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Discussing the impact of Brexit

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
As are everyone else, not a Brexit issue, move on.
:laugh: It maybe doesn't suit your agenda or position but when you're on the bones of your arse you're more likely to concede and accept that you have to make concessions, we are simply not in a position of strength to take a hardline on something like fishing. The tide has turned on this government their public approval ratings are in freefall the country simply won't accept throwing what's left of our economy to the wolves under WTO that would be economic suicide when there is a deal on the horizon that could ensure relative stability
There's a reason even hardcore leavers like Isobel Oakeshott are publicly saying an extension is the right thing to do.....
 

psikey

Distinguished Member
:laugh: It maybe doesn't suit your agenda or position but when you're on the bones of your arse you're more likely to concede and accept that you have to make concessions, we are simply not in a position of strength to take a hardline on something like fishing. The tide has turned on this government their public approval ratings are in freefall the country simply won't accept throwing what's left of our economy to the wolves under WTO that would be economic suicide when there is a deal on the horizon that could ensure relative stability
There's a reason even hardcore leavers like Isobel Oakeshott are publicly saying an extension is the right thing to do.....
Should have done ages ago, off to ignored list you go. Waste of time.
 

justincase

Well-known Member
We're out on our arse facing the deepest recession we've seen for a century with mass unemployment, no trade deals that come even close to replicating what we had and are facing massive crippling tarriffs being imposed at the end of the year if we can't agree a deal.
Do you think anything is better this side of the channel :facepalm:
Macron has lost his parliamentary majority,,unemployment was already a problem a long time before now,riots,protests and to top it all off France can't set its own fiscal policies or print it's own currency...No need to discuss Italy,Spain ,Greece etc they were pretty much screwed a long time ago
German courts upsetting the EU,,yeah it's all roses

So do you think the UK should just give the EU what they want,, fish,yeah help yourself,ECJ jurisdiction,no problem anything else,,oops nearly forgot the 39 billion they want..


Do you really think the UK aren't going to roll over and concede on fishing when it's such a small aspect of overall trade and predominately Scottish? :laugh:
I have no idea but it's not just about fishing is it,do ,you think german carmakers,french champagne producers etc etc are standing arm in arm with a few EU fishermen for as you rightly say is a small aspect of overall trade..
I'm not saying an agreement on fishing won't be agreed but the EU will just as likely if not more so leave the EU fishermen hanging in the wind than the UK government would..If i was a gambling man i would wager that would be the first thing the EU would drop
In 2018 the trade deficit in goods was 32 billion with germany alone,,i doubt they give 2 hoots about fishing rights
 

Ron Hilditch

Active Member
:laugh: It maybe doesn't suit your agenda or position but when you're on the bones of your arse you're more likely to concede and accept that you have to make concessions, we are simply not in a position of strength to take a hardline on something like fishing. The tide has turned on this government their public approval ratings are in freefall the country simply won't accept throwing what's left of our economy to the wolves under WTO that would be economic suicide when there is a deal on the horizon that could ensure relative stability
There's a reason even hardcore leavers like Isobel Oakeshott are publicly saying an extension is the right thing to do.....
Nichola Sturgeon would sell Scottish fishermen down the river ASAP if she could! The Scottish Nats. whinge about how bad rule from Westminster is! Yet look at the SNPs record in Government, they don't give a toss. Unless it costs them enough votes to take them out of power. As you point out, Scottish fishermen are small in number, so they don't matter. Scottish independence is for Scottish people to decide. But I'll give you a quote from a friend of mine. Gilbert was born and bred in Ayrshire. He always viewed the SNP as Tartan Tories. They haven't changed, just temporarily moved leftwards. This only came about when it was obvious the Tories were losing support in Scotland. Scottish fishermen to the wall, who would be next?
 

tickedon

Active Member
Trading with the EU on WTO terms will lead to a bumpy 2021. But given what we're seeing so far in 2020, I doubt most will notice or blame the lack of any EU trade deal.

As we'll also have relatively few trade deals in place with other countries from 1st Jan 2021, our exporters will be filling in custom declaration forms for most countries. This will be a slight pain for them, but, also means their horizons will broaden - if it's just as much faff to export to Asia than it is to EU, where they focus their attention will become much more a question of profit margins, competitors, legal systems in that country etc. Over time, our exporters will find other markets.

Those in the EU who export to us will also suddenly find themselves on the same 'level playing field' as most other countries who are exporting goods to the UK - or, indeed, in a worse position than some who have rolled over existing trade deals! A car from South Korea will suddenly be cheaper to import to the UK than one from the EU. The huge trade surplus the EU currently enjoys with us will start to erode and disappear.

