Covid-19 mutations and new strains. How concerned should we be?

[paulyoung666]

I think it could be time to retreat to that Fallout style bunker I built a few years back. I have enough tins of beans to last for the next decade. See you in 2030 suckers.

you need tins of beans and sausages as well or you’ll get bored

 

[Nick74]

I think it could be time to retreat to that Fallout style bunker I built a few years back. I have enough tins of beans to last for the next decade. See you in 2030 suckers.

Will you be alone in there? A baked bean diet in a confined space would make you terrible company.

 

[Nick74]

Because if they drop the Tier system now it's an admission of failure. That doesn't fit with the narrative therefore cannot happen.

Until of course it has to happen. Got to make sure there's enough blame to throw at someone else first though.

The vaccine programme is going to have to be accelerated and I think schools are going to have shut for the foreseeable.

Saving face and managing reputation are prioritised above national health. Party before country.

 

[Greg Hook]

It's a failure because you can have as high a level of tier as you like, with as many restrictions as you like, but when the covidiots keep ignoring it and do what they want, meet who they want etc etc, you won't ever get a handle on it.

 

[gaaron]

I'd be afraid to ponder on how things would be if we hadn't had tiers in place. Stop moaning.

 

[Nick74]

I'd be afraid to ponder on how things would be if we hadn't had tiers in place. Stop moaning.

Undoubtedly things would be much worse if no action had been taken at all, but that doesn't invalidate the observation that the tier system hasn't forced the virus into retreat, and isn't working now given the new variant(s).

That's valid critical commentary. You can't shut down legitimate criticism by insisting that people stop moaning. It was never a choice between the tier system or nothing.

 

[Nick74]

It's a failure because you can have as high a level of tier as you like, with as many restrictions as you like, but when the covidiots keep ignoring it and do what they want, meet who they want etc etc, you won't ever get a handle on it.

Therein lies a huge part of the problem.

One side of the culture war has embraced the claim that social distancing, mask wearing, and generally showing consideration for other people is an assault on their freedom. They're not going to shift position now. Their position wasn't evidence based from the outset.

 

[SteveAWOL]

FWIW here’s some thoughts from Dr Hodcroft on the newly discovered strains from South Africa and Wales...

 

[gaaron]

I did my Xmas day with my daughter yesterday...now back to hibernation.

 

[Nick74]

FWIW here’s some thoughts from Dr Hodcroft on the newly discovered strains from South Africa and Wales...

So there's a UK variant, a Welsh variant, and a South African variant, all three of which are present in the UK.

That gives some context to the spike in Welsh case numbers post circuit break.

 

[SteveAWOL]

So there's a UK variant, a Welsh variant, and a South African variant, all three of which are present in the UK.

That gives some context to the spike in Welsh case numbers post circuit break.

I see that it’s now responsible for an estimated 10% of infections in Ireland too.

Tomas Ryan : School of Biochemistry and Immunology - Trinity College Dublin

www.tcd.ie

 

[lee667]

I was reading earlier that there is evidence of another new variant in Nigeria.

 

[Nick74]

I see that it’s now responsible for an estimated 10% of infections in Ireland too.

Tomas Ryan : School of Biochemistry and Immunology - Trinity College Dublin

www.tcd.ie

According to latest ONS estimate, half of all Covid infections in England are new variant, while in Scotland this is 40 percent. It's fast becoming the dominant strain, with cases overall trending upward.

That's probably not the Christmas message everyone wants, so sincere seasons greetings to all and stay safe.

 

[SteveAWOL]

According to latest ONS estimate, half of all Covid infections in England are new variant, while in Scotland this is 40 percent. It's fast becoming the dominant strain, with cases overall trending upward.

That's probably not the Christmas message everyone wants, so sincere seasons greetings to all and stay safe.

And those estimates are for last week!

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[starfarer]

For anyone wondering how they came up with these percentage figures, my undestanding is that it's from actual PCR tests data. The one mostly used in UK (TaqPath) test for 3 pieces of genes. UK variant with 69-70 deletion shows negative signal for genes encoding spike while being positive on 2 others. They can use this PCR test to track this new variant instead of extensive sequencing process.

 

[Nick74]

For anyone wondering how they came up with these percentage figures, my undestanding is that it's from actual PCR tests data. The one mostly used in UK (TaqPath) test for 3 pieces of genes. UK variant with 69-70 deletion shows negative signal for genes encoding spike while being positive on 2 others. They can use this PCR test to track this new variant instead of extensive sequencing process.

So we should regard these estimates as a broadly accurate picture of the overall situation.

As noted, this is now week old data. Given how communicable the new variant is, I can't say that's reassuring. Maybe it's time to close the laptop.

 

[starfarer]

I would say yes with the info released so far. NERVTAG's meeting minute have CI of 95% with range of 67-75%.

Growth rate from genomic data:which suggest a growth rate of VUI-202012/01that that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%)higher than other variants.

 

[SteveAWOL]

Looks like B.1.1.7 strain is already worldwide

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/12/26/variant-coronavirus-spreading-beyond-uk/

 

[kenshingintoki]

Pretty concerned.

The virus is mutating and although the vaccine currently available might cover THIS mutated strain, that by no means guarantees it will cover the NEXT mutated strain.

Getting everyone vaccinated as soon as possible is very important but given how greedy the UK is with their borders and we normally wait for countries to not let us in rather than the other way round for COVID-19, and the lack of border-control and strict quaratine protocol for newcomers to the country, I can't help but feel without a world-wide vaccination program, we're surely all just waiting for it to mutate in some other area of the globe and then once againe exponentially spread amongst ourselves.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[SteveAWOL]

A thread written by @AdamJKucharski

Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/

threader.app

BBC Four - Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic - Dr Adam Kucharski

Adam Kucharski is an Assistant Professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[BigA1]

For good measure I am re-watching the walking dead box sets.....

We're expecting more mutations so just trying to keep on the front foot...!!!

 

[starfarer]

Investigation of new SARS-CoV-2 variant - Technical Briefing 2

 

[SteveAWOL]

B.1.1.7 variant now discovered in USA

First U.S. Case of Highly Contagious Coronavirus Variant Is Found in Colorado

The fact that the infected man had no travel history raises the worrisome possibility that the variant is already well established in his community — and perhaps elsewhere in the United States.

www.nytimes.com

 

[richp007]

It was inevitable. There's no stopping something so contagious and I'm quite certain it will be just about everywhere now. 1 person is all it takes.

 

[BigA1]

How long until we hear that Wotsit coloured ****** talking about the "UK Virus".....!