COVID. What is the reality?

DemonAV

Distinguished Member
Hello all.

Last week I lost friend who was suffering from cancer. He passed due to catching COVID 19 in Ireland as his immunity was too low for him to get over it and he unfortunately he passed. I've been reading online projections from various sources that the potential deaths from non treatments of non COVID related illnesses such as Cancer, Heart disease etc will overtake the fatalities from COVID alone. Taking into account that we are receiving conflicting information dependant on what you read and where this information is coming from I want to ask what is YOUR reasoning?
There is a lot of people who are getting more frustrated with the limitations set by our governments and today there is a very large demonstration taking place in central London that is against the govts actions and also against the possible introduction of mass inoculations once we have a proven antivirus. I firmly believe that if this continues into a second year we could be facing civil unrest unlike anything we've seen before globally.
What is your perspective?
 

bjd

Distinguished Member
My perspective is that there are already sufficient threads, surprisingly in the Coronavirus subforum, where there is ample opportunity to discuss any facet of the pandemic to your heart's content. No need to spread the infection to GC.
 

rousetafarian

Moderator
My perspective is that there are already sufficient threads, surprisingly in the Coronavirus subforum, where there is ample opportunity to discuss any facet of the pandemic to your heart's content. No need to spread the infection to GC.
Thank you.
 

two2midnight

Distinguished Member
There is a lot of people who are getting more frustrated with the limitations set by our governments and today there is a very large demonstration taking place in central London
The reported 15,000 is not a very large demonstation.
These were large demonstations: CND 1981(250K) and 1983 (300K), anti Iraq war 2003 "Police estimated attendance as well in excess of 750,000 people and the BBC estimated that around a million attended." Various anti Brexit demonstrations London June 2018 to March 2019 with 100K to 700K+
against the govts actions
And against 5G, against vaccinations in general, against shape shifting reptilian overlords...
against the possible introduction of mass inoculations once we have a proven antivirus.
What is exactly wrong with mass vaccination? It's done every year for flu.
we could be facing civil unrest unlike anything we've seen before globally.
What is your perspective?
From the photos I saw I strongly doubt that these 15,000 people could civil unrest themselves out of a wet paper bag, That certainly isn't something we've seen before globally....
 
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realfrankturner

Distinguished Member
Wide reports of officers and protesters being injured with bottles and other objects being thrown.

Sounds very peaceful, even if it was the minority or not.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Hello all.

Last week I lost friend who was suffering from cancer. He passed due to catching COVID 19 in Ireland as his immunity was too low for him to get over it and he unfortunately he passed. I've been reading online projections from various sources that the potential deaths from non treatments of non COVID related illnesses such as Cancer, Heart disease etc will overtake the fatalities from COVID alone. Taking into account that we are receiving conflicting information dependant on what you read and where this information is coming from I want to ask what is YOUR reasoning?
There is a lot of people who are getting more frustrated with the limitations set by our governments and today there is a very large demonstration taking place in central London that is against the govts actions and also against the possible introduction of mass inoculations once we have a proven antivirus. I firmly believe that if this continues into a second year we could be facing civil unrest unlike anything we've seen before globally.
What is your perspective?

Sorry to hear about your friend.

My perspective is very simple. We're in the midst of a worldwide pandemic and need to act accordingly. The likes of what we saw today is not acceptable. Nor have the previous meetings of this ilk been. The last thing we need is a whole brigade shouting and screaming conspiracy.

I'm also appalled at the fact that within 48 hours of a police officer being killed, we've now got people attacking the police again. For what purpose? What does that achieve? Are we so quick to lose respect?

People are quite right to be pissed off at the government, they're failing at a crucial time, but we have a responsibility to ourselves as well. Right now a great many are failing those responsibilities too.

It's not asking much to behave, clearly we have a problem in this country though when so many cannot. That is a long term issue that needs to be solved.
 

starfarer

Well-known Member
Hello all.

Last week I lost friend who was suffering from cancer. He passed due to catching COVID 19 in Ireland as his immunity was too low for him to get over it and he unfortunately he passed. I've been reading online projections from various sources that the potential deaths from non treatments of non COVID related illnesses such as Cancer, Heart disease etc will overtake the fatalities from COVID alone. Taking into account that we are receiving conflicting information dependant on what you read and where this information is coming from I want to ask what is YOUR reasoning?

