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Coronavirus talk - are people going over the top?

kenshingintoki

Well-known Member
I am amazed that people aren't seeing the pleas of the doctors in Italy or the patients sleeping on the floor in over run Spanish hospitals and still saying well this lock down is a bit much, not worth crashing the economy over etc.

It just highlights the selfishness of currency society that the economy should be put ahead of actual real people. Just watch America they are in the road to actual carnage over there.

The scenes in Italy are heartbreaking.
 

ldoodle

Suspended
I am amazed that people aren't seeing the pleas of the doctors in Italy or the patients sleeping on the floor in over run Spanish hospitals and still saying well this lock down is a bit much, not worth crashing the economy over etc.
I'm amazed that people are so easily not giving the global economy the importance it needs, and in favour of the very few. Plus, Italy have a very weak one (amongst the weakest infact) so economically speaking the decision making process is not the same for us as it is for them.

It's not selfishness at all. I'm thinking of the 99% and not the 1%, which is totally the opposite of selfishness. As I said earlier, each action will always result in people dying.

Nobody is saying "zero lockdown", but equally 100% lockdown for everyone, even those with zero or little risk is way, way, way over the top.

And the 99% will suffer, along with the 1%.
 

zantarous

Well-known Member
That's ok though, a potentially ruined economy will only effect actual fake people.
Your pretty much coming across as a psychopath who has no empathy and is frothing at the mouth to watch people die. It's people like you that that do their utter most to ruine society for the masses. The fact that you are getting live updates and footage of the diabolical state of the world's hospitals but still bleating on about the economy is unbelievable.

We are all in this together, not just you. We are all affected by it all me, me, me from you.

I am going to burn through all my saving that I have been putting aside to by a home for years. I have been pretty much self isolating for years to save that money and now it's worth nothing. But it doesn't matter cause the whole world is screwed. Think of someone but yourself.
 

pae97

Standard Member
We can all agree that saving lives is a priority.

Unfortunately this is likely to come at a economic cost of probably £2-3 trillion in extra UK borrowing to get the UK economy back to where it was in December. We will be looking at 40-60% unemployment rate, insurance companies who have gone bust, house repossions at huge levels and probably the UK going bankrupt and having similar economic realities at Greece had imposed on them a few years ago inorder to borrow funds.

It will be an interesting few years that people have not realised as yet. At the moment it seems far off but the resentment towards the Government for doing this will grow once repossessions kick in. It is what fostered the growth of the far right in Germany after the 1929 economic crash or right wing populism after 2008 economic crash etc.
 

pae97

Standard Member
Pretty much, China will have fallen by 20%, Italy likely to be 20%, France, Germany 5% decline. US is down 3% without a lockdown.

World Economy will likely contract by 5-7% this year if and a big if this all finishes in the next 3 months.

If you think about it how many high street retailers will be back after this? At the moment my company turnover is down 80%, in 3 weeks as no companies are buying. I have enough in the business to fund for next 3 months, after that I will have to get a business loan to stay afloat. Up until this point we were highly profitable, cash generative and looking at expanding. Now I have to loan cash to try and resurrect the business.
 

domtheone

Distinguished Member
Cancel all new debt. Wipe the slate clean. Its not like any of it will ever be repaid.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
We can all agree that saving lives is a priority.

Unfortunately this is likely to come at a economic cost of probably £2-3 trillion in extra UK borrowing to get the UK economy back to where it was in December. We will be looking at 40-60% unemployment rate, insurance companies who have gone bust, house repossions at huge levels and probably the UK going bankrupt and having similar economic realities at Greece had imposed on them a few years ago inorder to borrow funds.

It will be an interesting few years that people have not realised as yet. At the moment it seems far off but the resentment towards the Government for doing this will grow once repossessions kick in. It is what fostered the growth of the far right in Germany after the 1929 economic crash or right wing populism after 2008 economic crash etc.
Saving lives would be the case in any civilised and compassionate society and so it should be. It's the reason why we have a National Health Service.

To touch upon your other valid points, the long and short of it is, everything has a price. There is never any escaping that, whichever way you try sugar coat it.

If the economic brakes are applied for too long then it will cause irrepairable damage to the economy. Prior to this directive we have already seen the damage done to the travel & hospitality sector in the space of a week. That is not an area where they will be able to recoup what has currently been lost. It's gone.

Ultimately if the economy keeps going down the pan then who will pay for the NHS going forward? The health service itself will suffer. So, emotive points aside, the economy will not be allowed to go bust at any cost. Life always goes on.

The Govt think tank would have already thought about this and have simply decided now is the time to hit the panic button and hit it hard. 3 weeks short sharp pain and then re-assess.

The 3 weeks is key. At that point we would have all been through the 14 day isolation period regardless. If we get 80% compliance then whether you are lucky enough to not get it or if you are asymptomatic or show mild symptoms then that 3 weeks will help to rule 80% of the population out of the equation. So that would cover the potential 5 day incubation period and the 7 days for your immune system to get over it. As well as shield the vulnerable and shield the NHS.

Those that get infected 8 out of 10 people should get over it with nothing more than mild symptoms at worst.

