is it good time to buy now ?

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by la gran siete, Jan 29, 2009.

  1. la gran siete

    la gran siete
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    or should one wait six months? Estate agents keep telling me the market is beginning to move mainly as the result of speculators stepping into the buy to let market, but i think there may be a further fall .What say you?
     
  2. andykn

    andykn
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    "never try and catch a falling knife".

    Research your chosen market and you will see when prices start to rise.

    The last house price slump lasted about 4 years, we're less than 2 into this one.
     
  3. krish

    krish
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    yes but they're :censored:ing liars ;)
     
  4. Newton's Ring

    Newton's Ring
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    True. True.
     
  5. WHUFC

    WHUFC
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    Its a good time to buy if oyu can manage 30 40 % deposit, and offer 10 15% less than what there asking.

    ..
     
  6. Ian J

    Ian J
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    On the news today the suggestion was that prices will continue to drift downwards for a while yet.
     
  7. Yandros

    Yandros
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    :lesson::lesson::lesson::lesson::lesson::lesson:

    Sit this one out mate, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

    If I could be bothered, I could dig out the 2 or 3 posts I've made in General Chat in the last few years advising first time buyers to keep the hell out of property as it was about to go seriously pear-shaped. I seem to recall most of this fell on deaf ears at the time *sigh*

    Although it's very bearish, I'd suggest poking your nose around in House price news, information and discussion - HousePriceCrash.co.uk, and listening to the predictions there.
     
  8. andykn

    andykn
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    "Bearish"?, biased more like, probably another of those Tory fronts like the taxpayers alliance. Looks like they pulled the post about there being a mortgage backlog straightaway.
     
  9. Yandros

    Yandros
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    Oh, unashamedly biased, but not a Tory front I can assure you. I've been reading it for years and they're extremely anti-establishment, anti-VI (vested interests) but have no particular political persuasion. Ok, there a lot of angry disenfranchised people there, but if you take this as a given when reading, it's a good news source chewed over by some pretty clued up folks.

    For example, they predicted the Icelandic collapse 6 months before it happened last year.
     
  10. andykn

    andykn
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    If they've been called housepricecrash for more than two years, then fair enough. I've had a bit more of a look and they do appear to be fairly genuine.
     
  11. Yandros

    Yandros
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    Btw, in case it wasn't clear, I was agreeing 100% with your advice to the OP. I joined housepricecrash in 2004 I think, when there were HUUUGE arguements between the bulls and bears (quite a few property speculators trolling). It became a rather bitter place as the bubble got worse and worse. Since the credit crunch they've proved to be interesting commentators. After all, these folks mostly don't want to see the system brought down (a few clearly do :eek:)...they just want a house.

    One thing to watch out for - when the doommongers of housepricecrash.co.uk move from glee to fear (and there are threads along those lines)...buy tinned food and a shotgun!
     
  12. la gran siete

    la gran siete
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    From what I can make out some areas are perceived in very negative terms quite often unfailrly and there is little movement in them.Some properties are moving but they tend to be in certain areas near favoured schools for eg.The number of buy to lets has increased considerably, so that market may end up saturated although reposesions will increase demand to some extent.Most desirable Lets seem to be two bedroomed terraced or semi with parking facilities, near a favoured school and station.Single bedroom flats also go quickly but then there are annual maintenance costs running at 1000k + pa or potential negative issues with landlords .Flat freeholds are a nono as building societies are very reluctant to lend money for those thus making them more difficult to sell.
     
  13. loz

    loz
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    Apparently the number of mortgage approvals was up in December compared to November though, both in the UK and US
     
  14. la gran siete

    la gran siete
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    a small percentage yes but its still the second lowest for the year
     
  15. Pack Dude

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    Its always a good time to buy and provide some social housing for the proletariat. Sounds like you are in the lucky position to be able to provide a house to some homeless family. I'm sure with your policital views you would put the homeless before any capital gain.
     
  16. Yandros

    Yandros
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    27K to 31K. I believe 70K is considered 'normal'
     
  17. chrisw

    chrisw
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    A friend who is one of the top surveyors for a large building firm said that they are looking at September for starting to buy land - this is when they predict the bottom of the market will be.
     
  18. ste v p

    ste v p
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    While people keep losing their jobs, I can only see the housing market going one way and that's down. The housing market is inextricably linked to the economic boom of the past 10-15 years. As long as the country is in recession, I personally can't see house prices starting to rise.

    If you have a good deposit and are a keen negotiator, I would be tempted to look around for deals. But I would be offering well below asking price. Remember a houses price is not what it says on the price tag, it's what somebody is willing to pay for it and as few people are buying, a low offer won't necessarily be rejected if it's the only offer on the table.
     
