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Coronavirus talk - are people going over the top?

Gagdet88

Active Member
I have had some issues on some forums people banning me over chatting about it as I don’t believe the hype. Are people not going over the top? We are all allowed an opinion I feel people should respect your views.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
Even Zarf's? :devil::D
 

bardel

Well-known Member
Have to agree Gadget. Practically jaw dropped when I discovered there was a dedicated Coronavirus forum on here, let alone then noticing it's got it's own headline link at the top of the page!?!?

Not saying that this virus is a hoax, for sure it's real, but there seems to be soooo much panic currently? No toilet roll, no hand sanitiser, no kids paracetamol. What was everyone doing before ***?

Current social trends and technology-led spread of (mis)information are hitting us in all directions, and seems to be overriding the reality of the situations? Where are the stats on how many confirmed cases have survived, barely a mention of it... As I understand it, nowhere near the impact of standard influenza?

Two years of Brexit uncertainty (which I might add isn't over yet, but no longer in the headlines) and now 2 years of Covid19 uncertainty maybe? Whatever will be set fire to next?

I appreciate that people are scared and I'm sure for some it's closer to home than others, but we need re-assurance with facts not headline grabbing scare messages. Here's hoping that the situation gets under control, from both a media and medical perspective so that we can return to some normality.

Can't believe I've let myself reply to this, I come here to get away from the doldrums of life... I'm off to climb the ladder out of this hole before I dig it any deeper.
 

AdamskiP

Active Member
Wow. I genuinely cannot understand how people can’t see that this is going to be a global crisis on a catastrophic scale.
It’s like they are looking at Italy going “nah not us bruv” . China followed a very distinct pattern, a trajectory of infection and death that was only stopped by the most draconian methods seen since the war. Italy (and Iran who are truly fecked) has followed the exact same growth line, only some weeks behind and Germany, Netherlands, Spain and France are all on that exact same curve again. The UK will be a bit behind that, mainly due to some good testing in the beginning and being an island but we will soon catch up.
I have no doubt that the death rate of Covid19 is under 1%, purely because of the amount of asymptomatic cases that aren’t getting counted BUT 1% is still enough to bring ANY health service to its knees if enough people get infected and the one thing we do know about this thing is it’s damn infectious. The amount of people needing full ICU is around 5%

We (the UK) will be in full lockdown by the end of April at the latest. I can see Spain and France going that route by the end of next week.

This is all without thinking what it will do to the economy. The stock market is already plummeting and so many businesses that are teetering on the edge will not survive with no income (like restaurants and bars) or no staff (as they are all recovering).

This won’t be the end of us at all, the world will keep turning and for most healthy people they’ll either not get it at all or get mildly sick BUT this will affect everyone in some way.
 

bardel

Well-known Member
Wow. I genuinely cannot understand how people can’t see that this is going to be a global crisis on a catastrophic scale.
And this is exactly the kind of panic I was referring to... Have you re-read your words?

things are seldom black and white, try to look at things in a wider perspective not in isolation.

this link I think provides what seems to me to be a fair summary of the situation from both stand points...

 

doug56hl

Distinguished Member
And this is exactly the kind of panic I was referring to... Have you re-read your words?

things are seldom black and white, try to look at things in a wider perspective not in isolation.

this link I think provides what seems to me to be a fair summary of the situation from both stand points...

Take a look at the death rate by age or by underlying health conditions here How deadly is the coronavirus? That is dated a month later than the article you linked to which was written before what is happening in Italy was seen. Italy Coronavirus: 9,172 Cases and 463 Deaths - Worldometer

Also look at Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

What makes it worse than flu is that the elderly and high risks groups can be vaccinated against flu (albeit with varying effectiveness rates). There is no vaccine available currently for SARS-CoV-2.
 
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bardel

Well-known Member
And quoted from that same page...

“It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization”

Furthermore, looking at “Worldometers” data (your choice not mine)...

  • Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
  • This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.

A wide range quoted there, but at least that’s something reflected on the WHO site.

so yes the mortality rate is about double that of seasonal flu, but the number of infections doesn’t appear to be close to typical flu.