The remaining people who fall into the severe or needing further help category can then be managed far more easily. Those people will always need help irrespective. Using this approach it simply allows the NHS to have the capacity to cope with them as well as all the others that are ill from all the many other illnesses that exist in the world.

The virus will not have been eradicated at that stage. However, we should hopefully be in a more manageable situation by then.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
So there is further research released from the Oxford University today that suggests over half the population may have been infected already.

This virus may have been spreading since January already. This would make sense to me as I understand through key workers who have looked back and who themselves had fever symptoms and breathing difficulties back in Dec and January.

If this research is true it means half the population may have already built up significant herd immunity already through unrecognised spread and exposure of the illlness.

Meaning very much that this horse has already long bolted.
 
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Saldawop

Distinguished Member
So, all those staying at home and following the restrictions to the letter are all good.
3 weeks later they come out of isolation and mix with all those people that have had to go out to work, like me, as it seems to be essential that people have skips to do their spring cleaning whilst at home! . Surely it just starts again?
 

Pacifico

Distinguished Member
So, all those staying at home and following the restrictions to the letter are all good.
3 weeks later they come out of isolation and mix with all those people that have had to go out to work, like me, as it seems to be essential that people have skips to do their spring cleaning whilst at home! . Surely it just starts again?

Thats what everyone is waiting to see in China - now that they are reducing the lockdown is it going to spike again.
 

Sloppy Bob

Distinguished Member
Only if you think this will only be for 3 weeks.

The idea is to slow it down, not stop it, we can't stop it unless everybody quarantined themselves and I mean everybody.

As we go out restricted shopping, mix with family in the same household who've been at work, break the "guidelines" we're going to catch it, just do it as a level that hopefully, the NHS can cope with as the scientists, computer modellers and government, etc, see how things go the three week period may be extended and even possibly lifted a bit at some point for a period of time to let the disease spread a bit again before locking us down, or if it's going the wrong way turning our lockdown into martial law.

China has contained it, for the moment, due to draconian measures I doubt our government could stomach so it will be a better test of your theory which I don't think is wrong.
 

Pacifico

Distinguished Member
I see the government are working on the assumption that the restrictions could remain in place for the rest of the year - god knows how bad the slump will be after that.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
So, all those staying at home and following the restrictions to the letter are all good.
3 weeks later they come out of isolation and mix with all those people that have had to go out to work, like me, as it seems to be essential that people have skips to do their spring cleaning whilst at home! . Surely it just starts again?
No, what the research is saying is that over the half the population has already been infected and had the infection since January. They've already been through it, been and done it.

Meaning they have already built up the Herd immunity which in turn means over half the population sat at home right now may not need to be at home.

This is why the importance of testing. Otherwise we are left with the rather crude approach the Govt is having to use right now.

In order to treat the people right, you need to know who to treat......
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
And to add to that the Director of the National Infection Service at Public Health England has now advised MP's that 3.5m tests will be available to frontline workers to determine if they have the virus or have had it already.

These tests will soon also be available through the likes of Boots in the near future as well.

The costs of the tests will be far far cheaper than continuing to keep this country in lockdown. I would have thought incomparable.

More importantly the results will allow people to act in a more informed manner on who to treat and watch out for. A far more sensible approach.

I would imagine the best strategy based on this is that we will continue the lockdown for 2-3weeks by which time there should be tests more readily available as well. This could then could sensibly start to open up the lockdown.

We might begin to get some clarity sooner than we think. Let's hope so.
 
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Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
Ww2 was much worse than this..
Lo and behold the economy recovered.
However it is becoming apparent what parts of society are actually productive and what parts are surplus or only fruitful during times of economic stability and growth.
 

Ekko Star

Distinguished Member
The economy is a far more developed and complex beast than it ever was. The UK is firmly a tertiary and quaternary economy. There is nothing surplus as everything fruitful contributes to the stability of the economy.

The debt from WW2 was £21bn and it took us 61 years to pay it off.

Hence the complexity of this lockdown and the eyewatering numbers has much further reaching consequences.
 
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astirling

Well-known Member
And to add to that the Director of the National Infection Service at Public Health England has now advised MP's that 3.5m tests will be available to frontline workers to determine if they have the virus or have had it already.

These tests will soon also be available through the likes of Boots in the near future as well.

The costs of the tests will be far far cheaper than continuing to keep this country in lockdown. I would have thought incomparable.

More importantly the results will allow people to act in a more informed manner on who to treat and watch out for. A far more sensible approach.

I would imagine the best strategy based on this is that we will continue the lockdown for 2-3weeks by which time there should be tests more readily available as well. This could then could sensibly start to open up the lockdown.

We might begin to get some clarity sooner than we think. Let's hope so.
the issue with this is that with these tests we’ll start to see far more people going about their business because they’re immune. How then do you manage those that aren’t immune. Many of these people will either start to go outside simply because they can....or in the mistaken belief that everyone they encounter outside will have already had the virus.
 

zantarous

Well-known Member
This is an interesting read, here is a guy who is relatively healthy, runs a sub 7 minute mile, who details his journey from getting sick until he is hospitalised.


According to the Reddit post I got this from he is getting worse and is now on supplemental oxygen.
 

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