  19. Iccz

    Iccz
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    Estate agents need to make sales, more so than ever as nobody is buying... for the obvious reasons... same with car sales etc...

    I'd wait a bit longer if you can, as said in other posts keep an eye on the market, prices in areas / size of the house etc...
     
  20. Steve N

    Steve N
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    A good tip is to watch the sales of new builds.
    A friend of mine hung on and then bought the week before Christmas.
    The plots he had been watching had been dormant for months then one or two starting selling.
    He moved in as there was one he particularly wanted.

    I'm pretty sure there will be further falls but probably not so dramatic now.
    Also - Look at the Pound. The value of property will sustain or recover over the long term, but the slide in value of the pound is more unpredictable.

    You'd have to be very lucky to guess exactly just when the market has bottomed out. Then you'll hit the mini bounce as everyone like yourself tries to buy as they see the market value increasing.
     
  21. andykn

    andykn
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    Because trying to guess the bottom relies on luck is why you shouldn't try and guess when the bottom is but wait for prices to rise. If you miss the bottom on the way up you may miss a couple of percentage points. Miss it on the way down and you could still be out another 10-15%.
     
  22. mij

    mij
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    If you need a home it is a good time.

    If you want to cash in on others misfortunes, I would wait a bit longer.
     
  23. joust

    joust
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    Is this house for you, or is it a BTL?

    If its for you, consider the cost of the current rent you're paying vs paying a mortgage (unless you're living with parents rent free:devil:) - it may be that you would pay a similar amount on a mrtgage as the rent you are paying. It would possibly then make much more sense to buy a house now (I'm assuming that you can reasonably afford it), than wasting another 6-9 months rent money.

    However, a BTL, wait until the bottom and then buy!

    Joust
     
  24. booyaka

    booyaka
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    well i'm buying!!!:D

    Been looking for a while and decided when we saw a house recently that was on sale for about 3 months and now it has been reduced by £20k as the owners have purchased a new build and potential need to move quickly.

    I offered another 5k under the new reduced asking price and they accepted. I just need to sell my house now!!!:eek:

    A bit different to England but the housing market has been affected a little less up here in Scotland but prices still have dropped.

    I'm not tied to buying this house as my get out clause is if i don't sell mine.

    Yes the housing market has dropped and may continue to do so but the potential to buy the house we wanted with a large discount and under the actual valuation price of the property - we decided it was a good time to do so.

    There probably is never a perfect time to buy or sell for that matter. Whatever feels right i guess!
     
  25. booyaka

    booyaka
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    When's that going to be?? Crystal ball stuff!!!:D
     
  26. la gran siete

    la gran siete
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    No its a BTL.More to do with my wife than me as she wants to pack her onerous job and take on something part time and using rentals to augment her income.Bit impatient, though, as she wants to dive in now:rotfl:I shall have to persuade her to be patient:rolleyes:
     
  27. joust

    joust
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    As it's going to be a BTL, the advice given earlier by Andykn is pretty sound. It's not a good time to buy as an 'investment' - most rental incomes are in the doldrums at the moment, probably won't cover the mortgage outgoing, and until the market picks up, will stay that way.

    No no, my crystall ball is as cloudy as everybody elses :rotfl:

    Joust
     
  28. Yandros

    Yandros
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    Exactly. The last pickup in the market was VERY slow, so you'll probably have plenty of time to pick your moment. I bought a flat in 1990 for £40K. It crashed over about 2 years to a low point of £13K. I bought a house in 1994 at the very bottom of the market for £51K, and rented out the flat till it recovered in value. In 1999 the flat had recovered to £38K, and the house was sold for £67K.

    The best option is to wait for a sustained recovery in the market rather than fall into a 'bull trap' (ie a false recovery followed by a further plummet)
     
  29. johntheexpat

    johntheexpat
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    Paraphrasing a Rothschild or some other rich banker, don't aim to sell at the top or buy at the bottom, you'll never get it right. If you want to make money, be content with selling near the top and buying near the bottom.
    Oh and never believe what an Estate Agent tells you.

    And consider using other fundamentals to give you a heads up. For example, don't listen to stuff about prices, but note how many mortgage approvals are being given and the value of new mortgages. Then set yourself a target, eg 66% to 75% of 'normal' rather than 'boom time' figures might be a place to start, because that would indicate money is slowly starting to move back into the system.
     
  30. la gran siete

    la gran siete
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    how would i get hold of that information and would that be on a more local level than national?:)
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2009

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