House Prices

kenshingintoki

Distinguished Member
Does anyone see an incoming house price dip in the next 6 months? I'm a single guy, looking to buy a new house.

My budget is around £400k as its only me living in the house.. so anymore is probably a bit of a waste.. but the value on the market where I live is TERRIBLE. People who have bought their houses for 390k last year in November are trying to sell them for £500k this year (they're not being sold). It's nuts.
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
It is difficult to say. Prices have been inflated recently by the Stamp Duty holiday and that will continue until end of March next year. The Tories have also suggested that they want a big push in house ownership so that to may keep prices up. And the underlying fact is there simply isn't enough housing to go around which again, keeps prices high. The flip side is it looks like mass unemployment might be coming and punitive taxation - on Capital Gains and Income - will deter some second home owners.

Are you asking the question in order to determine whether to jump in now or wait a bit? You budget is such that you may want to make use of the Stamp Duty holiday to save yourself some cash so sooner rather than later. You will have to balance that saving against the increased house prices we are seeing as a result of that same tax holiday.
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
There is quite a good opinion piece on this topic here:
(FT paywall might prevent direct access unless you are a subscriber - but if you Google "Do you really need to buy a property now?" it will let you in)

The author is quite stark in his assessment: "There are only two reasons you should be buying a home in September 2020...one is a life-changing event or a change in circumstances that forces a move. The other is if you’ve found a property you’re confident is sitting on either oil or gold.

He goes on that he believes that the Stamp Duty savings, which max out at £15,000, are being lost on inflated prices. He admits though that many of his clients are ignoring his advice and taking a 10+ year approach with little concern if the property market dips a little.

Some interesting thoughts to mull-over anyway.
 

krish

Distinguished Member
Just from the Zoopla/Rightmove alerts for my street (NW London) and my parents' street (Suffolk), I see prices dropping at present. Not too sure it's a 'normal' buyers' market, since many potential buyers/FTBs will be hesitant during this Covid recession/depression; while the much better off will be taking advantage.
 

Crafty

Member
I'd agree that the "free stamp duty" thing has inflated prices, quite possibly over what the stamp duty would cost anyway. I see a fair number of reductions on rightmove local to me currently.

There is a lot of talk about a drop next year because of various things or a combination thereof. I think that the more its talk about and speculated on the more its likely to happen, regardless of if there's any solid logic/reasoning.

There is often a focus on "the right time to buy" financially, but its almost impossible - if prices go down, should you buy ? or wait a couple of months to see if they go lower ? maybe 6 months ? maybe in a year there will be another "thing" going on that might mean prices drop... you could go on waiting forever. Its more than just money too - getting your own place and putting down roots is an emotional thing too.

At the end of the day, whever you buy you need to be happy in your own head about what you're doing, its a big undertaking.

From what you say the market is poor where you are, I'd bide your time and find the right property.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if house prices remained at their current crazy levels but really, it’s like a perfect storm out there at the moment for a bit of a fall (full on crash aint possible any more as the government(s) wont let that happen.
 

anobium

Active Member
nice budget, I purchased house around this time last year and my budget is around a quarter of what you have, around here in the north west you can buy a big 5 bed detached for your budget, though I guess if you live in london that budget would probably struggle to get you a 3 bed semi.
 

krish

Distinguished Member
though I guess if you live in london that budget would probably struggle to get you a 3 bed semi.
Probably would be a struggle, as my outer London 3-bed mid-terrace (or linked-semi), based on neighbours' asking prices for the last year, is anywhere in the 550-650K range, probably the bottom end right now. Would have been more than enough when I bought it 15 years ago.
 

anobium

Active Member
Property prices in London are insane, I don't know how you can afford to live down there, I certainly couldn't on my wage.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Probably why most are spending insane amounts on rent down there instead. What some are putting down as deposit, should be almost buying a house!

550K for a mid terrace lol. About 400K more than most would ever dream of spending on such a thing.
 

krish

Distinguished Member
550K for a mid terrace lol. About 400K more than most would ever dream of spending on such a thing.
It's a 2005 built 3 bed house, full size double rooms not box rooms for overpaying tenants, one master with en-suite shower (with a second smaller loft), separate bathroom, downstairs cloakroom WC, lounge, kitchen/dining room, front and back garden, garage and drive. Good luck finding all that for 150K anywhere. As I said it's also regarded as a linked-semi, since connected to the next one just by my garage to their's and my master bedroom and en-suite to their's.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
No need to get all defensive. Wasn’t having a go. Just that the price you mentioned is cloud cuckoo land. Even if it is the reality these days.
 

krish

Distinguished Member
I agree the price is crazy, but your £150K figure is a fantasy anywhere for that spec - yeah there'll be tiny 2-bed or less mid terraces.

What's really crazy around here is the price of bungalows. A 2-bed bungalow goes for about £650K here.
 
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silvercue

Distinguished Member
CEBR predicts that average house prices will be 13.8% lower in 2021 than in 2020. Stamp Duty coming back in is a big factor as it has artificially stimulated a boom when we should not really have one.

