French Politics

Sunday's polls, still putting Le Pen and Pécresse

France, OpinionWay/Kéa poll:

Macron (LREM-RE): 24%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 18%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 18%
Zemmour (REC-*): 11% (-1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10%
...

+/- vs. 11-14 January 2022
Fieldwork: 15-17 January 2022
Sample size: 1,577

1642429436664.png



France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

Macron (LREM-RE): 25% (-0.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 17% (+1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 16% (-0.5)
Zemmour (REC-*): 14%
...
+/- vs. 8-12 January 2022
Fieldwork: 10-13 January 2022
Sample size: 1,509

1642429601307.png



France, Elabe poll:
Presidential run-off election

Macron (LREM-RE): 50% (-1)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 50% (+1)
+/- vs. 17-20 December 2021
Fieldwork: 10-11 January 2022
Sample size: 1,356

1642429707475.png



Macron (LREM-RE): 54.5% (-2.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 45.5% (+2.5)
+/- vs. 17-20 December 2021
Fieldwork: 10-11 January 2022
Sample size: 1,356

1642429770727.png



France, Harris Interactive poll:
Presidential run-off election

Macron (LREM-RE): 52% (+1)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 48% (-1)
+/- vs. 28-31 December 2021
Fieldwork: 7-10 January 2022
Sample size: 2,124

1642429859714.png




Macron (LREM-RE): 55%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 45%
+/- vs. 28-31 December 2021
Fieldwork: 7-10 January 2022
Sample size: 2,124

1642429899906.png
 
Would be Presidential Candidate Eric Zemmour was found guilty today for "Incitement to hatred and violence". That's the third time

In an interview that took place in 2020 on CNews (A Rightwing News Channel) talking about some minors from Africa and the Middle East who arrive in France unaccompanied Zemmour described them thus;

"You, you think of these children who are suffering, I think of the women who are raped by these people, to the women who are murdered by these people, to the French people who are too brutalized and traumatized by these people. “

The Interviewer noted that "all unaccompanied minors are not necessarily rapists”

Zemmour replied "They don’t belong here, they are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that’s all they are. They should be sent back, they shouldn’t even come.”

He was sentenced to 100 days of €100 fines (i.e. €10,000) as well as Court Costs of €19,000

CNews have already been fined €200,000 by the CSA, the French Media Watchdog

 
The unfortunate timing of France holding the Presidency of the EU at the same time as the Presidential Elections meant that Macron today had to journey to Strasbourg to speak before the European Parliament to mark the start of the Presidency.

Macron's speech was fairly non Campaigning (though opinions vary) . calling for an urgent need for Europe to be bold so as the European Union asserts itself as a "power of the future" and "sovereign" so as to not "depend on others powers" and "build a new security order".

He also called for "right to abortion to be included in the Charter of Fundamental Rights" which must have gone down well with the newly elected President of the Parliament, Roberta Metsola, who is an an avowed anti-abortionist.

As is traditional following the speech from the new Head of the EU Presidency the leaders of the various Parliamentary Groups get to question the Head of State. Probably one of the few times that Parliamentarians get to do so and the Presidential Campaign dominated/

Manfred Weber is a German MEP who leads the European People's Party Group in the Parliament used his questioning to support the campaign of Pécresse. The French Republicans are a member of the EPP.

Yannick Jadot is running in the Presidential race as the Ecology Candidate but also sits as an MEP in the Green Group and basically gave a 10 minute speech for his Presidential Bid.

Other French MEPs also got a kick in for their preferred groups in the Presidential Race. Jordan Bardella, a member of the Far Right, accused Macron of turning Europe into the "backyard of Washington" and how Le Pen would restore Europe. Manon Aubry, an MEP of the Far Left, accused Macron of being "arrogant, powerless and plotting"

 
A third member of Le Pen's team defects to Zemmour's

The latest is Gilbert Collard, an MEP (formerly?) representing National Rally in Strasbourg. He joins another of Le Pen's MEPs, Jerome Riviera, and Damien Rieu a National Rally official.


There is speculation that Zemmour will soon receive the support of Marion Marshall, Le Pen's Niece
 
What if they held a Primary and no candidates showed up ?

With no candidate from the Left registering more than 10% support it seems almost impossible that anyone remotely Left will make it through to the Second Round. Many of the Left are scoring less than 5% (even Anne Hidalgo) which means that their elections expenses will not be reimbursed by the State after the elections.

