and maybe have to nationalize some banks. If that fails start issuing EU bonds, and if the Germans will not agree to that, or that fails then QE used to buy government debt and then right it off. Then maybe more QE to right off more debt and maybe trigger currency devaluation tempered by fears of inflation getting out of hand.

I do not see savers deposit accounts in high street banks or the banking system used for debt/credit cards collapsing or hyper inflation happening anytime soon.

I do see bank shareholders and investors being in peril.
 
Food inflation isn't actually that bad right now. The damage was done mid-late 2008, since then most things have been up and down around the 5% mark. The problem is, prices on many goods have hit that crunch point where customers aren't prepared to pay any more, forcing the supermarkets to be rather creative.

http://inflationstats.com/uk/rpi-all-items/
 
So a cup of coffee a sandwich and a slice of cake is
Coffee 20.6%
Milk 2.7%
Sugar and preserves 8.8%
Bread 3.5%
Butter 11.8%
Biscuits and cakes 12.8%
Electricity for the electric kettle 14.9%

Lamb chops, potatoes and vegetables for dinner
Lamb 22.5%
Unprocessed potatoes 9.7%
Fresh vegetables excluding potatoes 3.1%
Gas for the gas cooker 22.4%

Goverment headline inflation is 5%.
So that would be a glass of water, bread minus butter or jam, no cake. Raw vegetables for dinner. To have lower inflation than the government headline figure.
 
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So a cup of coffee a sandwich and a slice of cake is
Coffee 20.6%
Milk 2.7%
Sugar and preserves 8.8%
Bread 3.5%
Butter 11.8%
Biscuits and cakes 12.8%
Electricity for the electric kettle 14.9%

Lamb chops, potatoes and vegetables for dinner
Lamb 22.5%
Unprocessed potatoes 9.7%
Fresh vegetables excluding potatoes 3.1%
Gas for the gas cooker 22.4%

Goverment headline inflation is 5%.
So that would be a glass of water, bread minus butter or jam, no cake. Raw vegetables for dinner. To have lower inflation than the government headline figure.

Except that anyone with common sense would changee the lamb for the chicken which is on special offer this week or the standard jam rather than the 'luxury' version etc etc.

As far as I am concerned there is no excuse for complaining about 'food inflation' if you aren't prepared to modify your eating habbits to take advantage of special offers!
:)
Sidicks
 
Except that anyone with common sense would changee the lamb for the chicken which is on special offer this week or the standard jam rather than the 'luxury' version etc etc.

As far as I am concerned there is no excuse for complaining about 'food inflation' if you aren't prepared to modify your eating habbits to take advantage of special offers!
:)
Sidicks

Lamb 22.5% Poultry 5.8%
Suprised you did not say I should drink Tea instead of Coffee.
Coffee 20.6% Tea 3.2%

Sugar and preserves includes the own brand jam on special offer. It is not RPI Inflation excluding all supermarket own brand and special offers.

What if I already buy the own brand on special offer?
Plenty of people already shopped sensibly before the economic downturn. Budget own brands, and special offers are not inflation exempt. The price of the cheapest goods has gone up.

If you think everyone should reduce the variety of their diet and buy what is cheap. How do you think inflation should be measured? By the price of turnips the traditional food of last resort in event of famine?

I think we should tell the EU to stop paying farmers set aside. We have our farmers being paid to not farm around 20% of the agricultural land. Would help the balance of trade too, as the UK imports food it could produce.
We could also reduce the EU trade tariffs on agricultural produce. The price of food in the UK and the EU is kept artificially high.
 
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Lamb 22.5% Poultry 5.8%
Suprised you did not say I should drink Tea instead of Coffee.
Coffee 20.6% Tea 3.2%

Sugar and preserves includes the own brand jam on special offer. It is not RPI Inflation excluding all supermarket own brand and special offers.

What if I already buy the own brand on special offer?
Plenty of people already shopped sensibly before the economic downturn. Budget own brands, and special offers are not inflation exempt. The price of the cheapest goods has gone up.

If you think everyone should reduce the variety of their diet and buy what is cheap. How do you think inflation should be measured? By the price of turnips the traditional food of last resort in event of famine?

I think we should tell the EU to stop paying farmers set aside. We have our farmers being paid to not farm around 20% of the agricultural land. Would help the balance of trade too, as the UK imports food it could produce.
We could also reduce the EU trade tariffs on agricultural produce. The price of food in the UK and the EU is kept artificially high.