In regards to the flu vaccine, I always find it bewildering how they don’t know if it will work each year because of differences in flu strain. Is Covid19 a strain of flu? Yes there is a supposed vaccine, but seemingly not a silver bullet and yet still flu deaths and infections are higher.

I’m not saying there’s no cause for concern people, just the general panic regarding it and the actions taken (heck, even a dedicated forum and headline link in the navigation of an AV site) seem disproportionate to the reality of the situation.

And it seems that the panic buying is creating other unnecessary issues such as parents not being able to buy Calpol, a paracetamol based child’s medication, for their sick children because shelves have been cleared by stock piling panic driven society.
 

Sloppy Bob

Distinguished Member
And Italy.... just an overreaction from a bunch of posturing government types.

Hospitals overrun at double capacity, country in lockdown.

It's fine, they've just got the sniffles.
 

bardel

Well-known Member
Italy’s numbers are included in the stats, just like China.
I can’t remember the last time hospitals weren’t overrun, there’s always a bed shortage.
Your reply suggests that I’m arrogant to the situation. I’m not, just looking for the wood in the trees.
Hopefully the lockdown will help, in the era of the Black Plague I would have thought so, these days with our mobility and without a globally universal enforcement, probably not as much.
This happens every time there is something new, eg SARS and dare I mention HIV. No-one understood that at the time, yet I don’t recall the panic shelve clearing back then. Today there 41.5m infected with HIV, but it’s not in the news?
The front pages of a number of pages have large text telling us to stay at home if we have a cold, yet this is not an instruction from the government yet, only a possibility. Why are the papers allowed to over hype this in this particular manner?
 

Bigfingers

Distinguished Member
It would be interesting to see the correlation between people glued to social media sites and panic buying pasta, toilet rolls and sanitiser.
Meanwhile in the real world, people go about their business, taking sensible precautions and only buying what they need in a sensible fashion.
 

mij

Well-known Member
It will be handy having a lock down/martial law already in place when the next financial meltdown finally happens, this might even be a very handy look over there for the financial wizards to use as the blame for the next financial crisis :)

Off out to buy some tin foil for my new hat now :D
 

Gagdet88

Active Member
Everybody says UK and France ect are weeks behind Italy we don’t know that for fact yet pure speculation. The warmer weather may slow this down in time for winter when the vaccine will be fast tracked (Human trials next month)
 
There won't be a vaccine in 2020. Even if one passes human trials, there isn't manufacturing capacity to create enough for the global population.
 

The_Wierd

Well-known Member
Italy in lock down? I can book a flight to Milan for £40, as we speak 🤔
That’s because of our own government’s inaction in updating the travel advice.
 

The_Wierd

Well-known Member

Sloppy Bob

Distinguished Member
With a massive effort, at great financial cost, it's being contained.

Whether, in the West, we have the politicians with the willpower and a public that will listen and do what is needed to follow suit remains to be seen if it comes to that.
 

Dancook

Distinguished Member
And quoted from that same page...

“It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization”

Furthermore, looking at “Worldometers” data (your choice not mine)...

  • Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
  • This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
I feel like people are being short sighted when it comes to the potential of the virus, versus the flu for which we have vaccinations and resistance, when it comes to human life.

Just because the current death toll is low it has the potential to increase rapidly.


Left unchecked we can expect the Coronavirus to grow exponentially.

Under exponential growth 500 cases grow to more than 1 million cases after 11 doubling times. And after 10 more doubling times it would be 1 billion cases.

Based on the global WHO data up to and including 7th March 2020, the doubling time for COVID-19 is as follows:
Doubling time for the global number of cases (including China): 21 days
Doubling time for the global number of cases (excluding China): 4 days

If left unchecked, starting with 500 and with it doubling every 4 days the whole planet could be infected in 100 days.

With the current ~3.4% fatality rate (unsure if inundated health services will see it rise)

If everyone in Europe contracts the virus, approximately 25 million people will die.

If everyone in the World contracts the virus, approximately 256 million people will die.



Worst case scenario perhaps as we will have imposed quarantines across the world to prevent the speed at which it's currently spreading, but it is needed.
 

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