One reason is that there are around six candidates running with some affiliation to the Left. If they could all get behind one candidate then they would get around 18% of the vote and have a good chance of a Leftwing candidate making it into the second round.

Thus was the "Popular Primary" born, an online vote, to be held between Jan 27th and Jan 30th with the aim to select one candidate the Left could get behind. The others would drop out, encourage Parrains to nominate this candidate and donations would go to this one candidate. Left wing support would unite behind this candidate and provide a united front across all Social Media instead of spending most of the time battling people who should be their allies.

Unfortunately the idea hit the skids almost immediately with Jean Luc Mélenchon and Ecology Candidate Yannick Jadot (the biggest Left Wing Candidates with 11% and 6% respectively) saying they would not take part.

Over Xmas Anne Hidalgo toyed with the idea of running but eventually declined while Christiane Taubira (Justice Minister under Hollande) said she would run if she emerged the victor but eventually announced she was running anyway.

So the Popular Primary goes into this week with no-one actually taking part. But as of yesterday it announced it had 467,000 members wishing to vote and on Thursday a hundred celebrities urged candidates to take part in the Primary.

But so far, no-one appears to have said they wish to run in the Primary. Thus the Primary is running with or without the permission of the candidates and will on Sunday will announce whom their membership have chosen.

Mélenchon, Yannick and Hidalgo have all demanded that their names been removed from the voting especially following the leaking of a video from last November with one of the organizers, Samuel Grzybowski, saying how the Primary would hope to prevent "Anne Hidalgo, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Arnaud Montebourg and Yannick Jadot from getting the 500 Signatures" and put pressure on them to drop out by encouraging would-be Parrains to support only the candidate selected by the Primary and lowering their popularity ratings on Social Networks.

The Popular Primary is thus looking not to be as clean as it once aspired to be. Thus Grzybowski wrote an open letter to L'Obs magazine.

Dear Anne Hidalgo,
Dear Yannick Jadot,
Dear Jean-Luc Melenchon,
Dear Christiane Taubira,

No, you are not our enemies. Yes, we want the victory of ecology and social justice. Yes, we wish your victory.

For more than a year, everywhere in France, we have organized ourselves, we have marched, we towed, we have met all of you, we have even held sit-ins in front of your parties to challenge you.

With the popular Primary, it is the first time that a citizens' movement has entered the political arena to such an extent. The first time that a citizens' movement has offered to organize a decision-making process for the presidential election on its own. The first time that a citizens' movement has brought together 300,000 people on an electoral issue. The first time that a citizens' movement will campaign without being a political party. The first time that a citizens' movement will support a presidential candidate without being part of his team.

Why ? Because we know we have no choice. In 2027 it will be too late. Too late for ecology and for young people, too late for carers, farmers and teachers, too late for people who are discriminated against and women victims of violence. In short, too late for those who struggle on a daily basis and who worry about their future and that of their children. We want our lives to change now.

Who are we? Young people, and not so young people too, who still believe that politics can concretely change our lives , despite our disappointments and sometimes even our disgust. We are your most loyal voters. We have led a number of battles by your side: for the climate, for pensions, against the reform of unemployment insurance... Since we have had the right to vote, we have supported "rebellious" candidates from the first rounds. , ecologists or socialists.

So yes, we talk to you about gathering all day and you must be fed up. It is not for pleasure that we do it and that we end up having to put pressure on you as on the dynamics in the polls or even the sponsorships, by supporting the approach of elected officials who freeze these sponsorships as long as the conditions for the gathering are not met. Let's be honest: if we hadn't, would you have even for a moment paid attention to our call? Or, on the contrary, would we have ended up in the cemetery of the initiatives that you describe as “care bears” , utopians or even “citizenists” ?

As you know, alongside a powerful mobilization force and an ambitious and coherent project, unity is an essential ingredient for winning this election. We don't want “the gathering for the sake of the gathering” . Nor “unity for unity” . We want to unite to win. And you know, this gathering cannot be reduced to the adage “the gathering yes, but behind me” .

If our strategy is not the right one, then offer us an alternative.

For months, we have said publicly and repeatedly that if you could find a path without us to a gathering capable of creating a winning momentum, we would stop everything and applaud wholeheartedly. Each in your own way, you tried: Jean-Luc, when you proposed a “popular federation” to bring together the left and environmentalists; Yannick, when you organized a conclave with various leaders of the left and environmentalists last April; Anne, when you proposed a primary from the left; Christiane, when you announced that you recognized a priori the verdict of the popular Primary vote.