My point is that there is still the opportunity to reduce the costs by being flexible. Further, in more austere times, it is appropriate to cut back on certain goods if these are becoming much more expensive - it wasn't so long ago that goods such as coffee were considered luxury items rather than essentials.
:)

Sidicks
 
My point is that there is still the opportunity to reduce the costs by being flexible. Further, in more austere times, it is appropriate to cut back on certain goods if these are becoming much more expensive - it wasn't so long ago that goods such as coffee were considered luxury items rather than essentials.
:)

Sidicks

in which case we should also cut back on tea, even if it isnt considered a luxury Its hardly a necessity and is imported so i say cut back or put a heavy tax on it.The tax levied could be used to subsidize lamb, which is much better for you
 
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la gran siete said:
in which case we should also cut back on tea, even if it isnt considered a luxury Its hardly a necessity and is imported so i say cut back or put a heavy tax on it.The tax levied could be used to subsidize lamb, which is much better for you
Lamb is hardly a necessity either!!

Tea does although have some positive health benefits whereas i think excessive consumption of red meat like lamb has been shown to increase cancer risk.

Common sense suggests that eating anything in moderation reduces the risks, but there is no justifiable reason to increase tax on tea to subsidise lamb!!

:)
Sidicks
 
I think it was abolished in 2008.

Yes you are right the policy of arable set-aside that was abolished in 2008.

However on further reading I have found that land in an EU Forestry Scheme or an EU Agri-environment scheme on which SFP was paid in 2008 in respect of set-aside entitlements remained eligible for the duration of the relevant scheme

Also eligible land for the purpose of activating entitlements under the Single Farm Payment Scheme includes the following: Land managed according to Set-aside Management Rules, fallow land

So I think they still get the money from the EU for land they are not farming they just are no longer required by the terms of getting the money to not farm it. They can farm it if they want to.

However the CAP Greening policy will come into force after 2013. 30% of the payments will be tied to Greening. Farmers are paid a subsidy to dedicate a fixed percentage of the farm land to an environmental use rather than agricultural production. Under Greening all farms must designate 7 per cent of their farmland as ecological focus areas (EFAs).
 
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Sidicks as I mentioned yesterday, it's not simply the price, well it is, but as you will have noticed manufacturers are attempting to hide the price rises, which are vast, by reducing the size of the item too. This is hiding a further 10% plus of inflation in some products in particular confectionery.

QE, Interest rate burning etc, it's done "wonders" for people's wallets on a weekly basis.

Dover Cat you mentioned about governments nationalising banks, that's essentially what happened with Northern Rock. Hence the 21 billion stench which hangs around our collective necks which we are forced to pay for.
The sum of all parts is a big ball and chain sinking us lower and lower.
Maybe in this new world, people can be encouraged to do away with traditional foods, eat grass, nettles, road kill.
It makes me saddened to watch as we just slide backwards now, turning the clocks back. Only this is a new environment now and I fear that should things go the way I think they probably will that not only economically, but socially there will be catastrophic consequences. However that's probably for another thread.
 
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The Bank of England Monetary Policy committee is talking about UK output returning to its 2008 level by 2013. That makes it a very slow recovery from the recession.

Employment levels in some parts of the country are predicted to recover by 2020. A very long down turn from them.

But I think generally we are talking about living standards falling a bit in the short term, then going slowly up again.
Not a rapid or slow never ending decline in living standards.

Food and Fuel prices I think are more cause for concern. The world price of food and fuel looks likely to go up.
 
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I think those figures are nonsense, it doesn't take into account that millions more people will simply have given up looking for work and in addition to which raising the retirement age, plus the prediction of millions more immigrants from the E.U arriving in this country in the coming years, plus the birth rates particularly amongst asians.

There is a groundswell of holes in these predictions, the likes of which those predictions realise themselves too of course. My reply is only pointing out the obvious.

As for fuel prices, consider this, in 2008, oil was $150 a barrel and yet currently it's what, at $107, or so and yet petrol is actually more expensive or on a par with what it was then. When we get $150 a barrel oil again, well, I don't need to elaborate on the devastating effect that will have.

The pound is losing value, we talk about the USDX and we can point to the fluctuating strength and it having risen at this moment but the fundamental flaw in this analysis is that it's only measured against other curencies which are also falling.
 
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As for fuel prices, consider this, in 2008, oil was $150 a barrel and yet currently it's what, at $107, or so and yet petrol is actually more expensive or on a par with what it was then. When we get $150 a barrel oil again, well, I don't need to elaborate on the devastating effect that will have.

It depends on what happens to the dollar versus sterling. It's always been volatile.
 

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