Of course, many other factors in play, location will have many anomalies. Some areas won't be that impacted.
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
CEBR predicts that average house prices will be 13.8% lower in 2021 than in 2020. Stamp Duty coming back in is a big factor as it has artificially stimulated a boom when we should not really have one.

Of course, many other factors in play, location will have many anomalies. Some areas won't be that impacted.
Agree completely on the Stamp Duty. The near 14% drop though is difficult to envisage given the shortage of housing. This said, with mass unemployment nearing, it is a possibility. If its like the 1980s there will some fantastic bargains to be picked up at auction.
 

silvercue

Distinguished Member
Agree completely on the Stamp Duty. The near 14% drop though is difficult to envisage given the shortage of housing. This said, with mass unemployment nearing, it is a possibility. If its like the 1980s there will some fantastic bargains to be picked up at auction.
Personally, I don't think we will see anything like that kind of drop. I am just the messenger :)

I think it will be more like 5-6%, with maybe a bit more of a reaction a couple of months after Stamp Duty comes back, but also, I am not an expert.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
I agree the price is crazy, but your £150K figure is a fantasy anywhere for that spec - yeah there'll be tiny 2-bed or less mid terraces.
Spoken like a true southerner. :D It's not that far off fantasy in some parts you know..... Anyways....I digress.

What's really crazy around here is the price of bungalows. A 2-bed bungalow goes for about £650K here.
Yup. That's bonkers crazy too (just like flats). My old man lives in one. Alone now since his Mrs passed last year.

Apparently it's value is nearly £200K :eek: And it's only really half a house. :eek::eek::D
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Agree completely on the Stamp Duty. The near 14% drop though is difficult to envisage given the shortage of housing. This said, with mass unemployment nearing, it is a possibility. If its like the 1980s there will some fantastic bargains to be picked up at auction.
Seemingly they dropped circa 15% during the last crisis 2008-10 ish.

Next year could be way more serious than back then. Re number of jobs gone etc.

FWIW I agree that it's hard to envisage with the UK's housing issues but the ingredients are there for a substantial fall.

I was a first time buyer a few years back and it's a one buy deal. 10 more years to pay the mortgage is all i'm interested in. Prices would have to fall 50% for me to consider trading up.
 

kenshingintoki

Distinguished Member
edit: found a perfect house but.....
SOLD (to someone else).

Back to buying subwoofers and amplifiers lol.
 
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krish

Distinguished Member
edit: found a perfect house but.....
SOLD (to someone else).
Is is still Under Offer / Sold STC / Sale Agreed? Does the estate agent have your details? These things fall through more often than you might think, and the agent will go straight to their pile of sales leads for the property. You'd also then have the power to make a lower offer.
 
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kenshingintoki

Distinguished Member
Is is still Under Offer / Sold STC / Sale Agreed? Does the estate agent have your details? These things fall through more often than you might think, and the agent will go straight to their pile of sales leads for the property. You'd also then have the power to make a lower offer.

Hi mate. It is still for sale on rightmove but they told me its sold over the phone so unable to put in an offer.

I have two properties I'm interested, both 'SOLD'. Do you have any advice for making sure I'm ontop of that sales pile to ensure they come to me if there is a hiccup?

This is why I hate on-calls and night shifts. This entire month I've been on-call/nights so physically could not fit in an appointment to view the houses etc. easily. Damn!
 

krish

Distinguished Member
I have two properties I'm interested, both 'SOLD'. Do you have any advice for making sure I'm ontop of that sales pile to ensure they come to me if there is a hiccup?
Probably exactly what you're doing - searching and viewing as much as you can, and something will hopefully fall into your lap.

I moved down here on a 5 month rental in a shared house with the aim of finding the right property to buy - and on a Friday in the 4th month received an email from an estate agent with my house. Had a "pre-arranged" mortgage from some weeks earlier, and took the remaining month to get everything sorted and move in. That was 2005 when it wasn't as much online as now, so you'll probably be more efficient at the search and view.

Call those agents again re those two properties and just directly ask them to call you if the sale is falling through. Call back a week (or just a few days) later on the same thing, while asking about similar properties on the market, especially unlisted ones.
 
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kenshingintoki

Distinguished Member
Probably exactly what you're doing - searching and viewing as much as you can, and something will hopefully fall into your lap.

I moved down here on a 5 month rental in a shared house with the aim of finding the right property to buy - and on a Friday in the 4th month received an email from an estate agent with my house. Had a "pre-arranged" mortgage from some weeks earlier, and took the remaining month to get everything sorted and move in. That was 2005 when it wasn't as much online as now, so you'll probably be more efficient at the search and view.

Call those agents again re those two properties and just directly ask them to call you if the sale is falling through. Call back a week (or just a few days) later on the same thing, while asking about similar properties on the market, especially unlisted ones.
Thanks. I'll give it a go tommorow. With how things work these days.. I feel like things are simpler but harder at the same time with trying to chase down a good deal and communicate with estate agents.
 

imightbewrong

Distinguished Member
Some friends of ours sold a modest family home here in London Zone 6 last week. As soon as they put it on the market they were inundated with interest, and had an asking price offer before even everyone who had contacted them on the first day had viewed.
 

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