But none of these attempts are enough to win today.

So what do we do ? We stop everything, we go home, we watch you beat yourself up while ecology and social justice fall by the wayside from the debates of this presidential election,
at the risk of coming to swell the ranks of abstainers next April? And what will we do on the evening of the first round? Will we rewatch the film of everything we could have done to prevent this?

Today, we are more than 320,000 people registered to vote in the popular Primary. More than double the voters in the primary of one of our real opponents: the right.

So why don't you let us, your voters, be the justice of the peace between you?

Since our launch a year and a half ago, if we listened to the rumours, one day we would be a bunch of climate activists worthy of Greta Thunberg, the next day the only ones capable of allowing Mélenchon to establish his candidacy definitively and find the hundreds of thousands of votes that he missed in 2017, two days later the saviors of the PS and Hidalgo. Today, according to rumors, we are the launching pad for Taubira. While the rumors are rife, we continue on our way.

From small villages in the depths of France to working-class neighborhoods via large cities, we are here, ready to put our mobilization force at your service, at the service of the victory of ecology, social justice and a true democracy.

Today, you are all 4 presidential candidates, and in all probability we will campaign for one or one of you from January 31st. Not only by membership, nor "by default" , but because we are afraid for our future and we want to see you govern together with all the political forces defending ecology and social justice.

On each election night, we cry about the abstention rate. We are looking for a miracle cure and we are asking citizens to return to the polls and get involved. Today, we dare something new. At worst, it works! For you and for us!

Samuel Grzybowski (Spokesperson for the Popular Primary) and Mathilde Imer (Spokesperson for the Popular Primary)
 
A round up of the weeks polls shows there's still no indicator as to whether it will be Le Pen or Pécresse going into the Second Round with Macron.

The Cluster17 Poll puts Zemmour at 14% level with Pécresse but Le Pen ahead on 15%

France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:
Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 24.5% (-1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 18% (+0.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 16.5%
Zemmour (REC-*): 12%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10.5% (+0.5)
...
+/- vs. 18-21 January 2022
Fieldwork: 20-24 January 2022 Sample size: 1,507

1643294705128.png



France, Cluster 17 poll:
Presidential election
Macron (LREM-RE): 22% (-0.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 15% (+0.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 14% (+1)
Zemmour (REC-*): 14%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 13% (+0.5)
...
+/- vs. 11-15 January 2022
Fieldwork: 18-22 January 2022 Sample size: 2,548

1643294899881.png


France, Harris Interactive poll:
Presidential election
Macron (LREM-RE): 24% (-1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 15% (-1)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14%
...
+/- vs. 14-17 January 2022
Fieldwork: 21-24 January 2022
Sample size: 2,037

1643295077704.png


Macron still looks to comfortably win the Presidency against either Le Pen or Pécresse. Pécresse's attempts to woo the Right seems to be losing her votes from the Centre and Left


1643295308841.png



1643295337565.png
 
Marion Maréchal, Le Pen's neice, on Thursday was saying to Le Parisien that she was thinking of supporting Zemmour. A day later in Le Figaro she's now tilting for Zemmour citing his coherence, vision, strategy.

And goes on to say

“Eric Zemmour is fighting for the disappearance of the buffer zone between the so-called “ republican” right and us . Marine Le Pen has never been for the disappearance of this line of demarcation. She just wants to succeed in getting on the right side."
...
"“I don’t know who is best placed. The campaign is still long. Eric Zemmour has a greater margin of progression among the working classes and abstentionists than Marine Le Pen among the upper classes, ”

After a five year absence from politics, it seems Maréchal is planning a return as in La Parisien she said that if she was to fully endorse "Eric: it would not be to just pop her head out to say "hello".
 
Former Justice Minster Christiane Taubira won the Popular Primary and is now demanding that other candidates for the Left vote drop out, even though they refused to take part in the Primary.

As of Sunday evening 392,000 had voted and voted Taubira first, followed by Ecology candidate Yannick Jadot, then Mélenchon and Hidalgo taking fifth place.

Even before the results were announced Taubira was calling on the other Left Wing candidates to respect the result. This Morning She took to Twitter bemoaning the "lack of respect" that Left Wing candidates are paying to the result. Saying that had she come in second then she would have stepped down in favour of the winning candidate.

Jean-Marie Le Pen has said he will support his daughter in the election even though he had "sympathy" for Zemmour.

Sunday marked the 10 weeks until the election and Constitutional Cogs began to turn, Midweek Macron signed the bill calling for the elections to be held on Sunday April 10th and the second round to be run on April 24th.