Sorry for your loss.

This is Modelling paper by SAGE. Remember this is prediction based on available data at the time of publication and not historical data. Similar to Neil Ferguson's paper ie it's simulation with likely scenario. Ignore the tabloid's headline of 75000 lockdown deaths where they just multiply the total potential deaths in next 50 years by 5 (yrs). Chart on Page 8.

It should be noted that the health impacts modelled here represent a scenario with mitigations in place. Without mitigations, a far larger number of people would have died from COVID-19 such that the QALY impact from COVID-19 deaths would be more than three times the total QALY impact of all the categories (mortality and morbidity impacts) for the CSS mitigated scenario presented here

It is important to note that the estimates for health impacts in Category C and D have not been developed for the unmitigated RWC. It is reasonable to assume a very significant impact Category C, as hospitals would be over-run with COVID-19 patients. The economic impacts are unclear. Comparing the total impact across Categories A and B suggests that lives saved due to mitigations could total up to 1.5m. This estimate does not include Category C and D deaths, which without mitigation would also be higher in the short-term. However, this is a very limited comparison and many other factors have not been considered; it is difficult to know whether mitigating the pandemic may lead to impacts over a longer term and therefore greater impacts on the economy and the healthcare system
 
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Sorry for your loss.

This is Modelling paper by SAGE. Remember this is prediction based on available data at the time of publication and not historical data. Similar to Neil Ferguson's paper ie it's simulation with likely scenario. Ignore the tabloid's headline of 75000 lockdown deaths where they just multiply the total potential deaths in next 50 years by 5 (yrs). Chart on Page 8.

I may have misunderstood this and I have only skim read it, so I may be way off the mark here. Is this report suggesting that intervention measures have reduced UK Covid related deaths by up to 1.5 million? That is 1.5 times the total Covid deaths across the entire planet! Even the Ferguson model (since debunked by most of the experts) only came up with a figure of 500,000.
 

bjd

Distinguished Member
When will this seemingly deliberate disregard for the truth ever end? The Ferguson model has not now, nor ever was, "debunked by most of the experts", unless of course you count the Daily Mail and their ilk as experts. I have already posted this link, but maybe it needs to be posted on a daily basis to counteract the ignorance and misinformation that seems to be endlessly regurgitated:
Please try to read it with an open mind.
 
I suppose it depends on what source you read. Either way it was so far wide of the mark that it should never have been remotely relied upon. I'm still confused about the other prediction of 1.5 million though.

 
Here is another one. I thought he had only used his model for the UK before I started searching. I know I am speaking with hindsight, but these models now look utterly ridiculous. He predicted 326,000 for Canada and they are currently on 9,000. Tens of thousands of job losses have ensued, plus god knows how much more havoc. Going back to the UK model, if I had said to my boss I could generate sales of £500,000 and I actually delivered £50,000 I would be sacked. I am starting to realise that this guy has been largely responsible for the mess we, and many other countries, are now in.

 

bjd

Distinguished Member
Did you check the date of the article you linked to? Did you read the article I linked to?
What exactly does he mean by "I asked Ferguson and his colleagues for their model on multiple occasions to see how they got their numbers, but they never replied to my emails."? The model is publicly available here:
But he expects personal treatment?
Again, long on opinion, short on evidence. Oh, and if he was struggling to get his hands on the model, what is he basing his opinions on?
 

bjd

Distinguished Member
Here is another one. I thought he had only used his model for the UK before I started searching. I know I am speaking with hindsight, but these models now look utterly ridiculous. He predicted 326,000 for Canada and they are currently on 9,000. Tens of thousands of job losses have ensued, plus god knows how much more havoc. Going back to the UK model, if I had said to my boss I could generate sales of £500,000 and I actually delivered £50,000 I would be sacked. I am starting to realise that this guy has been largely responsible for the mess we, and many other countries, are now in.

