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Herd immunity being considered again?

Skyfall74

Active Member
There's an article in the independent today, saying the government is being asked to consider herd immunity (HI) again due to the social, employment and economic problems arising from lockdown.

HI is what the government's original plan was, just over 3 weeks back but of course went with the lockdown option.

I'm wondering if the main reason for the lockdown was to buy the government time to build more hospitals, get more intensive care beds, READY to allow their HI plan again?
 
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encaser

Member
Passing time will make, in my mind, Gov's become more and more pragmatic.
It may be harsh to say, but I'd imagine the idea of herd immunity will be easier to sell as the lockdown progresses to instil greater annoyances for the public in social, economic and general living standards restrictions and threats.
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
I feel as if, during the period when the government was advising for everyone to go out and do whatever they'd normally do (festivals, gym, school but just wash your hands), the virus has potentially already spread far enough that we are really in the midst of the herd immunity plan.

The role of isolation retrospectively could end being just to slightly decrease the rate of hospital admissions.

I hope I'm wrong of course but I do have this gut feeling that our slow response might've ended up pushing it forwards.
 

Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
There's seems to be disagreements on whether the policies of some governments has contributed to the prolonging of the virus.
It'll be interesting to look back in retrospect at whether social distancing actually helped or hindered the effects on the population.
Sweden is conducting its own social experiment right now.
 

Tempest

Distinguished Member
Isn't this whole plan, nothing to do with stopping people getting the Virus.
It's presumed most will.
It's just to stop too many getting it at the same time to "Protect the NHS"

Once enough people have had it, then you let the public mix again, which will then start the spread up again for the next large wave to get the virus.

Then you need to decide do you go for a second lockdown when the number rise high.

Not seen anything from the government about stopping the spread. Just slowing it.
 

Skyfall74

Active Member
You'll never stop this virus spreading unless everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE, in the world stays in their homes for two weeks at the SAME time.

Clearly this can't happen.

I agree with everything you say, Tempest; namely that most will get it.

Though, I hope I'm one of the lucky ones who don't; the mortality rate and potential for permanent damage to lungs doesn't rest easy with me at all.

The ideal thing to happen to an individual is:

1) Avoid contracting virus.
2) Herd immunity kicks in, reducing transmission rate.
3) Obtain immunization jab quickly when they become available.

You manage all three, you will have done well.
 

Tempest

Distinguished Member
You'll never stop this virus spreading unless everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE, in the world stays in their homes for two weeks at the SAME time.

Clearly this can't happen.

I agree with everything you say, Tempest; namely that most will get it.

Though, I hope I'm one of the lucky ones who don't; the mortality rate and potential for permanent damage to lungs doesn't rest easy with me at all.

The ideal thing to happen to an individual is:

1) Avoid contracting virus.
2) Herd immunity kicks in, reducing transmission rate.
3) Obtain immunization jab quickly when they become available.

You manage all three, you will have done well.
It's just that all you need is one person with the virus, and it can/will spread across the country in weeks.
Given that, when people are let out, you will probably, without question have tens or perhaps hundreds of people with the virus out in the wild on day 1 of close social mixing, I would have imagined, number of infections would ramp up way way faster than they did initially.

Managing to always avoid it, and never come into contact with someone who has it, esp if you do mix quite a bit does feel like a long shot at the moment.

If you can be that lucky, and avoid it, till there is an immunization then you have done well I think.

I still don't feel the government are putting the honest message over:

Watch this for a few seconds from 5:33 to 5:53 (I have sent to link to play from the right spot)
IMHO two totally contradictory statements.


He states the Action Plan is to defeat the virus, then in his next breath our goal it's to slow the virus to protect the NHS so it can cope.

Those are not the same things.
 

Skyfall74

Active Member
Once the social distancing is lifted; yes, those who have the virus will spread it BUT only to those who HAVE NOT already had it.

Consequently, if enough people have already had it from first wave, that'll reduce the transmission rate - that's herd immunity.

I believe that's the government's plan, or hope?
 

Tempest

Distinguished Member
Once the social distancing is lifted; yes, those who have the virus will spread it BUT only to those who HAVE NOT already had it.

Consequently, if enough people have already had it from first wave, that'll reduce the transmission rate - that's herd immunity.

I believe that's the government's plan, or hope?
Well we have 61,000 confirmed cases in the UK so far.
(Have to bump this number up a fair bit I guess to allow for all those not yet officially counted)

And we have about 67,000,000 ( Sixty Seven Million ) people living in the UK.

