Future-proofing mind exercise for a coffee break...
We know that AVRs and AV processors are devices that are supposed to be future-proof, for at least 5-7 years, especially now, during the important transition to HDMI 2.1. We do not exchange those devices as frequently as mobile phones, so the topic is relevant for this thread.
Someone asked about increasing HDMI bandwidth, multi-ports on AVRs and trends. Here is a summary of what I found, after researching the trends across several tech and entertainment industries. I'd like to know what members think about it in relation to new AVRs being capable to deal with developments elsewhere and whether current offer is future-proof enough.
HDMI 2.1 has still not settled in properly and there are already legit questions about what's next. As for HDMI spec, minor additions of new quality features are common. It happened before. However, major change ("HDMI 3.0"), doubling the bandwidth to
96 Gbps (for 8K60 10/12-bit RGB) or tripling the bandwidth to
144 Gbps (for 8K120 10/12-bit) will not take place until 2025-2027. For this to happen, three features need a major push -
resolutions, bit depth and refresh rates. Each feature is currently being experimented with by individual companies with interesting results below. Plus, panel sizes will increase to above 100 inch too. Samsung showcased 110 inch mini-LED TV recently. No one will go to cinema anymore by 2030
Those features will eventually converge and emerge in commercial devices, requiring more than 48 Gbps, such as:
- 5K120 and 5K144 10-bit RGB monitors (2022; ~50-65 Gbps)
- 8K60 10/12-bit RGB TV panel (80-96 Gbps)
- 8K120 10/12-bit TV panel (128-144 Gbps)
Those numbers may look silly today, but four industries have been identified that would drive change in required bandwidth, both towards 48 Gbps and beyond it:
1. TV industry - (resolutions, bit depth and refresh rates)
- 8K60 10-bit TVs are gradually making a breakthrough into mainstream, from current ~2.7 million panels sold worldwide to tens of millions, projected in next 5-7 years. Asian households are major emerging market for those panels.
- Plus, new 12-bit panels. Hisense has released one already, so there are early birds of the trend. It will take a few years. Finally full scale Dolby Vision? Perhaps, but in gradual steps. First hurdle is DV 4K120 10-bit. Microsoft is now waiting for display companies to upgrade TVs for Dolby Vision 4K120 10-bit. LG stated they are working on the solution for 1 gen of TVs. So, all TVs supporting DV will be under pressure to move onto 4K120Hz 10-bit at least to stay competitive.
- Also, some TV companies will be pushing for 144 Hz refresh rates to attract the crowd of next gen of consoles or mid-cycle upgrade, such as "PS5-Pro" or "XboxX-Neo". None of those features will come in one package and in one go.
2. Next gen consoles and GPUs - will host new exciting tech features from AMD under the hood. AMD's Zen 4 CPUs (2022), new RDNA3 graphics and media engine (2022) will deliver stellar performance in 4K 144Hz domain and will be capable of doing that by outputting both 10 and 12-bit signal. This is currently in development on 5nm node and will find adaptation for new editions of consoles too. Displays will need to catch-up with image specs to allow for this to be played. We are looking at ~2023 for mid-cycle console upgrade, if one happens.
3. HDMI 2.1 dongles and 4K120 streaming services - upcoming Apple TV 4K is rumoured to be capable of 4K120 10-bit streaming. There are released patches of software pointing in this direction. There are broadcasters considering rolling out this service in some fast-paced sports, such as football and Formula 1. Apple is probably now in feasibility negotiations. Fast-paced live content (apart from games) will be a major drive for HDMI 2.1 adoption in dongles and online streaming. Both TVs and monitors will need to step-up the game for this to remain competitive with current capable displays.
4. PC industry - this one is very interesting, indeed. HDMI bandwidth revision may actually come sooner because of current developments in PC monitor market, rather than in TV market. Every single modern monitor on the planet has HDMI port. Upcoming monitors are rapidly closing the gap with TVs and will explode in popularity by adopting several features from TVs. New 42-inch monitor from Acer (
post #8) will require full speed of 48 Gbps. It hosts two HDMI 2.1 ports. It's a TV-like or
TV-centric panel, with conventional UHD 4K resolution of 3840x2160, 1000 nits (VESA Display HDR certified) and 144Hz. This monitor is fully capable of all 4K HDR streaming services via HDMI dongles or via web browser. Such monitors will become major competitors to TVs, as they are able to deliver several hybrid features that matter for TVs and PCs.
There are a dozen of upcoming monitors being tested and validated that will need 48 Gbps and more. 5K120 10-bit requires new DisplayPort 2.0 bandwidth of up to 77 Gbps. VESA's DP is ready for that. Those are not 8K displays, but regular 4K and 5K 10-bit displays with higher refresh rates, 120Hz and above. This is the point where HDMI 2.1 maximum bandwidth is not enough for monitors and latest HDMI ports are not useful anymore. It will start in 2022 with high-end professional panels. Once those monitors are out, HDMI Forum will need to look at creating a roadmap for "HDMI 3.0".
Competition with TV will be ferocious, as new monitors have also grown in size and offer UHD 4K image in sizes from 27 inch to whopping 55 inches. Also, OLED panels are being installed in new monitors. Check out new LG. This points in direction of high quality hybrid displays for all consumers tastes. TV vs. PC boundary will become ever more blurry, depending on how users consume video content. No one will be able to say anymore what connecting HDMI 2.1 monitor to AVR is irrelevant. It's not. It is AVRs that need to adapt to new monitor capabilities.
How do these industry trends link to new AVRs and AV processors? Where does this place upcoming AVRs with 40 Gbps ports? Those AVRs will, of course, penetrate mainstream market for several years, but companies are already realising that they really need to step up the game with third gen of HDMI 2.1 chips that will finally deliver full speed of 48 Gbps by 2023, if receivers are not to become bandwidth bottleneck in a few years. Next gen of receivers need to enable several new features apart from full port speed, such as 4K 144Hz pass-through for all TV-centric HDMI 2.1 monitors coming into the market this year already. Some of traditional TV crowd will find those new monitors really attractive for their home theatre needs.
Developments mentioned above are behind the decision to develop multi-port box for Denon AVRs. They have to, as they can see trends i different industries. So can we. They pay market trend companies to bring them analysis of things to come. I am not sure who advised them to adopt one speedy port and remain stubborn about it for long time? One single speedy port will not be able to deliver for growing number of consumers and devices coming into the market. It's blatantly obvious.
