how do you see the economy going in the next year or three?

richp007

Distinguished Member
It's alright higher wages are coming....

....that's what we were told right?




Rest of the thread from Faisal is worth a look too.
 

niceguy1966

Distinguished Member
It's alright higher wages are coming....

....that's what we were told right?




Rest of the thread from Faisal is worth a look too.

Higher wages, but even higher inflation.

Anyone under the age of 40 never had a working life in a high inflation economy. There's going to be a steep learning curve!
 
D

Deleted member 51156

Guest
“Monetary policy cant increase the supply of chips and can’t affect the wind speed,” says Bailey pointing out the BoE’s rate decisions cant affect some of the fundamental drivers of current high inflation…

The inflationary pressures are solely down to the pandemic.
 

niceguy1966

Distinguished Member
“Monetary policy cant increase the supply of chips and can’t affect the wind speed,” says Bailey pointing out the BoE’s rate decisions cant affect some of the fundamental drivers of current high inflation…

The inflationary pressures are solely down to the pandemic.
Was Brexit cancelled then?
 

MrsArcanum

Member
Without any pay rises at all, costs have gone up. Petrol at over £6.54 a gallon & utility bills going up, a 3.1% CPI increase will not cover NMW pay rises for any business that is fixed to CPI. Let alone it is 5 months to April when most pay rises kick in, when a 10% hike to NI, freeze on Tax thresholds and Council tax increases of 4.9%.

People will be considerably worse off.
 

LakieLady

Distinguished Member
Without any pay rises at all, costs have gone up. Petrol at over £6.54 a gallon & utility bills going up, a 3.1% CPI increase will not cover NMW pay rises for any business that is fixed to CPI. Let alone it is 5 months to April when most pay rises kick in, when a 10% hike to NI, freeze on Tax thresholds and Council tax increases of 4.9%.

People will be considerably worse off.

4.9% on council tax is a shocker. Council tax here is almost £200 a month for a band C property, that'll take it to nearly £210. It's my biggest monthly bill by miles.
 
D

Deleted member 51156

Guest
Was Brexit cancelled then?
This is the real picture.
Supply chain disruptions and shortages are continuing to happen because of the dramatic upturn in economies, a release of bottled-up consumer spending.
Events like the blockage of the Suez Canal earlier this year had a heightened impact because it was a case of disruption on disruption.
A question mark also remains over whether the surge in demand for products is real or just a bubble of stockpiling as businesses fill their stock rooms to pre-empt recovery. The danger is that customer demand doesn’t or won’t exist on the same scale and we enter a boom-and-bust cycle.

My estimation is the above is almost certainly true.

The lockdown period has meant a return by populations to focusing on the base areas of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: food, housing, health care products and, in the 21st century, our need for WiFi and digital connectivity.
There’s the likelihood that in the post-COVID-19 period, at least initially, consumers will feel psychologically attached to these behaviors. Having become used to home delivery, associating them with convenience and safety, it may well be that these models persist and become a larger, more established part of consumer expectations. But there have been associated cost implications for business, with so many home delivery services being provided free or at an uneconomically viable low cost.

There's definitely a shift in consumer behaviour, and businesses have to adapt to the current needs of serving people during a pandemic.
Min 5 yrs to even begin to fall back to some semblance of 'New', normal business-consumer relationships.
The Era of the bargain is over, the boomers are in a for a big shock.
 

niceguy1966

Distinguished Member
This is the real picture.
Supply chain disruptions and shortages are continuing to happen because of the dramatic upturn in economies, a release of bottled-up consumer spending.
Events like the blockage of the Suez Canal earlier this year had a heightened impact because it was a case of disruption on disruption.
A question mark also remains over whether the surge in demand for products is real or just a bubble of stockpiling as businesses fill their stock rooms to pre-empt recovery. The danger is that customer demand doesn’t or won’t exist on the same scale and we enter a boom-and-bust cycle.

My estimation is the above is almost certainly true.

