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Coronavirus talk - are people going over the top?

Smurfin

Distinguished Member
The sense of urgency is clearly because the NHS cannot cope (I can attest to this, hospitals are struggling and we are NO WHERE near the health burden which Italy has DESPITE being on the SAME trajectory as them).
Are we actually on the same trajectory as them? Even on the BBC news last night, they showed the parallels on a graph, but amazingly the data wasn't shown for the previous 2 days. If you look at those numbers, for the last 2-3 days the UK fatality hasn't jumped, whereas for the corresponding days in italy, the death rate rocketed.
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
Are we actually on the same trajectory as them? Even on the BBC news last night, they showed the parallels on a graph, but amazingly the data wasn't shown for the previous 2 days. If you look at those numbers, for the last 2-3 days the UK fatality hasn't jumped, whereas for the corresponding days in italy, the death rate rocketed.

I actually think over the past 2 days thankfully it has calmed down.

The last time I think our trajectory matched Italy's nearly exactly was when we had 233 cases the same day they had 233.

Fingers crossed it continues down that road and the number of new cases starts decreasing.


I'm not entirely sure how reliable that graph is but as you can see we're just under their curve. We have put in place measures quicker than they did so if all goes to plan and people comply, I think we won't reach their situation.

I know in Italy to begin with they didn't take the lockdown seriously so I hope we don't do the same.
 

KiLLiNG-TiME

Distinguished Member
Re-the Spanish flu an interesting fact.

Do people know why the Spanish flu was called Spanish?

Its because the UK/USA/FRENCH & GERMANS + many other countries suppressed any information from being published the reason the "morale of the troops on the front lines etc etc " :facepalm: this suppression of information allowed the virus to spread everywhere much more quickly that it would have. How many people died because of these decisions well more people than died in the war itself.

Only the Spanish being neutral during WW1 published any information about in their papers at the time, hence the name Spanish Flu.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
This whole government lie of it just being a flu that kills off old people is still causing people to under-estimate and downplay the effects of the virus.
I'm afraid I don't really subscribe to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories such as that. Nor politicising the situation as you appear to be.

In a world of finite resources and infinite demand, there is unfortunately always a hard truth to be faced. I don't believe any political party is trying to gain collateral at this time and all accept that.

My reading of the question here is of application of effective global and national strategy to tackle the problem based on an educated and knowledge based approach to prevent a widescale crisis. Not the firefighting and political points which you appear to be focussed on which will result in short term delay at best but at a huge cost and ultimate catastrophe for everyone.

I'm happy to agree to disagree with you.
 

ldoodle

Suspended
The lockdown is to protect vulnerable groups
...
There's an awful lot of 'me' in your post
So just lockdown those groups, leaving the rest of us to keep things going; if the vast majority of us won't know we've had/got it, we won't need care. If we pass it on to the vulnerable, they will need care. If the vulnerable are locked down to not be able to get it in the first place, they won't need care.

And at the moment, the vulnerable are listed as over 70 and/or existing (respiratory) problems.

(with regard to 'me' you could not be more wrong if you tried (but it's very easy to make assumptions without actually knowing someone))

The economical impact of a 3-6 week soft lockdown
Do you know that school's potentially won't be going back this academic year. At all. So you can change your word 'weeks' to 'months'; when I picked up my son on Friday last week year 6 kids were signing shirts like you do when you finish in July, ready for Secondary School.

We will not recover in the foreseeable future from a 6 month or longer lockdown.
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
So just lockdown those groups, leaving the rest of us to keep things going; if the vast majority of us won't know we've had/got it, we won't need care. If we pass it on to the vulnerable, they will need care. If the vulnerable are locked down to not be able to get it in the first place, they won't need care.

And at the moment, the vulnerable are listed as over 70 and/or existing (respiratory) problems.

(with regard to 'me' you could not be more wrong if you tried (but it's very easy to make assumptions without actually knowing someone))



Do you know that school's potentially won't be going back this academic year. At all. So you can change your word 'weeks' to 'months'; when I picked up my son on Friday last week year 6 kids were signing shirts like you do when you finish in July, ready for Secondary School.

We will not recover in the foreseeable future from a 6 month or longer lockdown.

The people being admitted to hospital aren't all old people. Sure, young people can potentially come back from this but that requires ITU beds. We don't have that many ITU beds in our country and most importantly, ITU consultants.