In response the Court of the Constitution announced that it was now accepting parrainages. Candidates now have five weeks to get at least 500 signatures in order to qualify.

France
OpinionWay/Kéa poll:
Presidential election
Macron (LREM-RE): 24%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 17%
Zemmour (REC-NI): 13%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (+1)
...
+/- vs. 25-28 January 2022
Fieldwork: 28-31 January 2022
Sample size: 1,655

1643639312065.png
 
The Constitutional Council are now accepting Presidential Sponsorships and will continue to do so until March 4th at 6pm. Any would-be candidate has until then to amass 500 signatures

Twice a week it will now publish the details of those sponsorship forms that have been received and verified. Currently signatures have to be sent by letter until a digital signature system is rolled out across the whole government infrastructure.

Even though Macron has yet to commit to the running in the election he's already accumulating sponsorships.

The French elections, where we have 4 Trotskyites standing for election but ultimately two Right Wing candidates will battle it out in the second round :)

  • Emmanuel Macron , outgoing President of the Republic (not yet a declared candidate), supported by La République en Marche, received  105 sponsorships .
  • Anne Hidalgo , candidate of the Socialist Party, collected 48 sponsorships .
  • Fabien Roussel, candidate of the French Communist Party, collected 30 sponsorships .
  • Valérie Pécresse , Republican candidate, received 34 sponsorships .
  • Jean Lassalle , centrist candidate, obtained 15 sponsorships.
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon , candidate of La France insoumise, obtained 14 sponsorships .
  • Eric Zemmour, Reconquest candidate! got 14 sponsorships .
  • Nathalie Arthaud , Lutte Ouvrière candidate, obtained 12 sponsorships .
  • Yannick Jadot, candidate for Europe-Ecologie-Les Verts, received 11 sponsorships .
  • François Asselineau, candidate of the Republican People's Union, gathered 10 sponsorships .
  • Nicolas Dupont Aignan , candidate of Debout la France, collected 10 sponsorships.
  • Philippe Poutou , candidate of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, collected 4 sponsorships .
  • Marine Le Pen , candidate for the National Assembly, collected 2 sponsorships .
  • Hélène Thouy , candidate for the animalist party, obtained 2 sponsorships.
  • Anasse Kazib, candidate for Permanent Revolution, collected 1 sponsorship .
  • Georges Kuzmanovic, candidate for the Sovereign Republic, obtained 1 sponsorship.
  • Christiane Taubira, candidate supported by the Popular Primary, collected 0 sponsorship .
  • Florian Philippot , candidate of the party Les patriotes, collected 0 sponsorship .

Details of who sponsored who are available on the Council's website enabling you to see which officials in your Commune/Departément/Region voted for who

 
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In 2014, Le Pen borrowed money from Russia to fund her campaign. Today it was revealed that she's received a €10.6 million loan from a Hungarian Bank. The Party is still repaying the Russian loan

In September 2021, Le Pen wrote a letter to Macron on the difficulties in financing a campaign, noting that laws enacted in 2017 prevented candidates from borrowing money from non EU sources and had urged Macron to come up with new methods of financing campaigns

In 2017, Le Pen borrowed €6 million from her Father's bank and €8 million from a French businessman.


France, Elabe poll:
Presidential election
Macron (LREM-RE): 25% (+1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 16.5%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 16% (-1)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 12.5% (+1)
... +
/- vs. 24-26 January 2022
Fieldwork: 31 January-2 February 2022
Sample size: 1,508

1643822729402.png



France, Harris Interactive poll:
Presidential election
Macron (LREM-RE): 24%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 15%
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 11% (+1)
...
+/- vs. 14-17 January
Fieldwork: 21-24 January 2022
Sample size: 2,037

1643822884817.png


France, Cluster 17 poll:
Presidential election
Macron (LREM-RE): 22.5% (+0.5)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 14.5% (-0.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 14%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 13%
...
+/- vs. 18-22 January 2022
Fieldwork: 25-29 January 2022
Sample size: 1,997

1643823014700.png


Cluster seem to rate Zemmour and Mélenchon's vote share much higher than anyone else
 
The Constitutional Council are now accepting Presidential Sponsorships and will continue to do so until March 4th at 6pm. Any would-be candidate has until then to amass 500 signatures

Twice a week it will now publish the details of those sponsorship forms that have been received and verified. Currently signatures have to be sent by letter until a digital signature system is rolled out across the whole government infrastructure.

