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Coronavirus talk - are people going over the top?

richp007

Distinguished Member
But at some point the cure is going to be worse than the disease - the forecast from the other day was that a drop in GDP of around 7% will lead to more deaths than the virus.

I see all the arguments but the context seems to be missing
No what you're missing is the part about being human and not just letting people die for the economy.

You're sounding more like Trump every day. Has he moved onto AVF as well as Twitter now?
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
The level of Government borrowing is now likely to hit £200bn in this next Financial Year. Probably even higher after this afternoons announcements. If we go into a long recession then it will be even worse.

After WW2 we were in debt for £21bn and it took us 61 years to pay it off.

The next 3 weeks are pivotal. Any longer and it leaves the generations to come with massive headaches and very hard times ahead. That's not just your children but your children's, children and beyond.

The pain in the immediate recession is unthinkable anyway. Come to think of it people and businesses can't really see past their finances in the next month right now. The news is equally full of people screaming on how to pay their bills and buy food for their families.

Being emotive is one thing but it doesn't take long for the reality to set in.
 
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Solomon Grundy

Distinguished Member
No what you're missing is the part about being human and not just letting people die for the economy.

You're sounding more like Trump every day. Has he moved onto AVF as well as Twitter now?
Don't we do that with non coronavirus related deaths? Haven't we always accepted 1500 people die every day from accidents and illnesses and it didn't get in the way of the economy? Hundreds of thousands of peoples lives are going down the sh*tter for the sake of comparably few who will die from this Coronavirus, many of whom would have died before the end of the year anyway. Proportionately, our society can absorb and deal with these additional deaths without it affecting our entire way of life. I agree that we should try and knock it on the head for a month or so but more than that and we should take a balanced view for the future of society as we know it.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
Some key points made there that balance and perhaps longer term outweigh the emotive points people are raising.

The country is at a standstill in order to allow those potentially vulnerable ones a heightened opportunity of survival in the next few weeks. All in the hope that they pull through. No one can guarantee that they will. We all hope they do. That level of moral obligation is correct and what makes our country great but unfortunately it cannot forever continue. In a world of finite resources and unlimited demand there comes a crunch.

It's not that no one cares. The people that have died (including the young ones referred to earlier) have died in hospital. Which goes to prove there is nothing a hospital can really do for you. There is no cure other than provide 'care' right now (and forseeable future at least 18mths) and hope you pull through.

Secondly, throwing doctors and nurses into the front line like this for too much longer is like throwing them to the lions. You can't win this pandemic through a war of attrition like that.

If one doctor gets sick, they replace with another but where is the next doctor/nurse coming from after that ? There isn't and there won't be. We are down to junior doctors and volunteers already. Many (if not all) of these key workers are fearing for their own lives and families. We are asking these people to sacrifice the unthinkable.

Hence, this current approach is firefighting on a very short term and short sighted scale.

If it continues for too long you will decimate both the National Health Service and the economy. If the economy goes bust you will have no meaningful National Health Service to speak of.

We need to see out these weeks then immediately ramp the tests up ASAP and get them out there and get this economy re-started. The key is Identifying who have already had it. That will give us the context of where we are on the curve and how to deal with it sensibly on a moving scale forwards.

Emotive points can only resonate for a short period and that is the unfortunate reality of this or any situation. Nobody wanted this, it is what it is.
 

Solomon Grundy

Distinguished Member
We need a universal based income scheme, we need to limit the amount of wealth any one individual can accumulate. These are the answers not carrying on as we are where people have to worry about paying the bills or getting sick and dying.
This is impossible.
 

doug56hl

Distinguished Member
Don't we do that with non coronavirus related deaths? Haven't we always accepted 1500 people die every day from accidents and illnesses and it didn't get in the way of the economy? Hundreds of thousands of peoples lives are going down the sh*tter for the sake of comparably few who will die from this Coronavirus, many of whom would have died before the end of the year anyway. Proportionately, our society can absorb and deal with these additional deaths without it affecting our entire way of life. I agree that we should try and knock it on the head for a month or so but more than that and we should take a balanced view for the future of society as we know it.
Got any proof for that?
 