Again, merely repeating allegations that have already shown to be false.
"Two months after Professor Ferguson’s publication, experts raised serious problems with his model. A software engineer from Google found inexplicable errors in the model, and it contains unverifiable information,” says Mr. St. Onge. “The studies and models upon which important governmental decisions are based must be public so that they can be analyzed and cross-checked.”
The model has been checked and it is publicly available. I would love to know who this Google software engineer is. Good coder, not so good Epidemiologist I suspect.
 

acatweasel

Distinguished Member
Again, merely repeating allegations that have already shown to be false.
"Two months after Professor Ferguson’s publication, experts raised serious problems with his model. A software engineer from Google found inexplicable errors in the model, and it contains unverifiable information,” says Mr. St. Onge. “The studies and models upon which important governmental decisions are based must be public so that they can be analyzed and cross-checked.”
The model has been checked and it is publicly available. I would love to know who this Google software engineer is. Good coder, not so good Epidemiologist I suspect.
I find it interesting that software engineers criticising the code don‘t seem to come up with an amended estimate. But then they would be rubbished like everybody else who has to stand up and be counted.

Try this thought. Those early estimates were against a “do nothing“ scenario. In mid April this country had over 8700 deaths in one week, “where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate”. That’s not the PHE “after a positive test“ daily codswallop. We had already started to do things. Anybody want to take their shot at what the death toll would have been if we had done nothing?

67m x .5% = over 300k? But it’s all bad maths, there’s no way we sit on our hands when this thing is going through society.
 

starfarer

Well-known Member
I may have misunderstood this and I have only skim read it, so I may be way off the mark here. Is this report suggesting that intervention measures have reduced UK Covid related deaths by up to 1.5 million? That is 1.5 times the total Covid deaths across the entire planet! Even the Ferguson model (since debunked by most of the experts) only came up with a figure of 500,000.

you have your answer ;)

I suppose it depends on what source you read. Either way it was so far wide of the mark that it should never have been remotely relied upon. I'm still confused about the other prediction of 1.5 million though.


yes same as above. You prefer not to believe on highly researched credible scientific journals like Nature (from bjd's post) but from biased sources.
 

gamerste

Well-known Member
Shame he's not still working on this.
Great asset, massively experienced in pandemic preparedness and experiences in previous Corona viruses.
I believe he was chopped and moved out of the way.
Not condoning his actions but they made sure he wasn't sitting on any sage meetings IMHO.
 
Shame he's not still working on this.
Great asset, massively experienced in pandemic preparedness and experiences in previous Corona viruses.
I believe he was chopped and moved out of the way.
Not condoning his actions but they made sure he wasn't sitting on any sage meetings IMHO.

I'm glad he isn't allowed near any more SAGE meetings. He has done far too much damage as it is. This is the guy whose predictions for bird flu and swine flu were do far off the mark, yet he keeps getting invited back!

 

bjd

Distinguished Member
I'm glad he isn't allowed near any more SAGE meetings. He has done far too much damage as it is. This is the guy whose predictions for bird flu and swine flu were do far off the mark, yet he keeps getting invited back!

Seriously? Yet another out of date article repeating already debunked allegations. How many threads have you posted this in now? And each time you are shown why your assertions are nonsense, you just hop across to another thread and post the same inaccuracies all over again.
 
Seriously? Yet another out of date article repeating already debunked allegations. How many threads have you posted this in now? And each time you are shown why your assertions are nonsense, you just hop across to another thread and post the same inaccuracies all over again.

So where specifically has the article got it wrong as regards his predictions for bird flu and swine flu (Q1 and Q2 in the Spectator article)? Are you saying that they have quoted incorrect information, if so, what are the correct figures, i.e Ferguson's forecasts and final outcomes?
 

bjd

Distinguished Member
Well, you could read this:
Pay particular attention to the section about Ferguson et. al. modelling what might happen if the virus mutated. Might. It was a "worst case scenario" attempt to predict the consequences of H5n1 mutating to a more virulent strain. Luckily for us, it didn't and maintained an R0 of around 0.2 (human flu is between 2.5 and 3).
You know, the real tragedy is that most of the hacks producing this drivel probably already know this. Even the article in the Guardian they link to in Q1is full of "could", but I presume they think most of their readerdhip will take their pronouncements as Gospel and not bother researching the veracity of their headlines.
 

gamerste

Well-known Member
I'm glad he isn't allowed near any more SAGE meetings. He has done far too much damage as it is. This is the guy whose predictions for bird flu and swine flu were do far off the mark, yet he keeps getting invited back!

Swine flu MERS SARS are more deadly than COVID 19 just that the transmission can be contained more easily, as it doesn't have the reproductive rate as COVID19.
 

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