Even though Macron has yet to commit to the running in the election he's already accumulating sponsorships.

The French elections, where we have 4 Trotskyites standing for election but ultimately two Right Wing candidates will battle it out in the second round :)

  • Emmanuel Macron , outgoing President of the Republic (not yet a declared candidate), supported by La République en Marche, received  105 sponsorships .
  • Anne Hidalgo , candidate of the Socialist Party, collected 48 sponsorships .
  • Fabien Roussel, candidate of the French Communist Party, collected 30 sponsorships .
  • Valérie Pécresse , Republican candidate, received 34 sponsorships .
  • Jean Lassalle , centrist candidate, obtained 15 sponsorships.
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon , candidate of La France insoumise, obtained 14 sponsorships .
  • Eric Zemmour, Reconquest candidate! got 14 sponsorships .
  • Nathalie Arthaud , Lutte Ouvrière candidate, obtained 12 sponsorships .
  • Yannick Jadot, candidate for Europe-Ecologie-Les Verts, received 11 sponsorships .
  • François Asselineau, candidate of the Republican People's Union, gathered 10 sponsorships .
  • Nicolas Dupont Aignan , candidate of Debout la France, collected 10 sponsorships.
  • Philippe Poutou , candidate of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, collected 4 sponsorships .
  • Marine Le Pen , candidate for the National Assembly, collected 2 sponsorships .
  • Hélène Thouy , candidate for the animalist party, obtained 2 sponsorships.
  • Anasse Kazib, candidate for Permanent Revolution, collected 1 sponsorship .
  • Georges Kuzmanovic, candidate for the Sovereign Republic, obtained 1 sponsorship.
  • Christiane Taubira, candidate supported by the Popular Primary, collected 0 sponsorship .
  • Florian Philippot , candidate of the party Les patriotes, collected 0 sponsorship .

Details of who sponsored who are available on the Council's website enabling you to see which officials in your Commune/Departément/Region voted for who


After the collapse of the left and centre right opposition during the 2017 elections, the establishment types and liberals are probably desperate to get their puppet Macron in the running again in case they have to hide behind him to see off any populist parties they deem undesirable in the second round run offs, like they ended up doing last time.

God forbid the people should elect the wrong party.

Thanks Laureline for keeping up this thread by the way. It is a most excellent read, and a great way of keeping up with the political manoeuvres over there.
 
The Constitutional Council updated the number of Signatures it has received and though he has yet to announce that he's running Macron is the first Candidate to qualify for the election having surpassed the 500 signatures requirement

As Macron shows you don't need to declare your candidacy, so we have someone nominating Barnier even though he lost the Republican Primary and someone else has voted for (presumably) Dr. Arnaud Chiche a (self appointed) spokesperson on the state of French hospitals.

They joys of the a Public list of Signatures it appears that the Mayor of Neuvilly, Ludovic Havart voted for Chiche and the Mayor of Saint-Étienne-de-Lugdarès, Françoise Benoit voted for Barnier

As of Thursday, February 3, 2022 , seven days after the opening of sponsorship deposits, 2,069 sponsorships have been deposited in total. Here is the state of progress of the signatures granted by the elected officials to the candidates for the presidential election, in descending order:

Emmanuel Macron , outgoing President of the Republic (not yet declared a candidate), supported by La République en Marche, received  529 sponsorships .
Valérie Pécresse , Republican candidate, received 324 sponsorships .
Anne Hidalgo , candidate of the Socialist Party, collected 266 sponsorships .
Fabien Roussel , candidate for the French Communist Party, garnered 159 sponsorships .
Nathalie Arthaud , Lutte Ouvrière candidate, obtained 138 sponsorships .
Jean Lassalle , centrist candidate, obtained 124 sponsorships.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
, candidate of La France insoumise, obtained 100 sponsorships .
Yannick Jadot, candidate for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, received 80 sponsorships .
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan , candidate of Debout la France, collected 77 sponsorships.
Eric Zemmour
, Reconquest candidate! got 58 sponsorships .
François Asselineau , candidate of the Republican People's Union, gathered 56 sponsorships .
Philippe Poutou , candidate of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, collected 54 sponsorships .
Marine Le Pen , candidate of the National Rally, collected 35 sponsorships .
Hélène Thouy , candidate for the Animalist Party, obtained 22 sponsorships.
Anasse Kazib
Permanent Revolution garnered 21 sponsorships .
Georges Kuzmanovic, Sovereign Republic candidate, obtained 9 sponsorships.
Christiane Taubira,
candidate supported by the Popular Primary and the Radical Left Party, collected 8 sponsorships .
Clara Egger , Hope RIC candidate, collected 3 sponsorships .
Gaspard Koenig , candidate of Simple, collected 2 sponsorships .
Nicolas Miguet , candidate of Repair France, collected 2 sponsorships .
Michel Barnier , not yet declared a candidate, received 1 sponsorship .
Arnaud Chiche , not yet declared a candidate, received 1 sponsorship .
 