For example:

I don't think it will come to a 6 month lockdown if everyone follows the lockdown protocols in place properly the disease spread will be severely limited, those who have it will either get over it or require hospital admission. The virus only lingers on surfaces for a matter of I think 48-72 hours on the worst surfaces.

If it comes to a 6 month lockdown, I agree that the economical effects will be extremely tough.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Do you understand the greater good better than all of the world's governements and all the experts that advise them?
And do you understand that there is no government, expert or pharma company anywhere that holds a cure to this ? If you have a cure, please share.
 

ldoodle

Suspended
The people being admitted to hospital aren't all old people.
Of course there are always exceptions to the rule. But overwhelmingly the global evidence suggests they are the 'vulnerable', along with pre-existing conditions.

I don't think it will come to a 6 month lockdown if everyone follows the lockdown protocols in place properly
I work in the NHS (though not employed by them) so driving in today I drove past lots of people in the 'vulnerable' group.
 

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
Of course there are always exceptions to the rule. But overwhelmingly the global evidence suggests they are the 'vulnerable', along with pre-existing conditions.



I work in the NHS (though not employed by them) so driving in today I drove past lots of people in the 'vulnerable' group.






Thats the latest evidence I've read today and it doesn't make for happy reading on any age front really. I think this misconception that older people are the only ones at risk is too dangerous. The cases I've listed above aren't exceptions to the rule. Young people can be affected.

I agree vulnerable people need to be indoors by now. If they're not, I don't know what to say.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Of course there are always exceptions to the rule. But overwhelmingly the global evidence suggests they are the 'vulnerable', along with pre-existing conditions.

I work in the NHS (though not employed by them) so driving in today I drove past lots of people in the 'vulnerable' group.
The age thing is a bit of a misnoma. If you have a poor immunity then you will struggle and if you have an aggressive immunity it may over react. That can generally/broadly be attributed to age profiles to identify vulnerability but by no means is it a rule.

There is no vaccine cure to this. It's a virus and as soon as you create a vaccine the virus will inevitably mutate anyway.

The cure if you have it is to let your immune system deal with it. Whether you are in hospital or sat in your living room, it's your immune system that will have to deal with it.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
the vulnerable are listed as over 70 and/or existing (respiratory) problems.
No, it's also anyone between 18 and 64 who gets an annual flu jab for free, so includes:
 

Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
So just lockdown those groups, leaving the rest of us to keep things going; if the vast majority of us won't know we've had/got it, we won't need care. If we pass it on to the vulnerable, they will need care. If the vulnerable are locked down to not be able to get it in the first place, they won't need care.

And at the moment, the vulnerable are listed as over 70 and/or existing (respiratory) problems.

(with regard to 'me' you could not be more wrong if you tried (but it's very easy to make assumptions without actually knowing someone))



Do you know that school's potentially won't be going back this academic year. At all. So you can change your word 'weeks' to 'months'; when I picked up my son on Friday last week year 6 kids were signing shirts like you do when you finish in July, ready for Secondary School.

We will not recover in the foreseeable future from a 6 month or longer lockdown.
The point is, the large exponential increases in cases means they won't be able to receive care.
No lockdown means the NHS will be overwhelmed within days.
This virus causes double lobar pneumonia in the serious cases, with no known cure or treatment other than oxygen, which from discussing this someone in charge of dealing with this is in short supply. The NHS does not have the staff to cope with high levels of admissions.

The eventual reality being that people will be left to die.

And people are moaning about schooling, It's a few months.
 

ldoodle

Suspended
The point is, the large exponential increases in cases means they won't be able to receive care.
No lockdown means the NHS will be overwhelmed within days.
This virus causes double lobar pneumonia in the serious cases, with no known cure or treatment other than oxygen, which from discussing this someone in charge of dealing with this is in short supply. The NHS does not have the staff to cope with high levels of admissions.

The eventual reality being that people will be left to die.

And people are moaning about schooling, It's a few months.
I'm not saying "no lockdown, at all". Just lockdown only those vulnerable; if it's so mild for the vast majority of us, to the point we don't know we've even had/got it, we'll not be the ones overwhelming healthcare, only the ones who need healthcare will, i.e. the vulnerable so just lockdown that group. If they're locked down, the chances of them getting it (greatly?) reduce so they'll also not be overwhelming healthcare.

