Discussing the impact of Brexit

Has, and is Brexit continuing to make life and many things harder, and people poorer in the UK?

  • Yes.

    Votes: 39 78.0%
  • No.

    Votes: 11 22.0%

  • Total voters
    50

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
You know from our previous chat I'm about democracy, not in/out. If its not working then UK/EU need to work thing out, or another party put a proposition to electorate to change or re-join in some way if EU would even let us back in, and way, way to early for that.

In here it often makes me think of armchair football managers with all the armchair political experts that think they know best :D
I don’t think anyone knows best, they’re just commenting from the sidelines about what is publicly visible.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
That's him. Remainers took piss as he was going back to Netherlands so "rat leaving sinking Brexit ship", even though he'd said before he was going back home, even before the vote if I recall.
To be fair, he also said himself that some of the outcomes of Brexit weren’t as positive as he’d hoped.
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
To be fair, he also said himself that some of the outcomes of Brexit weren’t as positive as he’d hoped.
Totally agree, we only have control* of one side of the agreement. Disruption with one ex-member even though a large trading partner is less important than derailing the EU's drive to be USofE.

Will be interesting to see if other countries look to leave over coming years or do get enough numbers to change it from within.

*Yes, some will say Boris has no control.
 

Diana Fire

Active Member
What difference do you think it would have made if the red bus had used the net contribution rather than the gross?
According to Cummings' analysis at the time (iirc, a few months post-ref), he used a variety of figures online and measured how effective they were. He was also upfront about the figure not being accurate and believed it didn't matter, but at the same time optimised those ads which used the £350m figure because it resonated best with the audience.

In effect, he didn't care that it wasn't accurate and used it because he had proof it worked better for a section of the audience. (That's in terms of clicks/conversions and whatnot, so it did make a difference on the dashboard.)

As I was reading that part of the blog, I couldn't fault his strategy (including overriding Gove's 'Global Britain' and replacing it with 'Take back control', because that means more to Joe/Jo Public), just that it was nowhere near legal, decent, honest or true. I learned around the same time that ASA has no governance over political ads so they can pretty much say what they want.
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
Haven’t you just described membership of the SM and CU?

There’s no way in this world that the EU will drop all checks on goods/foods coming into the EU from a Third Country, it’s one of the major benefits of membership.

Maybe I have, it so what, I was answering the question below and was not aware of any limitations to my answer. I assume it is a given that that my response only relates to goods entering NI from GB.


Yes but in what way? What has to change and how will that be compatible with the Brexit the government promised?
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
Maybe I have, it so what, I was answering the question below and was not aware of any limitations to my answer. I assume it is a given that that my response only relates to goods entering NI from GB.
I wasn’t suggesting there were any limitations on what you think a renegotiation of the NIP could bring, I was just responding to say that it’s likely not going to happen.

Goods entering NI from GB require checks (as we agreed), as there is then the possibility/likelihood that they could then move on to ROI, hence entering the EU indirectly.
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
Ok, we will remove the requirement all checks on food/goods going into NI, if you accept FOM for EU Nationals again”.

Would you be willing to accept that in return for frictionless trade again?

I’d be happy if they changed that as per belowI.

“Ok, we will remove the requirement all checks on food/goods going into NI, if you accept FOM for RNI Nationals again”.

Above, Seams reasonable as we are only talking about Freedom of goods into RNI and then reciprocate with FOM for RNI Nationals. I think extending it to all of EU is stupid idea given we are only talking about goods into 1 EU member. Glad your not at the negotiating table. Even BoJo is better than you.
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
I wasn’t suggesting there were any limitations on what you think a renegotiation of the NIP could bring, I was just responding to say that it’s likely not going to happen.

Goods entering NI from GB require checks (as we agreed), as there is then the possibility/likelihood that they could then move on to ROI, hence entering the EU indirectly.

So because it’s unlikely you are saying should not bother. Would not want to be in a plane that might crash with you as pilot as you give up to easy.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
I’d be happy if they changed that as per belowI.

“Ok, we will remove the requirement all checks on food/goods going into NI, if you accept FOM for RNI Nationals again”.

Above, Seams reasonable as we are only talking about Freedom of goods into RNI and then reciprocate with FOM for RNI Nationals. I think extending it to all of EU is stupid idea give we are only talking about goods into 1 EU member. Glad your not at the negotiating table. Even BoJo is better than you.
You do realise that the EU is a trading “block” don’t you, hence a rule for one member is a rule for all members. That was kind of the crux of much of the Brexit complaints..
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
You do realise that the EU is a trading block don’t you, hence a rule for one member is a rule for all members. That was kind of the crux of much of the Brexit complaints..

Yes I do, have you heard of exceptions to the rule. However, let’s not digress to much I was purely answering your question about allowing FOM to all of EU for frictionless trade with 1 EU member.
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
Ok, I can see reality of the situation is getting nowhere. I applaud your optimism though.

One can try and that is what our government is doing or one can give up and not bother on the basis that the situation will get nowhere.

This current topic all came about because I simply said “I applaud the govt for trying”. Severely posts later focussing on history, we now arrive at the point where defeatism is setting in. As you say, I am optimistic where are you appear not to be.

Craps players will tell you “If you don’t bother to roll the dice it will never land double six“
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
Yes I do, have you heard of exceptions to the rule. However, let’s not digress to much I was purely answering your question about allowing FOM to all of EU for frictionless trade with 1 EU member.
One of the main arguments against the EU is that there aren’t exceptions to the rules of the SM/CU, that’s why many people voted to leave.