The lockdown period has meant a return by populations to focusing on the base areas of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: food, housing, health care products and, in the 21st century, our need for WiFi and digital connectivity.
There’s the likelihood that in the post-COVID-19 period, at least initially, consumers will feel psychologically attached to these behaviors. Having become used to home delivery, associating them with convenience and safety, it may well be that these models persist and become a larger, more established part of consumer expectations. But there have been associated cost implications for business, with so many home delivery services being provided free or at an uneconomically viable low cost.

There's definitely a shift in consumer behaviour, and businesses have to adapt to the current needs of serving people during a pandemic.
Min 5 yrs to even begin to fall back to some semblance of 'New', normal business-consumer relationships.
The Era of the bargain is over, the boomers are in a for a big shock.
Your previous post wrote "The inflationary pressures are solely down to the pandemic."

That means you think that all the additional costs imposed on business by Brexit would just be absorbed with no increase in prices. That is very unrealistic. Posting reports about Covid based inflation doesn't claim that Brexit will have no effect on inflation. The two are independent.
 
D

Deleted member 51156

Guest
Your previous post wrote "The inflationary pressures are solely down to the pandemic."

That means you think that all the additional costs imposed on business by Brexit would just be absorbed with no increase in prices. That is very unrealistic. Posting reports about Covid based inflation doesn't claim that Brexit will have no effect on inflation. The two are independent.
It's not possible to quantify Brexit across the whole market when the pandemic has quite clearly had a dramatic effect on supply chains.
We know this for a fact.

There are very few on the thread commenting on global supply chain issues, noticing a box of bran flakes rising in price connecting that with the 'Tories-Brexit' isn't a valid analysis.

The bit highlighted in bold is just made up nonsense.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
We are able to quantify some of Brexit, and are managing to with increasing accuracy. Data from other countries like Germany is assisting us now as well (in areas of trade for example), as everywhere begins to emerge from (hopefully) the worst of Covid.

It will get easier as more time passes and more data becomes available. This should be most welcome by all, because once we know how damaging it has been we may hopefully be able to mitigate further damage and begin the repair process where necessary.

The latter there may be wishful thinking, but as it becomes harder to hide the effects, the harder it will also be to justify the current direction.

Simply, business and industry won't stand for it.
 

niceguy1966

Distinguished Member
It's not possible to quantify Brexit across the whole market when the pandemic has quite clearly had a dramatic effect on supply chains.
We know this for a fact.

There are very few on the thread commenting on global supply chain issues, noticing a box of bran flakes rising in price connecting that with the 'Tories-Brexit' isn't a valid analysis.

The bit highlighted in bold is just made up nonsense.
You are still clinging to the same unrealistic assumption.

For "The inflationary pressures are solely down to the pandemic." to be true, the cost of Brexit would have to be zero. This is clearly not true. Therefore whatever the inflationary pressures due to Brexit are, it has nothing to do with the inflationary pressures due to Covid. The two are independent.

Covid may be masking Brexit, but it hasn't made it go away completely.
 

Nick74

Distinguished Member
business and industry won't stand for it.

I'm afraid enough voters to keep this government in power will stand for it.

There is no counter Brexit argument, because Brexit is an ideology, a faith.

If you're a true believer, no evidence can sway you. When the leader of the country is your religion's high priest, no act, however appalling, will turn you from the cause.

That's why Brexit must be a never-ending journey.

We can never get Brexit done. Partly because it was always a fantasy destination, but also because if we did so, if we arrived at sunlit uplands, Brexit's architects would run out of road. They'd have no fantasy left to peddle, no resentment left to exploit.
 

LakieLady

Distinguished Member
The lockdown period has meant a return by populations to focusing on the base areas of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: food, housing, health care products and, in the 21st century, our need for WiFi and digital connectivity.
There’s the likelihood that in the post-COVID-19 period, at least initially, consumers will feel psychologically attached to these behaviors. Having become used to home delivery, associating them with convenience and safety, it may well be that these models persist and become a larger, more established part of consumer expectations. But there have been associated cost implications for business, with so many home delivery services being provided free or at an uneconomically viable low cost.

