Crime at lowest level since at least 1981

shodan

Member
And on a personal note, I'd like to take all the credit for it..
 

arenaman

Moderator
Statistics, you've got to love them :laugh:
 

arenaman

Moderator
No, don't make it up. Give us your stats for crime levels.

Phil
Is this the part where I say I can't then you say well shut up unless you can come up with anything better? :laugh:
 

arenaman

Moderator
I'm personally sceptical about any sets of crime figures, there's a great deal of manipulation of figures going on to hit targets and has been for a long time. It worries me that it gives the government even more ammunition to decimate police numbers even further
 

Philly112

Distinguished Member
I'm personally sceptical about any sets of crime figures, there's a great deal of manipulation of figures going on to hit targets and has been for a long time. It worries me that it gives the government even more ammunition to decimate police numbers even further

The figures are from the British Crime Survey. These figures really are above any political interference. Sure, there can be arguments about the statistical methods. But there really is no argument about the trend. If you don't agree with these figures, or think they are manipulated in some way... Then, we're back to my previous post - you really need to post your own figures. But I would hope that you would see that crime is lower than at any time in the past 30 years or so. It's really not debatable.

Phil
 
D

Deleted member 13294

Guest
The figures on violent crime falling were also backed up by stats from A&E departments earlier this week.

Rather undermines the alarmist statements from the police about the impact of cuts.
 

Trollslayer

Distinguished Member
The figures are from the British Crime Survey. These figures really are above any political interference. Sure, there can be arguments about the statistical methods. But there really is no argument about the trend. If you don't agree with these figures, or think they are manipulated in some way... Then, we're back to my previous post - you really need to post your own figures. But I would hope that you would see that crime is lower than at any time in the past 30 years or so. It's really not debatable.

Phil
15% is more than enough to be clear of anomalies.
 

arenaman

Moderator
The figures are from the British Crime Survey. These figures really are above any political interference. Sure, there can be arguments about the statistical methods. But there really is no argument about the trend. If you don't agree with these figures, or think they are manipulated in some way... Then, we're back to my previous post - you really need to post your own figures. But I would hope that you would see that crime is lower than at any time in the past 30 years or so. It's really not debatable.

Phil
A quick read of their website says they use a survey of 50k homes alongside official figures to get a truer picture of crime., what would that be 2-3% of the population? a very small amount.

Firstly they use the official figures which are manipulated, every force does it, the odd shed burglary gets downgraded to a theft, shoplifters already banned from stores are never convicted for burglary, a damage is written off as an accident and numerous other crimes are not recorded as the IP does not want to "officially confirm anything has occurred"

Secondly just who do they speak to as well? I bet it's not the small percentage of high crime causers in the inner cities who commit and have committed upon them numerous crimes a day but nobody says nothing or reports anything because that's the way it is innit.

We only really know and can go by what gets reported and what people will talk about, everything else that goes on, which is a lot IMO is virtually impossible to quantify

Having said all that I don't actually disagree that reported crime is falling, it is, it's just that a sh*t load of unreported things go on which is anyones guess as to the true extent of crime

I'm saying no more now
 

Philly112

Distinguished Member
Having said all that I don't actually disagree that reported crime is falling, it is, it's just that a poop load of unreported things go on which is anyones guess as to the true extent of crime

I'm saying no more now
You obviously have no idea as to what the crime survey is. It does exactly that - surveys the true extent of crime, nothing to do with police reporting. A survey of 50,000 homes is simply massive.

Phil
 

arenaman

Moderator
You obviously have no idea as to what the crime survey is. It does exactly that - surveys the true extent of crime, nothing to do with police reporting. A survey of 50,000 homes is simply massive.

Phil
I had no idea how they arrived at their figures but I read about it and it says it combines official figures and the results of its survey of 50k homes. Considering there's over 23million homes in England and Wales, that's tiny in my book and as I said I very much doubt they ask the right people, the main element of criminality, the sub culture of society and if they did they wouldn't get any answers
 

bluedroog

Well-known Member
I read sexual crimes were up, I doubt this is actually true but rather a reflection of more people feeling they can come forward in light of the Savile scandal.

I must say my area feels safer than it did a couple of years ago, perception and facts are often not the same though, that is just my personal perception based on my experiences. I should also point out I live in an area that had improved a lot in the last 10 years from gang land to one of the most desirable parts of London. We still have Harlesden on the doorstep which once had the highest murder rate in the country, just this week my route to work was diverted as a road was closed due to a shooting at 8 o' clock in the morning.
 

tbc

Banned
I'm always sceptical about this sort of 'statistic', has crime fallen by 15% or has the reporting of crimes fallen? The statistical impact is obvious.
 

Philly112

Distinguished Member
I'm always sceptical about this sort of 'statistic', has crime fallen by 15% or has the reporting of crimes fallen? The statistical impact is obvious.

The crime survey has nothing to do with reporting of crime. In fact the ONS do not believe that the police data is particularly relevant to their survey, as it relies on reporting of crime. Although in general terms, both tend to show the same trends. As do A and E stats from the NHS, which indicate that violent crime is falling. Or perhaps less people with broken faces are going to the hospital now.
The crime survey has flaws of course, in that certain crimes are omitted and they don't include some types of household eg hostels, where crime might be more common.

Have a read of this article in the Guardian.

Falling overall crime levels are no one-year wonder | UK news | The Guardian

Phil
 

Thug

Moderator
Any figures can be manipulated.
Looking at one year doesn't really tell the full picture. It must be a rolling year on year to show what is really happening.
Hell I could come up with crime figures miles apart just from looking at what was reported on different days where the weather was extreme, never mind different areas or class of people.
 

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