It’s also not just trading with one Member, it’s moving goods/foods inside the SM via a border with one member. After that point, those goods are free to travel anywhere within the EU, via frictionless trade.

As the U.K. Government isn’t exactly known as a bastion of honesty, it’s not entirely surprising that the EU might not take our word as our bond in the new plan revealed yesterday, whereby we will basically make a promise that goods going into NI, for NI use only, will be labelled as such.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
Craps players will tell you “If you don’t bother to roll the dice it will never land double six“
And crap negotiators will tell you that it’s all the other sides’ fault and that they should be more flexible with the agreement signed 7 months ago 😉
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
One of the main arguments against the EU is that there aren’t exceptions to the rules of the SM/CU, that’s why many people voted to leave.

It’s also not just trading with one Member, it’s moving goods/foods inside the SM via a border with one member. After that point, those goods are free to travel anywhere within the EU, via frictionless trade.

The border between RNI and NI and GFA is a very unique situation. It’s unlikely that similar scenario exists, if so, creating a unique solution for these particular circumstances would not (IMO) be classed as like for like exception to the rule.

Or in other words the EU can easily create a new rule that says

“Where a EU member has a land border with a former EU member and a GFA equivalent is in existence then a unique set of rules which differ from all other standards will be put in place.

Job done
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
And crap negotiators will tell you that it’s all the other sides’ fault and that they should be more flexible with the agreement signed 7 months ago 😉

Agreed, when you hear that do you believe them? I don’t and would tell them to renegotiate.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
The border between RNI and NI and GFA is a very unique situation. It’s unlikely that similar scenario exists, if so, creating a unique solution for these particular circumstances would not (IMO) be classed as like for like exception to the rule.

Or in other words the EU can easily create a new rule that says

“Where a EU member has a land border with a former EU member and a GFA equivalent is in existence then a unique set of rules which differ from all other standards will be put in place.

Job done
You’re ignoring the point about goods then moving throughout the Single Market unchecked, which is the exact reason why Johnson implemented the Sea border, and signed an agreement to carry out the required checks/documentation.
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
You’re ignoring the point about goods then moving throughout the Single Market unchecked, which is the exact reason why Johnson implemented the Sea border, and signed an agreement to carry out the required checks/documentation.

How I am ignoring it, all I have been saying is

Glad Govt is trying to renegotiate
What I hoped the outcome might be
Why implementing the outcomes I mentioned do not necessarily have be classed a breaking existing EU rules through the creation of a new rule that would apply to all EU members who were in the same position
It’s better to look forward than backward
Be optimistic not defeatist
 

Diana Fire

Active Member
The border between RNI and NI and GFA is a very unique situation. It’s unlikely that similar scenario exists, if so, creating a unique solution for these particular circumstances would not (IMO) be classed as like for like exception to the rule.

Or in other words the EU can easily create a new rule that says

“Where a EU member has a land border with a former EU member and a GFA equivalent is in existence then a unique set of rules which differ from all other standards will be put in place.

Job done
I believe EU already suggested an agri/SPS agreement but UK gave a flat refusal (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). UK wants the freedom to diverge from EU standards, and you can't have free movement of goods into EU unless you sign up to those standards.

The NIP is a unique solution for these particular circumstances which Govt has negotiated and agreed, but not implemented.

We're kind of back to the cake-and-eating it scenario of years ago.
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
You do realise that the EU is a trading “block” don’t you, hence a rule for one member is a rule for all members. That was kind of the crux of much of the Brexit complaints..
EU is far more than just a Trading Block. If it was we would still be in it.
 
I wasn’t suggesting there were any limitations on what you think a renegotiation of the NIP could bring, I was just responding to say that it’s likely not going to happen.

Goods entering NI from GB require checks (as we agreed), as there is then the possibility/likelihood that they could then move on to ROI, hence entering the EU indirectly
I believe EU already suggested an agri/SPS agreement but UK gave a flat refusal (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). UK wants the freedom to diverge from EU standards, and you can't have free movement of goods into EU unless you sign up to those standards.

The NIP is a unique solution for these particular circumstances which Govt has negotiated and agreed, but not implemented.

We're kind of back to the cake-and-eating it scenario of years ago.

You can have equivalence without having the exact same standards.

Were the EU requiring us to sign up to their rules or agree a mechanism for equivalence?
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
I believe EU already suggested an agri/SPS agreement but UK gave a flat refusal (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). UK wants the freedom to diverge from EU standards, and you can't have free movement of goods into EU unless you sign up to those standards.

The NIP is a unique solution for these particular circumstances which Govt has negotiated and agreed, but not implemented.

We're kind of back to the cake-and-eating it scenario of years ago.
Think your right, but then that limits trade throughout the UK with other trading partners that aren't signed up to EU standards I think.

As a Brexit voter I'm not against something in this area but don't know all the strings/implications.
 

MSW

Distinguished Member
We're kind of back to the cake-and-eating it scenario of years ago.

Not sure about that, if we could pretend the the unique situation between RNI, NI and then the GFA did not exist then I imagine the Gov would be happy with Border Checks between RNI and NI.

Ultimately the deal that the EU wanted and signed does not work. So I think it’s quite reasonably, follow Implementation to raise the issue and renegotiate.

UK wants to protect GFA which is why there are currently no checks on the border. It is clear that having to carry out checks on goods only intended for NI is not working.
 

Diana Fire

Active Member
You can have equivalence without having the exact same standards.

Were the EU requiring us to sign up to their rules or agree a mechanism for equivalence?
The Govt's latest suggestion is to get rid of governance. How can you measure divergence from equivalence without it? If the UK is determined to maintain or raise standards, why won't it sign up to alignment?
 

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