There's definitely a shift in consumer behaviour, and businesses have to adapt to the current needs of serving people during a pandemic.
Min 5 yrs to even begin to fall back to some semblance of 'New', normal business-consumer relationships.
The Era of the bargain is over, the boomers are in a for a big shock.

I agree with this.

When non-essential shops were closed for 3 months or so, a lot of people must have realised how little they needed all sorts of stuff and how easy it is to get the stuff they really do need online.

The only "non-essential" items I bought during the first lockdown were books.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
I'm afraid enough voters to keep this government in power will stand for it.

There is no counter Brexit argument, because Brexit is an ideology, a faith.

If you're a true believer, no evidence can sway you. When the leader of the country is your religion's high priest, no act, however appalling, will turn you from the cause.

That's why Brexit must be a never-ending journey.

We can never get Brexit done. Partly because it was always a fantasy destination, but also because if we did so, if we arrived at sunlit uplands, Brexit's architects would run out of road. They'd have no fantasy left to peddle, no resentment left to exploit.

Whilst I don't disagree with your sentiment, business and industry isn't driven by ideology or faith. They're driven by profits and progress. I'd say Brexiters here are outnumbered.

So whilst at times a detriment to us (banks for example), they may well still prove to be the thorn in the side of this government's ideological folly.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
I'm afraid enough voters to keep this government in power will stand for it.

Only if they are not directly impacted by the Governments decisions. Once you start hitting people in the pockets then Governments tend to get into trouble with voters pretty quickly.

There is no counter Brexit argument, because Brexit is an ideology, a faith.

The reality of Brexit has yet to truly set in. Once it does, I think most voters will see it as a mistake and probably won't tolerate endless spats with the EU.

If you're a true believer, no evidence can sway you. When the leader of the country is your religion's high priest, no act, however appalling, will turn you from the cause.

The true believers will probably just blame Boris for it, but they are a minority, even in the Tory Party. They are paying lip service to Brexit because it enabled the Tories to continue it's death grip on power.

That's why Brexit must be a never-ending journey.

I'm optimistic that most people will not want a never ending Brexit and will either demand the Government enters into trade talks with the EU to get a better deal or the Youth will demand we rejoin the EU. Politics is very much still in flux. I expect Brexit will claim yet another Tory PM in the shape of Johnson. We'll have a hardcore of never surrender Brexiteers, but I do think they'll be drowned out.

We can never get Brexit done. Partly because it was always a fantasy destination, but also because if we did so, if we arrived at sunlit uplands, Brexit's architects would run out of road. They'd have no fantasy left to peddle, no resentment left to exploit.

Brexit looks destined to fail. At which point there will be an opening to either do what should have been done in the first place - A Trade Deal that retains access to the Single Market and Customs Union or the UK attempting to rejoin the EU.

Brexit is all they've got, if people decide they were duped by Johnson ? Doesn't matter who takes over voters probably won't trust the Tories to sort the mess out. Once it's all said and done, I think this decade will see the Tories end up in the political wilderness again. They'll lick their wounds and regenerate into a new Tory Party, and the cycle will continue. Unless a Politician has the political courage to get rid of FPTP. Then the dynamics change.

Johnson's attempts to avoid his dodgy dealings being looked into, may ripped destroyed the protection "Get Brexit Done" slogan has afford Johnson.
 

MrsArcanum

Member
I agree with this.

When non-essential shops were closed for 3 months or so, a lot of people must have realised how little they needed all sorts of stuff and how easy it is to get the stuff they really do need online.

The only "non-essential" items I bought during the first lockdown were books.
books are essential
 

niceguy1966

Distinguished Member
Hard to argue against this...


Very easy to argue against it actually.

It doesn't matter where the gas comes from, there's a global market. If we produced more, and someone else was willing to pay a higher price than us, it would get exported.

Unless they are calling for the wholesale nationalisation of the energy sector, from production to retail, in which case they should write that more clearly.
 

VladTheImpeller

Distinguished Member
Hard to argue against this...


Being energy self sufficient isn't the same as extracting more gas

But why should I trust the advice of an obseity "expert" who has links to Julia Hately Brewer, the Heil and whose "expertise" is doubted

 

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