Herd immunity being considered again?

Philly112

Distinguished Member
It'll be interesting to see what the Swedish epidemiologists say about this. It appears to undermine their position from what I can understand of it.
 

Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
It'll be interesting to see what the Swedish epidemiologists say about this. It appears to undermine their position from what I can understand of it.
I though the Swedish epidemiologists stance was that lockdown would not help in the spread of the virus, making herd immunity more difficult. Lockdown suppresses herd immunity.
 

Philly112

Distinguished Member
I though the Swedish epidemiologists stance was that lockdown would not help in the spread of the virus, making herd immunity more difficult. Lockdown suppresses herd immunity.
That's part of it. But (in the interviews I've seen) they're talking about far higher asymptomatic numbers, and a correspondingly much lower death rate (below 0.3%).
 

Chocci

Member


Early/mid April with probably not 100% reliable testing isn't really worth thinking on. Judging by Swedens case numbers since, they could well be close to herd immunity in Stockholm and hopefully so as that is the logical approach now. 75% of Swedens deaths are in care homes which is deplorable but puts their stats in perspective. Even a who spokesman admitted the other day that their approach could be the way forward for the rest of the works.

Im starting to think there is something in this vitamin d (sunlight) theory as an explanation why cases are plummeting across southern Europe, Africa, India etc

We'll find out in a few weeks from Italy as even I think (lockdown sceptic) they're being far too reckless with their way forward
 

iangreasby

Well-known Member
Early/mid April with probably not 100% reliable testing isn't really worth thinking on. Judging by Swedens case numbers since, they could well be close to herd immunity in Stockholm and hopefully so as that is the logical approach now. 75% of Swedens deaths are in care homes which is deplorable but puts their stats in perspective. Even a who spokesman admitted the other day that their approach could be the way forward for the rest of the works.

Im starting to think there is something in this vitamin d (sunlight) theory as an explanation why cases are plummeting across southern Europe, Africa, India etc

We'll find out in a few weeks from Italy as even I think (lockdown sceptic) they're being far too reckless with their way forward
Maybe all those people sunbathing on the beaches yesterday are on to something! ;)
 

starfarer

Well-known Member
Early/mid April with probably not 100% reliable testing isn't really worth thinking on. Judging by Swedens case numbers since, they could well be close to herd immunity in Stockholm and hopefully so as that is the logical approach now. 75% of Swedens deaths are in care homes which is deplorable but puts their stats in perspective. Even a who spokesman admitted the other day that their approach could be the way forward for the rest of the works.

Im starting to think there is something in this vitamin d (sunlight) theory as an explanation why cases are plummeting across southern Europe, Africa, India etc

We'll find out in a few weeks from Italy as even I think (lockdown sceptic) they're being far too reckless with their way forward
it's the patterns. Every survey results from different areas are for some reasons very low. I don't think even the scientist were expecting these kind of percentages. Reliability of tests must have gone through some testing and already accounted for. If assume tests are reliable and data reflect close approximation, forget Sweden as even in UK some of the deaths here could've been prevented with much earlier lockdown policy.

Question is why prevalance in "normal living environment" is so low. We know from cruise ships, prisons and military aircraft carriers, the infection rate can be very high. No doubt that this virus is very infectious. Sweden was not in lockdown so that take out it as one common factor but if we look on those high rate examples (ships, prisons, churches), confined space (with certain no of people) is a common factor. It could be very probable that with lockdown here in UK esp in London, we've taken out confined space factor (big Events,offices, schools, public transport etc) and prevented "super-spreaders" in those areas. But then you would expect Neil Ferguson to be shouting from top of big ben or Boris taking credits.

Temperature could be also a factor but hard to think experts/scientists to miss it. Almost all Europe, North America are in temperate zone and normally gets worst hit compared to tropics for these respiratory disease caused by viruses. Lipid envelope viruses are not so effective in transmission during warmer conditions. Vit D is well researched topic for immune health. These are just basics.

Let's hope someone will come up with good scientific explanation to what's really happening.
 

bjd

Distinguished Member

acatweasel

Well-known Member
Well, so testing isn't very accurate if this study is to be believed. Surprise, surprise.
 

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