The lack of an EU-UK free trade agreement is, in the short term, lose-lose for both sides. In the long term, the UK would recover particularly as we go out and sign trade deals with others, but the EU will permanently have lost its trade surplus and trading advantage (much as our previous trading partners like Australia did when we first joined the EEC). Fishing will be a whole other issue - I suspect no trade deal means no fishing access, and that's really bad news for EU coastal towns and villages.
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
Do you think anything is better this side of the channel :facepalm:
Macron has lost his parliamentary majority,,unemployment was already a problem a long time before now,riots,protests and to top it all off France can't set its own fiscal policies or print it's own currency...No need to discuss Italy,Spain ,Greece etc they were pretty much screwed a long time ago
German courts upsetting the EU,,yeah it's all roses

So do you think the UK should just give the EU what they want,, fish,yeah help yourself,ECJ jurisdiction,no problem anything else,,oops nearly forgot the 39 billion they want..



I have no idea but it's not just about fishing is it,do ,you think german carmakers,french champagne producers etc etc are standing arm in arm with a few EU fishermen for as you rightly say is a small aspect of overall trade..
I'm not saying an agreement on fishing won't be agreed but the EU will just as likely if not more so leave the EU fishermen hanging in the wind than the UK government would..If i was a gambling man i would wager that would be the first thing the EU would drop
In 2018 the trade deficit in goods was 32 billion with germany alone,,i doubt they give 2 hoots about fishing rights
Given that no other nation is out of the single market with no trade deals in place to replace that trade and facing the prospect of cripling tarriffs being imposed on any trade we do get then i'd say yes, things are far better across the channel....by a considerable margin

Fisherman got sold a pup, they think they can get it all ways. They want out of the CFP, retain our own waters with no external access and still sell theif fish to the EU where their biggest market is, it is completely impossible for all of those things to happen
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
Nichola Sturgeon would sell Scottish fishermen down the river ASAP if she could! The Scottish Nats. whinge about how bad rule from Westminster is! Yet look at the SNPs record in Government, they don't give a toss. Unless it costs them enough votes to take them out of power. As you point out, Scottish fishermen are small in number, so they don't matter. Scottish independence is for Scottish people to decide. But I'll give you a quote from a friend of mine. Gilbert was born and bred in Ayrshire. He always viewed the SNP as Tartan Tories. They haven't changed, just temporarily moved leftwards. This only came about when it was obvious the Tories were losing support in Scotland. Scottish fishermen to the wall, who would be next?
In what is quite a high bar that is without a doubt the most drivel i've read in one post on AVF.....welcome back Pacifico Ron :D
 

Ron Hilditch

Active Member
Given that no other nation is out of the single market with no trade deals in place to replace that trade and facing the prospect of cripling tarriffs being imposed on any trade we do get then i'd say yes, things are far better across the channel....by a considerable margin

Fisherman got sold a pup, they think they can get it all ways. They want out of the CFP, retain our own waters with no external access and still sell theif fish to the EU where their biggest market is, it is completely impossible for all of those things to happen
Most of the fishing licences were sold to EU fishermen. You can't sell something and expect to get it back! However we can insist trawlers land their catch at its Port of registration. So it could be EU trawlers catch the fish, but after that it must support the UK's onshore fishing infrastructure.
So will the EU punish its own fishermen for landing their catches in the UK?
 

Buzza

Active Member
Most of the fishing licences were sold to EU fishermen. You can't sell something and expect to get it back! However we can insist trawlers land their catch at its Port of registration. So it could be EU trawlers catch the fish, but after that it must support the UK's onshore fishing infrastructure.
So will the EU punish its own fishermen for landing their catches in the UK?
Most of the English fishing licences were sold to EU fishermen, but that is approx 25% of UK licences, as per BBC recent article Who really owns UK fishing rights?
 

justincase

Well-known Member
Fisherman got sold a pup, they think they can get it all ways. They want out of the CFP, retain our own waters with no external access and still sell theif fish to the EU where their biggest market is, it is completely impossible for all of those things to happen
None of it is impossible,apart from selling fish to the EU ,it's all in the hands of your government..
Have they said no external access or is it that they won't agree on it before a free trade agreement (which is what the EU want to do)

Given that no other nation is out of the single market with no trade deals in place to replace that trade and facing the prospect of cripling tarriffs being imposed on any trade we do get then i'd say yes, things are far better across the channel...
So is all trade going to cease instantly then is it,someone had best mention that to the Germans ,,Dutch and the other member states with big trade surplus's with the UK that their economies are also facing an impending armageddon
.People don't trade with each other out of the goodness of their hearts ,you have something to sell that i want or need to buy,,we trade,,if i can get it cheaper elsewhere ,,i will..

Crippling tariffs,,who are imposing these crippling tariffs exactly,,is it the UK government,i thought they are going to remove a lot of these tariffs..
 