Stevieboy_uk

Active Member
Don't we do that with non coronavirus related deaths? Haven't we always accepted 1500 people die every day from accidents and illnesses and it didn't get in the way of the economy? Hundreds of thousands of peoples lives are going down the sh*tter for the sake of comparably few who will die from this Coronavirus, many of whom would have died before the end of the year anyway. Proportionately, our society can absorb and deal with these additional deaths without it affecting our entire way of life. I agree that we should try and knock it on the head for a month or so but more than that and we should take a balanced view for the future of society as we know it.
That's exactly what a BBC journalist wrote early on Saturday morning (takes a while to open as its on the wayback machine), take note of the "Would these people be dying anyway" comment about halfway down!

https://web.archive.org/web/20200321030717/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

A few hours later the article was changed as obviously someone in the BBC didn't think the article was sensationalist enough:

What we don't know about coronavirus deaths

They also moved it off the front page very quickly. I thought I was imagining what I had read when I first went back to the article and saw they had changed the headline.

I am starting to despise the BBC!
 

Solomon Grundy

Distinguished Member

doug56hl

Distinguished Member
It's not that no one cares. The people that have died (including the young ones referred to earlier) have died in hospital. Which goes to prove there is nothing a hospital can really do for you. There is no cure other than provide 'care' right now (and forseeable future at least 18mths) and hope you pull through.
In the links I gave two out of the three are reported to have died at home. Which goes to prove there is nothing a home can really do for you.

The outcome could well have been different if they had been in hospital receiving appropriate care. In that age group most people placed in ICU survive.
 

Tempest

Distinguished Member
Some key points made there that balance and perhaps longer term outweigh the emotive points people are raising.

The country is at a standstill in order to allow those potentially vulnerable ones a heightened opportunity of survival in the next few weeks.
The thing is, this is fundamentally not true.

Office workers & shop workers are not working.
Teachers and various others. Mostly places the public go to.

But millions of "normal" blue collar workers, who work in factories and other such jobs are still told to come in, and have to go to work if their boss says so.
If they don't go to work, they can have disciplinary action taken against you.

The government and media is ignoring these millions of people going to work as normal.
The just saying only go to work if it's ESSENTIAL.
And speak about nurses, police etc.
The media have talked about building workers.
But they are ignoring all the others.
Like myself, I have to go to work, exactly as normal as if nothing is any different.

We're being ignored.
 

doug56hl

Distinguished Member
Many of the deaths are "underlying health issues" and age related...plus this does raise questions.

Underlying health issues was not the cause of death.
4.4 million people have diabetes in the UK. This is one of the underlying health issues associated with covid-19 mortality. That 4.4 million people are not expected to die this year regardless....

BTW if trying to provide proof please choose something which is not behind a paywall.
 

Solomon Grundy

Distinguished Member
The thing is, this is fundamentally not true.

Office workers & shop workers are not working.
Teachers and various others. Mostly places the public go to.

But millions of "normal" blue collar workers, who work in factories and other such jobs are still told to come in, and have to go to work if their boss says so.
If they don't go to work, they can have disciplinary action taken against you.

The government and media is ignoring these millions of people going to work as normal.
The just saying only go to work if it's ESSENTIAL.
And speak about nurses, police etc.
The media have talked about building workers.
But they are ignoring all the others.
Like myself, I have to go to work, exactly as normal as if nothing is any different.

We're being ignored.
But how many of you have been struck down with the illness and needed intensive care so far?
 

Solomon Grundy

Distinguished Member
Underlying health issues was not the cause of death.
4.4 million people have diabetes in the UK. This is one of the underlying health issues associated with covid-19 mortality. That 4.4 million people are not expected to die this year regardless....
No, but some people will die this year from diabetes related complications and not all people with diabetes will die of the coronavirus.
 

Tempest

Distinguished Member
But how many of you have been struck down with the illness and needed intensive care so far?
Country wide, no idea, I think we are the low class "workers" that are expendable, and working as usual.
Personally at my workplace we're pretty much all waiting for someone to get it and pass it around, as the 2 meter rule is impossible to maintain at all times, and you can't wash your hands everything you touch something as you'd be doing it 100's of times a day.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
The thing is, this is fundamentally not true.

Office workers & shop workers are not working.
Teachers and various others. Mostly places the public go to.