So it's pretty clear, there is still a LOT of people for it infect yes before we get anywhere near "enough people have had it"
 

Skyfall74

Active Member
I think that 61,000 has to be bumped up a MASSIVE amount.

People who develop the symptoms have been told to self-isolate and NOT go to their GP; so probably many, if not most in these circumstances, will have had the virus and also spread it to others in their household.

In my workplace 1/3 ended up being off due to them or a family member having to self-isolate.

Only those who progressed to more serious symptoms (like Boris) will get tested and become a confirmed case (one of the counted 61,000).

Take Matt Hancock, Chris Witty and someone in Michael Gove's house. All likely have had the virus but are NOT counted as confirmed cases as they were never tested.

How many times over has this happened throughout the UK?

According to doctors, of those who contract the virus, most will only experience mild symptoms and some will even be asymptomatic, not realising they have it or have had it.

Also, did you see this tweet? I saw this on another thread.


It is perfectly plausible that millions in the UK could have had the virus, meaning successful Herd Immunity could be closer than we think.
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
Plausible but then surely then we’d have seen spikes in intensive care admissions all over the country, rather than in the hot spots we currently are right?
 

SteveAWOL

Distinguished Member
Sweden seems to be paying a high price compared to other Nordic nations with their herd immunity experiment but guess only time will tell whether it’s better in the long run...

1586387899248.jpeg

 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Given our late lockdown and the fact we haven't seen the NHS crippled and even higher death numbers, I think it's highly unlikely we've crossed the herd immunity bridge.

Or we've somehow got extremely lucky.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Well we have 61,000 confirmed cases in the UK so far.
(Have to bump this number up a fair bit I guess to allow for all those not yet officially counted)

And we have about 67,000,000 ( Sixty Seven Million ) people living in the UK.

So it's pretty clear, there is still a LOT of people for it infect yes before we get anywhere near "enough people have had it"
Those confirmed cases are only the ones recorded at hospitals as being tested.

There will be far more people in the UK who have had it and self isolated at home having no need to go to hospital.

In other words the stats say 8/10 infected people will have no need to go to hospital. That herd community built via self-isolation would eventually equate to 80% of the population.
 

Chocci

Member
Unfortunately, twasOTE="Skyfall74, post: 27914491, member: 775582"]
I think that 61,000 has to be bumped up a MASSIVE amount.

People who develop the symptoms have been told to self-isolate and NOT go to their GP; so probably many, if not most in these circumstances, will have had the virus and also spread it to others in their household.

In my workplace 1/3 ended up being off due to them or a family member having to self-isolate.

Only those who progressed to more serious symptoms (like Boris) will get tested and become a confirmed case (one of the counted 61,000).

Take Matt Hancock, Chris Witty and someone in Michael Gove's house. All likely have had the virus but are NOT counted as confirmed cases as they were never tested.

How many times over has this happened throughout the UK?

According to doctors, of those who contract the virus, most will only experience mild symptoms and some will even be asymptomatic, not realising they have it or have had it.

Also, did you see this tweet? I saw this on another thread.


It is perfectly plausible that millions in the UK could have had the virus, meaning successful Herd Immunity could be closer than we think.
[/QUOTE]
Unfortunately, that was fake news. The 40 tested positive for the virus so are now in isolation. There aren't reliable antibody tests yet but I feel you could multiply the 61000 cases by a factor of 50-100.
 

Skyfall74

Active Member
Unfortunately, that was fake news. The 40 tested positive for the virus so are now in isolation. There aren't reliable antibody tests yet but I feel you could multiply the 61000 cases by a factor of 50-100.
That's really unfortunate and worrying to hear that.

Can you give us the source of this information, Chocci?
 

Aj33

Distinguished Member
Given our late lockdown and the fact we haven't seen the NHS crippled and even higher death numbers, I think it's highly unlikely we've crossed the herd immunity bridge.

Or we've somehow got extremely lucky.
Or the government and their advisors have done a good job?!

oh and the majority of the British people?
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Unfortunately, that was fake news. The 40 tested positive for the virus so are now in isolation. There aren't reliable antibody tests yet but I feel you could multiply the 61000 cases by a factor of 50-100.
The actual number of infected cases are certainly far higher and could be significantly far higher than 50-100X that number


If that article and research is to be believed we are already significantly into the herd immunity cycle already. We are talking 30M+ people already
 

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