Ron Hilditch

Active Member
That's an excellent article and totally contradicts the nonsence Ron was posting :smashin:
Nonsense? Let's look at the facts! UK fishing vessels only have sole access to 12 miles of our 200 mile territorial waters. Regardless of the trawler owners' Nationality. So the rest, 188 miles has fishing allocation set by the EU. In the last week the World's biggest trawler has been hoovering up fish off the coast of Scotland. Within the 200 mile limit. Who gave them permission ? Was it the Scottish Assembly, the UK Parliament or the European Commision? When it comes to setting fishing limits, does the EU do a good job? A couple of examples. Small juvenile fish that should not be caught, under EU law are widely served up in Spanish restaurants. Millions of tonnes of Sand Eels are taken from British territorial waters end up burned in power stations. Leading to the decimation of many species of birds including Puffins. When it comes to fishing stock conservation, the EU is useless! Anything goes with them, as long as it's for the greater good. Read that as supporting French or German interests.
 

tickedon

Active Member
Given that no other nation is out of the single market with no trade deals in place to replace that trade and facing the prospect of cripling tarriffs being imposed on any trade we do get then i'd say yes, things are far better across the channel....by a considerable margin

Fisherman got sold a pup, they think they can get it all ways. They want out of the CFP, retain our own waters with no external access and still sell theif fish to the EU where their biggest market is, it is completely impossible for all of those things to happen
"crippling tariffs"? The average EU tariff is a few percent - there certainly are some areas and sectors, where the tariffs are huge and agriculture/fish is one of those areas. And you are right - a fishing deal would, in theory, unlock a lower/no tariff import deal with the EU for fish.

However, given it is EU consumers who eat a lot of these fish at the moment, if we leave with no deal and no fishing deal, if they stop importing from the UK where will the EU consumers get their fish from?

Will EU consumers stop buying fish? Will the limited supply mean prices rise (in which case, our fish even with tariffs could be competitive)? Will they look outside the EU for other suppliers (which again would make our fish competitive given most will be in a similar tariff position)?

You seem to assume everything is black & white. The reality is that markets and consumers adapt to the changing circumstances.
 

Panavision

Well-known Member
Under cover of the Coronavirus pandemic and headlines over the Government’s handling of the crisis which has seen Britain suffer more deaths than any other European country, another major public health story has slipped through barely noticed.

The most important farming legislation in generations passed its third reading in parliament despite warnings that in a bid to make the UK market pliable for a post-Brexit US trade deal, protections of minimum food safety standards have evaporated, as have safeguards for Britain’s farmers.

With most MPs still socially distanced at home, MPs passed the legislation’s third reading in a virtual vote – 360 – 211. A full list of how they voted in this crucial legislation is below.

As the bill moves to the Lords for a second reading amid outrage from UK farmers, this weekend former Ulster Unionist MEP Jim Nicholson expressed his disbelief that all eight DUP MPs had voted with Conservative colleagues for a bill he said has “the potential to be the last nail in the coffin for agriculture in Northern Ireland.”

He warned: “the Bill opens the flood gates to cheap food imports into the UK from around the world. This food will not have been produced to the same standards achieved consistently by farmers in Northern Ireland. These imports will serve to drive markets down at a time when local farmers are under tremendous pressure.”

It was sadly predictable to see Conservative and DUP MPs falling into line, despite previous concerns expressed by those very MPs that have rural constituencies or knowledge of foods and farming, or indeed Northern Ireland – where the farming industry now has big concerns with Boris Johnson’s promises of no border checks and alignment with the rest of the UK rather than Europe evaporating daily.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
I've been keeping abreast of Brexit too, although not posting as it's not really a topic anyone appears interested in right now. Quite right I suppose.

However there are things people are missing in the news, and some of it is likely going to cause friction down the line. And I don't mean friction with the EU, I mean within our own borders. The government are going to need to do a lot of explaining.
 

Panavision

Well-known Member
I've been keeping abreast of Brexit too, although not posting as it's not really a topic anyone appears interested in right now. Quite right I suppose.

However there are things people are missing in the news, and some of it is likely going to cause friction down the line. And I don't mean friction with the EU, I mean within our own borders. The government are going to need to do a lot of explaining.
Border checks between N.I. and the mainland UK? Something Boris dismissed in December.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Border checks between N.I. and the mainland UK? Something Boris dismissed in December.
Oh yeah that as well. Another sh*tstorm waiting to happen, just being slightly delayed with the virus obviously.

I'm sure there's going to be plenty queuing up to question the PM on that one. And how it was that he felt it was right to tell people there wouldn't be.
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
"crippling tariffs"? The average EU tariff is a few percent - there certainly are some areas and sectors, where the tariffs are huge and agriculture/fish is one of those areas. And you are right - a fishing deal would, in theory, unlock a lower/no tariff import deal with the EU for fish.

