"That won't happen until both one standard is clear and the related players drop below $200. They need both to happen or the market won't move. Currently, Blu-ray is running at more than twice the target price on players and HD-DVD is about 15 percent over target...
This means that if the studios have any chance this year of getting a large ramp -- and I would include Wal-Mart and Amazon, and anyone else that sells HD movies -- it has to be HD-DVD. Blu-ray simply can't get there."
...and...
"So, as of right now, I think it is reasonably obvious Blu-ray lost. The only question is whether HD-DVD will be allowed to win"
...and...
"If both lose, the long-term strategic fallout for Sony and Disney will be both impressive and memorable in terms of either company's influence going forward -- in fact, for Sony, I'm not sure things actually could get much worse."
Food for thought.
Steve W