Macron is refusing to announce his candidacy saying that he has more important things to deal with at the moment (Covid & Ukraine) and feels that they're more important than Campaigning

Recently he's been saying

“We have a health and energy crisis, threats of war at the gates of Europe… It would not be serious to imagine that the president is not devoting himself to this as a priority”,

“I cannot reasonably explain to the French that I will indulge in this important democratic time, when I told them that I would be president until the end and that we have a crisis on the Ukrainian border which threatens our collective security. “


The opposition are not impressed noting that Macron is in semi-state of campaigning but using the State to pay for it. The Head of the Republicans called it "not far from the embezzlement of public funds" while the Republican President of the Senate said “The president will not be able to hide forever like a masked candidate”
 
Despite all the freedom protests going on in the streets, I see from a video on my telegram feed that Eric Zemmour's rally/meeting yesterday in Lille, (sur la pouvoir d'achat) was mobbed by 'Anti Fascist' protesters in the streets who eventually had to be broken up and arrested by riot police.

In the youtube video that has now been posted of the Zemmour meeting I see one of the speakers they wheeled out is Jacline Mouraud, heroine of the yellow vest movement pointing out how split the vote on the right is. Zemmour's recent RN defector Maxette Pirbakas also made an appearance.
 
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We're into the second week of Signature collections and Pécresse and Hidalgo get the 500 signatures and so qualify for the election

Signatures have to be in by 6pm March 4th

Presidential: sponsorships received by February 8, 2022 by candidate​

As of Tuesday, February 8, 2022 , 5,086 sponsorships have been submitted.
Here is the state of progress of the signatures granted by the elected officials to the candidates for the presidential election, in descending order:
  • Valérie Pécresse , Republican candidate, received 939 sponsorships .
  • Emmanuel Macron , outgoing President of the Republic (not yet declared a candidate), supported by La République en Marche, collected  926 sponsorships
  • Anne Hidalgo , candidate of the Socialist Party, collected 652 sponsorships .
  • Nathalie Arthaud , Lutte Ouvrière candidate, obtained 368 sponsorships .
  • Fabien Roussel , candidate for the French Communist Party, garnered 326 sponsorships .
  • Jean Lassalle , centrist candidate, obtained 316 sponsorships .
  • Yannick Jadot, candidate for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, received 268 sponsorships .
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan , candidate of Debout la France, collected 232 sponsorships .
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon , candidate of La France insoumise, obtained 224 sponsorships .
  • François Asselineau , candidate of the Republican People's Union, gathered 171 sponsorships .
  • Eric Zemmour , candidate for Reconquête!, obtained 149 sponsorships .
  • Marine Le Pen , candidate of the National Rally, collected 139 sponsorships .
  • Philippe Poutou , candidate of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, collected 127 sponsorships .
  • Anasse Kazib Permanent Revolution candidate garnered 84 sponsorships .
  • Hélène Thouy , candidate for the Animalist Party, obtained 48 sponsorships.
  • Christiane Taubira, a candidate supported by the Popular Primary and the Radical Left Party, collected 36 sponsorships .
  • Georges Kuzmanovic, Sovereign Republic candidate, obtained 25 sponsorships .
  • Gaspard Koenig , candidate of Simple, collected 23 sponsorships .
  • Nicolas Miguet , candidate of Réparer la France, collected 9 sponsorships .
  • Clara Egger , Hope RIC candidate, collected 6 sponsorships .
There are 8 candidates who've received one or two votes. Most didn't stand and a couple of odd balls are saying they're standing and have persuaded their local Mayor to sponsor them.
 
Ecology Candidate Yannick Jadot says that he had spoken with former Justice Minister, Christiane Taubira (the candidate who won the People's Primary last week) about possibly sharing a tour around France and though it's not an end to either's campaign it would perhaps share the cost of campaigning.

It's also hoped that a few of the other Left Wing candidates may join the tour.