But millions of "normal" blue collar workers, who work in factories and other such jobs are still told to come in, and have to go to work if their boss says so.
If they don't go to work, they can have disciplinary action taken against you.

The government and media is ignoring these millions of people going to work as normal.
The just saying only go to work if it's ESSENTIAL.
And speak about nurses, police etc.
The media have talked about building workers.
But they are ignoring all the others.
Like myself, I have to go to work, exactly as normal as if nothing is any different.

We're being ignored.
Guidance for employers and businesses on coronavirus (COVID-19)

For the uk it clearly states they want all workers to keep working unless in the categories already told to shut

In Scotland however
Coronavirus (COVID-19): business and social distancing guidance - gov.scot
anything non essential have to shut

Is England going to be happy while Scotland sits on their hands for a month? (and paying for it)
 

zantarous

Well-known Member
This is impossible.
Traveling faster then light that's impossible, traveling back in time that's impossible. UBI needs a mindset change in society. There is no reason why 0.01% of people should control 99% of the wealth. The legacy of this crisis will be far wider felt then just the economy, it's at this point that the capitalism stupid working for the masses.
 

Solomon Grundy

Distinguished Member
Country wide, no idea, I think we are the low class "workers" that are expendable, and working as usual.
Personally at my workplace we're pretty much all waiting for someone to get it and pass it around, as the 2 meter rule is impossible to maintain at all times, and you can't wash your hands everything you touch something as you'd be doing it 100's of times a day.
7,000 people every week are diagnosed with cancer and it will kill more people. A lot of cancers are preventable, many are curable and it is not contagious but there is still a random chance of getting it. We haven't stopped the world until a cure is found or the risks are minimised. So far you know nobody who has had it or has died from it...fair enough, it could be you...but also you could be diagnosed with any number of random terminal illnesses or even have an accident and die. Like I said, there should be a major short term concentrated effort to minimise the impact of this sh*tty virus but not at the overall cost to society we're currently looking at.
 

Pacifico

Distinguished Member
How are you getting this 2/3 figure that would have died?

Prof Neil Fergusons evidence to the Science and Technology Committee

"Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less."

Torygraph
 

Pacifico

Distinguished Member
No what you're missing is the part about being human and not just letting people die for the economy.

You're sounding more like Trump every day. Has he moved onto AVF as well as Twitter now?

Even for you that is a particularly daft statement. :rolleyes:

The NHS makes decisons every day on who lives and who dies based on the cost of saving them. Every year we have a Flu epidemic where we could save thousands from dying if we totally locked down the economy and enforced isolation - we dont because we consider the cost to the economy worse than the cost in lives.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
In the links I gave two out of the three are reported to have died at home. Which goes to prove there is nothing a home can really do for you.

The outcome could well have been different if they had been in hospital receiving appropriate care. In that age group most people placed in ICU survive.
The point is there is no miracle cure to save you. Hospital or home doesn't matter. There is no magic pill.

The argument is the same for the one that was in hospital. The doctors couldn't save her anyway....
 

JimmyMac

Distinguished Member
I honestly despair, sod it, can’t cure all cancers at the minute, why bother trying. Could use that money elsewhere in fairness :(
 

doug56hl

Distinguished Member
Prof Neil Fergusons evidence to the Science and Technology Committee

"Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less."


Torygraph
That was based on the predicted effects on the current shutdown working and the death toll being reduced to 20,000 from the 500,000 he predicted a week or so earlier. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB

This 2/3rds is just an estimate and so far one which is not based on evidence as the UK sample size of 550 deaths vs the now predicted 20,000 eventual deaths is too small to extrapolate from. It might be 1/2, might be 1/3rd.

On Radio 4 today he added that most of the people who were dying were already sick, potentially terminally ill, and would probably have died soon without the virus.

'Looking at the profile of deaths we see and looking at the expected mortality in those groups... about two thirds of people who are unfortunately affected by this virus are towards the very end of their lives anyhow, we estimate,' he said.

'I should say it still leaves a third, and we have heard cases of really quite healthy, young and, indeed, old people who have been affected and died because of this virus.

'I think this is important to bear in mind but really shouldn't affect the decisions we make.'

Old people – in their 70s, 80s and above – are the most at risk of developing severe cases of the coronavirus, statistics have shown.


 

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