What's happening right now, economically, will absolutely inevitably lead to suicide/drug use/self-harm/other crime/etc. from those affected, so either way, people die.

(I'm personally not moaning about schooling)
 

ldoodle

Suspended
No, it's also anyone between 18 and 64 who gets an annual flu jab for free, so includes:
But still, pre-existing conditions, some chronic. I have no idea how many people are daily-affected by that list, over and above those 70+ with the above.
 
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Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
The point is, the large exponential increases in cases means they won't be able to receive care.
No lockdown means the NHS will be overwhelmed within days.
There is already the acceptance that the virus is out there. Control of that is nigh on impossible now. It's a given.

Health services all over the world are over burdened. The theory they are pursuing is by pushing out the influx of potential patients and smoothing the curve will help Health services to be able to deal with the additional demand. In a controlled manner and not as a tidal wave.

The problem is not this virus in particular. The problem is there are also many patients with many other illnesses that require more care.

The advice is actually conversely try not to go to a doctor or hospital.

That's why the first line of defence if you get it, is stay at home, self isolate and hopefully you will get over it. It allows for waves of infected people to build immune resistance through a herd approach.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
I'm not saying "no lockdown, at all". Just lockdown only those vulnerable; if it's so mild for the vast majority of us, to the point we don't know we've even had/got it, we'll not be the ones overwhelming healthcare, only the ones who need healthcare will, i.e. the vulnerable so just lockdown that group. If they're locked down, the chances of them getting it (greatly?) reduce so they'll also not be overwhelming healthcare.

What's happening right now, economically, will absolutely inevitably lead to suicide/drug use/self-harm/other crime/etc. from those affected, so either way, people die.

(I'm personally not moaning about schooling)
And this is where panic has kicked in.....

What you are saying is the Shield approach. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but this should have been the approach 4 weeks ago. Letters should have gone out and notified the 1.5m they have identified at most risk first.

From that determine who they have been in contact with and begin to confine and isolate their exposure and so forth.

Countries like Korea and Taiwan have got a better grip on the situ because they went through an intelligent knowledge based approach to help identify and then to confine.

Instead we are now in a mass panic position where the whole nation is being locked down. Unfortunately we will not see it out to 6 months with that approach. Nor will any economy or country in the world. We would be lucky to see it out to 6 weeks.

Supply chains will be creaking already and I would be surprised if they don't begin to fall down within 4 weeks. If you think people are panic buying now, then just give it another 2 weeks or so to see the mayhem we will have......
 

Steven

Senior Moderator
@ldoodle are you genuinely employed by the NHS, which Trust then and in what role 🤔There's a story of a 34 year old otherwise healthy nurse in intensive care with Corona so perhaps you are presumptive to assume you (a) would be okay (b) would not kill someone else. You have clearly made up your mind so perhaps let's give it a rest and move it on 😎
 

ldoodle

Suspended
Anyone who thinks the lock-down can be lifted and it will all be over in a few weeks is just kidding themselves.
This is basically where I'm coming from. Those I know that are supporting the mass lockdown don't see if lasting long, so in turn don't see the potential effects on the economy a much longer lockdown is going to have.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Try 17 days...

Anyone who thinks the lock-down can be lifted and it will all be over in a few weeks is just kidding themselves.

CDC says coronavirus survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left
The virus is here and the virus is here to stay. That's nature's way, it's a given.

We just have to accept it and adapt a mechanism how to best deal with it from now on.

Unfortunately human nature is very difficult to contain. If you say don't panic, then people panic. Today there has been a run on Chemists and it will continue so forth day by day on all manner of other supplies. As things shorten in supply then the greater the unrest will be.

The government had no option to shut everything down because they felt no one was listening. They had to hit the reset button and the Prime Minister had to address the nation as such.

However, they will know it's a pressure cooker situation and it can only be held on for so long. The line between mass panic and mass fear is a very thin one.

I think if these measures get 80% conformity, they will have to review it on a daily basis and see where we are after 2-3 weeks. That in effect is the 14-day isolation period the government were seeking in order to give the NHS a break.
 

zantarous

Well-known Member
I am amazed that people aren't seeing the pleas of the doctors in Italy or the patients sleeping on the floor in over run Spanish hospitals and still saying well this lock down is a bit much, not worth crashing the economy over etc.

It just highlights the selfishness of currency society that the economy should be put ahead of actual real people. Just watch America they are in the road to actual carnage over there.
 

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