However, given it is EU consumers who eat a lot of these fish at the moment, if we leave with no deal and no fishing deal, if they stop importing from the UK where will the EU consumers get their fish from?

Will EU consumers stop buying fish? Will the limited supply mean prices rise (in which case, our fish even with tariffs could be competitive)? Will they look outside the EU for other suppliers (which again would make our fish competitive given most will be in a similar tariff position)?

You seem to assume everything is black & white. The reality is that markets and consumers adapt to the changing circumstances.
Sorry i forgot to reply to you

Regardless of the size of the tariff imposed it puts that business at a competitive disadvantage no matter the sector. Many businesses are already crippled by CV so the last thing they need is further barriers and red tape in the way of re-establishing that trade from existing markets and a return to profit

I don't for one second think it's all black and white, i'm arguing quite the opposite that the unique circumstances were in at the moment means we need to come to an agreed compromise. The issue is there are posters here that are totally blinkered by their hatred of the EU and think that by leaving on WTO terms everything will be rosy and that's just ludicrous.....I'd maybe think differently if there were a pile of other juicy trade deals on someone’s desk just waiting to be signed but there's nothing that comes close to what we have and we're now intent on handicapping ourselves further

Yes markets and consumers will adapt but there are no guarantees that they'll adapt in our favour, the fishermen were sold a utopian fantasy land that can't possibly happen the ultimate cake and eat it scenario, I said at the start the government would roll on them for concessions elsewhere and no one’s convinced me otherwise, time will tell I suppose
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
More info from a Scottish perspective, especially relevant due to so many of them coming from rural constituencies meaning they were voting contrary to the interests of those they were voted in to represent

 

Ron Hilditch

Active Member
Sorry i forgot to reply to you

Regardless of the size of the tariff imposed it puts that business at a competitive disadvantage no matter the sector. Many businesses are already crippled by CV so the last thing they need is further barriers and red tape in the way of re-establishing that trade from existing markets and a return to profit

I don't for one second think it's all black and white, i'm arguing quite the opposite that the unique circumstances were in at the moment means we need to come to an agreed compromise. The issue is there are posters here that are totally blinkered by their hatred of the EU and think that by leaving on WTO terms everything will be rosy and that's just ludicrous.....I'd maybe think differently if there were a pile of other juicy trade deals on someone’s desk just waiting to be signed but there's nothing that comes close to what we have and we're now intent on handicapping ourselves further

Yes markets and consumers will adapt but there are no guarantees that they'll adapt in our favour, the fishermen were sold a utopian fantasy land that can't possibly happen the ultimate cake and eat it scenario, I said at the start the government would roll on them for concessions elsewhere and no one’s convinced me otherwise, time will tell I suppose
The fishermen were sold nothing! They are the prime movers when it comes to restoring sovereignty over our territorial waters. For once it's about politicians carrying out the will of the people. You can argue good thing/bad thing, when it comes to Brexit. The people have decided, it's called democracy! The Government must implement their mandate. Can understand people wanting to keep the economic certainty of EU membership. It can't take precedence over democracy.
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
Nonsense? Let's look at the facts! UK fishing vessels only have sole access to 12 miles of our 200 mile territorial waters. Regardless of the trawler owners' Nationality. So the rest, 188 miles has fishing allocation set by the EU. In the last week the World's biggest trawler has been hoovering up fish off the coast of Scotland. Within the 200 mile limit. Who gave them permission ? Was it the Scottish Assembly, the UK Parliament or the European Commision? When it comes to setting fishing limits, does the EU do a good job? A couple of examples. Small juvenile fish that should not be caught, under EU law are widely served up in Spanish restaurants. Millions of tonnes of Sand Eels are taken from British territorial waters end up burned in power stations. Leading to the decimation of many species of birds including Puffins. When it comes to fishing stock conservation, the EU is useless! Anything goes with them, as long as it's for the greater good. Read that as supporting French or German interests.
Think you need to brush up on your history in relation to fishing

73: In EC talks Health government said fisheries expendable
83: Thatcher government signs up to CFP and agrees quota system
94: Major opens up Scottish waters to other EU states
03: Tories demand CFP be enshrined in EU treaty

You posted that the Scottish government / SNP would sell the fishermen and everyone down the river. But given what's gone before and with the link @Buzza posted showing that a tiny proportion of Scottish quotas are in foreign hands yet over half of English are it's not the SNP but the Tories that have failed to stand up for fishermen and sold them out and the same will happen again....so yeah i said you were posting nonsense and i stand by that

You may have funnied my post about it being the fishermen wants but you see that's where i get my info, straight from them. I live in the largest fishing region in the country and married into a fishing family so i know what they were promised and are now demanding the politicians deliver on
 

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