France, Cluster 17 poll:
Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 23% (+0.5)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 15.5% (+1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 15.5% (+1)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 13.5% (-0.5)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 13%
... +
/- vs. 25-29 January 2022
Fieldwork: 1-5 February 2022
Sample size: 2,204

1644351323057.png


France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

Macron (LREM-RE): 25% (-0.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17.5% (-0.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 15.5% (+0.5)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14.5% (+1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10%
...
+/- vs. 1-4 February 2022
Fieldwork: 3-7 Feb. 2022
Sample size: 1,503

1644351622407.png


France, OpinionWay/Kéa poll:
Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 24%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 17% (+1)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 9% (-1)
...
+/- vs. 28-31 January
Fieldwork: 4-7 February 2022
Sample size: 1,630

1644351750050.png

France, Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll:
Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 24% (-1.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 16.5% (+0.5)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14% (+2)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 14% (-3)
...
+/- vs. 5-6 January 2022
Fieldwork: 1-3 February 2022
Sample size: 1,535

1644351992608.png
 
Pécresse's Campaign Team were hoping that an endorsement from Sarkozy, the last Republican President, would help boost her foundering campaign.

But at the moment he's staying quiet, refusing to appear onstage with her. Instead preferring to accept invitations to visit the Élysée Palace from Macron who praises the former President with an eye to appealing to the Centrist Republicans

 
Macron is still not officially running but has announced that he's ordered another six new Nuclear Reactors with the first coming on stream in 2035. He's also ordered studies for a further 8 reactors and is extending the life-span of existing reactors.

In a speech in Belfort he was saying that future France in a world of electric vehicles would need far more electricity than France could already deliver.

At the same time he announced France's Solar Electricity generation would increase by 10x the current amount by 2050 producing 100 gigawatts also by 2050 a further 50 windfarms producing around 40 gigawatts

Yannick Jadot, the Ecology candidate, was speaking to an audience in Montpellier when he heard of Macron's announcement and called out Macron for "over investing in nuclear power. When you have €17 billion of additional cost, the lesson is not to stop, it is to do six or ten

Zemmour is calling for Europe to build a wall around its landborders and that the EU should fund the wall/fence that Poland is currently constructing on its border with Belarus.

In a recent poll 68% of French respondents think that Macron should commit to the Presidency now. 71% believe he's running a clandestine campaign.

Yesterday Pécresse saw one of her Campaign team, former Minister in the Sarkozy government and Regional Director for Oese Eric Woerth, go over to the Macron camp.

Today her campaign has been overshadowed by squabblings in her supporters.

Last night on French TV the Republican Mayor of the Paris 7th Arronidissemont, Rachida Dati criticized Pécresse's Campaign Manager, Patrick Stefanin, for a limp start to the campaign. This received a stinging rebuke from him this morning reminding everyone that she was a failed candidate for the Mayor of Paris and would "not take any advice from losers" which in turn got an angry reply from Dati noting that he had led many failed Presidential Campaigns.

No one else managed to get over the 500 sponsorships mark but the Trotskyist Communist Party are getting close.

Presidential: sponsorships received by February 10, 2022 by candidate
As of Thursday February 10th, 2022
, 6,225 sponsorships have been submitted.
Here is the state of progress of the signatures granted by the elected officials to the candidates for the presidential election, in descending order:
  • Valérie Pécresse , Republican candidate, received 1,249 sponsorships .
  • Emmanuel Macron , outgoing President of the Republic (not yet declared a candidate), supported by La République en Marche, collected  1,050 sponsorships
  • Anne Hidalgo , candidate of the Socialist Party, collected 790 sponsorships .
  • Nathalie Arthaud , Lutte Ouvrière candidate, obtained 419 sponsorships .
  • Jean Lassalle , centrist candidate, obtained 382 sponsorships .
  • Fabien Roussel , candidate for the French Communist Party, garnered 381 sponsorships .
  • Yannick Jadot, candidate for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, received 325 sponsorships .
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan , candidate of Debout la France, collected 280 sponsorships .
  • Marine Le Pen , candidate of the National Rally, collected 274 sponsorships .
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon , candidate of La France insoumise, obtained 258 sponsorships .
  • François Asselineau , candidate of the Republican People's Union, gathered 193 sponsorships .
  • Eric Zemmour , candidate for Reconquête!, obtained 181 sponsorships .
  • Philippe Poutou , candidate of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, collected 146 sponsorships .
  • Anasse Kazib Permanent Revolution candidate garnered 99 sponsorships .
  • Hélène Thouy , candidate for the Animalist Party, obtained 56 sponsorships.
  • Christiane Taubira, a candidate supported by the Popular Primary and the Radical Left Party, collected 47 sponsorships .
  • Georges Kuzmanovic, Sovereign Republic candidate, obtained 27 sponsorships .
  • Gaspard Koenig , candidate of Simple, collected 27 sponsorships .
  • Nicolas Miguet , candidate of Réparer la France, collected 9 sponsorships .
  • Clara Egger , Hope RIC candidate, collected 6 sponsorships .
 
Cost of Living is the thing most concerning French voters at the moment

In a monthly survey of things that matter to French voters, the cost of living now concerns 52% of voters. a month ago it was 44% and in December 40%

The other things that concern them Healthcare is 30% , Climate Change 29%, and Immigration is in 4th place with 28%

1644601974352.png


In the survey of attitudes to the candidates, Macron is regarded as a "Statesman" (60%) and 57% believe he portrays France in a positive light overseas. 23% of the population believe that Macron understands the problems of "people like us"

41% of the public think Pécresse would give a good image of France abroad and 43% believe she would be a populist leader. Only 28% believe Pécresse understands the problems of "people like us".

58% of the population believe that Le Pen would change things but 53% are worried about her time as President. Also 53% believe she would be populist leader. 42% of the population do believe that Le Pen understands the problems of "people like us"

Zemmour has 63% of the Nation worried about his time in power but 53% believe he would be a populist leader. Only 23% believe he would be a "good" President. 33% believe he understands the problems of "people like us"

Mélenchon, 52% believe he'd be a populist leader, 55% are worried about what he'd do if he were President but only 5% believe that he'll make it to the second round and win the election.
 
Why is Macron keeping his powder dry? What does he gain from putting off declaring himself as a candidate?
 
It enables him to govern in a manner that gains him favour with the electorate, whilst claiming to not be campaigning. He has, after all, not declared his candidacy.
 
It enables him to govern in a manner that gains him favour with the electorate, whilst claiming to not be campaigning. He has, after all, not declared his candidacy.

It's a bit of a grey area, France has strict limits on the amount you can spend campaigning in the first round (€16.8million). Anyone who gets 5% or higher of the vote gets half their expenses paid by the State. T Delhose who get less only get upto €800k.

French media have to give airtime to both candidates and potential candidates. Though the amount of air-time is based on how well the candidate is polling and with Macron he has the advantage that things he says as President don't count in the airtime totals.

So it's likely that by not declaring he's avoiding the spending limits, but he still has to be careful. Sarkozy going for his second term announced he was running two months ahead but still got fined by the Election Authority for holding a rally in Nice just before he announced.

So Macron can avoid spending limits provided he's not too overt with his campaigning
 
Valérie Pécresse attempted to revive her stalling campaign over the weekend with her first major campaign in Paris

However it doesn't seem to have gone down well with many Critics accusing her have taken on the language of the Far Right with talk of the "Great Replacement Theory" threatening France, something regularly espoused by Zemmour

“In ten years, will we still be the seventh power in the world? Will we still be a sovereign nation or an auxiliary of the United States, a counter of China? Will we be a united nation or a fragmented nation? Faced with these vital questions, there is no fatality. Neither the "big replacement" nor the "big downgrade".


Monday's Interviews saw her saying that she'd not claimed the French were in danger of being replaced. Saying that she'd dismissed the comments about Replacement more than ten-times and her critics had the memory of "periwinkles"

Other Republicans also were dispatched to say that she had indeed not talked about Replacement of the French Culture. Even Barnier was wheeled out to deny that she had only talked about Replacement in-order to say she was against it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/84cea6fa-8cf4-11ec-ab9b-59af3878ddff?shareToken=59b75932eeb0c62c34fd14eccbad610c

One nice thing about France's overseas territories being départements of France means that Anne Hidalgo has spent 4-days in Martinique campaigning

She took time out to comment on Pécresse's comments
I say it from Martinique, the land of Aimé Césaire, who carried this message of tolerance and recognition of the identity of the other, not to be afraid of it but to make it a collective force


Christine Taubira noted upon hearing Pécresse's comments that "The Far Right now have 3 candidates"

Christine Taubira is struggling to find the 500 Signatures to take into the first round and lost the backing of the Radical Left Party (The only Party that supported her) noting that though it "welcomed the momentum that she had brought that is so often lacking around a candidacy of the Left " they felt their mandate was insufficiently in stride with hers and could not support her.
 

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